Agnico Eagle (AEM) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.6]

Analysis as of 7 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot. Fundamentals come from Agnico Eagle’s 2025 Annual Information Form and audited 2025 statements, the Q2 2026 interim statements, MD&A and results release (29–30 July 2026), the February 2026 three-year guidance and the Hope Bay investment decision (19 May 2026). Market data: NYSE close on 6 August 2026 — $167.92 a share, 506.4 m shares. Rating: ★★★★½, High quality — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → great company, rich price: watch for a better entry. Market-implied gold deck ~$4,418/oz. Price deck: base gold $4,000/oz — the 3-month trailing average of $4,296/oz snapped to the fixed $3,000–5,000 grid, taken at the lower grid price because the window still carries the early-2026 spike — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear $3,000 / bear $3,500 / base $4,000 / bull $4,500 / deep bull $5,000); 5% real after-tax discount rate. All figures are US dollars unless marked C$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. Prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer.

Agnico Eagle is the world’s second-largest gold producer: 3.45 million ounces in 2025, 87% of it from seven Canadian mines, with 55.4 million ounces of reserves and more than $3 billion of net cash. The thesis in one line: the highest-quality senior in the sector, priced above what its assets are worth on a $4,000 gold deck — the market is paying for the quality and for gold near $4,400. Why now: Hope Bay was sanctioned in May, a Finland hub was bought in June and the Barnat pit wall moved in July, so the growth path and the near-term ounces have both been reset. To screen Agnico against every listed gold producer, go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (Public: TSX: AEM; NYSE: AEM) is a senior gold producer headquartered in Toronto, running ten mines — Detour Lake and Macassa in Ontario; Canadian Malartic, LaRonde and Goldex in Quebec; Meadowbank and Meliadine in Nunavut; Kittila in Finland; Fosterville in Australia; Pinos Altos in Mexico — behind a pipeline led by Hope Bay, the Detour and Odyssey underground expansions, Upper Beaver and the San Nicolás copper-zinc joint venture. By archetype it is a producer / operator (mining), valued sum-of-the-parts with its development pipeline: the full nine-dimension rubric applies (Section 9). (AISC = all-in sustaining cost; koz / Moz = thousand / million ounces; P&P = proven and probable reserves; M&I = measured and indicated resources.)

Figure 1. Agnico Eagle in numbers

Figure data: Table 1 and its sources; rating per Section 9, valuation read per Section 7.

Table 1. Agnico Eagle in numbers

Source: 2025 Annual Information Form (reserves and resources, NI 43-101, effective 31 Dec 2025; 2025 production), the 2025 Annual Report MD&A (revenue, AISC, realised price $3,454/oz) and the Q2 2026 MD&A and interim statements (guidance, shares, net cash, dividend); share price per the stockanalysis.com price history ; market capitalisation, enterprise value and NAV per share per Section 7. Listed: Public (TSX: AEM / NYSE: AEM).

Thesis in brief. Bull: no senior combines scale, cost and jurisdiction this well — 3.45 Moz at the lowest AISC among gold-dominant peers, 87% of it in Canada, a net-cash balance sheet, and a funded pipeline (Hope Bay, Odyssey, Detour underground, Finland) aimed at more than 4 Moz in the early 2030s. Bear: at $167.92 the shares sit at 1.47× a $4,000-gold NAV and the blended fair value of $145.54 is 13.3% below the price; the price already assumes gold near $4,400, and the equity carries no hedge if gold falls back. What tips it: the gold price, first — the read flips to fairly valued above ~$4,104/oz — and second, whether Odyssey’s shaft (Q2 2027) and Hope Bay deliver on schedule while Barnat’s losses run through 2028. The full rating is in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

Agnico sells every ounce at the market price: its long-standing policy is no forward gold sales, so the whole gold cycle reaches the income statement. For how gold is priced and why miners carry operating leverage to it, see the Gold — A Complete Market Guide ; this section spends its words on the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Ten mines in four countries, run as five regional platforms — Abitibi Quebec, Abitibi Ontario, Nunavut, Finland and Australia, with a harvest-stage mine in Mexico. Every operating mine is 100%-owned.

Table 2. Operating mines, 2025

Source: Agnico Eagle 2025 Annual Information Form , “Operations & Production” (payable production, production cost per ounce and 2026 guidance by mine, pp.14–42) and “Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources” (pp.44–48); mine lives per the FY2025 MD&A , “Business Overview”. Proven and probable reserves are estimates under NI 43-101 and CIM definitions, effective 31 December 2025, struck at US$1,600/oz gold for most mines (US$1,500 for the Detour Lake pit, US$2,000 for Amaruq and Pinos Altos). The group reserve includes 11.5 Moz at development projects (Hope Bay, Hammond Reef, Upper Beaver, Wasamac, 50% of San Nicolás). Production cost is the IFRS line per ounce, not AISC, which Agnico reports only for the group. All mines 100%-owned; Agnico is listed as Public (TSX: AEM / NYSE: AEM).

Concentration. The seven Canadian mines produced 2.99 Moz, 87% of 2025 output, and hold 89% of reserves; Detour Lake and Canadian Malartic alone are 39% of production and half the reserve. No asset map is drawn (Section 10.1).

2.2 Revenue split by metal & by asset

Figure 2. Revenue by metal, 2025

Figure data: Agnico Eagle 2025 Annual Report , MD&A “Revenues from Mining Operations” (p.30): gold US$11,741.9 m, silver US$105.3 m, copper US$52.0 m, zinc US$8.7 m, net of selling costs.

Figure 3. Revenue by mine, 2025

Figure data: Agnico Eagle 2025 Annual Report , “Three Year Financial and Operating Summary” by mine (pp.84–89). “Other” is Goldex US$460.9 m, Pinos Altos US$323.3 m and the closed La India mine US$44.2 m.

The metal split is almost trivial — gold is 98.6% of revenue — so the concentration that matters is by mine: no single mine is more than a fifth of revenue, and the top two are 37%.

2.3 Detour Lake

Detour Lake in northeastern Ontario, acquired with Kirkland Lake Gold in February 2022, holds the group’s largest reserve — 18.58 Moz of proven and probable at 0.72 g/t (798.1 Mt, 31 Dec 2025), plus 17.69 Moz of measured and indicated and 6.30 Moz of inferred resource exclusive of reserves. It produced 692,675 oz in 2025 at a production cost of US$816/oz from a 76,353 t/d mill, and guides 700–730 koz in 2026, 610–640 koz in 2027 and 590–620 koz in 2028 as grades dip and the strip ratio rises before the pit deepens. Capital guided for 2026 is US$627.0 m for the open pit plus US$132.5 m for the underground project.

The growth case is a mill expansion to 79,450 t/d by the end of 2029 and a proposed underground mine at 11,200 t/d, together adding 300–350 koz a year and targeting ~1 Moz a year in 2031. It is not yet sanctioned: US$300 m has been allocated for the exploration ramp and bulk sample (total capital is not yet disclosed), the approval decision is guided for mid-2027, and the production permits are outstanding (only a water-taking permit for the exploration ramp is cited). The mine carries 2% net smelter royalties to Franco-Nevada over most of the property, paid in kind. The asset risk is grade: at 0.72 g/t, Detour’s margin is the most exposed in the group to cost inflation.

2.4 Canadian Malartic & Odyssey

Canadian Malartic near Val-d’Or, 100%-owned since Agnico bought Yamana’s half on 31 March 2023, produced 642,612 oz in 2025 at US$760/oz and holds 9.05 Moz of reserves at 1.66 g/t — the Barnat pit (1.45 Moz), the Marban deposit acquired with O3 Mining (1.58 Moz), and the Odyssey underground (6.03 Moz, of which East Gouldie 5.70 Moz at 3.23 g/t), with a further 13.56 Moz of inferred resource. Most claims carry a 5% net smelter royalty to Osisko Gold Royalties, paid in kind; all permits for the pit and Odyssey are in hand.

