Company Analysis on Metal Pilot Blog

Strathcona Resources (SCR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Wed, 09 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 9 September 2026. Fundamentals are from Strathcona Resources’ fiscal-2025 Annual Report (year ended 31 December 2025, dated 11 March 2026) and the Q2 2026 results and interim financial statements (released 11 August 2026: record free cash flow of C$296 million, production 117,022 boe/d, net debt down to C$1.93 billion at 30 June 2026), including the year-end NI 51-101 reserves report. Market data reflects the 8 September 2026 close (see §10.1). Price deck: base WTI US$70/bbl — the twelve-month trailing average of US$75.87 leaned to the lower price of the fixed US$60–100 grid — with the WTI–WCS Hardisty differential held at US$12.00/bbl and no spot deck carried (§7). Rating: ★★★★, Solid. Value read: Modestly overvalued (wide band) as of 9 Sep 2026. Refreshed on the next quarterly report or a material event. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Cenovus Energy (CVE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.8]

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 8 September 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Durable structure — segments, reserves, netbacks, refining capacity, management — comes from Cenovus Energy’s 2025 Annual Report (fiscal year ended 31 December 2025); reserves are effective 31 December 2025, evaluated under Canadian NI 51-101 and the SEC 20-F. The dated market layer reflects the completed acquisition of MEG Energy (closed 13 November 2025) and Cenovus’s Second Quarter 2026 results (released 29 July 2026, its “best quarter ever”): the MEG oil-sands barrels and ~143.9 million shares issued for them are in the year-end figures, 2026 guidance was raised to 970–1,010 Mboe/d, and net debt fell to C$5.4 billion at 30 June 2026 after a strong first half. Financials are in Canadian dollars (Cenovus’s reporting currency); the share price is in Canadian dollars (TSX primary listing, also NYSE), at C$1.3784/US$ (Bank of Canada, 8 September 2026). Market data is as of the 8 September 2026 close (the NYSE close of US$33.19 at that rate). Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → Fairly priced: a genuinely long-life, low-decline integrated with a sector-leading ~27-year reserve life and a real capital-return machine, now trading at roughly its net asset value after a strong run and rapid deleveraging, with the market pricing WTI close to the through-cycle base. Price deck: base WTI US$70/bbl — the representative 12-month trailing average (US$75.87) snapped to the fixed US$60–100 grid and leaned to the lower grid price — with the full grid as the scenario set (bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 / extreme bull US$100); heavy oil sands crude realised ~80% of C$ WTI in 2025, against a WTI–WCS Hardisty benchmark differential of US$11.13/bbl; Brent-linked offshore; a mid-cycle refining crack; 8% real discount rate, the convention for a large-cap, long-life, investment-grade producer; no spot deck. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Uranium Royalty Corp (UROY) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 8 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from New URC’s first Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 30 April 2026, filed 28 July 2026 under new SEC filer status) and the closing disclosures for the Sweetwater Transaction, which completed on 27 July 2026. Market data — share price, market capitalisation and enterprise value — is as of the 4 September 2026 Nasdaq close; the post-close share count is the one disclosed directly in SEC filings (see Section 1). Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Overvalued (wide band) → a good business at a price the filings do not support; the market prices soda ash near US$206 per short ton, above any annual average of the last five years. Price deck used in the valuation: soda ash US$140 per short ton FOB Wyoming, run across a US$100–180 grid, with uranium held as the secondary deck at US$90/lb U₃O₈ — Section 7 explains why the grid is built on soda ash rather than uranium, what uranium is worth per rung, and why no spot deck is carried. All figures are US dollars unless marked otherwise (A$ for the Langer Heinrich royalty rate). Refreshed on each annual report and on material events — for this name, the next is the first post-Sweetwater quarterly, which should carry the pro forma balance sheet this analysis has had to build. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.5]

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Reserves, the standardized measure, unit costs and the audited statements are from Canadian Natural’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (year ended 31 December 2025); production, net debt, guidance and capital are from the 2026 Second Quarter Results, reported 6 August 2026. Market data — share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value and analyst targets — is as of the 4 September 2026 close. All figures are Canadian dollars, converted where needed at C$1.3840 per US$1.00 (Bank of Canada, 4 September 2026). Rating: ★★★★½ (4.5/5), High quality — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → a best-in-class reserve base that has re-rated ahead of itself; at C$69.78 the price implies a flat WTI of about US$77/bbl. Price deck used in the valuation: base WTI US$70/bbl — the twelve-month trailing average of US$75.87 leaned to the lower price of the fixed US$60–100 grid, because the window carries the March–May 2026 Middle East spike — with every grid price run as a scenario (bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 / extreme bull US$100); 8% real discount rate; no spot deck is carried. Refreshed on the next annual report or a material event. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Devon Energy (DVN) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.1]

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot of the combined Devon Energy — the all-stock merger of equals with Coterra Energy (agreed 1 Feb 2026, closed ~7 May 2026), which reported its first combined quarter on 4 August 2026. Operating fundamentals (production, reserves, standardized measure) remain on the pro-forma FY2025 / year-end-2025 basis from the Devon/Coterra joint proxy statement, refined by the combined company’s first results; per-basin detail is from Devon’s FY2025 10-K. Market data — share price, market cap, enterprise value, net debt and analyst targets — is as of the 4 September 2026 close. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → a top-tier operator priced ahead of its reserves: watch for a better entry. Price deck used in the valuation: base WTI US$70/bbl — the twelve-month trailing average of US$75.87 leaned to the lower price of the fixed US$60–100 grid, because the window carries the March–May 2026 Hormuz spike — with every grid price run as a scenario (bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 / extreme bull US$100); Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu; 10% discount rate; no spot deck is carried. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Diamondback Energy (FANG) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Diamondback’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results (3 August 2026); market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of the 4 September 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Overvalued (wide band) → a great company at a rich price: watch for a better entry. Price deck used in the valuation: base WTI US$70/bbl — the twelve-month trailing average of US$75.87 leaned to the lower price of the fixed US$60–100 grid, because the window carries the March–May 2026 Hormuz spike — with every grid price run as a scenario (bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 / extreme bull US$100); Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu; 10% discount rate; no spot deck is carried. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

EOG Resources (EOG) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.7]

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from EOG’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025), the Q4/FY2025 results (24 February 2026) and the Q2 2026 results (4 August 2026); the valuation and market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) were refreshed to the 6 September 2026 close. Rating: ★★★★½ (4.7/5), High quality — Modestly overvalued (wide band) on a mid-cycle deck → priced for a firmer oil deck than the US$70 base. Price deck (WTI grid US$60–100, version 2026-09): bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 / extreme bull US$100 (the full grid as the scenario set); Henry Hub base US$3.00/MMBtu; the EIA’s US$69/bbl 2027 Brent forecast as a 0% cross-check; ~9% discount rate (low-cost, long-life, A-rated producer). Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Operating fundamentals, reserves and the standardized measure are from Occidental’s fiscal-2025 Form 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025); the balance sheet, production and guidance are from the second-quarter 2026 results, reported 5 August 2026. Market data — share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value and analyst targets — is as of the 4 September 2026 close. All figures are US dollars. Rating: ★★★★ (3.7/5), Solid — Overvalued (wide band) → the deleveraging worked and the shares re-rated past it; at US$60.04 the price implies a flat WTI of about US$100/bbl held forever. Price deck used in the valuation: base WTI US$70/bbl — the twelve-month trailing average of US$75.87 leaned to the lower price of the fixed US$60–100 grid, because the window carries the March–May 2026 Hormuz spike — with every grid price run as a scenario (bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 / extreme bull US$100); Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu; 10% discount rate; no spot deck is carried. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Ovintiv (OVV) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.6]

