Hecla Mining (HL) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.5]

Analysis as of 6 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot of Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL). Fundamentals: the 2025 Form 10-K and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and results of 4 August 2026. Market data: NYSE close on 5 August 2026 — $16.54 a share, 677.0 m fully diluted shares. Rating: ★★★½, Solid — Overvalued (wide band) → full: the market already sees it. Market-implied deck ~$108/oz silver with gold ~$6,410. Price deck: base silver $60/oz and gold $4,000/oz — the 3-month trailing averages of $67.83 and $4,296 taken to the fixed grids — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear $40 · $3,000 / bear $50 · $3,500 / base $60 · $4,000 / bull $70 · $4,500 / deep bull $80 · $5,000); 5% real after-tax discount rate. All figures are US dollars. Refreshed each annual report and on material events. AI-assisted — see the disclaimer.

Hecla Mining is the largest silver producer in the United States and Canada, built around Greens Creek, an Alaskan mine whose by-products pay for its silver several times over. The thesis in one line: a debt-free, North American silver producer of solid quality whose share price already assumes silver near $108/oz. Why now: 2026 is its first year as a pure silver company — Casa Berardi sold, the notes repaid — just as Keno Hill runs into its permit limits. To screen it against every listed silver producer, go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Hecla Mining Company (NYSE: HL) is a silver producer headquartered in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, and founded in 1891. It runs three underground mines — Greens Creek in Alaska, Lucky Friday in Idaho and Keno Hill in the Yukon, the last still ramping up — and holds exploration districts in Nevada and Montana; it sold the Casa Berardi gold mine in Quebec in March 2026. By archetype it is a producer / operator (mining), so all nine scorecard dimensions apply (Section 9), and the valuation runs sum-of-the-parts across the three mines and a resource tier (Section 7). (AISC = all-in sustaining cost per silver ounce after by-product credits; Moz / koz = million / thousand ounces; P&P = proven and probable reserves; NAV = net asset value.)

Figure 1. Hecla Mining in numbers

Figure data: Hecla Mining 2025 Form 10-K (revenue, cash margin, production); the year-end 2025 reserves release (reserves); the Q2 2026 results (2026 guidance); the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (net cash, dividend, and 671.8 m shares outstanding on its cover at 31 July 2026); market data per Yahoo Finance daily history as of the NYSE close on 5 Aug 2026. Rating per Section 9, valuation read per Section 7.

Table 1. Hecla Mining in numbers

Source: 2025 Form 10-K (revenue, cash margin, 2025 production); Q1 2026 results (continuing-operations 2025 revenue, “Sales”, p.3); Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (shares, p.1; cash and debt, p.4–5, p.17) and Q2 2026 results (continuing-operations EBITDA and free cash flow, p.3; guidance, p.6–7; dividend, p.9); year-end 2025 reserves release , prepared under SEC S-K 1300; market data per Yahoo Finance daily history , NYSE close 5 Aug 2026. NAV, P/NAV and the read per Section 7; rating per Section 9.

Thesis in brief. Bull: every mine is in the US or Canada, the balance sheet holds $470.7 m of net cash and no senior debt, Greens Creek turns silver into near-pure margin, and the reserve covers 13.6 years of output. Bear: 2026 silver guidance is 8% below 2025, Keno Hill faces probable halts from 2027, the share count rose 21% in four years, and at $16.54 the shares price about $108/oz silver — 2.91× a NAV struck at $60. What tips it: the silver price, and whether Keno Hill comes through its permit amendments by 2029. The full rating is in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

For how silver is priced and why miners gear it, see the Silver — A Complete Market Guide ; this section is about the company. Tonnages are Hecla’s short tons (2,000 lb) and grades its ounces per ton (opt).

2.1 Portfolio overview & map

Table 2. Asset base

Source: Hecla Mining 2025 Form 10-K , Items 1–2 (ownership, holding entities, stage, 2025 output) and Note 4 (segment metal sales); 2026 guidance as revised in the Q2 2026 results , 4 Aug 2026 (p.6–7); 2025 AISC per the 2025 results reconciliations (p.19); reserves per the year-end 2025 reserves release , Table A (p.7), prepared under SEC S-K 1300, effective 31 December 2025. AISC is all-in sustaining cost per silver ounce after gold, zinc and lead by-product credits; the total covers Greens Creek and Lucky Friday only, because Hecla reports no Keno Hill unit cost until commercial production. The 2025 total includes Casa Berardi’s gold to its sale; the reserve total excludes the sold Hecla Quebec properties and the Mexican resources, whose owner was sold in the first half of 2026. Listing: every asset is held through wholly owned subsidiaries of Hecla Mining Company (NYSE: HL); none is operated by a third party.

Greens Creek is the business: 51% of 2025 silver, 44% of metal sales and 46% of silver reserves. Lucky Friday adds 31% of the silver; Keno Hill holds 23% of the reserve but has never reached commercial production. Everything Hecla now produces comes from the US and Canada. The asset map is not drawn (Section 10.1).

2.2 Revenue split by metal & by asset

Figure 2. Revenue by metal, 2025

Source: Hecla Mining 2025 Form 10-K , Note 4 “Business Segments”, sales by metal — silver $689.4 m, gold $484.1 m, zinc $132.0 m, lead $91.3 m and copper $3.2 m of $1,399.9 m in gross metal sales before smelter and refining charges. 2025 includes Casa Berardi (gold) until its sale on 25 March 2026; in the first half of 2026 continuing operations earned 69.7% of metal sales from silver ($509.4 m of $731.0 m, Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , Note 2).

Figure 3. Revenue by mine, 2025

Source: Hecla Mining 2025 Form 10-K , Note 4 “Business Segments” — segment metal sales of $612.8 m (Greens Creek), $319.1 m (Casa Berardi), $306.6 m (Lucky Friday) and $145.3 m (Keno Hill), $1,383.9 m in total; shares computed from those figures. Casa Berardi was sold on 25 March 2026.

Silver was 49% of 2025 metal sales and gold 35%, but most of that gold came from Casa Berardi; in H1 2026 silver earned 70% and gold 14% (10-Q, Note 2). Zinc and lead, a fifth of the continuing business, are what pay for Greens Creek’s silver. One mine earned 44% of 2025 sales and 58% of what remains after the sale.

2.3 Greens Creek

Greens Creek is a polymetallic underground mine on Admiralty Island, near Juneau, held through Hecla Greens Creek Mining Company and producing since 1989; it mills about 2,300–2,600 tons a day. In 2025 it produced 8.72 Moz of silver, 59.3 koz of gold, 51,387 tons of zinc and 18,213 tons of lead. By-product credits of $34.66 per silver ounce exceeded the $26.64/oz cash cost before credits, so its AISC was $(2.36)/oz, and the mine generated $256.3 m of free cash flow — 83% of the company’s $310.2 m. August guidance raised 2026 to 8.0–8.3 Moz at an AISC of $(4.25)–(3.75)/oz.

Reserves are 10.18 M tons at 10.4 opt silver, 2.3% lead and 6.3% zinc — 106.1 Moz of silver and 842 koz of gold — up from 103.7 Moz after 8.7 Moz was mined, with 88.7 Moz indicated and 23.3 Moz inferred beyond them. The mine plan runs through 2036; SLR’s 2021 technical report gave an after-tax NPV(5%) of $747 m at $21/oz silver. A 2.5% NSR royalty to Bristol Resources on an 11.2142% share (about 0.3% of the mine’s NSR) is the only charge paid; no stream applies. A pyrite circuit (Section 8) and tailings reprocessing are under study. The asset-level risk is the plan: SLR called the planned production rate “optimistic”, and 2025 output already ran above the report’s 7.3 Moz average.