East Gouldie ramp production began in March 2026; the first phase of shaft sinking finished in July 2026 at 1,586 m, first hoisting is due in Q2 2027, and Odyssey was guided to contribute ~120 koz (2026), ~240 koz (2027) and ~450 koz (2028), reaching 550–600 koz a year from 2029 once Barnat is exhausted. Adding a second shaft, Marban and Wasamac could lift the complex to ~1 Moz a year from 2033. Odyssey’s 2026 capital is US$385.2 m; remaining capital to completion is not disclosed.

The asset-level risk crystallised on 1 July 2026, when the north wall of the Barnat pit moved. In-pit mining stopped; the company expects 60–80 koz less in H2 2026 and up to ~150 koz less in each of 2027 and 2028, lifting Canadian Malartic’s 2026 cash cost to ~US$1,260/oz, with mining due to resume in Q4 2026. Odyssey is unaffected.

2.5 Meadowbank

The Meadowbank complex in Nunavut — the Meadowbank mill fed by the Amaruq open pit and underground — produced 493,314 oz in 2025 at US$1,120/oz, the group’s third-largest output, from just 1.45 Moz of reserves. A pit push-back approved in February 2026 extends life by two years to 2030; guidance runs 475–495 koz (2026), 430–450 koz (2027) and 265–285 koz (2028), and an underground-only extension is under study. Amaruq pays a net-profits royalty to Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. (the “NTI Payment”, guided at US$185–195 m for 2026) plus a 1.4% NSR. The risk is plain: a high-cash-flow asset with a short tail.

2.6 Meliadine

Meliadine, near Rankin Inlet, produced 376,346 oz in 2025 at US$1,069/oz from a mill expanded to 6,500 t/d, and holds 3.62 Moz of reserves at 5.10 g/t with production through 2036. Guidance rises from 380–400 koz (2026) to 420–440 koz (2028) on throughput. The 11-year extension project drew a negative recommendation from the Nunavut Impact Review Board in November 2023; a resubmission was expected in Q2 2026. The mine carries a 1.2% NSR. Arctic logistics — one sealift season, diesel power — are the shared Nunavut risk.

2.7 LaRonde

The LaRonde complex in Quebec’s Abitibi — the deep LaRonde mine and the LZ5 zone — produced 344,555 oz in 2025 plus silver, zinc and copper, at US$1,045/oz, from 2.85 Moz of reserves at 3.72 g/t, with production through 2034 (LaRonde) and 2036 (LZ5). A 2% NSR to Royal Gold applies to the Bousquet ground. Guidance is flat at 330–370 koz through 2028; the asset risk is seismicity at depth.

2.8 Other mines

Macassa (Kirkland Lake, Ontario) is the highest-grade mine in the group — 312,729 oz in 2025 at 17.42 g/t and US$709/oz, 2.20 Moz of reserves, life to 2032, the mill ramping to ~2,150 t/d by end-2027. Kittila (Finland) produced 217,379 oz from 3.32 Moz of reserves (life to 2037) and faces a rise in Finland’s mining tax from 0.6% to 2.5% of revenue. Fosterville (Victoria) produced 160,522 oz as the high-grade Swan zone depletes; a plan to lift mining and milling ~65% to 3,300 t/d targets 160–190 koz a year from 2028. Goldex (125,501 oz, with the Akasaba West gold-copper satellite) and Pinos Altos (81,734 oz at US$2,518/oz, life to 2028) complete the portfolio.

2.9 Development pipeline & Finland

Management’s stated plan is five projects adding 1.3–1.5 Moz a year and lifting output above 4 Moz in the early 2030s — overwhelmingly near existing mills and permits.

Table 3. Growth projects

Source: Hope Bay per the Hope Bay investment-decision release , 19 May 2026 (a preliminary economic assessment: after-tax NPV(5%) ~US$2.7 bn at US$3,600/oz and ~US$4.3 bn at US$4,500/oz); Detour, Odyssey, Marban, Wasamac and Upper Beaver per the February 2026 three-year guidance release , pp.13–18; San Nicolás and the Finland transactions per the Q2 2026 results release and Q2 2026 MD&A Note 18; reserves per the AIF (NI 43-101, 31 Dec 2025). Finland consideration: FinGold US$325 m, Aurion US$339 m, Rupert US$1,687 m in shares plus contingent value rights of up to C$3.00 per Rupert share. Planned output and dates are company targets, not results.

Hope Bay is the one project now committed: development capital of US$428 m (H2 2026), US$797 m (2027), US$591 m (2028) and US$520 m (2029), then a ramp from 319 koz (2030) and 380 koz (2031) to ~435 koz a year in 2032–38 — which is why 2026 capital was raised in July to US$2.6–2.8 bn. Its 3.4 Moz reserve was reclassified to resources in May 2026 (pro-forma group reserve ~52.0 Moz), and it is sanctioned on a PEA, not a feasibility study.

2.10 Production, reserves & costs

Figure 4. Group gold production, 2022–2026E

Figure data: Agnico Eagle 2025 Annual Report , “Three Year Financial and Operating Summary” (2023–2025) and the 2024 Annual Report (2022); 2026E per the Q2 2026 MD&A , which puts full-year output “at the low end” of guidance. The series starts in 2022, the first full year after the Kirkland Lake Gold merger (8 February 2022) doubled the company, so earlier years are not comparable; 2026E is guidance, not a result.

Costs. Group AISC was US$1,339/oz in 2025 (US$1,313/oz on the 2026 definition, which moves the NTI Payment out of cash costs) and is guided at US$1,400–1,550/oz for 2026; H1 2026 came in at US$1,471/oz.

Reserves and replacement. Group proven and probable reserves were 55.44 Moz at 1.30 g/t at 31 December 2025, beside 47.08 Moz of measured and indicated and 41.82 Moz of inferred resource, both exclusive of reserves (NI 43-101). On 2026 guidance the reserve life is ~16 years (~15 years on the ~52.0 Moz pro-forma after the Hope Bay reclassification). The reserve is struck at US$1,600/oz, the lowest price basis among large producers, so conversion at higher prices is a source of growth the company controls.

2.11 Peer positioning

The peer set used for every “vs. peers” claim in this analysis is five listed gold producers of senior or large-intermediate scale with operations or flagship projects in Canada, none under an announced, unclosed takeover or merger.

Table 4. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: each peer’s figures from its own filings — Newmont’s FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 results; Gold Fields’ 2025 Integrated Annual Report ; Kinross’s 2025 Annual Report and Q2 2026 results; Evolution’s FY2026 results (year to 30 June 2026); Alamos’s 2025 AIF and Q2 2026 results; Agnico per Table 2 and the Q2 2026 MD&A. AISC definitions, reserve price decks and reserve codes differ between issuers, so the comparison is indicative; Evolution’s AISC is net of large copper by-product credits and in Australian dollars. Barrick and Northern Star are left out: Barrick has a planned North American spin-off and a reported sale process for its African assets, and Northern Star faces an activist call for a sale. Screen the full gold peer set on grade, cost, reserve life and stage at Metal Pilot.