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Ovintiv’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q1 and Q2 2026 results (Q2 reported 23 July 2026); the valuation and market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) were refreshed to the 4 September 2026 close, on the current pro-forma portfolio (the NuVista Montney combination closed 3 February 2026, the Anadarko divestiture 9 April 2026). Rating: ★★★½ (3.6/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued (wide band) on a mid-cycle deck → the re-rating has largely happened; on a US$70 deck the blend sits modestly below the price, and crosses to fair value at roughly the current spot strip. Price deck (WTI grid US$60–100, version 2026-09): bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 / extreme bull US$100 (the full grid as the scenario set); Henry Hub base US$3.00/MMBtu (AECO at a discount); the EIA’s US$69/bbl 2027 Brent forecast as a 0% cross-check; ~10% discount rate. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Aris Mining (ARIS) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 September 2026. Fundamentals come from Aris Mining’s FY2025 Annual Information Form and audited financial statements, its interim statements and MD&A to 30 June 2026, and its named technical reports; market data is the 4 September 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Undervalued; against the blend below, the market is pricing roughly US$3,060/oz gold in perpetuity. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz — the representative trailing average snapped to the fixed US$3,000–5,000 grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$3,000 / bear US$3,500 / base US$4,000 / bull US$4,500 / deep bull US$5,000) and the LBMA analyst-survey deck as a 0% cross-check; no spot price, so the valuation does not age with the daily quote. All figures are US dollars. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Antero Resources (AR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Sun, 06 Sep 2026 19:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 6 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Antero’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results, released 29 July 2026; market data is as of the 4 September 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★½ (3.7/5), Solid — Overvalued (wide band) on a mid-cycle deck → the HG synergy is worth about one rating band, and the price already assumes more. Price deck used in the valuation: base Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu — the representative trailing average (3-month US$2.94, 6-month US$2.93) snapped to the fixed US$2.00–4.00 natural-gas grid — with every grid price run as a scenario, from US$2.00 to US$4.00, NGLs and oil held at their FY2025 realisations; the EIA’s US$3.49 (2027) forecast is a 0%-weight cross-check and no spot deck is carried. 10% discount rate, the E&P convention for a single-basin producer and the rate the standardized measure itself is struck at. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

CNX Resources (CNX) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Sun, 06 Sep 2026 19:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 6 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from CNX Resources’ fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025, filed 10 February 2026) and its Q2 2026 results, released 30 July 2026; market data is as of the 4 September 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Overvalued (wide band) on a mid-cycle gas deck → the operating base is the best in the basin and the price is not. Price deck used in the valuation: base Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu — the representative trailing average (3-month US$2.94, 6-month US$2.93) snapped to the fixed US$2.00–4.00 natural-gas grid — with every grid price run as a scenario, from US$2.00 to US$4.00; the EIA’s US$3.49 (2027) forecast is a 0%-weight cross-check and no spot deck is carried. 10% discount rate, sensitised 8–12%. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Range Resources (RRC) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.5]

Sun, 06 Sep 2026 18:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 6 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Range’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results, released 21 July 2026; market data is as of the 4 September 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★½, High quality — Overvalued (wide band) → the quality is real and the price already has it: you are buying duration at a US$4 gas deck. Price deck used in the valuation: base Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu — the representative trailing average (3-month US$2.94, 6-month US$2.93) snapped to the fixed US$2.00–4.00 natural-gas grid — with every grid price run as a scenario, from US$2.00 to US$4.00; the EIA’s US$3.49 (2027) forecast is a 0%-weight cross-check and no spot deck is carried, and the company’s own reserve report is struck at a US$3.39/mcf NYMEX benchmark. 10% discount rate, the E&P convention for a single-basin producer, sensitised at 8% and 12%. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Expand Energy (EXE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Sun, 06 Sep 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 6 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Expand Energy’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results, released after the close on 28 July 2026; market data is as of the 4 September 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Overvalued (wide band) on a mid-cycle gas deck → full and then some: the market already sees it. Price deck used in the valuation: base Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu — the representative trailing average (3-month US$2.94, 6-month US$2.93) snapped to the fixed US$2.00–4.00 natural-gas grid — with every grid price run as a scenario, from US$2.00 to US$4.00; the EIA’s US$3.49 (2027) forecast is a 0%-weight cross-check and no spot deck is carried, and the company’s own reserve report is struck at a US$3.39/mcf NYMEX benchmark. 10% discount rate, the E&P convention for a sub-ten-year reserve life and the rate the standardized measure itself is struck at. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Northern Star (NST) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.6]

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 2 September 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Northern Star’s FY2026 results (released 20 August 2026) and FY2025 Annual Report, the June 2026 quarterly activities report (29 July 2026) and the annual Resources and Reserves update for the 12 months to 31 March 2026 (3 June 2026). Market data is as of 2 September 2026. Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Modestly undervalued (wide band) → a re-rating candidate; the edge is the catalyst. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz — the representative trailing average on the fixed US$3,000–5,000 grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$3,000 to deep bull US$5,000); the 2027 consensus deck (~US$3,900/oz) as a 0%-weight cross-check, no spot deck. At A$1 = US$0.7133, the US$4,000 base is A$5,608/oz; NAV/share is published in Australian dollars, the trading currency, with the gold grid on its US$ axis. 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention. Figures are Australian dollars unless marked US$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

EQT Corporation (EQT) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.3]

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 4 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from EQT’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results, released 21 July 2026; market data is as of the 1 September 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★½, High quality — Overvalued (wide band) → great company, rich price: watch for a better entry. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed natural-gas grid): base Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu — the representative trailing average (the 3- and 6-month windows through August 2026 sit at ~US$2.93) on the fixed US$2.00–4.00 grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$2.00 to deep bull US$4.00) and the EIA’s US$3.49 (2027) forecast carried as a 0%-weight cross-check; realized price is Henry Hub less the ~US$0.37 Appalachian differential. 10% upstream discount rate, the E&P convention. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Whitecap Resources (WCP) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 09:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 2 September 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Whitecap’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (year ended 31 December 2025), its Q1 2026 results, its Q2 2026 results (three and six months ended 30 June 2026, released 29 July 2026, with the MD&A dated 28 July 2026) and its 7 July 2026 corporate presentation; market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of the 1 September 2026 close and will move. The commodity backdrop has softened from a Q2 2026 WTI average of US$92.79/bbl to a spot of ~US$78/bbl as the summer geopolitical premium unwound. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly overvalued at the US$70 mid-cycle deck (wide band); the market-implied deck sits at ~US$82/bbl → full, priced for a deck above mid-cycle. Price deck used in the valuation: mid-cycle base case US$70/bbl WTI (AECO ~C$2.00/GJ), with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 / extreme bull US$100; 10% nominal discount rate (the 8% real large-cap convention on the evaluator’s escalating deck); 1.38 CAD/USD; the NAV is the reserve evaluator’s 2P NPV after income tax; no spot deck is carried in the valuation. Company figures are in Canadian dollars (C$) unless marked US$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Albemarle (ALB) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.1]

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 26 August 2026. Price deck (lithium carbonate, US$/t LCE): base US$15,000/t, with the full grid — bear US$10,000 / base US$15,000 / bull US$20,000 / strong bull US$25,000 / extreme bull US$30,000 — as the scenario set; spot ~US$18,300/t (Benchmark, battery-grade, CIF Asia) as a cross-check. Method: sum-of-the-parts on mid-cycle segment EBITDA (no group DCF). Rating: ★★★★ Solid quality / Fairly valued (wide band) → priced about right — the lithium recovery is largely in the price. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. All figures in US dollars. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.3]

