Coal — A Complete Market Guide (2026)

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 16:00:00 +0200

Data as of 6 July 2026. Prices are quoted as multi-year and full-year averages, not a single day’s snapshot, so this report stays useful over time. Reserves, production splits, balances and historical series are estimates from agency data, rounded for clarity. This report is for information only and was prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Coal is the fuel the modern world was built on — and the one it keeps declaring dead while burning more of it than ever. In 2025 the coal market set another all-time record: 8.85 billion tonnes consumed, more than every other mined commodity in this series combined, generating a third of the world’s electricity and the coke behind most of its steel. It is also the most polarised market in commodities: written off by Western capital, priced for extinction, and yet — as 2022’s energy crisis proved, when its price quadrupled — still the system’s fuel of last resort. This report is the free, big-picture primer on how the coal market actually works — thermal versus coking, the seaborne trade and its chokepoints, who mines it and who quietly finances it, and what actually drives the cycle. For the company-level data behind the charts — every producer screened by production, reserves and cost — go to Metal Pilot.

Glencore (GLEN) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.5]

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 23 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Glencore plc’s 2025 Annual Report (year ended 31 December 2025), including the segment note and the production report; reserves and resources are as reported under the JORC Code. Market data is as of the LSE close on 21 August 2026. All financial figures are US dollars (Glencore’s reporting currency); the share price and market capitalisation are in pence sterling (GBp), the London primary-listing trading currency, and per-share fair values are converted to pence at US$1.35 = £1. Price deck: base copper US$4.00/lb, thermal (energy) coal US$100/t, steelmaking coal US$180/t, zinc US$1.25/lb, nickel US$7.50/lb — rounded-down trailing averages; bear copper US$3.00/lb; bull US$5.00/lb; against spot copper ~US$4.6/lb; 9% real after-tax discount rate. Rating: ★★★½ (3.5/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → a genuinely diversified major with a copper-led growth story, a coal cash engine and a one-of-a-kind marketing franchise, but dragged on quality by cost position, DRC/Colombia jurisdiction, a coal-heavy ESG profile and a conduct legacy — and, after a ~43% rally in 2026, trading at ~7.8× EBITDA and above a sum-of-the-parts struck on rounded-down prices. Refreshed on each half-year/annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Coal on Metal Pilot Blog

Coal — A Complete Market Guide (2026)

Glencore (GLEN) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.5]