Agnico is the second-largest producer in the set and the lowest-cost gold-dominant one — its 2025 AISC sits US$230–310/oz below Newmont, Kinross and Gold Fields, and only Evolution, on copper credits, reports lower. It has the cleanest jurisdiction mix of the seniors. Where it does not lead is reserve life: ~16 years is below the set’s median, because its reserve is struck at the lowest gold price in the group.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 5. Five-year financial summary, years ended 31 December

Source: revenue, net income, EPS, diluted shares and dividends per the 2025 Annual Information Form , “Selected Financial Data” (p.1, derived from the audited statements); operating cash flow, capex, free cash flow (operating cash flow less additions to property, plant and mine development), adjusted EBITDA, realised price and AISC per the 2025 Annual Report MD&A (pp.62–83) for 2023–2025 and the 2024 Annual Report for 2022. Sustaining and development capex include capitalised exploration. Net cash is cash less total long-term debt, the company’s measure; 2022 is the same arithmetic on the 2024 Annual Report’s balance sheet. 2021 cash-flow lines are “—” because the 2021 annual report is not in the source set. 2022 is the first year after the Kirkland Lake Gold merger, which is why revenue and the share count step up.

Figure 5. Free cash flow, 2022–2025

Figure data: Table 5. Free cash flow rose almost eightfold in three years on a higher gold price at a steady ~3.4–3.5 Moz of output.

The three-statement read. Applying the Financial Metrics for Commodity Investing framework: the cash backs the profit — 2025 operating cash flow of US$6,817 m was 1.5× net income — and the one year where it did not, 2023, is flagged by the company itself (net income of US$1,941 m against adjusted net income of US$1,096 m, the gap non-cash). 2025 net income also carries a US$229 m impairment reversal, and Q2 2026 a US$155 m gain on selling the Barsele interest; the adjusted line is the one to read. Capex splits cleanly: sustaining capital has grown only from US$734 m to US$955 m since 2022 while development spend nearly doubled — a growing business, not one running to stand still. The share count is the counterweight: weighted diluted shares doubled from 245 m to 503 m through the Kirkland Lake and Yamana deals, and 8.2 m more were issued for Rupert in June 2026.

H1 2026 and the balance sheet. H1 2026 revenue was US$7,902 m, net income US$3,296 m and free cash flow US$2,067 m after US$2.41 bn of cash taxes (including US$1.3 bn of 2025 tax paid in Q1). At 30 June 2026 cash was US$3,464.0 m against US$196.8 m of debt — two US$100 m senior notes due 2030 and 2032 — for net cash of US$3,267.1 m, with the US$2.0 bn revolver (to February 2029) undrawn. Leverage needs no stress test: at a US$3,000 gold price the business stays cash-generative and the balance sheet stays in net cash. Ratings are A3 (Moody’s) and A- (Fitch, upgraded April 2026). The reclamation provision is US$1,508.6 m (US$222.0 m current) against an undiscounted estimate of US$1,535.1 m at year-end 2025. Equity securities and warrants were carried at US$1,161.6 m, plus the 31.4% Goldsky stake at US$183.8 m.

Table 6. Cost deck handed to the valuation

Source: 2026 guidance release , 13 February 2026 (pp.19–24: guidance, inflation, grades, NTI Payment, Finnish tax, sensitivities); Q2 2026 MD&A (guidance update, p.5); royalties per the 2025 Annual Report, Note 27 (p.147) and the AIF; tax per the 2025 Annual Report, Note 25 (p.144) and the 2024 Annual Report’s deferred-tax note. That no tax pools remain is the analysis’s reading of the nil loss-carry-forward line, not a company statement.

Hedging. Agnico’s “long-standing policy of no forward gold sales” means it held no metal derivatives at year-end 2025. It hedges currency instead: FX derivatives rose from US$4,458.4 m notional at 31 December 2025 to US$10,281.0 m at 30 June 2026, now reaching into 2028 — puts, calls, collars and forwards that cover ~60% of the remaining 2026 Canadian-dollar exposure at a 1.38 floor with participation to 1.42. The Q2 mark-to-market was a US$81 m loss; no position is a large hidden liability. Diesel is bought physically for the sealift.

Capital returns. A dividend has been declared every year since 1983; it was raised 12.5% to US$0.45 a quarter from Q1 2026. The buyback authority was renewed on 6 May 2026 at US$2.0 bn (up to 5% of shares); H1 2026 buybacks were 2.96 m shares for US$549.7 m, and the stated aim is to return ~40% of annual free cash flow. Both are covered many times by free cash flow.

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

Ammar Al-Joundi has been President and CEO since 23 February 2022; before that he was Barrick’s Senior EVP and CFO and, earlier, Agnico’s own CFO. Jamie Porter, CFO since May 2023, was CFO of Alamos Gold from 2011. Operations run under two COOs appointed in February 2022: Dominique Girard (Nunavut, Quebec and Europe; a former Meadowbank general manager) and Natasha Vaz (Ontario, Australia and Mexico; Kirkland Lake Gold’s COO before the merger). Guy Gosselin (Exploration), Carol-Ann Plummer-Theriault (Sustainability, People & Culture), Jean Robitaille (Strategy & Technology) and Chris Vollmershausen (Legal) complete the executive team.

Sean Boyd, Chair since 31 December 2023, joined in 1985 and was CEO from 1998 to 2022. The board has 11 directors, 9 independent, led by independent Lead Director Jamie Sokalsky (former Barrick CEO) and Vice-Chair Jeffrey Parr. Its five committees are Audit (chaired by Parr), Compensation (Leona Aglukkaq, a former federal minister from Nunavut), Corporate Governance (Peter Grosskopf), Health, Safety, Environmental & Sustainable Development (Deborah McCombe) and Technical (Jonathan Gill). No related-party interest in a material transaction is disclosed since 2023. Alignment is modest: directors and officers own ~0.08% of the shares, and CEO pay was US$17.6 m in 2025, 79% of it in share-linked awards.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The stated strategy is high-quality growth in a few prolific districts with high safety and ESG standards. The targets are concrete: 20–30% production growth over the decade to more than 4 Moz in the early 2030s; ~1 Moz a year each at Detour Lake (2031) and the Canadian Malartic complex (from 2033); a ~500 koz-a-year Finland hub around Kittila and Ikkari; and Hope Bay from 2030. 2026 capital is guided at US$2.6–2.8 bn excluding capitalised exploration, after the Hope Bay decision.

The record is strong on assets and mixed on dilution. The deals that made the modern company were mostly paid in shares, and in Q2 2026 it consolidated Finland’s Central Lapland belt for US$2.35 bn, 61% of it in new shares plus contingent value rights.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

Table 7. Corporate events and capital structure

Source: Agnico Eagle 2025 Annual Information Form , “General Development of the Business” and “Corporate Structure” (pp.3–9); Q2 2026 MD&A , Notes 5, 10, 11 and 18; the Orla and Goldsky releases (9 Sep 2025; 28 Jan 2026). Every operating mine is 100%-owned; the Rupert CVRs pay C$1.00 each at 5 Moz of Ikkari reserves, at commercial production with 7.5 Moz, and at 10 Moz, within ten years, and are not recognised as a liability.

The structure is simple — 100% of every mine, one 50/50 development joint venture, no controlling shareholder — and the balance sheet funds the pipeline without new equity. The new element is contingent: 207.7 m Rupert CVRs worth up to ~C$623 m if Ikkari grows as hoped.

5. ESG & sustainability

Table 8. ESG snapshot

Source: Agnico Eagle 2025 Annual Information Form , “Sustainability”, “Employee Health and Safety”, “Community” and “Environmental Protection” (pp.57–60), and the 2026 Management Information Circular (safety scorecard). The AIF prints 2025 emissions as “1.32 metric tonnes”; the context implies million tonnes. Community investment in dollars is not disclosed.