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 26 August 2026. Price deck (spodumene concentrate SC6, US$/t): base US$1,500/t, with the full grid — deep bear US$500 / bear US$1,000 / base US$1,500 / bull US$2,000 / deep bull US$2,500 — as the scenario set; spot ~US$1,400/t and the FY2026 realised US$1,700/t (SC6) as cross-checks. FX: A$1.00 = US$0.67 (USD/AUD 1.50). Method: sum-of-the-parts NAV on the Pilgangoora DCF plus a cash-flow and an asset cross-check. Rating: ★★★★½ High quality / Fairly valued (wide band) → priced for its quality — own it for the compounding. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. All figures in Australian dollars unless marked. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Mosaic (MOS) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.4]

Tue, 25 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 25 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Mosaic’s 2025 Form 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025) and its full-year 2025 results released 24 February 2026. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 24 August 2026 ($24.39). Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Modestly undervalued (wide band) → re-rating candidate: cheap, and the catalyst is free-cash-flow recovery. Price deck: the model’s swing input is Mosaic’s realised potash (MOP) net selling price, on a US$50/t grid — base US$250/t, bear US$200/t, deep bear US$150/t (the reversion case), bull US$300/t, deep bull US$350/t; a group target EV/EBITDA of 6.0× anchors the relative work. All figures are US dollars — Mosaic reports in USD. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Nutrien (NTR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 25 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Nutrien’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025) and its full-year 2025 results released 10 February 2026. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 24 August 2026 ($75.82). Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → priced about right: a best-in-class franchise trading close to fair value; the edge is a catalyst. Price deck: the model’s swing input is Nutrien’s own realised potash net selling price (a mine-gate netback, not the delivered retail price), on a US$50/t grid — base US$250/t (2025 realised ~US$252/t, held on the grid), bear US$200/t, deep bear US$150/t (the reversion case), bull US$300/t, deep bull US$350/t; a group target EV/EBITDA of 7.75× anchors the relative work. All figures are US dollars — Nutrien reports in USD. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Vale (VALE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.8]

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 15:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 23 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Vale S.A.’s 2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F (year ended 31 December 2025), including the production report and reserves statement; reserves are as reported under the SEC/JORC basis. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 21 August 2026; the analysis prices off the NYSE-listed VALE line in US dollars (1 ADR = 1 ordinary share), cross-referenced to the B3 ordinary line (VALE3). All figures are US dollars (Vale’s reporting currency). Price deck: base iron ore (62% Fe CFR) US$90/t, copper US$4.00/lb, nickel US$7.50/lb — rounded-down trailing averages; bear US$70/t iron; bull US$110/t iron; against spot ~US$100/t iron; 9% real after-tax discount rate. Rating: ★★★★ (3.8/5), Solid — Modestly undervalued (wide band) → the world’s largest, lowest-cost iron ore producer with a copper-doubling growth story and a ~9% dividend yield, trading below a conservative sum-of-the-parts on a Brazil-and-dam-legacy discount that a firm iron ore price and the Mariana settlement could narrow. Refreshed on each quarterly/annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Glencore (GLEN) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.5]

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 23 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Glencore plc’s 2025 Annual Report (year ended 31 December 2025), including the segment note and the production report; reserves and resources are as reported under the JORC Code. Market data is as of the LSE close on 21 August 2026. All financial figures are US dollars (Glencore’s reporting currency); the share price and market capitalisation are in pence sterling (GBp), the London primary-listing trading currency, and per-share fair values are converted to pence at US$1.35 = £1. Price deck: base copper US$4.00/lb, thermal (energy) coal US$100/t, steelmaking coal US$180/t, zinc US$1.25/lb, nickel US$7.50/lb — rounded-down trailing averages; bear copper US$3.00/lb; bull US$5.00/lb; against spot copper ~US$4.6/lb; 9% real after-tax discount rate. Rating: ★★★½ (3.5/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → a genuinely diversified major with a copper-led growth story, a coal cash engine and a one-of-a-kind marketing franchise, but dragged on quality by cost position, DRC/Colombia jurisdiction, a coal-heavy ESG profile and a conduct legacy — and, after a ~43% rally in 2026, trading at ~7.8× EBITDA and above a sum-of-the-parts struck on rounded-down prices. Refreshed on each half-year/annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Chevron (CVX) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.8]

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 13:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 23 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Chevron Corporation’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025) and its supplemental oil & gas reserve disclosures; market data is as of the NYSE close on 21 August 2026. All figures are US dollars — Chevron reports and is valued in USD, and its shares trade on the NYSE, so no FX conversion is needed. Price deck: spot WTI ~US$85/bbl (elevated by a Middle East risk premium in mid-2026), base case US$70/bbl WTI — the fixed Metal Pilot crude-grid rung nearest the rounded-down trailing average, with spike-elevated spot leaning down to the US$70 rung — and the full fixed grid as the scenario set: deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; Henry Hub gas ~US$3.50/MMBtu. Discount rate 10% (nominal, after-tax) — the oil & gas convention. Rating: ★★★★ (3.8/5), Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → the world-class #2 US major, transformed by the 2025 Hess deal (Guyana, the Bakken) and the completed Tengiz expansion, but with a shorter reserve life, more leverage and a weaker 2025 than ExxonMobil, and priced about right after a 39% oil rally. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

ExxonMobil (XOM) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.3]

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 23 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Exxon Mobil Corporation’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025) and its supplemental oil & gas reserve disclosures; market data is as of the NYSE close on 21 August 2026. All figures are US dollars — ExxonMobil reports and is valued in USD, and its shares trade on the NYSE, so no FX conversion is needed. Price deck: spot WTI ~US$85/bbl (elevated by a Middle East risk premium in mid-2026), base case US$70/bbl WTI — the fixed Metal Pilot crude-grid rung nearest the rounded-down trailing average, with the spike-elevated spot leaning down to the US$70 rung — and the full fixed grid as the scenario set: deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; Henry Hub gas ~US$3.50/MMBtu. Discount rate 10% (nominal, after-tax) — the oil & gas convention. Rating: ★★★★½ (4.3/5), High quality — Fairly valued (wide band) → the premier integrated major, priced for its quality and its Guyana/Permian growth: fair-to-full on a conservative US$70 deck, cheaper if oil holds its premium, with real downside if crude reverts toward the incentive price. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Fresnillo (FRES) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 20 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Fresnillo’s full-year 2025 results (year ended 31 December 2025, released 3 March 2026), the 2024 Annual Report and Accounts (for the governance, ESG and per-asset detail), the 2024 reserves & resources statement, and the FY2026 guidance issued with the 2025 results. Market data is as of the London close on 9 August 2026 (£28.64 / 2,864p). Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Overvalued → “Full”: a genuinely high-quality, net-cash silver major that the market has repriced for a permanently elevated silver-gold deck. Price deck (Table 3b rungs): base silver US$45/oz and gold US$4,000/oz, with the full grid (deep bear $15/$3,000 · bear $30/$3,500 · base $45/$4,000 · bull $60/$4,500 · deep bull $75/$5,000) as the scenario set; spot ~US$50/oz silver and ~US$4,050/oz gold as a cross-check; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention. All figures are US dollars (Fresnillo’s reporting currency); per-share values are shown in pence (GBX, the trading currency) at US$1.34/£. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Uranium Energy (UEC) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 20 August 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Uranium Energy Corp’s fiscal-2025 Form 10-K (year ended 31 July 2025) and the S-K 1300 mineral resource estimates in it (effective 31 July 2025). Market data — share price, market capitalisation and analyst targets — is as of the 20 August 2026 close. Rating: ★★★½ (3.7/5), Solid — Overvalued → the largest fully-permitted US uranium platform with a fortress balance sheet, but priced far above any asset-based value for a production ramp it has barely begun. Price deck (Table 3b uranium rungs): bear US$75/lb, base US$100/lb, bull US$125/lb; spot (~US$86/lb) and the long-term contract indicator (~US$86–90/lb) sit just below the base rung and carry as cross-checks. Discount rate 9% on the ramping US ISR assets. All figures are US dollars. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

