Oil on Metal Pilot Blog

Headwater Exploration (HWX) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026. Price deck: base WTI US$80/bbl — the representative trailing average on the fixed US$60–100 grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$60, US$70, base US$80, US$90, deep bull US$100), heavy oil at WTI less a held US$14.54/bbl WCS differential, and the reserve evaluator’s escalating 1 January 2026 forecast as a 0% cross-check — no spot price. Shares at CA$13.25 (TSX close, 10 August 2026); the market-implied deck is ~US$122.84/bbl WTI. Canadian dollars at US$1.00 = CA$1.3942. Refreshed on each annual report and each quarterly report. Rating: ★★★½ Solid / Overvalued (wide band).

Baytex Energy (BTE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.4]

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 18:30:00 +0200

Analysis as of 14 August 2026. Price deck: base WTI US$80/bbl — the representative trailing average on the fixed US$60–100 grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$60, US$70, base US$80, US$90, deep bull US$100), heavy oil at WTI less a held US$24.90/bbl realized discount, and the reserve evaluator’s escalating 1 January 2026 forecast as a 0% cross-check — no spot price. Shares at CA$6.12 (TSX close, 10 August 2026); the market-implied deck is ~US$95.96/bbl WTI. Canadian dollars at US$1.00 = CA$1.3942. Refreshed on each annual report and each quarterly report. Rating: ★★★½ Solid / Modestly overvalued (wide band).