Agnico’s licence to operate is built on long relationships more than declarations: more than a decade in Nunavut under Inuit benefit agreements, a first Reconciliation Action Plan in 2024, and an injury rate that is low for underground and Arctic mining. The weak points are measurable ones: a fatality at Fosterville in December 2025, diesel-heavy Arctic power that makes the 2030 target hard, and the Meliadine extension’s negative review in 2023. Two years of safety data is too short for a trend chart (Section 10.1).

6. Risks

Table 9. Risk register

Source: Agnico Eagle 2025 Annual Information Form , “Risk Factors” (pp.61–78); the Barnat release of 2 July 2026 and the Q2 2026 results release ; the Hope Bay release of 19 May 2026. Likelihood and impact scores are this analysis’s judgement on a 1–5 scale, not disclosed figures.

Figure 6. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 9. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant.

For a company of this quality the largest risk is not an asset but the metal: the equity is unhedged, so a return toward US$3,000 gold would do more damage than any single mine. The one operational risk that has already happened — the Barnat wall — costs ounces in 2026–28 but not the Odyssey thesis. Hope Bay, sanctioned on a PEA, is the main execution risk the valuation charges.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 7 August 2026, in US dollars (Agnico reports in US dollars; the section is struck on the NYSE listing, so no FX conversion enters the bridge). Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base gold $4,000/oz — against a 3-month trailing average of $4,296/oz (May–July 2026), a 6-month average of $4,581 and a 12-month average of $4,311, all LBMA monthly averages per the World Bank Pink Sheet to 31 July 2026. The 3-month window is the representative one because the 6- and 12-month averages carry the January–March spike to $5,020; it sits just $46 above the midpoint between the $4,000 and $4,500 grid prices and still carries the spike’s May tail ($4,587, against $4,073 in July), so it is taken at the lower grid price. Every grid price from $3,000 to $5,000/oz is run as a scenario (deep bear $3,000 / bear $3,500 / base $4,000 / bull $4,500 / deep bull $5,000); the Reuters poll’s 2027 average of $4,610/oz is an unweighted cross-check, and no spot deck is carried. Silver, copper and zinc — 0.9%, 0.4% and 0.1% of 2025 revenue, credited inside cash costs — are by-products held in every column at their own grid prices, not co-moved: silver $60/oz (3-, 6- and 12-month averages $67.83, $73.20 and $64.53, the same spike lean), copper $6/lb (3-month $6.14) and zinc $1.60/lb — the middle of a five-price grid built for this section, $1.20 · 1.40 · 1.60 · 1.80 · 2.00/lb, in $0.20 steps, the nearest point to its 3-month $1.61. Discount rate 5% real, after tax — the precious-metals convention — sensitised 4–7%. Share price $167.92 (NYSE close, 6 August 2026, per the stockanalysis.com price history , read 30 September 2026); 506.36 m basic and {core.num(m.SHARES, 2)} m fully diluted shares; balance sheet as of 30 June 2026.

Agnico is valued on the producer (mining) archetype, run as a sum-of-the-parts: ten producing mines built from guidance and reserves, a sanctioned project, study-stage reserves, two transaction marks and the resource beyond every plan. The method is set out in The Commodity Investor, Part 11: How to Value Commodity Stocks ; this section applies it without re-teaching it. The blended fair value is $145.54 per share at the $4,000 base price, $110.90 at $3,500 and $175.95 at $4,500; each $500/oz step moves NAV per share by $22.32 (Table 16). The producing mines plus the equity bridge are worth $76.11 per share, the risked pipeline and marks $13.67 and the resource beyond the plans $24.77.

What §7 starts from. The figures below set the mine builds, the Hope Bay study, the resource tier and the bridge. Everything else §7 takes from a filing or a market series is in the register at §10.1 (Table 27).

Table 10. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on

Notes to Table 10

1. The quoted label is the group total’s line of the reserve table; Detour Lake, Odyssey and East Gouldie are rows of the same table on the same page.

Source: the 2025 Annual Information Form (19 March 2026); the fourth-quarter 2025 results and three-year guidance release (13 February 2026); the 2025 Annual Report ; the Hope Bay investment-decision release (19 May 2026); the Canadian Malartic update (2 July 2026); the Q2 2026 results release and the Q2 2026 MD&A with its condensed interim statements (29 July 2026). Pages are those of each filed document; the AIF’s are its printed page numbers. All figures in US dollars. Reserves and resources are effective 31 December 2025, the balance sheet 30 June 2026 and guidance 29 July 2026 — the section’s three vintages, each printed with its row. The share price the section is read against ($167.92, 6 August 2026) is in the opening block, not here: it moves the rating, not the valuation. The full register — every figure §7 takes from outside this analysis — is Table 27 in §10.1.

7.1 Method selection

The weights are the producer default — NAV 50% / EV/EBITDA 30% / FCF-yield support 20% — without deviation: the pipeline and the resource sit inside the NAV, risked row by row, and the cash-flow reads are there because they cannot see them. The third slice is FCF-yield support because every line it needs is guided.

Table 11. Valuation method selection

Source: method-to-archetype mapping and the default weight set per The Commodity Investor, Part 11: How to Value Commodity Stocks , “The archetype is the unit of analysis” and “The valuation toolkit”; the producer default carried without deviation. Archetype per Section 1. Input families: intrinsic 50% (one method); cash-flow 50% (two methods, at the ceiling for two reads of the same cash flow, stated here); asset & capacity and transaction 0%. Target multiples are derived in §7.3 from the archetype anchors, not from a peer set.

7.2 Net asset value

Vehicle map. Every mine is 100%-owned — the Canadian ones directly by the parent — and no mine carries a stream, so each royalty is charged once, inside its row’s cash cost. Two lines are marks rather than builds, and one stake sits in the bridge.

Table 12. Vehicle map

Source: this analysis; ownership, subsidiaries and royalty agreements per the 2025 Annual Information Form, “Corporate Structure” and the mine descriptions, and the 2025 Annual Report, Note 27; San Nicolás per Note 2; the Central Lapland acquisitions, the CVRs and the Goldsky associate per the Q2 2026 interim statements, Notes 5 and 7; Hope Bay’s royalties per its 19 May 2026 release.

Tax basis and the pools. Every author-built row takes the statutory rate on cash margin, no depreciation shield: Ontario 33.4%, Quebec 40–41% (its mining tax rises with the margin), Nunavut 36.5%, Finland 20%, Australia 30%, Mexico 36.0%; Hope Bay carries its study’s own tax schedule. The FY2025 income-tax note shows no loss carry-forwards and $1,569.0 m of unrecognised deductible temporary differences; the shield is declined. Declining those deductions alone biases NAV down by up to $0.80 per share; the undepreciated tax basis of the mining properties is not disclosed — the same note carries a $6,125.6 m deferred tax liability on them — and leaving out its depreciation biases NAV further down, by an amount the filings do not bound. The provision is bridged from the statements at its $1,508.6 m carrying value.

Stage risk is charged once, in the row risk weights, each read off the de-risking scale by its milestone status (Section 2); the target P/NAV and the rate carry no second charge.

• Hope Bay — 0.55×. Sanctioned 19 May 2026 and funded from cash, construction permits and production lease in hand, engineering 67% complete — but on a PEA whose plan includes inferred ounces, with the water licence and production-phase permits outstanding. Read on “permitted, funding gap open” (0.55–0.75×) at the floor, because the study is not a feasibility study; the adjacent row at 0.45× gives $113.89 per share. On study level alone the PEA sits in the “scoping / PEA only” row (0.20–0.40×), so the 0.55× is read outside the study row, carried above that row by the sanction, the funding and the construction permits in hand; at the row’s 0.40× ceiling NAV falls by $1.00 per share and the blend by $0.58.
• Wasamac — 0.40×; Upper Beaver 0.35×, Marban 0.45×, Hammond Reef 0.20×. Reserves declared, none sanctioned: the pre-feasibility band (0.35–0.55×) for the first three, positioned by capital disclosure and mill access, and the scoping band’s floor for Hammond Reef, whose 2020 evaluation is being redone (Table 13, notes 9–13).