NexGen Energy (NXE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 20 August 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from NexGen Energy’s 2025 Annual Information Form and the Rook I Feasibility Study Technical Report (mineral reserves effective 21 January 2021), together with the Interim Trend Update reflecting revised capital and operating costs as of 1 August 2024. Market data — the TSX and NYSE share price, market capitalisation and analyst targets — is as of the 19 August 2026 close. Rating: ★★★★ (4.2/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued → the best undeveloped uranium asset on earth, but the market already prices the mine NexGen has not yet built. Price deck (Table 3b uranium rungs): bear US$75/lb, base US$100/lb, bull US$125/lb; the long-term contract indicator (~US$86–90/lb) and spot (~US$86/lb) sit just below the base rung and carry as cross-checks. Discount rate 8% on the project NPV (the Feasibility Study convention), with development risk carried as an explicit risk-weighting on the NAV rather than a higher rate. All figures are Canadian dollars unless marked US$; the Feasibility Study assumes US$1.00 = C$1.33 (C$1.00 = US$0.75), and market data converts at the current US$1.00 = C$1.387 (19 Aug 2026). Refreshed on each material permitting, financing or construction milestone. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Kazatomprom (KAP) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 09:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 20 August 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Kazatomprom’s 2025 Integrated Annual Report and consolidated financial statements (year ended 31 December 2025) and the JORC-basis reserves and resources reported in it (effective 31 December 2025). Market data — the LSE GDR price, market capitalisation and enterprise value — is as of the 17 August 2026 close. Rating: ★★★★ (4.2/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued → the world’s largest and lowest-cost uranium producer, with net cash and a ~3.5% dividend, but the shares trade about 25% above a conservative discounted-cash-flow value struck at a Kazakhstan risk premium. Price deck (Table 3b uranium rungs): bear US$75/lb, base US$100/lb, bull US$125/lb; the long-term contract indicator (~US$86–90/lb) and spot (~US$86/lb) sit just below the base rung and carry as cross-checks. Discount rate 12% (an ~8–9% uranium-producer base plus a ~3–4% Kazakhstan country premium). All figures are US dollars. Kazatomprom reports in Kazakhstani tenge (KZT), converted here at the 2025 average of KZT 521.37/US$ for income-statement items and the 31 December 2025 close of KZT 502.57/US$ for balance-sheet items; market data converts at the current ~KZT 477/US$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.1]

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 19 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Freeport-McMoRan’s FY2025 Annual Report / 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025), the fourth-quarter 2025 results, and the reserves statement in the 10-K. Reserves are as reported at 31 December 2025 under SK-1300. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 15 August 2026; the analysis prices off the NYSE-listed FCX common shares in US dollars. Rating: ★★★★ (4.1/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → a genuinely tier-1, long-life copper franchise (Grasberg, Morenci, Cerro Verde) with 112 billion lb of copper reserves, but priced at roughly its net-asset value only if copper holds near a record ~$5.80/lb, against a conservative US$5/lb base deck. Price deck: base copper US$5.00/lb, with the fixed grid US$3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 /lb as the scenario set (Deep Bear / Bear / Base / Bull / Deep Bull); gold held at US$2,500/oz; against spot ~US$6.30/lb copper (COMEX, tariff-inflated) and Freeport’s ~US$4.40/lb 2025 realisation as cross-checks, with the ~US$4.00/lb long-run incentive price anchoring the deep-downside case; 9% real after-tax discount rate. Financials are in US dollars (Freeport’s reporting currency). Refreshed on each quarterly/annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Rio Tinto (RIO) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 19 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Rio Tinto’s FY2025 Annual Report and results (year ended 31 December 2025), the fourth-quarter 2025 production report, and the reserves & resources statement in the 2025 20-F. Reserves and resources are as reported at 31 December 2025 under the JORC Code / SK-1300. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 15 August 2026; the analysis prices off the NYSE-listed Rio Tinto plc ADR in US dollars (1 ADR = 1 plc ordinary share), and values the whole dual-listed group (Rio Tinto plc + Rio Tinto Limited, ~1.63 billion ordinary shares combined). Rating: ★★★★ (3.9/5), Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → the world’s second-largest diversified miner, anchored by the lowest-cost major iron ore business on earth, now with record copper earnings and a new lithium arm, but priced at ~6.7× trailing EV/EBITDA and roughly its sum-of-the-parts once iron ore is struck at a conservative US$90/t. Price deck: base iron ore (62% Fe CFR China) US$90/t, copper US$4.30/lb held at base across the iron-ore grid; the sensitivity grid runs the fixed iron-ore ladder US$70/80/90/100/110/t; against spot ~US$95/t iron and ~US$4.40/lb copper as cross-checks; 9% real after-tax discount rate for the producing base. Financials are in US dollars (Rio Tinto’s reporting currency). Refreshed on each half-year/annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Parex Resources (PXT) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.2]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 20:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Parex Resources Inc.’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025), its year-end 2025 reserves as evaluated by GLJ Petroleum Consultants under NI 51-101 (effective 31 December 2025), and the 2025 results. Market data is as of the TSX close on 11 August 2026. Financials are in US dollars (Parex’s reporting currency); the share price and market capitalisation are in Canadian dollars (TSX primary listing). Price deck: base Brent US$70/bbl, with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; against a spot of ~US$68/bbl. Parex prices off Brent-linked Colombian benchmarks (Vasconia/Castilla) — not WCS — so it carries no Canadian heavy differential. Discount rate 10% (evaluator basis), with a country-risk-adjusted 13% used in the base case. Rating: ★★★ (3.2/5), Average — Fairly valued → a genuinely cheap-on-multiples, cash-generative Colombian producer at ~3× earnings, ~3× EV/EBITDA and a 6% yield; but once Colombia risk is discounted into the reserve NAV, the base-case fair value sits only modestly above the price, so the read is fair rather than cheap — the discount is the market’s honest price for 100% Colombia exposure and several years of declining production. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Headwater Exploration (HWX) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Headwater Exploration Inc.’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025), its year-end 2025 reserves as evaluated by McDaniel & Associates under NI 51-101 (effective 31 December 2025), and the 2026 budget. Market data is as of the TSX close on 10 August 2026. Financials are in Canadian dollars (TSX primary listing). Price deck: base WTI US$70/bbl, with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; against a spot of ~US$66/bbl; WTI–WCS heavy differential ~US$13/bbl; AECO gas ~C$2.50/GJ; 10% after-tax discount rate. Rating: ★★★★ (4.2/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued → the highest-quality name in this Canadian intermediate set: a debt-free, high-return Clearwater heavy-oil growth story run by an elite management team, with waterflood decline mitigation and a 3%+ dividend — but the market knows it, and the shares trade at the richest multiple of the peer group. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Altius Minerals (ALS) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.3]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026 (market data at the 13 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Altius Minerals’ fiscal-2025 Annual Report and Annual Information Form (audited financial statements and MD&A, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results; market data (share price, market cap, multiples) is as of the 13 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★½, High quality — Modestly overvalued (base case, wide band); fairly valued only at today’s elevated copper → great company, rich price after a 128% run. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed copper grid, Table 3b): bear US$9,000/t, base US$12,000/t, bull US$15,000/t (the five US$1,500 rungs US$9,000–US$15,000); potash and iron-ore context alongside; spot copper ~US$14,400/t carried as a cross-check. FX ~C$1 = US$0.72. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Baytex Energy (BTE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 18:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Baytex Energy Corp.’s 2025 Annual Report and MD&A (year ended 31 December 2025), its year-end 2025 reserves as evaluated by McDaniel & Associates under NI 51-101 (effective 31 December 2025, released 2 February 2026), and the Q2 2026 results (released 30 July 2026). Reserves reflect the pure-play Canadian portfolio following the 19 December 2025 sale of the U.S. Eagle Ford assets. Market data is as of the TSX close on 10 August 2026. Financials are in Canadian dollars (TSX primary listing; also NYSE: BTE). Price deck: base WTI US$70/bbl, with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; against a spot of ~US$66/bbl; WTI–WCS heavy differential ~US$13/bbl; AECO gas ~C$2.50/GJ; 10% after-tax discount rate. Rating: ★★★½ (3.7/5), Solid — Fairly valued → a de-risked, pure-play Canadian producer with a net-cash balance sheet after the US$2.2 billion Eagle Ford sale and a genuine 35%-growth engine in the Pembina Duvernay, trading at a low cash-flow multiple; the quality band is held down by heavy-oil differential exposure and a chequered capital-allocation history. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

LunR Royalties (LUNR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026 (market data at the 13 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. LunR Royalties is a newly-formed company (incorporated July 2025, listed December 2025), so its financial history is a stub period; fundamentals are from its inaugural Annual Information Form (period from incorporation to 31 December 2025), the Fruta del Norte silver-stream transaction documents, and its Q2 2026 results (first cash flow). Market data (share price, market cap) is as of the 13 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Modestly overvalued (base case, wide band); the market prices the silver stream and the Vicuña district optionality in full → elite assets, rich price. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed silver grid, Table 3b): bear US$45/oz, base US$60/oz, bull US$75/oz (the five US$7.50 rungs US$45–US$75); copper context for the Vicuña royalties; spot silver ~US$65/oz carried as a cross-check. FX ~US$1 = C$1.39. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Tamarack Valley (TVE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.0]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025), its year-end 2025 reserves as evaluated by McDaniel & Associates and GLJ under NI 51-101 (effective 31 December 2025), and the December 2025 corporate budget. Market data is as of the TSX close on 10 August 2026. Financials are in Canadian dollars (TSX primary listing, C$ reporting). Price deck: base WTI US$70/bbl, with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; against a spot of ~US$66/bbl; WTI–WCS heavy differential ~US$13/bbl; AECO gas ~C$2.50/GJ; 10% after-tax discount rate, the oil & gas convention. Rating: ★★★★ (4.0/5), Solid — Fairly valued → a low-cost, free-cash-flow machine on two of the best oil plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, with a near-net-cash balance sheet and a rising shareholder yield, but the stock has already re-rated 146% in a year and now trades close to its own reserve value. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Vox Royalty (VOXR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.5]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026 (market data at the 13 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Vox Royalty’s FY2025 results and Annual Information Form (audited financial statements and MD&A, year ended 31 December 2025) and its record Q2 2026 results; market data (share price, market cap, multiples) is as of the 13 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Modestly undervalued (base case, wide band) → a re-rating candidate on the discount closing as guided growth arrives. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed gold grid, Table 3b): bear US$3,000/oz, base US$4,000/oz, bull US$5,000/oz (the five US$500 rungs US$3,000–US$5,000); spot gold ~US$4,370/oz carried as a cross-check. FX ~US$1 = C$1.39. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Elemental Royalty (ELE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.1]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026 (market data at the 13 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Elemental Royalty’s FY2025 results (audited financial statements and MD&A, year ended 31 December 2025) and its record H1 2026 results; market data (share price, market cap, multiples) is as of the 13 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Fairly valued (base case, wide band); modestly undervalued at spot gold → priced for its quality, with a re-rating on continued execution. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed gold grid, Table 3b): bear US$3,000/oz, base US$4,000/oz, bull US$5,000/oz (the five US$500 rungs US$3,000–US$5,000); copper ~US$12,000/t base (Caserones); spot gold ~US$4,370/oz carried as a cross-check. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Deterra Royalties (DRR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 15:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026 (market data at the 13 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Deterra Royalties’ FY2025 Annual Report (audited financial statements, year ended 30 June 2025) and its H1 FY26 results (six months to 31 December 2025); market data (share price, market cap, multiples) is as of the 13 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Fairly valued (base case, wide band); priced for its quality → own it for the tier-1 royalty and the franked yield. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed iron-ore grid, Table 3b): bear US$70/t, base US$90/t, bull US$110/t (the five US$10 rungs US$70–US$110, 62% Fe CFR); spot ~US$94/t carried as a cross-check. FX ~A$1 = US$0.66. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Metalla Royalty (MTA) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.5]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 13:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026 (market data at the 13 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Metalla’s fiscal-2025 disclosures (audited financial statements, MD&A and Annual Information Form , year ended 31 December 2025) and its record Q2 2026 results ; market data (share price, market cap, multiples) is as of the 13 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Overvalued (base case, wide band); the market prices the growth and much of the optionality → great asset selection, rich price. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed gold grid, Table 3b): bear US$3,000/oz, base US$4,000/oz, bull US$5,000/oz (the five US$500 rungs US$3,000–US$5,000); copper ~US$12,000/t base for Taca Taca; spot gold ~US$4,370/oz carried as a cross-check. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Gold Royalty (GROY) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.4]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026 (market data at the 13 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Gold Royalty Corp’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report on Form 20-F (audited financial statements and MD&A, year ended 31 December 2025) and its record H1 2026 results ; market data (share price, market cap, multiples) is as of the 13 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Fairly valued (base case, wide band); modestly undervalued at spot gold → priced for the ramp, execution is the swing. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed gold grid, Table 3b): bear US$3,000/oz, base US$4,000/oz, bull US$5,000/oz (the five US$500 rungs US$3,000–US$5,000); spot ~US$4,370/oz carried as a cross-check; copper ~US$12,000/t base. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Cameco (CCJ) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.3]

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 12 August 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Cameco’s fiscal-2025 annual report and MD&A (year ended 31 December 2025), the NI 43-101 technical reports governing McArthur River/Key Lake, Cigar Lake and Inkai, and the first- and second-quarter 2026 results (Q2 released 31 July 2026). Market data — share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value and analyst targets — is as of the 11 August 2026 close and now reflects the market’s digestion of the Q2 results and of Westinghouse’s confidential IPO filing. Rating: ★★★★½, High quality — Overvalued → great company, rich price: watch for a better entry. Price deck (Table 3b uranium rungs): bear US$75/lb, base US$100/lb, bull US$125/lb; the term contract indicator sits near US$90/lb and spot near US$86/lb, so the US$100 base is the nearest grid rung just above the term price. Discount rate 8% on Canadian assets, 12% on Inkai (8% plus a 4% Kazakhstan country premium). All figures are Canadian dollars unless marked US$; market data converts at US$1.00 = C$1.392 (11 Aug 2026), while Cameco’s reserve estimates use their own US$1.00 = C$1.28 assumption. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

OR Royalties (OR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.0]

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 12 August 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from OR Royalties’ fiscal-2025 Annual Report (Annual Information Form, audited financial statements and MD&A, year ended 31 December 2025), its H1 2026 results and its 2025 Asset Handbook ; market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of the 11 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly overvalued (base case, wide band; blended fair value US$27.72 vs. US$33.53, −17%); the read flips to fairly valued at ~US$4,365/oz gold, and the Street’s +21% target leans on the 2030 growth pipeline the NAV excludes. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed gold grid): base US$4,000/oz on the five US$500 rungs US$3,000–US$5,000, every rung run as a scenario; consensus 2026 deck ~US$4,750/oz at 0% weight; spot ~US$4,370/oz for context. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Triple Flag (TFPM) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.4]

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 12 Aug 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close). Price deck: base US$4,000/oz on the fixed US$3,000–5,000 gold grid, every rung run as a scenario; the consensus 2026-average deck (~US$4,750/oz) carried at 0% weight; spot ~US$4,370/oz for context. Rating: ★★★★½ High quality / Fairly valued on the US$4,000 base rung (wide band; blended fair value US$29.95 vs. US$29.90, roughly fair) — the cheapest of the five seniors on forward cash flow, with upside if gold holds and Ravenswood ramps.

Alamos Gold (AGI) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.1]

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 12 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Alamos Gold’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025, filed March 2026), the Island Gold District Expansion Study (3 February 2026) and its technical report (20 March 2026), and the Q2 2026 results released 29 July 2026. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 11 August 2026. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → quality compounder, now priced close to a conservative fair value after a 20% rally. Price deck (Table 3b gold rungs): bear US$3,500/oz, base US$4,000/oz, bull US$4,500/oz; spot ~US$4,370/oz as the run-rate cross-check; 5% real post-tax discount rate (7% bear, 4% bull), the precious-metals convention. All figures are US dollars unless marked C$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.5]

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 12 Aug 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close). Price decks: the fixed gold grid US$3,000–5,000/oz in US$500 steps, every price run as a scenario, with silver co-moved US$50–90/oz on its own grid; base US$4,000/oz gold and US$70/oz silver — each the representative trailing average snapped to its grid — and the consensus 2026-average deck (US$4,750/oz gold) carried as a zero-weight cross-check. No spot deck, so the read does not age with the daily quote. Rating: ★★★★½ High quality / Fairly valued on the US$4,000 base (wide band).

Royal Gold (RGLD) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 12 August 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Royal Gold’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025), its Q2 2026 results and its 2025/2026 Asset Handbook; market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of the 11 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly overvalued, wide band (blended fair value US$209.1 vs. US$233.00, −10%, on a boundary that flips to fairly valued at ~US$4,010/oz gold) → full: the market already sees it. Price deck used in the valuation: base US$4,000/oz on the fixed US$3,000–5,000 gold grid, every rung run as a scenario; the consensus 2026-average deck ~US$4,750/oz carried as a cross-check; spot ~US$4,370/oz and the FY2025 realized US$3,432/oz for context. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Franco-Nevada (FNV) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.6]

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 12 Aug 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close). Price deck: base US$4,000/oz on the fixed US$3,000–5,000 gold grid, every rung run as a scenario; the consensus 2026 deck (~US$4,750/oz) at 0% weight; spot ~US$4,370/oz for context. Rating: ★★★★½ High quality / Overvalued on the US$4,000 base rung (wide band; blended fair value US$143.78 vs. US$238.65, −40% on the filed FY2025 cash flow) — the best franchise in the sector at the richest price; ~35% overvalued even at spot, easing to modestly overvalued only above ~US$4,700/oz.

Coeur Mining (CDE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Durable structure — assets, reserves, unit costs, management — comes from Coeur Mining’s 2025 Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 31 December 2025); reserves are effective 31 December 2025, estimated under SEC S-K 1300 at $2,200/oz gold and $26.00/oz silver. The dated market layer reflects the completed acquisition of New Gold Inc. (closed 20 March 2026) and Coeur’s Second Quarter 2026 results (released 5 August 2026): the two New Gold mines (New Afton in British Columbia, Rainy River in Ontario) and ~392.7 million shares issued for them are treated as material post-period events and bridged into the market data and valuation. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026; Coeur reports and trades in US dollars, so no FX conversion applies. Rating: ★★★★ (3.9/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued → Full: an all-North-American gold-silver-copper senior with a pristine, net-cash balance sheet and a sharp cost-and-cash-flow inflection ahead, but one whose shares have already re-rated ~90% off the 2025 lows and now discount metals holding above today’s elevated spot. Price deck: base $4,000/oz gold, $50/oz silver, $4.50/lb copper (rounded-down trailing averages); bear $3,500 / $40 / $3.75 (the long-term reversion); bull $4,500 / $60 / $5.25; against spot ~$4,382/oz gold and ~$65/oz silver; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Imperial Oil (IMO) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.1]

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 15:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Imperial Oil’s FY2025 Form 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025), including the segment financials, production and SEC-basis reserves, cross-referenced to the Q2 2026 results for the current balance sheet. Reserves are proved (1P) net after royalty on an SEC basis, effective 31 December 2025. Market data is as of the NYSE American close on 10 August 2026; the analysis prices off the NYSE-listed line in US dollars, cross-checked to the TSX ordinary line (C$182.00) at ~1.3942 USD/CAD. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Overvalued (wide band) → an ExxonMobil-controlled, fully integrated oil-sands-and-refining machine with a fortress balance sheet and a 30-year dividend-growth record, but trading near a 52-week high at ~11× EV/EBITDA and ~1.7× a sum-of-the-parts struck on a conservative oil deck, so the quality is more than in the price. Price deck: base WTI US$70/bbl (the fixed Metal Pilot crude-grid rung nearest the rounded-down trailing average, leaning conservative on a spike-elevated tape), with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; against spot ~US$80/bbl; WTI–WCS heavy differential US$13/bbl; AECO gas ~C$2.00/mcf; 9% after-tax discount rate for the long-life oil-sands base. Financials are in Canadian dollars (Imperial’s reporting currency); the share price, market capitalisation and per-share values are in US dollars (NYSE), converted at ~1.3942 USD/CAD. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Suncor Energy (SU) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 13:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Suncor Energy’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025), updated for its Q2 2026 results (reported 5 August 2026). Market data is as of the TSX close on 10 August 2026 (C$88.08). Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → full: priced for a strong oil environment. Price deck: spot WTI ~US$80/bbl (elevated by the ongoing Middle East risk premium), base case US$70/bbl WTI (the fixed Metal Pilot crude-grid rung nearest the rounded-down trailing average — the spike-elevated spot snaps down to the US$70 rung), with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; WCS heavy differential ~US$12/bbl under WTI; FX CA$1.00 = US$0.71; upstream NAV on the company’s NI 51-101 Future Net Revenue at a 10% discount, flexed across the fixed crude grid (US$50·60·70·80·90). All figures are Canadian dollars unless marked otherwise. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

BHP Group (BHP) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.3]

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from BHP Group’s FY2025 Annual Report (year ended 30 June 2025), the accompanying Operating and Financial Review, the FY2025 production report and reserves & resources statement, and the FY2026 guidance in the report. Reserves and resources are as reported at 30 June 2025 under the JORC Code. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026; the analysis prices off the NYSE-listed BHP ADR in US dollars (1 ADR = 2 ordinary shares), cross-checked to the ASX ordinary line at ~0.66 AUD/USD. Rating: ★★★★½ (4.3/5), High quality — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → the world’s premier diversified miner, with the lowest-cost major iron ore business, a tier-1 copper franchise still growing, and an emerging potash platform, but priced near a 52-week high at ~8.7× trailing EV/EBITDA and ~1.2× a sum-of-the-parts struck on rounded-down commodity prices. Price deck: base iron ore (62% Fe CFR) US$90/t, copper US$4.00/lb, premium hard coking coal US$180/t, potash US$320/t; bear US$75/t iron / US$3.25/lb copper; bull US$105/t iron / US$4.75/lb copper; against spot ~US$100/t iron and ~US$4.40/lb copper; 8.5% real after-tax discount rate for the producing base. Financials are in US dollars (BHP’s reporting currency). Refreshed on each half-year/annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

First Majestic Silver (AG) — Stock Analysis 2026 [2.9]

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from First Majestic Silver’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results (reported 30 July 2026). Market data is as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026 ($18.85). Rating: ★★★, Average — Overvalued (wide band) → full: priced for spot silver. Price deck: silver spot ~US$66/oz, base US$50/oz, conservative US$34/oz; gold spot ~US$4,395/oz, base US$3,500/oz, conservative US$2,900/oz; 5% real post-tax discount rate. All figures are US dollars unless marked otherwise. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Endeavour Mining (EDV) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.3]

