Rio Tinto (RIO) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 19 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Rio Tinto’s FY2025 Annual Report and results (year ended 31 December 2025), the fourth-quarter 2025 production report, and the reserves & resources statement in the 2025 20-F. Reserves and resources are as reported at 31 December 2025 under the JORC Code / SK-1300. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 15 August 2026; the analysis prices off the NYSE-listed Rio Tinto plc ADR in US dollars (1 ADR = 1 plc ordinary share), and values the whole dual-listed group (Rio Tinto plc + Rio Tinto Limited, ~1.63 billion ordinary shares combined). Rating: ★★★★ (3.9/5), Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → the world’s second-largest diversified miner, anchored by the lowest-cost major iron ore business on earth, now with record copper earnings and a new lithium arm, but priced at ~6.7× trailing EV/EBITDA and roughly its sum-of-the-parts once iron ore is struck at a conservative US$90/t. Price deck (rule V26): base iron ore (62% Fe CFR China) US$90/t, copper US$4.30/lb held at base across the iron-ore grid; the sensitivity grid runs the fixed iron-ore ladder US$70/80/90/100/110/t; against spot ~US$95/t iron and ~US$4.40/lb copper as cross-checks; 9% real after-tax discount rate for the producing base. Financials are in US dollars (Rio Tinto’s reporting currency). Refreshed on each half-year/annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

BHP Group (BHP) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.3]

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0200

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from BHP Group’s FY2025 Annual Report (year ended 30 June 2025), the accompanying Operating and Financial Review, the FY2025 production report and reserves & resources statement, and the FY2026 guidance in the report. Reserves and resources are as reported at 30 June 2025 under the JORC Code. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026; the analysis prices off the NYSE-listed BHP ADR in US dollars (1 ADR = 2 ordinary shares), cross-checked to the ASX ordinary line at ~0.66 AUD/USD. Rating: ★★★★½ (4.3/5), High quality — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → the world’s premier diversified miner, with the lowest-cost major iron ore business, a tier-1 copper franchise still growing, and an emerging potash platform, but priced near a 52-week high at ~8.7× trailing EV/EBITDA and ~1.2× a sum-of-the-parts struck on rounded-down commodity prices. Price deck (rule V26): base iron ore (62% Fe CFR) US$90/t, copper US$4.00/lb, premium hard coking coal US$180/t, potash US$320/t; bear US$75/t iron / US$3.25/lb copper; bull US$105/t iron / US$4.75/lb copper; against spot ~US$100/t iron and ~US$4.40/lb copper; 8.5% real after-tax discount rate for the producing base. Financials are in US dollars (BHP’s reporting currency). Refreshed on each half-year/annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Iron on Metal Pilot Blog

Rio Tinto (RIO) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

BHP Group (BHP) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.3]