Funding. No raise is modelled: the $2.6–2.8 bn 2026 capital programme sits against $3,464.0 m of cash, an undrawn $2.0 bn revolver and next-twelve-month free cash flow after all capital that is positive at every grid price (§7.4); the share count holds at 507.02 m in every scenario.

The per-asset NPV build. One block per asset, before the model table, at one discount-rate treatment: 5% real. Reserves are NI 43-101 / CIM proven and probable — the mining equivalent of a 2P basis — so every NAV/share below is on proven and probable reserves. No technical report is in the source set, so each mine is built from its guided volumes, its guided cash cost and capital, and a payable reserve that ends its life.

Table 13. Per-asset NPV build — base case ($4,000/oz gold, 5% real)

Notes to Table 13

1. H2 2026 is the 2026 guidance midpoint less the first-half actual; 2027–28 are the three-year guidance midpoints, Canadian Malartic less the Barnat losses (70 koz in H2 2026, the 60–80 koz midpoint; “up to ~150 koz” in each of 2027 and 2028, taken in full). The ten rows’ H2 2026 sum, 1,649.1 koz, sits 1.9% above the 1,619.1 koz the low end of the 3.3–3.5 Moz guidance leaves for the half.
2. The payable pool is the reserve times the metallurgical recovery printed beside it in the AIF reserve table’s Recovery % column (p.45), one basis for every mine, ounce-weighted where a mine has more than one reserve row (Canadian Malartic, LaRonde, Macassa, Goldex, Pinos Altos). From 2029 each mine runs at its 2028 rate — Canadian Malartic at the 550–600 koz midpoint guided for Odyssey — until the pool or the stated mine life ends, whichever is first. Only Pinos Altos meets its life first: its life ends in 2028 with 13 koz of payable reserve left, carried at 0.0.
3. Unit cost = the 2026 total-cash-cost guidance (at $4,500 gold, $70 silver, C$1.36) moved to the deck by the company’s own sensitivities (−$15 royalties at $4,000; +$6 silver at $60) plus 2026 sustaining capital per guided ounce; Meadowbank adds the NTI Payment. The rows’ output-weighted 2026 cost plus corporate G&A, $1,431/oz at $4,500, is 3.0% below the $1,475 AISC guidance — the gap is reclamation accretion and other non-cash lines the bridge carries.
4. Statutory rates: Canada 26% combined (FY2025 Note 25); Ontario’s 10% mining tax and Quebec’s 16% / 22% / 28% margin brackets are the provincial statutes; Nunavut’s 27% income tax and 13% maximum royalty are the Hope Bay release’s. The builds (33.4–41.3%) bracket the 35–40% Canadian effective rate the company guides. Declining the $1,569.0 m of unrecognised deductions biases NAV down by up to $0.80 per share; the mining properties’ undisclosed tax basis (a $6,125.6 m deferred tax liability on them, FY2025 Note 25) biases it further down.
5. Development capital by mine is guided for 2026 only; it is held to 2028 (Detour Lake to 2029, when its mill ramp ends) and dropped after, when the rows carry sustaining capital alone. Each further year of Odyssey’s $367.0 m would take $0.61 off NAV per share.
6. The ~$1,260 full-year cash cost after the Barnat event and the $1,082 first-half actual imply $1,506/oz in H2 2026; the excess over the pre-event $1,187 is charged once, after tax. The lost Barnat ounces stay in the pool, i.e. they are deferred to the tail of the plan; if they are lost instead, NAV falls by $0.64 per share.
7. The PEA prints NPV(5%) at $3,600 and $4,500 and a $174 m sensitivity per $100/oz. A schedule built from its printed production, capital, costs, NTI Payments and 33% effective tax returns $2,608.4 m at $3,600 and 5%, 3.4% below the printed $2.7 bn, and reproduces the slope within 2.6% ($178.5 m); that schedule’s own profile re-strikes the PEA NPV at other rates. The study’s cash flows start with H2 2026 capital, so no roll-forward is needed.
8. Milestones: study — PEA, plan includes inferred (outstanding); environmental permits and production lease for construction (in hand); water licence and production-phase permits (outstanding); funding (from cash, in hand); construction (engineering ~67%, first sealift August 2026).
9. Wasamac: 1.38 Moz probable reserve and a filed study (capital, output, cost, life), not sanctioned; development “as early as 2029”. Pre-feasibility band, taken low because the start date is conditional.
10. The group’s 55,442 koz less the pipeline rows’ 13,113 koz (Hope Bay 3,396, Upper Beaver 2,768, Marban 1,577, Wasamac 1,377, Hammond Reef 3,323, San Nicolás 672). Hope Bay’s reserve was reclassified to resources in May 2026, so the pro-forma group reserve is ~52.0 Moz; its ounces are valued only in block 11.
11. Upper Beaver: reserves on a 2024 internal evaluation, a standalone mill whose capital is undisclosed, decision mid-2027 — the pre-feasibility band’s floor.
12. Marban: initial reserve at year-end 2025, ore for the existing Canadian Malartic mill, permitting to 2030 — mid-band.
13. Hammond Reef: a 2020 internal evaluation, not approved, a 0.84 g/t greenfield pit, update due 2027 — the scoping band’s floor.
14. Each CVR pays C$1.00 at 5 Moz of Ikkari reserves (3.5 Moz probable at acquisition) and C$1.00 at each of two production milestones. The first is charged in full, five years out; the two production-linked milestones are carried at zero, because paying them requires a producing Ikkari worth far more than C$2.00 per CVR.
15. Hope Bay’s 2,217 koz is inside its PEA; Barsele’s 176 koz was sold to Goldsky; San Nicolás’s 20 koz sits in its mark.
16. M&I is 85% of reserves. The factor sits just above the band floor: reserves struck at $1,600/oz against a $4,000 deck and M&I clustered around operating mills argue up (Detour Lake alone holds 17.7 Moz), while the 1.22 g/t grade and the unsanctioned Detour Lake underground argue down.

Source: this analysis, from the 2025 Annual Information Form (reserves p.45, resources p.48, 2026 capital by mine p.8, reserve recoveries pp.45–46), the three-year guidance (production p.20, cash costs p.21, sensitivities p.22, Wasamac p.15), the Hope Bay release (19 May 2026), the Q2 2026 MD&A and interim statements and the Q2 2026 results release. Rows are numbered within each block. Discounting is end-period from 30 June 2026 (H2 2026 at 0.5 years).

The build resolves into the per-asset model: one row per asset, with the stage, profile, cost, capital, tax and discounting behind each NPV.

Table 14. Per-asset model — base case ($4,000/oz gold, 5% real)

Source: this analysis, from the filings cited under Table 13. Every NPV in the last column reproduces from its block in Table 13; CF/yr is the after-tax cash flow at the post-2028 rate.

Table 15. NAV build-up and equity bridge (base case — $4,000/oz, 5% real)

Source: this analysis; rows are numbered in the first column and run straight down the bridge — the memo lines beneath the result carry no number because nothing steps through them — and every balance-sheet line per the Q2 2026 condensed interim statements (balance sheet p.51, notes 5–18); the provision basis and the tax rate per the FY2025 audited statements. The tiers sum to the published NAV/share: $76.11 + $13.67 + $24.77 = $114.56. The producing tier alone sits 55% below the $167.92 price, so the market pays for the producing mines and then for more than the whole risked pipeline and resource tier on top. Values computed on unrounded inputs; every cell carries its own unit.