Sat, 08 Aug 2026 16:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 8 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Endeavour Mining’s FY2025 Annual Report (year ended 31 December 2025) and its H1/Q2 2026 results released 30 July 2026. Market data is as of the TSX close in early August 2026, expressed as a US$47.40 equivalent (≈C$66 / ≈£35). Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Modestly undervalued → re-rating candidate: cheap for a reason (West Africa). Price deck: gold spot ~US$4,350/oz, base US$3,500/oz, conservative US$2,900/oz; 5% real post-tax discount rate. All figures are US dollars (Endeavour’s reporting currency) unless marked otherwise. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Evolution Mining (EVN) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.1]

Sat, 08 Aug 2026 15:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 8 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Evolution Mining’s FY2025 Annual Report (year ended 30 June 2025) and its FY2026 full-year results released 15 July 2026. Market data is as of the ASX close on 5 August 2026 (A$12.52). Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Fairly valued → priced about right for a high-quality producer. Price deck: gold spot ~US$4,350/oz (~A$6,200), base US$3,500/oz (~A$5,000), conservative US$2,900/oz (~A$4,150); copper spot ~US$6.66/lb (~A$21,000/t), base US$5.00/lb (~A$15,700/t); AUD/USD 0.70; 5% real post-tax discount rate. Figures are in Australian dollars (A$) unless marked US$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.3]

Sat, 08 Aug 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 8 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Pan American Silver’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025, dated 18 February 2026) and its Q1 2026 results — this analysis predates the Q2 2026 results scheduled for 12 August 2026. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 6 August 2026 ($48.05). Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Fairly valued → priced about right: a leveraged silver bet, priced for spot. Price deck: silver spot ~US$63/oz, base US$48/oz, conservative US$32/oz; gold spot ~US$4,350/oz, base US$3,500/oz, conservative US$2,900/oz; 5% real post-tax discount rate. All figures are US dollars unless marked otherwise. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Kinross Gold (KGC) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.3]

Sat, 08 Aug 2026 13:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 8 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Kinross Gold’s 2025 Annual Report (year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results released 30 July 2026. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 6 August 2026 ($25.62). Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Fairly valued → priced about right: cheap on cash flow, fair on a conservative net asset value. Price deck: gold spot ~US$4,350/oz, base US$3,500/oz, conservative US$2,900/oz; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention. All figures are US dollars unless marked otherwise. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Gold Fields (GFI) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.4]

Sat, 08 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 8 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Gold Fields’ 2025 Integrated Annual Report (year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q1 2026 operational update (May 2026) — this analysis predates the H1 2026 results scheduled for 25 August 2026. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 6 August 2026 ($37.34). Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Modestly undervalued → re-rating candidate: cheap and high-yielding, with dated growth catalysts. Price deck: gold spot ~US$4,350/oz, base US$3,500/oz, conservative US$2,900/oz; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention. All figures are US dollars unless marked otherwise. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Barrick Mining (ABX) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Sat, 08 Aug 2026 11:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 8 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Barrick Mining’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025, dated 27 February 2026) and its Q1 2026 results released 11 May 2026 — this analysis predates the Q2 2026 release scheduled for 10 August 2026. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 6 August 2026 ($41.37). Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Modestly undervalued (wide band) → re-rating candidate: cheap, and the catalyst is a corporate breakup. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz (the three-month trailing average ~US$4,210, rounded down on the US$500 grid and held below the recent spike); bear US$3,000/oz (the long-term/incentive reversion); bull US$4,500/oz; against spot ~US$4,350/oz, carried as a cross-check. Copper base US$5.00/lb, bear US$4.00/lb, bull US$6.66/lb (spot). 5% real post-tax discount rate. All figures are US dollars unless marked C$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

International Petroleum (IPCO) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from International Petroleum Corporation’s 2025 year-end results and reserves release (year ended 31 December 2025, released 10 February 2026), the 2025 Annual Information Form and material change report, and the Second Quarter 2026 results (released 4 August 2026). Reserves are effective 31 December 2025, evaluated by Sproule ERCE under NI 51-101. Market data is as of the TSX close on 5 August 2026, the day after the Q2 2026 release; FX at ~1.37 CAD/USD. Rating: ★★★★ (3.9/5), Solid — Fairly valued → a 31-year reserve life and a just-started SAGD growth engine, priced at a sum-of-the-parts struck near the price oil has actually held; the quality band is held down by heavy-oil differential exposure and leverage still elevated at the peak of the build. Price deck (Table 3b rungs): base Brent US$70/bbl (the representative trailing average, snapped down one rung off the spot spike), with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90; spot ~US$83/bbl as a cross-check; WTI–WCS heavy differential US$13/bbl; AECO gas ~C$1.70/mcf; 10% discount rate, the oil & gas convention. Financials are in US dollars (IPC’s reporting currency); the share price and market capitalisation are in Canadian dollars (TSX primary listing). Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Newmont (NEM) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.0]

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Newmont Corporation’s fiscal-2025 Form 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025), updated for its Second Quarter 2026 results (reported 22 July 2026). Reserves are attributable proven-and-probable, effective 31 December 2025, reported under SEC S-K 1300 at a US$2,000/oz gold reserve price. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 6 August 2026. Rating: ★★★★ (4.0/5), Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → the world’s largest gold producer, now net cash, with the industry’s deepest reserve base and record free cash flow, but scored down for a mid-pack cost position and a checkered multi-year capital-allocation record; the market already capitalises it on roughly US$4,000/oz gold, so the value is fair rather than cheap. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz (the three-month trailing average, rounded down on the US$500 grid, kept below the recent spike); bear US$3,000/oz (the long-term/incentive reversion case); bull US$4,500/oz; against spot ~US$4,350/oz; copper base US$4.50/lb; 5% real discount rate, the precious-metals convention. Financials are in US dollars (Newmont’s reporting currency and its primary NYSE listing). Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Agnico Eagle (AEM) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.6]

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 11:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Agnico Eagle’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025, dated 19 March 2026) and its Q2 2026 results released 29 July 2026. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 6 August 2026 ($167.92). Rating: ★★★★½, High quality — Fairly valued (wide band) → priced for its quality. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz (the three-month trailing average ~US$4,210, rounded down on the US$500 grid and held below the recent spike); bear US$3,000/oz (the long-term/incentive reversion); bull US$4,500/oz; against spot ~US$4,350/oz, carried as a cross-check; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention. All figures are US dollars unless marked C$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

APA Corporation (APA) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.0]

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 11:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 August 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from APA Corporation’s fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results (6 August 2026); market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of 7 August 2026 and will move. Rating: ★★★, Average — Modestly undervalued on a mid-cycle deck (deep value, but cheap for real reasons) → a re-rating candidate whose catalyst is Suriname first oil and continued deleveraging. Price deck used in the valuation: spot Brent ~US$81/bbl (WTI ~US$78, 7 Aug 2026, elevated by a Strait-of-Hormuz risk premium), base case US$70/bbl Brent (Henry Hub ~US$3.75), with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 (Table 3b); ~11% discount rate (international risk, decommissioning, development drag). Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Permian Resources (PR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.1]

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 10:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 7 August 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Permian Resources’ fiscal-2025 Annual Report (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results (6 August 2026); market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of 7 August 2026 and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly undervalued on a mid-cycle deck (undervalued if oil holds near the strip) → a re-rating candidate priced for cost leadership and a fortress balance sheet. Price deck used in the valuation: spot WTI ~US$78/bbl (7 Aug 2026, elevated by a Strait-of-Hormuz risk premium), base case US$70/bbl (Henry Hub ~US$3.75), with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90 (Table 3b); ~10% discount rate. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Hecla Mining (HL) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 14:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 6 August 2026. Fundamentals come from Hecla Mining’s FY2025 Form 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025, filed February 2026) and its second-quarter 2026 results (reported early August 2026). Market data — share price, market cap, share count — is as of early August 2026 (NYSE: HL near US$14.43, ~671 m shares, ~US$9.7 bn market cap) and moves daily. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → priced about right for a genuinely high-quality US silver producer. Price deck: a base/consensus silver deck of US$38/oz and gold US$3,200/oz (the anchor for the NAV below); spot silver near US$46/oz and gold US$4,050/oz (Aug 2026) as the bull case; a conservative long-term deck of US$30/oz silver as the bear. All figures are US dollars. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events (the Casa Berardi sale, a Keno Hill milestone, a silver-price regime shift). For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

GoldMining (GLDG) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 6 August 2026. Fundamentals come from GoldMining Inc.’s FY2025 Annual Information Form and 40-F (year ended 30 November 2025, filed 27 February 2026), its named NI 43-101 PEAs (São Jorge, effective June 2026; La Mina, effective 22 April 2026; Whistler via U.S. GoldMining, effective 2 March 2026), and its 25 June 2026 mid-year shareholder update. Market data — share price, market cap, and the value of the listed holdings — is per the company’s balance-sheet snapshot as of 24 June 2026 (NYSE American: GLDG near US$0.84, TSX: GOLD near C$1.30); the shares move daily. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Undervalued, with unusual downside protection. Price deck: the PEAs are struck at gold prices the company describes as “significantly lower than spot”; spot gold near US$4,050/oz (Aug 2026) is the upside the projects are levered to. All figures are US dollars unless marked C$ (FX US$1 = C$1.42, the company’s own mid-year rate). Refreshed on each annual report and on material events (a new PEA, a project sale, a change in the listed holdings). For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

NexGold Mining (NEXG) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.8]

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 5 August 2026. Fundamentals come from NexGold’s named NI 43-101 technical reports — the Goldboro Feasibility Study (effective 16 December 2021) and the Goliath Gold Complex Prefeasibility Study (effective 22 February 2023) — its first-quarter 2026 results (14 May 2026) and its August 2026 corporate disclosure. Market data (share price, market cap, share count) is as of 1 August 2026 and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Undervalued (wide band) → a re-rating candidate, cheap on the price gold has actually averaged. Price deck: a base case of US$4,000/oz gold — the ~3-month trailing average (≈US$4,210/oz) rounded down, and the base-case anchor for the NAV below; a bear US$3,000/oz (the long-term/incentive reversion, and the reference the Company itself uses in its peer P/NAV comparison); and a bull US$5,000/oz — against spot US$4,050/oz (1 August 2026). NexGold’s own feasibility studies were struck at US$1,600–1,750/oz — roughly the price the market still appears to be capitalising, and less than half of spot. Dollar figures are Canadian dollars (C$) unless marked US$; FX US$1 = C$1.37. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events (a construction decision, a financing close). For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.8]

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 4 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Aya’s 2025 Annual Information Form and full-year results (year ended 31 December 2025, released 31 March 2026), the 2025 reserves & resources update, the Boumadine Preliminary Economic Assessment (effective 4 November 2025, filed 18 December 2025), and Q1 2026 results. Market data is as of the NASDAQ close on 4 August 2026; Q2 2026 financials are due 13 August 2026. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly overvalued → the market already sees it: a high-quality growth story priced for a strong silver deck and a successful Boumadine build. Price deck: spot silver ~US$48/oz, base case US$40/oz, conservative long-term US$30/oz; Boumadine gold base US$3,400/oz; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention, with Boumadine additionally risked. All figures are US dollars (Aya’s reporting currency) unless marked C$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

OceanaGold (OGC) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.6]

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 18:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 4 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from OceanaGold’s 2025 Annual Information Form and full-year results (year ended 31 December 2025, released 18 February 2026), the 2025 Mineral Reserves & Resources statement (effective 31 December 2025) and the Waihi District Pre-Feasibility Study (11 December 2024). Market data is as of the NYSE close on 4 August 2026, the day before the Q2 2026 results (due 5 August, after close). Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Undervalued → cheap on cash flow, and below the value of its mines struck at the price gold has actually averaged; the quality band is held down by a shorter reserve life and Philippine exposure. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz (the ~3-month trailing average, rounded down); bear US$3,000/oz (the long-term/incentive reversion); bull US$5,000/oz; against spot ~US$4,080/oz; copper base US$5.00/lb; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention. All figures are US dollars (OceanaGold’s reporting currency) unless marked C$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Topaz Energy (TPZ) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.2]

Sat, 01 Aug 2026 11:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 1 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Topaz Energy’s 2025 Annual Report (Annual Information Form, audited financial statements and MD&A, year ended 31 December 2025, filed 24 February 2026) and its second-quarter 2026 results (27 July 2026). Market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of the TSX close on 21 July 2026 — the date the Company’s own dividend-yield disclosure is struck from — and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Overvalued (blended fair value $24.00 vs. $32.68, −27%) → full: the market already sees it, and prices oil above the grid. Price deck: base WTI US$70/bbl, with the full fixed grid as the scenario set — deep bear US$50 / bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$80 / deep bull US$90, AECO ~C$1.82/mcf; the ~US$82 H1 2026 run-rate is carried as a spot cross-check, not the base. All dollar figures are Canadian dollars unless marked US$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Athabasca Oil (ATH) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.0]

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 17:15:00 +0200

Analysis as of 30 July 2026. Fundamentals are from Athabasca Oil Corporation’s fiscal-2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025, dated March 2026) and its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial and Operating Results and Reserves release (4 March 2026). Market data reflects the most recent confirmed pricing available at time of writing (17–23 Jul 2026, by source — see §10.1). Price deck: spot WTI ~US$84/bbl (elevated by the ongoing Middle East risk premium); the Company’s own 2026+ planning deck of US$65/bbl WTI, US$12.50/bbl WCS heavy differential, C$3/GJ AECO and 0.725 C$/US$ FX. Rating: ★★★★ (4.0/5), Solid. Value read: Fairly valued as of 30 Jul 2026. Refreshed on the next quarterly report or a material event. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Birchcliff Energy (BIR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.2]

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 16:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 30 July 2026. Price deck: spot Henry Hub ~US$3.25/MMBtu and AECO ~CA$2.40/GJ; base case US$3.50/MMBtu (the U.S. EIA’s 2027 forecast); the reserve report uses Deloitte’s escalating 2025 forecast. FX: CA$1.00 = US$0.712 (USD/CAD 1.4045). Rating: ★★★ Average quality / Undervalued → cheap for a reason — say what must go right. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. All figures in Canadian dollars unless marked. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Matador Resources (MTDR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 11:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 29 July 2026. Fundamentals are from Matador Resources’ fiscal-2025 Form 10-K (year ended 31 December 2025), updated for its First Quarter 2026 results (period ended 31 March 2026) and its 23 July 2026 acquisition announcements. Market data reflects the most recent confirmed close available at time of writing (27–29 Jul 2026, by ticker — see §10.1). Price deck: spot WTI ~US$84/bbl (elevated by the ongoing Middle East risk premium), SEC 12-month trailing average used for booked reserves US$61.82/bbl oil and US$3.39/MMBtu gas, Waha natural gas basis at a deeply negative differential to Henry Hub. Rating: ★★★★, Solid. Value read: Modestly undervalued as of 29 Jul 2026. Refreshed on the next quarterly report or a material event. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

NextDecade (NEXT) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.5]

Wed, 29 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 29 July 2026. Market data as of the 24 July 2026 close (US$7.01; 264.99m shares outstanding). Price deck: contracted liquefaction fee ~US$2.43/MMBtu (derived from disclosed fixed fees); uncontracted portfolio margin US$1.00 / US$2.00 / US$4.00 per MMBtu (bear / base / bull); Henry Hub passed through to customers under the variable fee. Discount rate 11% (sensitised 9–15%). Rating: ★★★½ Solid quality / Fairly valued. Update cadence: on each annual report, and on a material event (Train 6 FID, a holdco refinancing, or first LNG).