2.4 Lucky Friday

Lucky Friday is a deep silver-lead-zinc mine at Mullan, Idaho, owned since 1958 and mined mostly by the underhand closed bench method adopted in 2020 against seismicity. A fire in the #2 shaft’s secondary egress halted it from August 2023 to 9 January 2024; output then set records — 5.26 Moz of silver in 2025 and 1.53 Moz in Q2 2026. Lead and zinc covered $16.34 of a $25.00/oz cash cost, leaving an AISC of $21.98/oz; sustaining capital is heavy, $77–82 m guided for 2026. Guidance is 4.9–5.2 Moz at $24.50–26.00/oz.

Reserves are 6.38 M tons at 11.2 opt — 71.6 Moz of silver — with 40.5 Moz measured and indicated and 26.0 Moz inferred beyond them; the mine replaced 5.0 Moz of its 5.3 Moz 2025 output. The mine plan runs to 2044 (the Q2 release says fifteen years); the 2021 technical report gave an after-tax NPV(5%) of $554 m at $21/oz and no royalty. The key risk is depth: seismic ground and a fire that has already stopped the mine once.

2.5 Keno Hill

Keno Hill, a high-grade silver district in central Yukon, came with Alexco in September 2022 and is held through Alexco Keno Hill Mining Company. Ramping up since June 2023, it produced 3.02 Moz in 2025 at 29.0 opt and 1.11 Moz in H1 2026 at 19.9 opt, milling 368 tons a day in Q2 against 440 permitted. It meets one of five commercial-production criteria, so no unit cost is published. It “has generated profits at current throughput rates and prices”, the 10-K says, but without the permits and development it needs, or at lower prices, “Keno Hill as currently configured would not be profitable”.

The permit constraint. Per the Q2 2026 10-Q, the waste-rock limit could be reached by about mid-2027, when “it is possible mine production would stop”; tailings storage runs out in Q2 2028; and the amendments to sustain 440 tons a day need a YESAB project proposal by end-2026 and could be complete “by approximately mid-2029”. In hand: licences QML-0009 and QZ18-044 (to 2037), the land-use approval (to June 2028) and Phase 2W tailings (July 2026); outstanding besides those amendments: the Bermingham Deep Northeast and Lucky Queen amendments (2023 report, p.37). The First Nation of Na-Cho Nyäk Dun has asked to revisit its agreement. Hecla expects “times of curtailed production, if not outright halts” in 2027–2030 and cut 2026 guidance to 2.2–2.6 Moz.

Reserves are 2.11 M tons at 25.3 opt — 53.4 Moz, down 17% on remodelling — with 14.0 Moz indicated and 11.0 Moz inferred. The 2023 technical report planned 4.39 Moz for 2026 (after-tax NPV(5%) $304.5 m at $22/oz); output has run at about 75% of plan. Remaining capital is $61–65 m in 2026 and $128 m over 2027–2034 in that plan, plus $8.7 m of closure; H1 2026 costs were $693 a ton milled against the plan’s $257 a tonne. Canada’s 1.5% royalty reached its cap in 2025. Section 7 values the mine in three phases: the guided rate to mid-2027, a halt to end-2029, a restart at 440 tons a day from 2030.

2.6 Other assets & the pipeline

Nevada — Midas (a 1,200-ton-a-day mill on care and maintenance, under a restart study), Hollister, Fire Creek and Aurora, from the 2018 Klondex deal — holds 0.9 Moz of silver and 163 koz of gold measured and indicated and gets $16 m of 2026 exploration. Montana’s Libby Exploration and Rock Creek hold 331.6 Moz of inferred silver but no federal permit, and the 10-K warns they may never be permitted. Star, San Juan Silver and Rackla complete the list; San Sebastián’s owner was sold in H1 2026.

Casa Berardi was sold to Orezone Gold (TSX: ORE) on 25 March 2026 for $170.0 m of cash, 65,757,265 Orezone shares ($106.1 m), deferred payments of $30 m at 18 months and $50 m at 30 months, and up to $241 m of contingent payments (production royalties up to $211 m, $20 m on permits, up to $10 m on the gold price). The 10-Q values the package at $385.7 m ($601.7 m undiscounted); Hecla booked a $192.5 m loss, and Orezone may set off half of any Quebec closure assurance above $150 m against the deferred payments.

2.7 Group production, reserves & costs

Table 3. Group production, 2021–2025

Source: 2025 Form 10-K , Item 1 “Ounces produced” / “Tons produced” (2023–2025) and Item 7 (2025 AISC); 2023 Form 10-K , Item 1 (2021–2022, p.39); guidance per the Q2 2026 results (p.6–7). Gold to 2025 includes Casa Berardi; 2026 gold is Greens Creek alone. Hecla publishes no 2026 lead or zinc guidance. AISC for 2023–2024 per the 2024 results , “Total Silver” reconciliation (p.28); 2021–2022 not in the filings used.

Table 4. Reserves and resources by mine, 31 December 2025

Source: year-end 2025 reserves release , Table A (reserves, p.7) and Table B (resources, p.8–9), prepared under SEC S-K 1300, effective 31 December 2025; reserves at $25.00/oz silver, $2,100/oz gold, $0.90/lb lead and $1.15/lb zinc, resources at $26.00/oz silver and $2,250/oz gold. Resources are reported exclusive of reserves; proven reserves at Greens Creek and Keno Hill are stockpiled ore only. The release’s group totals (231.1 Moz silver, 2,016 koz gold) include the Hecla Quebec properties sold in March 2026; the producing-mine gold total excludes them, and the blended grade is derived.

Silver reserves fell from 239.8 Moz to 231.1 Moz in 2025 after 17.0 Moz was mined — about half the output replaced, because Keno Hill’s remodelling took 10.9 Moz away. The reserve is 13.6 years of 2025 output (Greens Creek 12.2, Lucky Friday 13.6, Keno Hill 17.7 on paper). Hecla guides its two commercial mines to a 2026 cash cost of $(4.00)–(3.75)/oz and an AISC of $12.50–13.50/oz, after $7.10/oz in H1.

Figure 4. Silver production, 2021–2025 (Moz)

Source: Hecla Mining 2025 Form 10-K , Item 1, aggregate metal quantities, “Ounces produced” (2023–2025), and the 2023 Form 10-K (2021–2022). 2023 includes the Lucky Friday fire suspension (August–December 2023); every year includes Casa Berardi’s small silver output. The 2026 guidance of 15.1–16.1 Moz is a forecast and is not charted.

2.8 Peer positioning

The peer set for every “vs peers” claim is the listed silver and silver-gold producers above 15 Moz a year — Fresnillo, Pan American Silver, Coeur Mining and First Majestic Silver. None was under an unclosed takeover on 6 August 2026; Coeur closed its New Gold acquisition on 20 March 2026, so its 2025 figures are pre-deal.

Table 5. Peer positioning — quality metrics, 2025

Source: each company’s own 2025 filings — Fresnillo 2025 preliminary results , Pan American 2025 financial statements and 2025 MD&A , Coeur 2025 fourth-quarter results and year-end 2025 reserves , First Majestic 2025 audited financial statements , 2025 Annual Information Form (reserves, 101.07 Moz) and 2026 outlook ; Hecla per Tables 2–4 and 6. Cash margin = revenue less cost of sales excluding depreciation, over revenue (Pan American: production costs and royalties). Reserve life = silver reserves ÷ 2025 silver output. Hecla’s 2026 change uses the August guidance midpoint. Fresnillo’s silver includes Silverstream ounces; its and Coeur’s AISC are not published on a comparable basis, so AISC is left out. Screen the silver producers on grade, cost and reserve life at Metal Pilot.

Hecla ranks fourth of five on silver and cash margin and second on producing reserve life, and alone has all its silver in the US and Canada; it is one of three guiding silver lower in 2026.

3. Financials & balance sheet

2025 was the year the price arrived: revenue rose 53% to $1,423.0 m, the cash margin widened to 55.0% and net income reached $321.2 m after two loss years. The 10-K still consolidates Casa Berardi; on continuing operations (the Q2 2026 release’s recast quarters) 2025 revenue was $1,103.9 m, and H1 2026 alone produced $464.3 m of adjusted EBITDA and $279.4 m of free cash flow. The red-flag read below follows Financial Metrics for Commodity Investing .

Table 6. Five-year financial summary (years ended 31 December, as reported)

Source: 2025 Form 10-K , consolidated statements of operations and cash flows (2023–2025), Note 4 and Item 7; 2023 Form 10-K , statements (2021–2022, p.110–112) and Item 7 (dividends, p.85); adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow and net debt per Hecla’s reconciliations in the 2025 results (p.3, p.26) and the 2024 results (p.3, p.35). Cash margin = revenue less cost of sales and other direct production costs (excluding depreciation), over revenue. Free cash flow is Hecla’s definition (operating cash flow less additions); 2022 free cash flow and 2021–2022 net debt are derived on the same method from the statements. The 2025 sustaining figure is the sustaining capital in Hecla’s AISC reconciliation; growth is the residual. Adjusted EBITDA for 2021–2022 is not in the filings used. Dividend per share is shown only for 2025 ($0.00375 a quarter): the 10-K’s per-share column does not reconcile with the dividends declared in earlier years. Every year includes Casa Berardi; the 10-K was not restated for its sale.

The three-statement read. The 2025 margin is a price story; 2023 was a loss. Operating cash flow over five years ($1,166.6 m) is more than four times cumulative net income ($268.3 m), so the cash backs the profit, but free cash flow was negative in 2022–2023. The diluted share count rose 21% from 2021 to 2025: the at-the-market (ATM) programme sold 59.8 m shares for $348.5 m from September 2022, $216.2 m of it in 2025 to retire $212 m of notes.

Balance sheet and liquidity. On 30 June 2026 Hecla held $483.5 m of cash against $12.7 m of finance leases — net cash of $470.7 m — after redeeming its last $263 m of 7.25% notes on 9 April with the Casa Berardi cash. The $225 m revolver (to July 2028) was undrawn, the current ratio 5.2×, and listed equity securities, including the 65.8 m Orezone shares, were worth $154.4 m. Reclamation provisions are $127.6 m after the sale, backed by $221.7 m of surety bonds. With net cash and no maturities, leverage cannot bind even if silver halves; the question is earnings, not solvency.

Table 7. Hedge book at 30 June 2026

Source: Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , Note 8 “Derivative Instruments” (p.17–19). Policy: “up to 75% of the next five years of our foreign currency, lead and zinc metals prices and silver and gold price exposure may be covered”, and up to 100% of a specific exposure where the derivative keeps 100% of the upside (p.17). The puts cost $25 m when bought in December 2025 (2025 Form 10-K, Note 10). The zinc and lead forwards carried $14.9 m of net unrealised losses at 30 June 2026.

Hecla sells no silver or gold forward: the puts set a floor under 2026 silver and leave the upside open, and the forwards cover only the zinc and lead credits.

Table 8. Cost deck handed to the valuation

Source: Q2 2026 results , 2026 cost, capital and exploration guidance (p.7) and the guidance reconciliation (G&A, cash cost before credits and “Total By-product credits”, p.24), struck on Hecla’s second-half 2026 assumptions of $55.00/oz silver, $4,000/oz gold, $1.40/lb zinc and $0.85/lb lead; grades per Table 4 and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (p.38); royalties per the Greens Creek technical report summary (p.24), the Lucky Friday technical report summary (p.17) and the 2025 Form 10-K (Keno Hill cap); cost trend per the 2025 results (p.18) and the Q2 2026 results (p.21). Hecla publishes no cost-inflation rate; the cost trend is its own reported unit cost.

Tax. The 2025 effective rate was 33%, but cash tax was only $8.7 m, mostly Alaska’s mining license tax, because Hecla carried $577.2 m of US federal and $67.4 m of state net operating losses and $199.2 m of Canadian losses. That shield is being used up — H1 2026 cash taxes were $59.2 m — so higher silver now reaches shareholders after roughly 30% tax.

Capital returns. Since February 2025 the dividend is a $0.015-a-share annual minimum, about a 0.1% yield, after the silver-linked component was dropped. Hecla has bought back no stock since 2014; with the ATM exhausted and the notes repaid, 2026 free cash flow is accumulating as cash.

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

Rob Krcmarov became President and CEO in November 2024, after a Barrick Gold career from 2001 that ended as Executive Vice President of Exploration and Growth. Chair Catherine “Cassie” Boggs, a director since 2017 and former general counsel of Resource Capital Funds, was interim CEO from May to November 2024. Russell Lawlar has been CFO since March 2021 and Carlos Aguiar, at Hecla since 1996, COO since November 2024.

Six of the seven directors are independent — Boggs, Mark P. Board, Dean Gehring (formerly Newmont’s chief technology officer), Jill Satre, Charles B. Stanley and Alice Wong, with Krcmarov — across six standing committees, including Audit (Satre), Compensation (Stanley), Governance and Social Responsibility (Wong) and Health, Safety, Environmental and Technical (Board). Say-on-pay drew 95.5% in 2025 and Krcmarov’s 2025 pay was $5.45 m, 79% at risk. Against that, insiders own under 1%, the board is classified and changing that takes 80% of the shares. No related-party transactions were reported for 2025.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The strategy is a North American silver company, framed in the 10-Q as four pillars — operational excellence, portfolio optimisation, capital allocation by return on invested capital, and Hecla’s position as the continent’s largest silver producer (37% of US and Canadian silver in 2025). Casa Berardi sold, Mexico exited and the notes repaid, 2026 spends a record $55 m on exploration and pre-development, studies the pyrite circuit, tailings reprocessing and a Midas restart, and puts Keno Hill on a permit-first path. Hecla states no multi-year production target; after operations and capital its stated priority is “returning cash to stockholders through dividends and potential share repurchases”.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

Hecla Mining Company (NYSE: HL) is a Delaware holding company and joined the S&P MidCap 400 in 2025; its Series B convertible preferred (150,736 shares, convertible at $15.55) is also NYSE-listed. The largest holders are BlackRock (12.5%) and Van Eck (6.0%) per the 2026 proxy.

Table 9. Capital structure and corporate events

Source: 2025 Form 10-K , Note 9 (debt), Note 12 (ATM, warrants, preferred) and Item 1; 2023 Form 10-K , statement of stockholders’ equity (Alexco, p.113) and Item 7 (ATAC, p.64); 2021 Form 10-K (Klondex, p.145); Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , Notes 1, 6, 7 and 13 and MD&A (p.8, p.15, p.17, p.27, p.47); 2026 proxy statement (holders, p.101). The 2018 Klondex price is not in the filings used.

Hecla bought growth with shares (Alexco, ATAC), paid down debt with more shares, and has now turned a gold mine into cash and receivables to finish the job.

5. ESG & sustainability

Hecla reports to SASB, TCFD, GRI and the Mining Association of Canada’s Towards Sustainable Mining protocol in an annual sustainability report, overseen by two board committees and, since April 2025, a vice-president of sustainability.

Table 10. ESG snapshot

Source: 2025 Form 10-K , Item 1 “Human Capital” and “Governmental Regulation”, Item 2 and Note 16; 2023 Form 10-K , Item 1 (p.12); Q2 2026 results (TRIFR, p.1) and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (Keno Hill, p.40; bonds, p.22); 2026 proxy statement , “Sustainability” (p.10–15). The filings give no emissions, water or energy figures, and no fatality.

Two things weigh on licence to operate. Keno Hill combines a water-quality record still being corrected, a First Nation agreement reopening and permits to amend within three years. And 135 years of mining leave legacy claims with no recorded estimate: San Mateo Creek Basin in New Mexico (about $9.6 m of EPA response costs sought from the parties), Carpenter Snow Creek in Montana (total remediation may exceed $100 m across several parties) and Barker-Hughesville; Hecla also indemnifies Orezone for Quebec penalties from a 2023 waste-dam slip at Casa Berardi. Injury rates are falling. No safety-trend figure is drawn (Section 10.1).

6. Risks

Table 11. Risk register

| ID | Risk | Type | Likelihood / impact | Who or what is exposed | Mitigant | |—||—|—|—|—|—| | R1 | Silver price reversion | Commodity | 3 / 5 | Every mine; silver averaged $33.46/oz over five years against $67.83 in the last three months | Puts at $50/oz on 6.8 Moz of 2026 sales; net cash | | R2 | Keno Hill permitting cliff | Permitting / operational | 4 / 3 | 23% of silver reserves; waste-rock limit ~mid-2027, tailings full ~Q2 2028, licence amendments ~mid-2029; halts likely 2027–2030 | Phase 2W tailings approved July 2026; Hecla can slow the mine or place it on care and maintenance | | R3 | Greens Creek concentration | Operational | 2 / 5 | 51% of silver, 58% of continuing metal sales and 83% of 2025 free cash flow from one island mine | Producing since 1989; reserves replaced in 2025; tailings storage to 2045 | | R4 | Lucky Friday deep-mine incident | Operational / ESG | 2 / 4 | 31% of silver; seismic ground and a 2023 fire that stopped it for five months | UCB mining method; new secondary egress; surface cooling project | | R5 | By-product credit erosion | Commodity / cost | 3 / 3 | Greens Creek’s negative cost rests on $302 m of 2025 gold, zinc and lead credits | Zinc and lead forwards to 2027 | | R6 | Legacy environmental and closure liabilities | Balance sheet / ESG | 2 / 3 | $127.6 m of provisions; unestimated CERCLA claims (Carpenter Snow Creek, San Mateo Creek Basin, Barker-Hughesville); Quebec indemnity | Net cash; $221.7 m of surety bonds in place | | R7 | Growth-project execution | Execution / capital allocation | 3 / 2 | Pyrite circuit, tailings reprocessing and Midas restart, none with published capital; Libby without federal permits | Studies, not commitments; funded from cash | | R8 | Casa Berardi consideration | Counterparty | 2 / 2 | $80 m deferred and up to $241 m contingent from Orezone; set-off for closure assurance above $150 m | $11.5 m accrued for the set-off; Orezone shares liquid | | R9 | First Nation agreement renegotiation | Licence | 4 / 2 | Keno Hill’s Cooperation and Benefits Agreement, including unresolved wealth sharing | An agreement already in force; permitting runs through YESAB |

Source: 2025 Form 10-K , Item 1A “Risk Factors” and Note 16; Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , Keno Hill (p.38–41), Note 8 and Note 11; silver averages per the World Bank Pink Sheet , monthly to July 2026. Likelihood and impact (1 low – 5 high) are the author’s assessment.

The two risks that would break the thesis are the price and Keno Hill. Silver at $67.83/oz over the last three months is twice its five-year average, and every per-share figure in Section 7 moves with it; the puts protect 2026 cash flow, not the valuation. Keno Hill is a quarter of the reserve whose next three years Hecla itself expects to include curtailment “if not outright halts”. Concentration in Greens Creek is the less likely but larger risk: a ground failure, a tailings problem or a long shipping interruption on the island would take away the mine that pays for the rest.

Figure 5. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 11, this analysis — likelihood and impact are the author’s assessment of the risks named in the 2025 Form 10-K , Item 1A, and the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , Keno Hill. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the two emphasised (accent) points are the thesis-critical risks; the other seven are muted, and the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 6 August 2026, in US dollars (Hecla reports and trades in US dollars, so no FX conversion is needed). Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base silver $60/oz — the 3-month trailing average of $67.83/oz (May–July 2026), against a 6-month average of $73.20 and a 12-month average of $64.53, all monthly averages per the World Bank Pink Sheet to 31 July 2026. The 3-month window is the representative one because the 6- and 12-month windows still carry the January 2026 peak of $92.10; inside it the monthly prices fell from $78.0 to $58.8, so the average takes the lower grid price, $60, where the 12-month average also lands. Every grid price from $40 to $80/oz is run as a scenario (deep bear $40 / bear $50 / base $60 / bull $70 / deep bull $80). Gold, 16.2% of enterprise NAV, is decked at $4,000/oz — its own 3-month average of $4,296 (6-month $4,581, 12-month $4,311, same series), which takes the lower price of the $3,000–5,000 gold grid for the same reason (monthly prices fell from $4,587 to $4,073) — and co-moves step-for-step with silver in every scenario (silver $50 pairs with gold $3,500), because the two are a documented co-moving pair; the ratio is not fixed, and Table 18 prices a move in gold alone. Zinc, 13.4% of enterprise NAV, is held at $3,600/t in every column — its 3-month average of $3,540 (6-month $3,415, 12-month $3,244) on the fixed $2,800 / 3,200 / 3,600 / 4,000 / 4,400 zinc grid — because zinc and silver are not a documented co-moving pair; Table 18 prices one zinc step. Lead (6.2%) and copper (0.2%) are by-products held at $2,000/t (3-month $1,926, 6-month $1,917, 12-month $1,942 on the $1,600 / 1,800 / 2,000 / 2,200 / 2,400 grid) and $6.00/lb (3-month $6.14, 6-month $5.98, 12-month $5.48/lb on the fixed $4–8/lb grid); only copper’s 12-month average snaps to $5, and the 3-month window is representative. The Reuters poll’s 2026 medians of $72/oz silver and $4,509/oz gold are an unweighted cross-check; no spot deck is carried. Discount rate 5% real, after tax — the precious-metals convention, sensitised 4–7%. Share price $16.54 (NYSE close, 5 August 2026); 671.8 m basic and 677.0 m fully diluted shares; balance sheet as of 30 June 2026.

Hecla is valued on the producer (mining) archetype, run as a sum-of-the-parts: Greens Creek and Lucky Friday on their 2026 guidance and reserve lives, Keno Hill in three phases around its permit cliff, and a resource tier. The method is set out in The Commodity Investor, Part 11: How to Value Commodity Stocks . The blended fair value is $7.45 per share at the base prices ($60 silver, $4,000 gold), $5.39 at $50 and $3,500, and $9.50 at $70 and $4,500; each co-moved step moves NAV per share by $1.58 — $1.38 of it from $10/oz of silver and $0.21 from $500/oz of gold (Table 18). The two producing mines, Keno Hill to 2029 and the whole equity bridge are worth $4.19 per share, the risked Keno Hill restart $0.49 and the resource beyond the plans $1.01.

What §7 starts from. The filed figures below set the mine builds and the bridge; everything else is in the register at §10.1 (Table 29).

Table 12. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on

Source: the Q2 2026 results release (4 Aug 2026), the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , the year-end 2025 reserves release and the Greens Creek technical report summary , as named in each row; every figure also sits in the full source register, Table 29, with its page. The share price moves the read, not the valuation, so it sits in the opening block, not here.

7.1 Method selection

The weights are the producer default — NAV 50% / EV/EBITDA 30% / FCF-yield support 20% — without deviation: Keno Hill’s restart and the resource tier are inside the NAV, each risked in its own row, and the two cash-flow reads are there because they see only the producing year. The third slice is FCF-yield support because every line it needs is in Hecla’s 2026 guidance reconciliation.

Table 13. Valuation method selection

Source: method-to-archetype mapping and the default weight set per The Commodity Investor, Part 11: How to Value Commodity Stocks , “The archetype is the unit of analysis” and “The valuation toolkit”; the producer default carried without deviation. Archetype per Section 1. Input families: intrinsic 50% (one method); cash-flow 50% (two methods, at the ceiling for two reads of the same cash flow, stated here); asset & capacity and transaction 0%. Target multiples are derived in §7.3 from the archetype anchors, not from a peer set.

7.2 Net asset value

Vehicle map. Every operating mine sits in a wholly-owned subsidiary and the balance sheet carries no non-controlling interest, so nothing inside one line reappears in another. Each royalty is charged once, in the cost line that carries it; no asset carries a stream.

Table 14. Vehicle map

Source: this analysis; ownership and royalties per the Greens Creek (§1.3.2, p.24) and Lucky Friday (§1.3.2, p.19) technical report summaries and the FY2025 Form 10-K (Item 1, Keno Hill; Item 2, Properties); the balance-sheet items per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , Notes 9, 11 and 13.

Tax basis and the pools. Every author-built row takes the statutory rate on the cash margin less disclosed D&A: Greens Creek 33.44% (21% U.S., 9.4% Alaska and the 7% Alaska mining licence tax, each deductible against the next), Lucky Friday 31.31% (21%, Idaho’s 6.5% and the 7% licence tax as the technical report prints it), and Keno Hill 27%: the 15% Canadian federal rate as filed (Casa Berardi technical report, p.25) plus an estimated 12% Yukon share. D&A is each mine’s FY2025 charge. The FY2025 income-tax note shows $577.2 m of U.S. federal, $67.4 m of state and $199.2 m of foreign and provincial operating losses; the shield is declined, biasing NAV down by at most ($577.2 m × 21% + $67.4 m × 9.4% + $199.2 m × 27%) ÷ 676.973 m = $0.27 per share, and percentage depletion is not credited either. The provision is bridged from the statements at its $127.6 m carrying value; the rows take the guided cash cost before by-product credits, which excludes the reclamation line, so closure is charged once.

Stage risk is charged once, in the Keno Hill restart’s row weight, read off the de-risking scale by an itemised milestone status; the target P/NAV and the rate carry no second charge. In hand: the reserve itself (S-K 1300, a feasibility-level study behind it), the built mill and mine, quartz mining licence QML-0009 and Type A water licence QZ18-044 (both to 2037), the Class 4 land-use approval (to June 2028), the Phase 2W dry-stack approval (early July 2026), and funding from cash (Keno Hill technical report §1.10 and Table 3-1; 10-Q p.40). Outstanding: the YESAB project proposal (to be filed by year-end 2026), the QML and WL amendments that lift the waste-rock and tailings limits (about mid-2029), the Bermingham waste-rock expansion, the tailings expansion permits (first half of 2029), and the First Nation of Na-Cho Nyäk Dun’s request to reopen the benefits agreement, wealth-sharing included (10-Q p.40; 10-K FY2025, Keno Hill). That reads feasibility complete, unpermitted, 0.45–0.65×, taken at 0.55×: the funding and the built plant argue up from the floor, the reopening agreement and the 2024 and 2025–26 interruptions argue down from the ceiling. The adjacent row — permitted, funding open, 0.65× at its middle — would give $5.78 of NAV per share (+$0.10). Producing rows carry 1.00×; the resource tier carries the 0.25× conversion floor.

Funding. No equity raise is modelled: Keno Hill’s capital through the halt is paid from cash, next-twelve-month free cash flow after all capital is positive at every grid price (§7.4), and the share count holds in every scenario.

The per-asset NPV build. Reserves are S-K 1300 proven and probable, effective 31 December 2025 and depleted by the first-half 2026 production, so every life starts on 30 June 2026, the balance-sheet date to which every row is discounted (5% real, end-year). Each mine block starts from Hecla’s own 2026 guidance reconciliation — silver ounces, cash cost before by-product credits and sustaining capital — values the silver at the payable share its technical report prints, and moves every by-product credit from the guidance deck to the base prices. Life is the recoverable reserve ÷ the 2026 guided rate: 9.80 years at Greens Creek, which lands on the 10-K’s mine plan “through 2036”, and 12.85 at Lucky Friday.

Table 15. Per-asset NPV build — base case ($60/oz silver, $4,000/oz gold, 5% real)

Notes to Table 15

1. The Greens Creek technical report prints 95.7 Moz of recovered and 85.6 Moz of payable silver over its life (Table 1-1, p.21), 89.45% payable. It reproduces the mine’s FY2025 realisation: $612.8 m of metal sales less $302.4 m of by-product credits over 8.725 Moz is $35.58/oz, 89.4% of the year’s $39.80 average.
2. Lucky Friday’s report prints 72.0 Moz recovered and 67.4 Moz payable (Table 1-1, p.17), 93.61%.
3. Each by-product’s 2026 volume is its guided credit split at the prices behind it: the first-half credit (Q2 release p.20) at the January–June 2026 average benchmark ($4,694/oz gold, $3,351/t zinc, $1,943/t lead, $13,090/t copper) plus the second-half remainder at the release’s own deck ($4,000/oz, $1.40/lb, $0.85/lb, $4.00/lb), then priced at the base. The credits are realised revenue, so the volumes are payable metal.
4. Statutory rates as in the tax paragraph above; FY2025 D&A per the 10-K’s segment note. A row’s tax is floored at zero where its EBITDA falls below D&A — only Keno Hill’s phase 1, in the $40 column. Losses and percentage depletion are declined, the bound in Table 26, field 11.
5. Recoveries are the actual 2025 figures the reserves release prints (79.3% Greens Creek, 94.5% Lucky Friday, 96.2% Keno Hill, p.7). Greens Creek’s gold (842 koz), zinc and lead reserves outlast its silver at the guided rates, so silver sets the life.
6. The rate the 4 August guidance cut implies for the second half (2.2–2.6 Moz for the year, 1,113,955 oz produced to June), held to mid-2027, when the 10-Q says the waste-rock limit could stop the mine.
7. Silver in the silver-lead concentrate is 95% payable and transport, treatment and refining cost $2.65/oz payable (Keno Hill technical report, p.39 and p.358).
8. Phase-1 tons = the silver rate ÷ (19.9 oz/ton first-half head grade × 96.2% recovery), 10-Q p.38. The cost per ton is $40.1 m of first-half costs applicable to sales over 57,778 tons milled, held into the restart, where 440 tons a day would spread the fixed part thinner. The filed alternative is the 2023 technical report’s plan cost, US$257.43 per tonne over the life of mine ($233.54 per short ton; Table 18-3, p.354); it is set aside because the first-half 2026 cost runs 2.6× the plan’s US$294.40 per tonne for 2026. At the plan cost, NAV per share would be $6.04 (+$0.35).
9. $63.0 m guided for 2026 less $22.3 m spent to June, plus half of the technical report’s 2027 capital line.
10. The technical report’s 2027–29 capital ($25.16 m, $20.41 m, $15.62 m; half of 2027 already in phase 1) spread over the halt, plus a care-and-maintenance year at Hecla’s FY2025 Nevada suspension cost of $11.9 m — an estimate, Keno Hill’s own being undisclosed.
11. The reserve left at the restart — 1,920.9 kst holding 49.58 Moz — milled at 440 tons a day, the permitted rate the 10-Q names as the target once the amendments are in; lead and zinc at the reserve grades (2.9% each), 94% and 81% recovered and 93.3% and 83% payable.
12. The technical report’s $194.85 m of life-of-mine capital less $8.74 m of closure (charged in the bridge’s provision) over 1,877 kt milled, converted to short tons.
13. Milestone status and the band position are argued in the stage-risk paragraph above; the weight moves 0.45× / 0.50× / 0.55× / 0.60× / 0.65× across the scenario columns.
14. Exclusive measured and indicated silver (Table B, p.9) at each mine’s in-plan NPV per contained reserve ounce at 30 June 2026. Exclusive M&I is 84% of Greens Creek’s reserve, 57% of Lucky Friday’s and 26% of Keno Hill’s, all above the one-quarter trigger; the factor sits at the band floor because 2025 replaced only about half of the year’s output, and rises to 0.30× and 0.35× in the two bull columns.
15. Star, Fire Creek, Hollister and Midas measured and indicated (2.665 Moz silver) and Rackla’s 1,164 koz of gold, with every inferred ounce — Libby and Rock Creek’s 331.6 Moz among them — carry no plan, and Montana has no federal permits; San Sebastián left with Minera Hecla in the first half and Casa Berardi, Heva and Hosco with Hecla Quebec, so their tabled resources are excluded. The gold is priced as optionality in §7.5.
16. “Preliminary cost estimates are underway” (Q2 release p.8): without capital or operating cost no NPV can be struck; the bound is in Table 26, field 11.

Source: this analysis, from the Q2 2026 results release (p.6–8, p.20–25), the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (p.11, p.38–41), the year-end 2025 reserves release (p.7–9), the FY2025 Form 10-K (Note 4; Item 7) and the technical report summaries for Greens Creek , Lucky Friday and Keno Hill ; first-half benchmarks per the World Bank Pink Sheet . Rows are numbered in the first column and the count restarts in every block, so a Derived cell’s row 4 × row 5 points inside its own block; the accent band names the block. Values computed on unrounded inputs.

Table 16. Per-asset model — base case ($60/oz silver, $4,000/oz gold, 5% real)

Source: this analysis, from the filings cited under Table 15. Every NPV in the last column reproduces from its block in Table 15; this table adds the stage, profile, cost, capital, tax and discounting inputs behind them. Guided cash cost is before by-product credits and includes site G&A, treatment and royalties.

Table 17. NAV build-up and equity bridge (base case — $60/oz silver, $4,000/oz gold, 5% real)

Source: this analysis; rows are numbered in the first column and run straight down the bridge — the memo lines beneath the result carry no number because nothing steps through them — and every balance-sheet line per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (p.5; Notes 7, 8, 9, 11 and 13), the share count per its cover (p.1) and Notes 6 (p.15–16), corporate costs per the 2026 guidance. The senior-note redemption of 9 April 2026 and the Casa Berardi sale of 25 March 2026 both sit inside the 30 June balance sheet, so no post-period event remains to bridge. The tiers are printed to three decimals so they sum to the published NAV per share: 4.186 + 0.494 + 1.007 = 5.687 → $5.69 — and the producing tier alone sits 75% below the $16.54 price, so the market pays for the operating mines, all of the risked Keno Hill and resource value, and about $10.85 a share on top. Values computed on unrounded inputs.

Figure 6. NAV build-up and equity bridge

Figure data: Table 17. Equity NAV of $3,850.1 m equates to $5.69 per fully diluted share; the producing tier alone is $4.19. “WC & invest.” groups rows 13–14; minorities are n/a, convertibles $0.0 m and no stream exists.

Figure 7. NAV/share sensitivity — silver price (gold co-moved) × discount rate

		Silver price ($/oz), gold co-moved
		40Au 3,000	50Au 3,500	Base60 · Au 4,000	70Au 4,500	80Au 5,000
Discount rate	4%	$2.69	$4.28	$5.95	$7.63	$9.31
	5% (base)	$2.62	$4.10	$5.69	$7.27	$8.86
	7%	$2.47	$3.80	$5.22	$6.64	$8.07

Notes to Figure 7

1. Checksum — the $50 · Au 3,500 column at 5%: Greens Creek $1,890.0 m + Lucky Friday $659.1 m + Keno Hill $129.7 m + resource $521.7 m = $3,200.5 m; bridge −$422.4 m (the silver puts and collars marked at $50) → $2,778.1 m ÷ 676.973 m = $4.10.
2. Rate rows — every row is author-built and re-discounts directly: the two mine annuities, all three Keno Hill phases, the resource rows through their in-plan values, and the capitalised corporate cost. Risk weights are held; they move only in the scenarios (§7.6).
3. Cost — cash cost, sustaining capital and Keno Hill’s phase-1 and halt spend +10% at the base prices take NAV per share to $5.03 (−11.6%); every price +10% ($66 silver, $4,400 gold, the base metals with them) with costs following at half the rate (+5%) gives $6.57 (+15.5%), against $6.90 (+21.3%) on price alone.
4. FX — n/a for the valuation currency: Hecla reports and trades in US dollars. The operating exposure is Keno Hill’s Canadian-dollar costs; the 10-Q puts a 10% move at about $1.4 m of foreign-exchange gain or loss on monetary items, and C$91.8 m of forward purchases cover 2026–27 Canadian costs.
5. Stage risk — n/a: the risked Keno Hill restart is 7.8% of enterprise NAV, under a quarter. One band lower (0.45×) would give $5.59.
6. Schedule slip — n/a: the restart is 7.8% of enterprise NAV, under a tenth. For reference, a restart one year later, with the halt and its capital stretched over it, gives $5.65 (−$0.04); the milestone that would do it is the QML and water-licence amendment after the YESAB review.
7. Second deck — gold co-moves step-for-step on its own grid, so the columns carry $3,000 / 3,500 / 4,000 / 4,500 / 5,000 gold beside $40–80 silver; gold one step down alone ($3,500, silver held at $60, 5%) gives $5.48 (−$0.21, −3.6%). Zinc is held at $3,600/t in every column; one zinc step down ($3,200/t) gives $5.54 (−$0.15), the zinc forwards in the hedge line recovering part of it. Lead ($2,000/t) and copper ($6.00/lb) are held as by-products. No part of the gold or zinc exposure is carried at cost or at a mark.

Figure data: this analysis’ model (Table 15–Table 17), every cell recomputed at that column’s prices and that row’s rate, never scaled. Price columns are the fixed silver grid, grid version 2026-09 ($40–80/oz), with gold co-moved on its own 2026-09 grid ($3,000–5,000/oz); base case $60 and $4,000 at 5% real. A one-step co-moved move shifts NAV per share by about ±$1.58, or ±28%; the deck sensitivity is tabulated in Table 18.

Deck sensitivity. The slope between grid prices, to move the valuation to any silver, gold or zinc view; the Linear over column gives where each per-step figure adds up to the cent.

Table 18. Deck sensitivity — value per step of the silver, gold and zinc grids ($/share unless stated; base rate, risk weights and target multiples held)

Source: this analysis, Table 15–Table 17 and Table 25. % of base is each line’s one-step move divided by its own base-price value — a leverage read. The scenario blend steps unevenly because the discount rate and the risk weights move with each column, and below $60 the silver puts begin to pay. Every step is the difference between two recomputed grid prices of Figure 7. How to use it: start from the base-price values (NAV per share $5.69, blended fair value $7.45) and add or subtract the per-step figure for every step away from $60 and $4,000 — silver alone at $70 with gold at $4,000 gives NAV per share of about $7.06; for zinc alone add $0.15 per $400/t above $3,600. Below the base, use the down-steps: $1.58 of NAV per share and $1.88 of blend for the co-moved step to $50 · $3,500 — or read the cell straight off Figure 7; for a reading that also moves the rate and the risk weights, use the scenario columns of Table 25.

P/NAV price map (unweighted). Figure 7’s 5% row at the producer’s five fixed P/NAV levels — the share price each implies at every grid price; no weight, no current-price column (the market-implied deck in §7.5 places $16.54).

Table 19. P/NAV price map — share price implied by each P/NAV level at each grid price ($/share)

Source: this analysis; each cell is the Figure 7 base-rate NAV per share at that column’s prices (2.62 / 4.10 / 5.69 / 7.27 / 8.86) × the row’s P/NAV, risk weights held. The levels are the fixed producer set, so two producers read column-for-column. Hecla’s 1.06× target, derived in §7.3, reads $6.03 at the base prices, between the 1.00× and 1.25× levels. Parity at the base prices is $5.69; $16.54 sits above the 1.50× level at every grid price up to $80 · $5,000 ($13.29).

7.3 Relative valuation

At $16.54 and 671.8 m basic shares, the market capitalisation is $11,111.0 m and enterprise value $10,640.3 m (net cash of $470.7 m, the finance leases in it). Each target is the producer anchor moved by the Section 9 scorecard; no peer multiples enter. Forward means the next twelve months from 6 August: Greens Creek and Lucky Friday stand on their 2026 guidance, the only year guided, and Keno Hill on its second-half 2026 rate, which is its next twelve months to the mid-2027 limit. The $60 base sits 79% above silver’s five-year average of $33.46/oz and $4,000 gold 54% above its $2,601 (August 2021–July 2026, World Bank Pink Sheet), so the targets are held at mid-cycle in every scenario and only the decks move.

Table 20. Target-multiple driver line (one line, applied to every multiple)

Source: this analysis; each term is tied to one scored dimension of the Section 9 scorecard (Table 28), capped at ±10%, and no fact is charged under two labels, per the valuation guide linked in §7, “The valuation toolkit”. Concentration is scored inside Dim 1 and carries its own term there, negative against the dimension’s four stars because one mine earns most of the cash flow (risk R3). Dimensions 4, 7 and 9 carry no term: growth is priced in the NAV’s rows and resource tier, and management and ESG score at the norm. Jurisdiction is charged here, once, and not in the 5% rate. The line is printed once and reused for every multiple:

Target P/NAV = 1.00× anchor × (1 + 0.06) = 1.060× → 1.06× · Target EV/EBITDA = 7.0× anchor × 1.06 = 7.42× → 7.4× · Target FCF yield = 7.0% anchor ÷ 1.06 = 6.60% → 6.6% (a premium to value is a lower yield demanded). The rounded figures are the ones used in every table below.

Table 21. Forward EBITDA build — the next twelve months at the base prices

Source: this analysis; guidance per the Q2 2026 results release (p.7, p.24–25). Rows are numbered in the first column and run straight down the build. Volume ties to guidance with nothing added. Revenue is built metal by metal at the base prices, silver at its payable share and each by-product at the payable volume its guided credit implies (Table 15, note 3). Cost basis: cash costs before by-product credits are the same cost the NAV blocks carry before sustaining capital, site G&A, treatment and royalties inside; corporate G&A, exploration and care and maintenance follow because the unit cost excludes them. For scale, continuing adjusted EBITDA was $464.3 m in the first half of 2026 and $812.4 m over the twelve months to June, at a first-half silver average near $79/oz.

Table 22. Relative valuation — implied value per share (base case)

Source: this analysis; anchors per the valuation guide linked in §7, “The valuation toolkit” (producer: P/NAV 1.00×, EV/EBITDA 7.0×). The implied EV crosses every bridge line the NAV charges except the capitalised corporate costs, which EBITDA already carries. Values computed on unrounded inputs (6.028 → $6.03; 8.622 → $8.62).

The two reads sit $2.59 apart, with the multiple above the NAV: a 7.4× multiple capitalises the 2026 cash flow as if it lasted, while the NAV runs Greens Creek only to the end of its reserve in 2036 and charges Keno Hill’s halt. Both sit far below the market’s own 15.1× on the same EBITDA.

7.4 FCF-yield support

The third weighted read capitalises next-twelve-month free cash flow before growth capital at the producer yield anchor moved by the same driver line.

Table 23. FCF-yield support build — the next twelve months at the base prices

Source: this analysis; guidance per the Q2 2026 results release (p.7, p.24) and the segment D&A per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (Note 2, p.11); rows run straight down the build, the memo rows continuing the count. Cash tax is the statutory basis — Greens Creek’s 33.44%, the highest of the three mines’ rates, on EBITDA less sustaining capital and the 2026 run-rate D&A — the guidance year every line sits on; first-half 2026 cash taxes of $59.2 m were struck at higher prices and are not a basis. Exploration and pre-development is expensed inside EBITDA, so it is inside free cash flow after all capital. Keno Hill’s growth capital is excluded from the valued figure by construction — the halt and the restart are what the NAV leg carries.

The read lands at $9.25, $1.80 above the blend and 54% above the NAV leg — the widest of the three, because a yield capitalises one year’s cash flow in perpetuity, beyond a Greens Creek reserve that runs about ten years.

7.5 Cross-checks

Table 24. Cross-checks — reported, reconciled, never weighted

Notes to Table 24

1. EV = year-end NYSE close × year-end shares (issued less treasury) + debt − cash; EBITDA = income (loss) from operations + depreciation, depletion and amortization, both as filed with Casa Berardi consolidated. By year: 2021 $5.22 × 538.139 m + $521.5 m − $210.0 m = $3,120.6 m ÷ $255.2 m; 2022 $5.56 × 599.487 m + $527.2 m − $104.7 m = $3,755.6 m ÷ $131.5 m; 2023 $4.81 × 616.112 m + $662.8 m − $106.4 m = $3,519.9 m ÷ $104.1 m; 2024 $4.91 × 631.735 m + $550.7 m − $26.9 m = $3,625.7 m ÷ $289.7 m; 2025 $19.19 × 670.300 m + $275.8 m − $241.6 m = $12,897.3 m ÷ $674.8 m. Every input is in Table 29.
2. Silver 221.67 Moz (231.1 Moz at 31 December 2025, less first-half production grossed up for recovery) × 15 koz per Moz (the $60 : $4,000 base ratio) + Greens Creek’s gold 805.4 koz (842 koz less 27.1 koz produced at 74% recovery).

Source: this analysis; the implied deck solved on the Table 15–Table 23 model; metal monthly averages, their five-year highs and lows included, per the World Bank Pink Sheet (4 August 2026) and its historical monthly data ; EV/EBITDA history from the FY2021 , FY2023 and FY2025 10-Ks with year-end closes per Yahoo Finance ; reserves and replacement per the year-end 2025 reserves release ; the four deal prices as set out in this series’ Pan American Silver analysis; poll deck per Reuters via Kitco , 28 July 2026; consensus per Yahoo Finance via the Wayback capture of 8 August 2026 , page data of 5 August 2026.

7.6 Scenarios & fair value

Every weighted method is re-run in every column, gold moving one step of its own grid with each step of silver. The rate steps out to 7% and 9% on the downside and holds at 5% on the upside; Keno Hill’s restart weight and the resource factor move inside their bands; the targets are held in every column. The memo row also holds the rate and the weights, so it is the linear version of Table 18. The downside columns are the Section 6 silver-price risk (R1) with the by-product erosion (R5) of a lower gold price; the Keno Hill halt (R2) is in every column.

Table 25. Scenarios & fair value — inputs, value per method and the blend by grid price ($/share)

Source: this analysis; weights per §7.1 (the producer default); scenario names by distance from the base price; gold at $3,000 / 3,500 / 4,000 / 4,500 / 5,000 beside each silver price, zinc $3,600/t, lead $2,000/t and copper $6.00/lb in every column. Base blend on a calculator: 0.50 × 6.028 + 0.30 × 8.622 + 0.20 × 9.254 = 3.014 + 2.586 + 1.851 = 7.452 → $7.45. Inputs behind the rows, by column: hedge mark +$61.3 m / −$11.3 m / −$16.2 m / −$21.2 m / −$22.5 m (the silver puts paying below $50); Keno Hill restart weight 0.45× / 0.50× / 0.55× / 0.60× / 0.65×; resource factor 0.25× / 0.25× / 0.25× / 0.30× / 0.35×; capitalised corporate cost $840.2 m / $937.0 m / $1,052.1 m / $1,052.1 m / $1,052.1 m; the targets 1.06× · 7.4× · 6.6% in every column; forward EBITDA $369.6 m / $536.9 m / $704.3 m / $871.7 m / $1,039.1 m; FCF before growth $190.7 m / $302.1 m / $413.5 m / $524.9 m / $636.3 m. The FCF-per-share row re-runs Table 23’s bridge at each column’s prices, cash tax recomputed and the $63.0 m of growth capital held. Adding the 0.09% dividend yield leaves the implied total return at the base unchanged to the first decimal — reported, not rated. Illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.

Figure 8. Value per share by method and scenario

		Scenario (silver deck, gold co-moved)
		Deep Bear$40 · Au 3,000	Bear$50 · Au 3,500	Base$60 · Au 4,000	Bull$70 · Au 4,500	Deep Bull$80 · Au 5,000
Method	SOTP NAV × 1.06 (50%)	$2.47(−59%)	$4.00(−34%)	$6.03(base)	$8.04(+33%)	$10.19(+69%)
	EV/EBITDA 7.4× (30%)	$5.08(−41%)	$6.80(−21%)	$8.62(base)	$10.44(+21%)	$12.27(+42%)
	FCF-yield 6.6% (20%)	$4.27(−54%)	$6.76(−27%)	$9.25(base)	$11.75(+27%)	$14.24(+54%)
	Blended fair value	$3.61(−52%)	$5.39(−28%)	$7.45(base)	$9.50(+28%)	$11.63(+56%)

Source: this analysis; each cell recomputed at its column’s decks, rate and risk weights (Table 25); shading ranked 0–9 across the whole grid. Current share price $16.54 (5 Aug 2026); market-implied deck ~$108/oz silver with gold at ~$6,410. The bracketed figure under each value is its change against the same row’s base-case value.

Conclusion. The market-implied deck is the finding: at $16.54 the blend asks for ~$108/oz silver with gold at ~$6,410, above the $92.10 monthly high the series printed in January 2026. The blended base-case fair value is $7.45, inside a $3.61 (Deep Bear, $40 · $3,000) – $11.63 (Deep Bull, $80 · $5,000) range, against a $16.54 price — an implied −55.0%, Overvalued (wide band), the qualifier earned because the Deep Bear blend sits 78% below the price. Free cash flow after all capital for the next twelve months is $350.5 m, a 3.2% yield on the $11,111.0 m market capitalisation (3.7% before growth capital). Rating-flip prices: the read is already the lowest band, so there is no flip down; it rises into Modestly overvalued above ~$82/oz silver with gold at ~$5,093 (+36.4% from the base price). The NAV anchors the blend because the archetype puts it there and because it is the only method that sees Greens Creek’s reserve end in 2036 and Keno Hill’s halt; the FCF-yield read sits 54% above it because it capitalises one year forever, a gap the weights already cap. The assumption that drives the downside is silver itself: a return toward $40 takes the blend to $3.61, where the puts cushion only the second half of 2026. The $4.19 producing tier says the market pays $12.35 a share above the cash-generating mines — $1.50 of risked Keno Hill and resource value and $10.85 more than the NAV counts; the Street’s $23.53 target sits further still from the model, on its own history rather than the anchor.

Table 26. Assumptions box

Source: this analysis, from the filings and series in Table 29. Values per share to two decimals and multiples to two significant figures, computed on unrounded inputs and rounded half-up.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 27. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Source: Q2 2026 results , “Project Pipeline Update” and capital guidance (p.7–9); Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , Keno Hill (p.40–41) and the Casa Berardi sale (p.27). Timings are company targets, not commitments; none of the projects has published capital.

The catalysts are mostly ounces from ground Hecla already holds. The swing factor is Keno Hill: the pyrite circuit would add more silver than Keno Hill’s 2026 guidance cut removed (about 0.65 Moz at the midpoints) but far less than a Keno Hill halt would, so whether 2027–2028 production grows depends on the Yukon permits.

9. Rating & verdict

Hecla is scored on the nine dimensions every Metal Pilot analysis uses, against the Section 2.8 peer set, with the producer weighting — 15% each for asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation, 6.25% for the other four. None is not-applicable.

Table 28. Scorecard rationale

Source: each row cites its evidence in this analysis; peer figures are those of Table 5, from each company’s own 2025 filings.

Weighted average: (0.15 × 4) + (0.15 × 3) + (0.15 × 4) + (0.15 × 5) + (0.15 × 2) + (0.0625 × 2) + (0.0625 × 3) + (0.0625 × 5) + (0.0625 × 3) = 0.60 + 0.45 + 0.60 + 0.75 + 0.30 + 0.125 + 0.1875 + 0.3125 + 0.1875 = 3.51/5 → ★★★½, Solid.

The two-axis verdict. Quality ★★★½ (Solid, 3.5/5); value read Overvalued (wide band) as of 6 August 2026, implied −55.0% from $16.54 (677.0 m fully diluted shares) to a $7.45 blended fair value; verdict: Full — the market already sees it. The shares price about $108/oz silver with gold at ~$6,410, against this analysis’s $60 and $4,000 base deck — above even January 2026’s $92.10 monthly high. The target multiples sit 6% above their producer anchors — P/NAV 1.06×, EV/EBITDA 7.4×, an FCF yield of 6.6% — because the balance sheet (Dim 5), jurisdiction (Dim 8), asset quality (Dim 1) and reserves (Dim 3) outweigh capital allocation (Dim 6), Greens Creek’s concentration and cost (Dim 2). The quality axis is the durable one; the value axis moves with silver.

The bull case is quality you can verify: no debt, no country risk, a flagship with negative costs and reserves for more than a decade. The bear case is that the price already pays for much more than this: the market values Hecla at 15.1× the next twelve months’ EBITDA at the base prices, while output falls in 2026 and a quarter of the reserve may stop. What tips it is silver — the read improves to Modestly overvalued only above about $82/oz with gold at about $5,093 — and, over three years, Keno Hill’s permits and the pyrite circuit.

To rank Hecla against every listed silver producer on the same nine dimensions — reserves, AISC, reserve life and P/NAV — screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Sources. Company filings (SEC EDGAR): the 2025 Form 10-K , the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q , the 2023 and 2021 Forms 10-K, the 2026 proxy , results for Q2 2026 , Q1 2026 , 2025 and 2024 , the 2026 guidance , year-end 2025 reserves and the Casa Berardi sale and closing . Technical reports (S-K 1300): Greens Creek , Lucky Friday , Keno Hill . Market: World Bank Pink Sheet , Yahoo Finance , Bank of Canada. Peers: their own 2025 filings (Table 5).

Methodology. Data as of 6 August 2026 (market close 5 August, $16.54 on 677.0 m fully diluted shares; balance sheet and interim statements 30 June 2026; annual statements 31 December 2025; guidance as revised 4 August 2026; reserves 31 December 2025). Price grid: silver $40–80/oz and gold $3,000–5,000/oz, every step run as a scenario. Producer archetype, silver sector; valuation and weights per Section 7, scorecard per Section 9. Filings were preferred to releases where they differ (Casa Berardi cash $170.0 m, not $160 m). Provenance: Hecla Mining Company — Form 10-K and Form 10-Q — 2025–2026.

Figures not drawn. The asset map is skipped because the blog’s figure library has no map component (Table 2 carries the footprint); the financial-summary chart because one series would only repeat Table 6; and the safety trend because Hecla changed its injury measure in 2024, leaving no comparable series.

Data gaps — documents to obtain. A pyrite-circuit study (capital and cost); an updated Keno Hill technical report (care-and-maintenance cost, permit capital, Yukon tax); current Greens Creek and Lucky Friday technical reports (the 2021 ones use $21/oz silver).

Re-run log. 2 October 2026 — re-aligned to the current analysis template: every figure re-traced to the filings; Casa Berardi shown as sold (25 March 2026); the market layer re-read at the 5 August close ($16.54); the valuation re-run on a model at a $60/oz silver base deck — $7.45 blended fair value, implied −55.0%, Overvalued (wide band), against ~$108/oz market-implied silver; the rating re-scored at 3.5/5 Solid.

The full source register. Every figure §7 takes from a filing or a market series, in document order, one band per document; the load-bearing subset opens §7 as Table 12.

Table 29. Full source register — every figure §7 takes from a filing or a market series

Source: the Q2 2026 results release ; the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q ; the year-end 2025 reserves release ; the Form 10-K for FY2025 , FY2023 and FY2021 — the FY2025 text copy carries no page markers, so its cells cite no page; the technical report summaries for Greens Creek , Lucky Friday , Keno Hill and Casa Berardi ; the FY2025 and FY2024 results releases; the World Bank Pink Sheet , Yahoo Finance , Reuters via Kitco , the Yahoo Finance quote page and the Bank of Canada . Figures as each document prints them, converted to $ m once, in the Value column. The share price is in neither input table: it sits in §7’s opening block.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed advisor. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 6 August 2026: the share price, the silver and gold prices and the valuation move, and every forward figure is an estimate. The two-axis verdict is an analytical read of quality and price, not an instruction to buy or sell. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from Hecla’s filings and dated market series and checked, but readers should verify before acting. The author holds no position in Hecla Mining Company.