Figure 7. NAV build-up and equity bridge

Figure data: Table 15. Equity NAV of $58,081.5 m equates to $114.56 per fully diluted share; the producing tier alone is $76.11. The fifteen blocks are grouped by tier: “Develop.” holds Hope Bay, Wasamac, the unscheduled reserves and the two marks; “Net cash & investments” groups net cash with the equity portfolio and the associates (Goldsky); “Hedge & reclam.” groups the FX mark with the provision.

Figure 8. NAV/share sensitivity — gold price × discount rate

		Gold price ($/oz)
		3,000	3,500	Base4,000	4,500	5,000
Discount rate	4%	$74.68	$98.58	$122.49	$146.39	$170.30
	5% (base)	$69.91	$92.23	$114.56	$136.88	$159.20
	7%	$61.92	$81.61	$101.28	$120.96	$140.63

Notes to Figure 8

1. Checksum — the $3,500 column at 5%: the ten mines 31,831.5 (Detour Lake 11,769.1; Canadian Malartic complex 5,481.3; Meadowbank (Amaruq) 1,197.8; Meliadine 3,519.7; LaRonde complex 2,673.3; Macassa 2,122.8; Kittila 3,068.0; Fosterville 1,219.9; Goldex 699.5; Pinos Altos 80.0), each its discounted ounces × ($3,500 − its unit cost at that price) × (1 − tax) less development capital; Hope Bay ($2,700 m − $174 m × 1) × 0.55 = 1,389.3; Wasamac 265.7; unscheduled reserves 1,761.9 at $752.0/oz; marks 2,525.6; resource 10,075.8; enterprise NAV 47,849.9 − 1,086.7 bridge = 46,763.2 ÷ 507.02 m = $92.23.
2. Rate rows — the mine rows, Wasamac, capitalised G&A and the CVR re-discount directly, and the unscheduled and resource rows follow through the in-plan value per ounce; Hope Bay’s PEA NPV is re-struck on its own schedule (×1.137 at 4%, ×0.768 at 7%); the two marks hold at the price paid. Risk weights are held; they move only in the scenarios (§7.6).
3. Cost — unit cost +10% at the base price takes NAV per share to $108.55 (−5.2%); a 10% higher gold price ($4,400) with costs following at half the rate (+5%) gives $129.38 (+12.9%), against $132.41 (+15.6%) on price alone.
4. FX — n/a for the valuation currency: Agnico reports in US dollars and the section is struck on the NYSE listing. The operating exposure is the Canadian dollar in costs, guided at C$1.36: on the company’s $6/oz per C$0.01 sensitivity, the 6 August rate of 1.4018 gives $115.63, a 10% stronger C$ $111.37 and a 10% weaker C$ $118.45. The FY2025 financial-risk note prints a 10% weaker US dollar against the C$ at $8.0 m of pre-tax income, on financial instruments only.
5. Stage risk — n/a: no risked tranche reaches a quarter of enterprise NAV (Hope Bay 3.2%, the whole development tier 11.7%). For reference, Hope Bay one band lower (0.45×) gives $113.89.
6. Schedule slip — n/a: no development asset reaches a tenth of enterprise NAV (Hope Bay 3.2%). For reference, Hope Bay’s first gold and remaining capital one year later, risk weight held, give $114.38; the milestone is construction through 2029 on the PEA schedule.
7. Second deck — n/a: silver (0.9% of 2025 revenue), copper (0.4%) and zinc (0.1%) are by-products credited inside cash costs and held at $60/oz, $6/lb and $1.60/lb in every column; San Nicolás’s copper-zinc exposure (0.5% of enterprise NAV) sits at its transaction mark, which does not move with price.

Figure data: this analysis’ model (Tables 13–15), every cell recomputed at that column’s gold price and that row’s rate, never scaled. Price columns are the fixed gold grid, grid version 2026-09 ($3,000–5,000/oz); base case $4,000 at 5% real. A one-step ($500/oz) gold move shifts NAV per share by about ±$22.32, or ±19%; the deck sensitivity is tabulated in Table 16.

Deck sensitivity. The slope between grid prices, to move the valuation to any gold view; every row is linear across the grid within a few cents because no row’s margin turns negative inside it.

Table 16. Deck sensitivity — value per $500/oz step of gold ($/share unless stated; base rate, risk weights and target multiples held)

Source: this analysis, Tables 13–15, 19–21 and 23. % of base is each line’s one-step move divided by its own base-price value — a leverage read. ¹ The scenario blend steps unevenly because the discount rate and the risk weights move with each column. Every step is the difference between two recomputed grid prices of Figure 8. How to use it: start from the base-price values (NAV per share $114.56, blended fair value $145.54) and add or subtract the per-step figure for every $500/oz away from $4,000 — a flat $4,200/oz gives NAV per share of about $123.48 and a held-multiple blend of about $156.25; for a reading that also moves the rate and the risk weights, use the scenario columns of Table 23.

P/NAV price map (unweighted). Figure 8’s 5% row at the producer’s five fixed P/NAV levels — the share price each implies at every grid price; no weight, no current-price column (the market-implied deck in §7.5 places $167.92).

Table 17. P/NAV price map — share price implied by each P/NAV level at each grid price ($/share)

Source: this analysis; each cell is the Figure 8 base-rate NAV per share at that column’s gold price × the row’s P/NAV, risk weights held. The levels are the fixed producer set, so two gold producers read column-for-column. Agnico’s 1.15× target, derived in §7.3, reads $131.74 at the base price, between the 1.00× and 1.25× levels. Parity at the base price is $114.56; $167.92 sits just below the 1.50× level at $4,000.

7.3 Relative valuation

At $167.92 and 506.36 m basic shares, the market capitalisation is $85,028.8 m and enterprise value $81,885.2 m (net cash as in §7.2, leases included). Each target is the producer anchor moved by the Section 9 scorecard; no peer multiples enter. Forward means the next twelve months from 7 August: 4.8 months of 2026 guidance — at the low end the Q2 update points to — and 7.2 months of the 2027 outlook less the Barnat loss. The $4,000 base sits 54% above gold’s five-year average of $2,601/oz (August 2021–July 2026, World Bank Pink Sheet), so the targets are held at mid-cycle in every scenario and only the deck moves.

Table 18. Target-multiple driver line (one line, applied to every multiple)

Source: this analysis; each term is tied to one scored dimension, capped at ±10%, and no fact is charged under two labels, per the valuation guide linked in §7, “The valuation toolkit”. Dimensions 3, 4, 7 and 9 carry no term: the reserve life (★★★★) is below the peer median while the M&I that would lengthen it is priced once, in the resource row; growth is priced project by project in the NAV; management and ESG move no multiple. Jurisdiction carries no premium in the 5% rate, so its term sits here only. The line is printed once and reused for every multiple:

Target P/NAV = 1.00× anchor × (1 + 0.15) = 1.150× → 1.15× · Target EV/EBITDA = 7.0× anchor × 1.15 = 8.050× → 8.1× · Target FCF yield = 7.0% anchor ÷ 1.15 = 6.09% → 6.1% (a premium to value is a lower yield demanded). The rounded figures are the ones used in every table below.

Table 19. Forward EBITDA build — the next twelve months at the base price

Source: this analysis; guidance per the Q2 2026 results release (29 July 2026) and the three-year guidance (13 February 2026). Rows are numbered in the first column and run straight down the build. Volume ties to guidance with nothing added. Cost basis: total cash cost for EBITDA, cash cost plus sustaining capital for the NAV rows — the gap is the memo line. 2027 costs, G&A and exploration are not yet guided; 2026 is held in real terms. For scale, H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $5,748.4 m at a $4,672/oz realised price.

Table 20. Relative valuation — implied value per share (base case)

Source: this analysis; anchors per the valuation guide linked in §7, “The valuation toolkit” (producer: P/NAV 1.00×, EV/EBITDA 7.0×). The implied EV crosses every bridge line the NAV charges except corporate G&A, which EBITDA already carries, and the two marks’ own claims (the San Nicolás funding, the CVRs), which sit in rows the multiple does not see.

The two reads sit $12.33 apart, the multiple above the NAV: forward EBITDA prices 2026–27 output at a full multiple, while the NAV stops each mine at its reserve.

7.4 FCF-yield support

The third weighted read capitalises next-twelve-month free cash flow before growth capital at the producer yield anchor moved by the same driver line.

Table 21. FCF-yield support build — the next twelve months at the base price

Source: this analysis; guidance per the Q2 2026 results release and the 2025 Annual Report’s outlook; FY2025 depreciation and amortization per the three-year guidance’s 2025 actual column, the latest reported year. Rows run straight down the build, the memo rows continuing the count. The cash-tax rate is the mine rows’ statutory rates weighted by 2026 guided output; the company guides $3.4–3.6 bn of 2026 cash tax, including $1.3 bn for 2025. Growth capital is excluded from the valued figure by construction — the pipeline’s value is what the NAV leg carries.

The read lands at $182.26, $36.71 above the blend: a yield capitalisation treats one year of record-deck cash flow as permanent, which is why it carries a fifth of the weight.

7.5 Cross-checks

Table 22. Cross-checks — reported, reconciled, never weighted

Source: this analysis; the implied deck solved on the Tables 13–21 model; gold’s monthly averages, the five-year high and low included, per the World Bank Pink Sheet historical data ; EV/EBITDA history per S&P Global Market Intelligence via stockanalysis.com , FY2021–25 year-ends, read 30 September 2026; reserves per the three-year guidance (p.12); deals per the Gold Fields , Coeur , Regis and Equinox–Orla releases (May 2025 – May 2026), EV computed from the offer terms; consensus per stockanalysis.com , 6 Aug 2026; poll deck per Reuters via Kitco , 29 July 2026.

7.6 Scenarios & fair value

Every weighted method is re-run in every column. The rate steps out to 7% and 9% on the downside and holds at 5% on the upside; the risk weights move inside their bands; the targets are held in every column (the base sits 54% above the five-year average). The downside columns are the Section 6 risk register’s first line (Table 9): gold falling back toward $3,000 with no hedge in place, while Hope Bay is built and Barnat’s losses run through 2028.

Table 23. Scenarios & fair value — inputs, value per method and the blend by grid price ($/share)

Source: this analysis; weights per §7.1 (the producer default); scenario names by distance from the base price. Every column’s blend on a calculator: Deep Bear $3,000: 0.50 × 61.549 + 0.30 × 94.259 + 0.20 × 117.516 = 30.774 + 28.278 + 23.503 = 82.555 → $82.56; Bear $3,500: 0.50 × 90.339 + 0.30 × 119.165 + 0.20 × 149.911 = 45.169 + 35.749 + 29.982 = 110.901 → $110.90; Base $4,000: 0.50 × 131.739 + 0.30 × 144.071 + 0.20 × 182.256 = 65.869 + 43.221 + 36.451 = 145.542 → $145.54; Bull $4,500: 0.50 × 164.675 + 0.30 × 168.978 + 0.20 × 214.575 = 82.338 + 50.693 + 42.915 = 175.946 → $175.95; Deep Bull $5,000: 0.50 × 200.052 + 0.30 × 193.884 + 0.20 × 246.878 = 100.026 + 58.165 + 49.376 = 207.567 → $207.57. Inputs behind the rows, by column: Hope Bay risk weight 0.55× / 0.55× / 0.55× / 0.60× / 0.65×; Wasamac 0.35× / 0.35× / 0.40× / 0.45× / 0.50×; Upper Beaver 0.35× / 0.35× / 0.35× / 0.40× / 0.45×; Marban 0.40× / 0.40× / 0.45× / 0.50× / 0.55×; Hammond Reef 0.20× / 0.20× / 0.20× / 0.25× / 0.30×; resource factor 0.25× / 0.25× / 0.30× / 0.35× / 0.40×; capitalised G&A $1,809.2 / 2,158.8 / 2,630.8 / 2,630.8 / 2,630.8 m; the FX hedge mark $85.6 / 85.6 / 85.6 / 85.6 / 85.6 m (no instrument moves with gold; the gold book is empty); the targets 1.15× · 8.1× · 6.1% in every column; forward EBITDA $5,709.4 / 7,268.5 / 8,827.5 / 10,386.5 / 11,945.5 m; FCF before growth $3,634.5 / 4,636.4 / 5,636.8 / 6,636.4 / 7,635.5 m. The held-multiple memo also holds the base rate and risk weights — the linear read of Table 16. The FCF per share row re-runs Table 21’s bridge at each price, cash tax recomputed and $2,032.2 m of development capital held. Adding the 1.07% dividend yield, the implied total return at the base is about −12.3% — reported, not rated. Illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.

Figure 9. Value per share by method and scenario

		Scenario (gold price)
		Deep Bear$3,000	Bear$3,500	Base$4,000	Bull$4,500	Deep Bull$5,000
Method	SOTP NAV × 1.15 (50%)	$61.55(−53%)	$90.34(−31%)	$131.74(base)	$164.68(+25%)	$200.05(+52%)
	EV/EBITDA 8.1× (30%)	$94.26(−35%)	$119.16(−17%)	$144.07(base)	$168.98(+17%)	$193.88(+35%)
	FCF-yield 6.1% (20%)	$117.52(−36%)	$149.91(−18%)	$182.26(base)	$214.58(+18%)	$246.88(+35%)
	Blended fair value	$82.56(−43%)	$110.90(−24%)	$145.54(base)	$175.95(+21%)	$207.57(+43%)

Source: this analysis; each cell recomputed at its column’s deck, rate and risk weights (Table 23); shading ranked 0–9 across the whole grid. Current share price $167.92 (6 Aug 2026); market-implied deck ~$4,418/oz. The bracketed figure under each value is its change against the same row’s base-case value.

Conclusion. The blended base-case fair value is $145.54, inside a $82.56 (Deep Bear, $3,000) – $207.57 (Deep Bull, $5,000) range, against a $167.92 price — an implied −13.3%, Modestly overvalued (wide band), the qualifier earned because the Deep Bear blend sits 51% below the price. Rating-flip prices: up into Fairly valued above ~$4,104/oz (+2.6% from the base price), down into Overvalued below ~$3,477/oz (−13.1%). The market-implied deck of ~$4,418/oz says the price discounts gold about 10% above the base — between the 3- and 6-month averages — and on the NAV alone $167.92 needs ~$5,195/oz, above any monthly average on record. Forward free cash flow after all capital is $3,604.6 m, a 4.2% yield on the $85,028.8 m market capitalisation (6.6% before growth capital). The NAV anchors the blend; the FCF-yield read sits 38% above the NAV leg because it capitalises one record-deck year as a perpetuity, while the NAV stops each mine at its reserve and prices the 44.7 Moz beyond the plans at 0.30×. The assumption that drives the downside is gold itself: the equity is unhedged, and at $3,000 the blend falls to $82.56. The $76.11 producing tier says the market already pays for the whole pipeline and resource tier and a further premium on top.

Table 24. Assumptions box

Source: this analysis. Values per share to two decimals and multiples to two significant figures, computed on unrounded inputs and rounded half-up. The downside is the Section 6 register’s gold-price risk (Table 9).

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 25. Near-term catalysts

Source: Q2 2026 results release (Barnat, Odyssey, Hope Bay, San Nicolás, buyback), the February 2026 three-year guidance release (Odyssey, Detour, Upper Beaver) and the 20 April 2026 Central Lapland release. All timing is company guidance, not a guarantee.

The forward story is a sequence of dated, self-funded steps rather than one binary event. The swing factor is execution in 2027: the Odyssey shaft and the two mid-2027 decisions set whether the “more than 4 Moz” target keeps its early-2030s date.

9. Rating & verdict

Agnico is scored on the nine dimensions every analysis in this series uses, against the peer set in Section 2.11. As a producer / operator it takes the reference weights: asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation 15% each; growth, management, jurisdiction and ESG 6.25% each. No dimension is N/A.

Table 26. Scorecard rationale

Source: this analysis — each row’s evidence is in the section or table it names; peer figures per Table 4.

Weighted average: 0.75 + 0.75 + 0.60 + 0.75 + 0.60 + 0.3125 + 0.3125 + 0.3125 + 0.25 = 4.64/5 → ★★★★½, High quality.

The two-axis verdict. Quality ★★★★½, High quality (4.6/5); value read Modestly overvalued (wide band) as of 7 August 2026 — a blended fair value of $145.54 against $167.92, an implied −13.3%; verdict: great company, rich price — watch for a better entry. The price embeds a gold deck of ~$4,418/oz against the $4,000 base, and the target multiples carry a +15% premium to their producer anchors (P/NAV 1.15×, EV/EBITDA 8.1×, FCF yield 6.1%) from the five-star asset, cost, balance-sheet and jurisdiction scores and the four-star capital allocation. Quality is the durable axis; the value read moves with gold and the share price.

The bull case is that the best senior in the sector deserves a premium and gets its growth for free: at the market-implied ~$4,400 deck the shares are roughly fair, and every step Odyssey, Hope Bay and Detour take adds ounces the NAV only partly counts. The bear case is that a 1.47× P/NAV already pays for the whole pipeline and resource tier: at $3,500 gold the blend falls to $110.90, and the equity is unhedged. What tips it is gold: above ~$4,104/oz the read becomes fairly valued; below ~$3,477/oz it becomes overvalued.

To rank Agnico against every gold producer on these nine dimensions — reserves, AISC, reserve life and P/NAV — screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings (SEC EDGAR, Form 40-F and Form 6-K ): the 2025 AIF; the 2025 and 2024 Annual Reports with audited statements; the FY2025 MD&A; the Q1 and Q2 2026 MD&A and interim statements; the February 2026 reserves and three-year guidance releases; the Hope Bay (19 May), Central Lapland (20 April), Barnat (2 July) and Q2 2026 (29 July) releases; the 2026 Management Information Circular.

Market and price data. Share price per the stockanalysis.com price history (6 August 2026 close); gold, silver, copper and zinc monthly averages per the World Bank Pink Sheet to July 2026.

Peers. Each peer’s own filings, as listed under Table 4.

Methodology. Data as of 7 August 2026; market data at the 6 August close; price deck base gold $4,000/oz on the fixed $3,000–5,000 grid, every grid price run as a scenario, at a 5% real discount rate; reserves effective 31 December 2025; balance sheet 30 June 2026. No document released after 7 August 2026 is used. The peer set is the five producers in Table 4, chosen for senior or large-intermediate scale with Canadian operations or projects and no pending deal. Scorecard weights follow the producer reference case. Where documents differ, the audited statements win over the MD&A, and the MD&A over releases; the 2026 AISC redefinition (the NTI Payment moved out of cash costs) is stated wherever a revised figure is used.

Figures not drawn. The asset map (maps are not built for these analyses; Table 2 carries the footprint) and a safety trend (two years of data only).

Data gaps and documents to request. The documents that would close the Table 24, field 11 gaps: the five technical reports (Detour Lake, Canadian Malartic, LaRonde, Meadowbank, Meliadine), the February 2027 three-year guidance, the Hope Bay pre-feasibility study (year-end 2026) and economics for Upper Beaver, Marban, Hammond Reef and San Nicolás.

Re-run log. 30 Sep 2026 — re-aligned to the current template on the same 7 August 2026 as-of date: sources re-traced to the filings, the valuation rebuilt on a new mine-by-mine model with the Hope Bay decision, the Finland acquisitions, the Barnat event and full cash tax. NAV per share moved from $151.19 to $114.56 and the blend from ~$165 to $145.54; at $167.92 the implied return is −13.3% and the read moved from Fairly valued to Modestly overvalued (wide band). The quality score is unchanged at 4.6/5.

Cadence. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events; next scheduled refresh on the 2026 annual filings in Q1 2027.

Provenance: Agnico Eagle Mines Limited — Annual Information Form — 2025.

The full input register. Every figure Section 7 takes from a filing, a study or a market series, once, by document, with the table that uses it and its address — the long form of Table 10. The arithmetic and the judgements are in Tables 13–15 and 19–21, marked Derived, Input or Estimate.

Table 27. Full source register — every figure §7 takes from a filing or a market series

Notes to Table 27

1. The quoted label is Detour Lake’s total line; every other mine’s figure is its own total in the same table on the same page — Canadian Malartic as its Barnat, Odyssey and East Gouldie rows, LaRonde as its LaRonde and LZ5 rows.
2. Hope Bay’s 3,396 koz was reclassified to resources on 19 May 2026 (Hope Bay release), so the pro-forma group reserve is ~52.0 Moz; §7 values Hope Bay only through its PEA.
3. The column is footnoted “Represents metallurgical recovery percentage” (p.46) and is the one basis used for every mine. Where a mine has more than one reserve row, its payable pool weights each row’s recovery by that row’s ounces: Macassa 1,883 koz at 95.9% and the rest of its 2,200 koz at 93.5%; Goldex 786 koz at 85.9% and Akasaba West 112 koz at 77.6%; Pinos Altos 53 koz open pit at 93.6% and 216 koz underground at 94.2%; Canadian Malartic and LaRonde row by row.
4. Each figure sums two columns of the AIF’s capital table (in thousands of US$): sustaining plus sustaining capitalised exploration, and development plus development capitalised exploration; Canadian Malartic combines the Barnat pit and Odyssey rows.
5. The release prints the NPVs as “approximately $2.7 billion” and “$4.3 billion”; the $174 m is its sensitivity table’s $100/oz row.

Source: the 2025 Annual Information Form (printed page numbers); the 2025 Annual Report with its MD&A; the fourth-quarter 2025 results and three-year guidance release (13 February 2026), the Hope Bay investment-decision release (19 May 2026), the Canadian Malartic update (2 July 2026) and the Q2 2026 MD&A and interim statements, all furnished on EDGAR ; the Q2 2026 results release ; the World Bank Pink Sheet ; Reuters via Kitco ; the Bank of Canada ; stockanalysis.com . The filings’ thousands of US dollars are shown in millions. No document released after 7 August 2026 is used.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 7 August 2026: the share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value, multiples and valuation read all move, and gold-mining equities are especially volatile. Reserve, resource, study and forecast figures are estimates, prepared on the codes and bases stated beside each table, and study economics are not achieved results. The Quality × Value verdict is an analytical read, never an instruction to the reader. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from primary filings and reviewed, but readers should verify every number against the original documents before acting on it. The author holds no position in Agnico Eagle Mines Limited or in any company named here. Please do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser.