Pan American Silver (PAAS) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.2]

Analysis as of 8 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot. Fundamentals: the 2025 annual filings and Q1 2026 interim filings; the Q2 2026 results (12 August) postdate it. Market data: NYSE close on 7 August 2026 — $51.22 a share, 421.7 m fully diluted shares. Rating: ★★★, Average — Modestly overvalued (wide band) → full: the price already assumes more than the base deck. Market-implied deck ~$4,767/oz gold with silver ~$75.3/oz. Price deck: base gold $4,000/oz and silver $60/oz — the 3-month trailing averages of $4,296 and $67.83 taken to the fixed grids — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear $3,000 · $40 / bear $3,500 · $50 / base $4,000 · $60 / bull $4,500 · $70 / deep bull $5,000 · $80); 5% real after-tax discount rate. All figures are US dollars. Refreshed each annual report and on material events. AI-assisted — see the disclaimer.

Pan American Silver holds the largest silver reserve in its peer group yet earned about 72% of its 2025 revenue from gold, across eleven mines in seven countries. The thesis in one line: a well-financed, widely spread producer whose shares already price both metals above this analysis’s base deck. Why now: 2025 was its first clean year after the Yamana and MAG deals — $1.0 bn of free cash flow and up to $1 bn of returns pledged for 2026 — and the Skarn is moving from study to decline. To screen it against every listed silver producer, go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX: PAAS; NYSE: PAAS) is a senior silver-and-gold producer headquartered in Vancouver. It runs eleven producing mines — Jacobina in Brazil; El Peñon and Minera Florida in Chile; Shahuindo and Huaron in Peru; Cerro Moro in Argentina; Timmins in Canada; La Colorada, Dolores and a 44% stake in Juanicipio in Mexico; and San Vicente in Bolivia — and holds the suspended Escobal mine in Guatemala, the La Colorada Skarn study and the Navidad deposit in Argentina. By archetype it is a producer / operator (mining), so the full nine-dimension rubric applies (Section 9) and the valuation runs sum-of-the-parts, with the Skarn, Escobal and Navidad as non-producing tiers (Section 7). (AISC = all-in sustaining cost, net of by-product credits; koz / Moz = thousand / million ounces; 2P = proven and probable reserves; M&I = measured and indicated resources; NSR = net smelter return royalty.)

Figure 1. Pan American Silver in numbers

Figure data: audited 2025 financial statements (revenue, cash margin) and the 2025 MD&A (production, reserves); the 2025 production and 2026 guidance release (guidance); the Q1 2026 MD&A (net cash) and returns release (dividend); market data per stockanalysis.com as of the NYSE close on 7 August 2026. Rating per Section 9, valuation read per Section 7.

Table 1. Pan American Silver in numbers

Source: audited 2025 financial statements (revenue, p.8); 2025 MD&A for production (p.7) and reserves and resources (p.54–56), prepared under NI 43-101 and CIM definitions; 2025 production and 2026 guidance release (p.4); Q1 2026 financial statements (revenue, operating cash flow, shares) and Q1 2026 MD&A (cash, debt and net cash, p.20); the returns release (dividend); market data per stockanalysis.com , 7 Aug 2026. Enterprise value is market capitalisation less the company’s $679 m of net cash, which already deducts leases; fully diluted shares add equity-settled RSUs and in-the-money options by the treasury method and exclude the 15.6 m CVR shares that issue only on an Escobal restart. Net cash excludes equity securities held as investments. Reserve life = reserves ÷ 2025 output. NAV and the read per Section 7.

Thesis in brief. Bull: no mine above 18% of revenue and no country above 23%; net cash and $2.4 bn of liquidity; $1.0 bn of 2025 free cash flow with 35–40% of it pledged back; silver guided up 14% in 2026; and a Skarn study worth $2.6 bn after tax at $45/oz silver. Bear: the lowest cash margin in its peer group, producing reserves of about eight years without Escobal, a share count doubled since 2021, and jurisdictions where fiscal terms keep moving. At $51.22 the shares sit 1.70× a NAV struck at $4,000 gold and $60 silver. What tips it: the metal prices, and whether the Skarn is sanctioned on terms that add value per share. The full rating is in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

Pan American does not hedge precious metals. For how silver is priced and why miners gear it, see the Silver — A Complete Market Guide ; this section is about the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview & map

Table 2. Asset base

Source: Pan American Silver 2025 MD&A , “Operating Metrics” (p.30) for 2025 output, the AISC reconciliations (p.36, p.38) for mine AISC and “Mineral Reserves as of June 30, 2025” (p.54), prepared under NI 43-101 and CIM definitions; 2026 guidance per the 2025 production and 2026 guidance release , 20 January 2026 (p.4, p.6); ownership, holding entities, Juanicipio and Escobal per the 2025 Annual Information Form (p.12–16, p.36–39, p.57–59). Output, AISC and reserves are attributable — San Vicente at 95%, Juanicipio at 44% and only from the 4 September 2025 closing; AISC is by-product, per ounce sold. The Juanicipio reserve is Fresnillo’s JORC estimate, reviewed for Pan American; the AIF prints tonnes and grade only, so the contained ounces (≈58.3 Moz Ag, derived) sit outside the 452.3 Moz. Escobal’s reserve uses $20/oz silver and has not been updated since the 2019 Tahoe acquisition. Measured and indicated resources are reported exclusive of reserves — 1,130.6 Moz Ag and 7,882 koz Au, with 405.6 Moz Ag and 7,818 koz Au inferred (MD&A p.55–56); by mine, Jacobina 5,021.8 koz, El Peñon 451.0 koz, Minera Florida 405.3 koz, Timmins 305.1 koz and Shahuindo 182.0 koz of gold, and Huaron 16.2 Moz, La Colorada 14.8 Moz, Cerro Moro 8.3 Moz and San Vicente 6.0 Moz of silver; Juanicipio’s 44% resource is reported inclusive of its reserve (≈76.7 Moz Ag, derived; AIF p.39). Mineral resources are not mineral reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. Listed: Public (TSX: PAAS; NYSE: PAAS).

Two facts matter. Silver is the name, gold is the business: four of the five largest earners are gold-segment mines and the fifth, Cerro Moro, earns mostly gold, while Escobal holds 58% of the silver reserve and produces nothing. And producing reserves are short: excluding Escobal, silver reserves cover 8.2 years of 2025 output and gold 8.5. No asset exceeds 18% of 2025 attributable revenue and no country 23% (Chile). The asset map is not drawn (Section 10.1).

2.2 Where the revenue and the value sit

Figure 2. Revenue by metal, 2025

Figure data: derived from the 2025 MD&A , “Quantities and realized prices of metal sold” (p.14) — 752.9 koz of gold at $3,459/oz and 20,067 koz of silver at $40.78/oz, plus zinc, lead and copper — which sums to $3,614 m against reported revenue of $3,619 m. The audited 2025 financial statements , Note 26 (p.52), report “Refined silver and gold” as one $2,930 m line and concentrates by type ($688 m), so no filed split by metal exists.

Figure 3. Attributable revenue by operation, 2025

Figure data: audited 2025 financial statements , Note 26 “Segmented Information” (p.49), “Attributable Consolidated Total” $3,776 m; reported revenue of $3,619 m removes the 44% Juanicipio share and adds the non-controlling interests. In Q1 2026 Juanicipio earned $181 m, 13.6% of attributable revenue (Q1 2026 financial statements , p.17).

2.3 Jacobina

Jacobina, in Bahia, Brazil, is the largest earner ($658 m) and the gold-reserve anchor: 3.13 Moz at 1.77 g/t, 49% of group gold reserves and 16 years of 2025 output, mined by long-hole stoping at about 8,500 t/d. It pays Brazil’s 1.5% CFEM levy and no other royalty, and a SUDENE incentive cuts its income-tax rate to 6.25% until 2031. 2026 brings $53–57 m of project capital for new carbon-in-pulp tanks while filtration and paste plants are engineered; the asset risk is tailings capacity beyond 2032.

2.4 El Peñon

El Peñon, in Chile’s Antofagasta Region, earned $596 m at $1,104/oz, the gold segment’s cheapest full-scale mine. It pays NSRs of 1–2% to Triple Flag Precious Metals and 2% to Soquimich, plus Chile’s Specific Mining Tax. Its weakness is life: 625.6 koz of gold reserves is 5.4 years of output, so it depends on converting its 451 koz of exclusive measured and indicated resource.

2.5 Juanicipio

Pan American bought 44% of Juanicipio, in Zacatecas, with MAG Silver, closing on 4 September 2025 for $2,042 m — $500 m in cash and 60.2 m shares. Fresnillo holds 56% and operates; the stake is equity-accounted ($2,009 m on 31 March 2026) and pays Pan American only through dividends ($44 m in December 2025). At $(3.18)/oz AISC and 6.00–6.50 Moz guided for 2026, it is the portfolio’s best mine and this year’s largest silver contributor, with about 13 years of life. The risk is control: Pan American neither operates it nor sets its dividend.

2.6 La Colorada and the Skarn

The La Colorada vein mine produced 6.02 Moz in 2025 from 90.7 Moz of reserves, with a plan to 2039. Its costs are rising — 29% of 2025’s silver came from a neighbour’s concession under a net-profit share (about $30 m paid) — and Triple Flag streams its payable gold at $650/oz.

The value is below it. The La Colorada Skarn revised preliminary economic assessment (24 March 2026) shows an after-tax NPV(5%) of $2.6 bn and a 17% IRR at $45/oz silver ($4.2 bn at $60/oz and $3,400/t zinc), on $1.9 bn of initial capital: construction in 2026–2031, two years of ramp-up, then 15.8 Moz a year in 2034–38 (19.1 Moz for the expanded mine) over 37 years, on resource, not reserve. Approvals: the 588-level decline needs no further permit; 2025 permits cover twin declines, ventilation shafts, waste storage, camp and roads; the federal environmental (MIA), land-use (CUS) and water permits for the shafts, the 15,000 t/d plant and the tailings facility are outstanding. On 27 April 2026 the board approved $265 m over five years for the decline ($8 m spent in Q1), lifting 2026 Skarn spend to $92–95 m; a partner is under discussion. The project is not sanctioned.

2.7 Shahuindo

Shahuindo, a Peruvian heap-leach gold mine, earned $482 m from 132.2 koz at $1,614/oz in 2025, on reserves of 977.4 koz at about 0.4 g/t (7.4 years). Leaching costs lift 2026 AISC guidance to $1,825–1,950/oz, and a 2025 fatality cost the site its Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM) Level A rating.

2.8 Cerro Moro

Cerro Moro, in Argentina’s Santa Cruz province, produced 2.51 Moz of silver and 83.1 koz of gold; gold credits put its silver AISC at $(14.04)/oz. Royal Gold’s stream stepped down in July 2025 to 9% of silver at 30% of spot. Reserves of 149.8 koz of gold and 5.0 Moz of silver cover about two years, so the mine lives on resource conversion; a late-2025 Santa Cruz law requires 90% of mine workers to be local residents.

2.9 Timmins

Timmins — the Timmins West and Bell Creek underground mines in Ontario — produced 103.6 koz at $2,443/oz, the high-cost end of the segment, on 8.2 years of reserves. A $146 m first phase of the Timmins Camp Project, launched on 1 June 2026, deepens the Bell Creek shaft to 1,705 m for commissioning in the first half of 2029.

2.10 Escobal

Escobal, in Guatemala, holds 264.5 Moz of silver reserves at 333 g/t — 58% of the group total — and produces nothing. Its licence was suspended in July 2017 over the State’s failure to consult the Xinka people, and a Constitutional Court order of 3 September 2018 keeps it suspended until the Ministry of Energy and Mines completes a consultation under ILO 169, the International Labour Organization’s convention on Indigenous peoples. That consultation, slowed since January 2024, has no timeline and no restart date; holding the mine cost $21 m in 2025. The reserve has not been updated since the 2019 Tahoe acquisition, and Tahoe’s contingent value rights would hand 15.6 m shares to former holders on a restart.

2.11 Other operations and the pipeline

• Huaron (Peru): 3.34 Moz at $21.55/oz on 40.7 Moz of reserves.
• San Vicente (Bolivia, 95%): 2.93 Moz, with 2026 AISC guided at $41.00–43.00/oz and under four years of reserves.
• Minera Florida (Chile): 68.6 koz at $2,537/oz on 3.9 years of reserves.
• Dolores (Mexico): mining ended in Q3 2024; residual leaching and $15–17 m of 2026 reclamation.
• Navidad (Argentina): 632.3 Moz of silver measured and indicated, but Chubut law bans open pits and cyanide, likely making development “uneconomic or not possible” (AIF); carried at $191 m, under a silver stream whose terms are undisclosed.
• Manantial Espejo and Alamo Dorado (reclamation), La Bolsa and Canadian exploration ground, including Larder from MAG.

2.12 Group production, reserves & costs

Table 3. Group production and segment AISC, 2021–2025

Source: 2025 MD&A , “Consolidated” operating table (p.7) and AISC reconciliation (p.33) for 2024–2025; 2024 MD&A (p.6, p.29) and 2023 MD&A (p.7, p.30) for 2022–2023; 2022 MD&A (p.35) for 2021 AISC and the 2023 Annual Information Form (p.20) for 2021 production. Gold includes the Yamana mines from 31 March 2023 and La Arena until its 2 December 2024 sale; 2025 is attributable and includes 44% of Juanicipio from 4 September. AISC is per ounce sold, net of by-product credits; the 2021–2022 gold segment predates Yamana. Production history before 2021 is not shown because the source set’s filings do not reach it.

Figure 4. Attributable silver production, 2021–2025

Figure data: Table 3. The 2026 guidance of 25.0–27.0 Moz is a forecast and is not charted.

Reserves. Silver reserves fell from 468.0 to 452.3 Moz and gold from 6,651 to 6,339 koz in the year to 30 June 2025, after depletion and two sales; exploration replaced 10.3 Moz of silver and nearly 500 koz of gold. Behind them sit 1,130.6 Moz of exclusive silver measured and indicated resource, 83% of it at Navidad and the Skarn.

Costs. 2026 guidance — $15.75–18.25/oz silver segment, $1,700–1,850/oz gold — assumes $70 silver and $4,200 gold, which lift royalties and by-product credits alike (Q1 2026 silver AISC: $6.63/oz).

2.13 Peer positioning

The peer set for every “vs peers” claim here is the listed silver and silver-gold producers of more than 15 Moz a year — Fresnillo, Coeur Mining, Hecla Mining and First Majestic Silver. None was under an unclosed takeover on 8 August 2026: Coeur closed its New Gold acquisition on 20 March 2026 (its 2025 figures are pre-deal), and First Majestic is selling San Martin, not being sold.

Table 4. Peer positioning — quality metrics, 2025

Source: each company’s own 2025 filings — Fresnillo 2025 preliminary results , Coeur 2025 fourth-quarter results and year-end 2025 reserves , Hecla 2025 results and year-end 2025 reserves , First Majestic 2025 audited financial statements , 2025 reserves and 2026 outlook ; Pan American per Tables 2 and 5. Cash margin = revenue less cost of sales excluding depreciation, over revenue (Pan American: production costs and royalties). Reserve life = silver reserves ÷ 2025 silver output. Fresnillo’s silver includes Silverstream ounces; its and Coeur’s AISC are not published on a comparable basis, so AISC is left out. Screen the silver producers on grade, cost and reserve life at Metal Pilot.

Pan American is second in silver and first in gold; its reserve life leads only through Escobal, its cash margin trails. What no peer matches is the spread: five countries above 10% of revenue each.

3. Financials & balance sheet

The three statements are read as the Financial Metrics for Commodity Investing guide sets out: is the margin real, does the balance sheet survive a lower price, does the cash arrive?

Table 5. Five-year financial summary (years ended 31 December)

Notes to Table 5

1. Cash margin = revenue less production costs and royalties, over revenue; free cash flow = operating cash flow less capex paid; EBITDA = earnings from operations plus depreciation and amortization — all three derived from filed lines, as the company publishes no EBITDA.
2. Sustaining capital is the company’s non-GAAP measure — cash capex plus lease payments and loan repayments, less project (investment) capital — so the two capital lines do not add to the cash line; from 2025 it includes Pan American’s share of Juanicipio’s capital.
3. The company’s own “net cash” excludes equity securities held as investments: $391 m at 31 December 2025.

Source: audited 2025 financial statements (p.7–9) and 2025 MD&A (p.5, p.28, p.34) for 2025; 2024 financial statements (p.6–8) and 2024 MD&A (p.4, p.30) for 2024; 2023 financial statements (p.8–10) and 2023 MD&A (p.5, p.25, p.31) for 2022–2023 and the 2022 MD&A , “Reconciliation of payments for mineral properties, plant and equipment and sustaining capital” (p.36), for the 2021 capital split; 2022 financial statements (p.6–8) for 2021, whose figures are in thousands of US dollars, converted here. 2021 revenue growth is not shown because the 2020 comparative is outside the source set. IFRS, US dollars, calendar year.

Earnings and cash. The record is an acquisition digested. Yamana’s mines lifted 2023 revenue 55%, but 2022–2023 carried $157 m of deal costs, a $99 m impairment, inventory write-downs and net losses. 2025 is the first clean year: a 52.6% cash margin, $978 m of net earnings (adjusted: $959 m, so no large add-backs) and $1,019 m of free cash flow. Cash backs the profit: five-year operating cash flow of $2.93 bn against $0.74 bn of net earnings, free cash flow positive in four years of five, and sustaining capital flat near $280 m while output grew.

Balance sheet. On 31 March 2026 Pan American held $1,614 m of cash and short-term investments — plus $199 m inside Juanicipio attributable to its 44% — against $845 m of debt carried on the balance sheet: the 4.63% notes due December 2027 ($279 m; $283 m face), the 2.63% notes due August 2031 ($433 m; $500 m face), $4 m of construction loans and $129 m of leases. Net cash was $679 m, the $750 m revolver (to November 2028) was undrawn, liquidity was $2.4 bn, the current ratio 2.8×, and the ratings Baa3 and BBB−. Stress test: a 10% move in all metal prices moves annual revenue by about $355 m, so a 30% fall would take roughly $1.07 bn off 2025’s $1.73 bn of EBITDA and still leave net cash; cash covers the only pre-2028 maturity five times. Other 31 March claims the valuation bridges: $212 m of receivables, $565 m of payables, $223 m of tax payable, $36 m of litigation and $68 m of severance provisions, $90 m of equity securities and the $37 m La Arena contingent payment. The real long-dated liability is closure: the asset-retirement provision is $590 m, against an undiscounted, inflated estimate of $935 m.

Hedging. No precious-metal, base-metal or diesel hedges — only Canadian-dollar ($27 m at C$1.40) and Brazilian-real ($9 m at R$6.95) forwards to December 2026.

Table 6. Cost deck handed to the valuation

Source: 2025 production and 2026 guidance release (p.4–6); 2025 MD&A (p.20–23, p.36, p.38); Q1 2026 MD&A (p.3) for the revised project capital; 2025 Annual Information Form (p.23, p.30, p.42, p.50) for duties, streams and the Jacobina incentive; audited 2025 financial statements , Note 23 (p.44–45), and the cash-flow statement (p.9) for tax. Guidance is a forecast, not a result.

Capital returns and dilution. Pan American returned $221 m in 2025 ($175 m of dividends, $46 m of buybacks) and on 5 May 2026 committed 35–40% of attributable free cash flow — up to $1 bn in 2026: $305 m of dividends ($0.18 a quarter) and buybacks under a bid for up to 21.1 m shares to March 2027. The red flag is the share count: diluted shares rose from 210 m to 382 m over 2021–2025 (Yamana cost 153.8 m shares, MAG 60.2 m), with 421.4 m outstanding on 31 March 2026 — though operating cash flow per diluted share still rose from $1.86 to $3.49.

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

Michael Steinmann, a geologist (PhD, ETH Zurich) with the company since 2004, has been CEO since January 2016. Ignacio Couturier, also there since 2004, has been CFO since March 2022. Scott Campbell, formerly of Dundee Precious Metals, became COO on 20 October 2025, succeeding Steven Busby, now special advisor to the CEO. Christopher Lemon is Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel.

The board has ten directors, nine independent, chaired since May 2021 by Gillian Winckler, who spent 16 years in strategy and M&A at BHP Billiton. Its five committees are Audit (Jennifer Maki), Human Resources and Compensation (Charles Jeannes), Health, Safety and Environment (John Begeman), Nominating and Governance (Neil de Gelder) and Communities and Sustainable Development, whose chair Kathleen Sendall retired at the 30 April 2026 meeting, when Ignacio Bustamante, a former Hochschild Mining CEO, joined. No shareholder holds over 10% and directors and officers own 0.07%. The signal to weigh: say-on-pay fell to 80.8% from 95.4% after C$14.8 m of 2025 CEO pay.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The stated mission is to be “the world’s premier silver producer”, through growth, reserve replacement and acquisitions where it already works. The last decade was built by acquisition — Tahoe Resources (2019: Escobal), Yamana Gold’s Latin American mines (2023: Jacobina, El Peñon, Minera Florida, Cerro Moro) and MAG Silver (2025: 44% of Juanicipio) — with non-core sales behind them, chiefly La Arena to Zijin (December 2024).

The 5 May 2026 framework ranks uses of cash as sustaining capital, balance sheet, organic growth, then returns. The named growth is organic — the Skarn decline ($265 m), Jacobina, the Bell Creek shaft ($146 m) and a $132–135 m, 600,000-metre exploration programme — toward 25–27 Moz of silver and 700–750 koz of gold in 2026 and, if the Skarn is built, 19.1 Moz a year from La Colorada in 2034–38.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

Table 7. Capital structure and corporate events

Source: Q1 2026 financial statements , Notes 11 and 14 (p.13–15), for shares, options, RSUs and CVRs; NCIB release , 4 March 2026; 2025 Annual Information Form (p.10, p.16–17, p.36, p.90) for the CVR terms, subsidiaries, Juanicipio, listings and ratings; audited 2025 financial statements , Notes 8 and 12 (p.26, p.36–37), for MAG and La Arena; 2024 financial statements , Note 8 (p.25), for Yamana. Listed: Public (TSX: PAAS; NYSE: PAAS).

The structure is simple — mostly wholly-owned mines, one joint venture, no controlling holder — with two overhangs: the Tahoe rights (15.6 m shares, 3.7% of today’s count, if Escobal restarts) and a register doubled since 2021 by share-funded deals.

5. ESG & sustainability

Table 8. ESG snapshot

Source: 2025 Annual Information Form (p.19, p.24–28, p.57, p.66); 2025 Sustainability Report release , 28 May 2026. Absolute emissions, water volumes, the tailings-facility count and TRIFR are not in the source set (Section 10.1).

The defining ESG fact is Escobal: a mine stopped not by geology but by the State of Guatemala’s failure to consult the Xinka people, and restartable only when that consultation ends. Elsewhere the record is mixed. Two workers died in 2025 — at Shahuindo and Jacobina, which lost their TSM Level A ratings — and the injury rate was, in the AIF’s words, “substantially higher than our objectives”. Against that: no significant environmental incident, clean regulatory inspections, an emissions target on track and a top-5% S&P Global sustainability ranking. Every operation but Timmins sits in a country that has ratified ILO 169, so consultation risk is not unique to Guatemala.

6. Risks

Table 9. Risk register

Source: risk factors in the 2025 Annual Information Form , “Risks Related to Our Business” (p.64–88) — Mexico (p.68–69), Bolivia (p.66, p.71), Argentina (p.68–69, p.72), Peru (p.67, p.72, p.75), Guatemala (p.66), Juanicipio (p.73); the Q1 2026 MD&A (p.17–18) for Escobal and the Skarn. Likelihood and impact scores are the author’s assessment on a 1–5 scale, not disclosed figures.

Figure 5. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 9. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant. Scores are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.

Two risks carry the thesis. The metal price is the obvious one: an unhedged producer with most of its revenue in gold and a silver name on the door moves with both metals, and the valuation’s bear cases in Section 7 price exactly that. The fiscal and regulatory risk is the permanent one: Mexico raised its mining duties for 2025 and restricted concessions and water in 2023; Bolivia’s state holds title at San Vicente; Peru’s government has floated higher mining taxes; Santa Cruz legislated local hiring in late 2025. Escobal and Navidad are the same risk made concrete. The Skarn is the risk management chooses to take; Section 7 values it as an unsanctioned study.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 8 August 2026, in US dollars (Pan American reports in US dollars and the valuation is struck on the NYSE listing, so no FX conversion is needed). Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base gold $4,000/oz — the 3-month trailing average of $4,296/oz (May–July 2026), against a 6-month average of $4,581 and a 12-month average of $4,311, all LBMA monthly averages per the World Bank Pink Sheet to 31 July 2026. The 3-month window is the representative one because the 6- and 12-month windows still carry the January–February peak of $5,020; it sits $46 above the midpoint between two grid prices, inside a window whose monthly prices fell from $4,587 to $4,073, so it takes the lower grid price, $4,000. Every grid price from $3,000 to $5,000/oz is run as a scenario (deep bear $3,000 / bear $3,500 / base $4,000 / bull $4,500 / deep bull $5,000). Silver, 31.9% of enterprise NAV, is decked at $60/oz — its own 3-month average of $67.83 (6-month $73.20, 12-month $64.53, same series), which takes the lower price of the $40–80 silver grid for the same reason (monthly prices fell from $78.0 to $58.8 over the window) — and co-moves step-for-step with gold in every scenario (gold $3,500 pairs with silver $50), because the two are a documented co-moving pair; the ratio is not fixed, and Figure 8 and Table 16 price a move in silver alone. Zinc, lead and copper are by-products — zinc, the largest, is 6.1% of enterprise NAV — held in every column at their 3-month averages taken to their grids: zinc $2,800 / 3,200 / 3,600 / 4,000 / 4,400/t ($3,540 → $3,600), lead $1,600 / 1,800 / 2,000 / 2,200 / 2,400/t ($1,926 → $2,000), copper the fixed $4–8/lb grid ($6.14 → $6.00). The Reuters poll’s 2026 averages of $4,509/oz gold and $72/oz silver are an unweighted cross-check; no spot deck is carried. Discount rate 5% real, after tax — the precious-metals convention, sensitised 4–7%. Share price $51.22 (NYSE close, 7 August 2026); 421.4 m basic and 421.7 m fully diluted shares; balance sheet as of 31 March 2026.

Pan American is valued on the producer (mining) archetype, run as a sum-of-the-parts of eleven producing mines — Juanicipio at its equity-accounted 44% — plus the La Colorada Skarn study, the suspended Escobal reserve and a resource tier. The method is set out in The Commodity Investor, Part 11: How to Value Commodity Stocks ; this section applies it without re-teaching it. The blended fair value is $36.29 per share at the base prices ($4,000 gold, $60 silver), $25.18 at $3,500 and $50, and $47.05 at $4,500 and $70; each co-moved step moves NAV per share by $8.34 — $4.74 of it from $500/oz of gold and $3.60 from $10/oz of silver (Table 16). The producing mines plus the whole equity bridge are worth $21.23 per share, the risked Skarn and Escobal $3.81 and the resource beyond the plans $5.15.

What §7 starts from. The figures below set the mine builds, the study value, the tax bases, the resource tier and the bridge. Everything else §7 takes from a filing or a market series is in the register at §10.1 (Table 27).

Table 10. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on

Notes to Table 10

1. The sum of the filed measured and indicated rows for Jacobina, El Peñon, Shahuindo, Timmins and Minera Florida; every company resource is reported exclusive of reserves.
2. Mexico’s duty is the 8.5% special mining duty on an EBITDA-type base, so the combined rate on margin is 35.95% (8.5% + 30% × 91.5%); Chile’s Specific Mining Tax is taken at 6%, the middle of the 5–7% applied, for 31.38% with the 27% first-category tax. The Peru, Bolivia, Argentina and Ontario rows take the 27% Canadian rate of the company’s own tax reconciliation, because their country rates are not in the source set (Table 24, field 11).

Source: the 2025 production and 2026 guidance release (20 January 2026); the Q1 2026 MD&A and condensed interim consolidated financial statements, 31 March 2026 (5 May 2026); the La Colorada NI 43-101 technical report (effective 24 March 2026); the 2025 MD&A , FY2025 financial statements and 2025 Annual Information Form . Page numbers are those of each filed document as rendered on EDGAR. All figures in US dollars. Reserves and resources are effective 30 June 2025 (Juanicipio 30 June 2024), guidance 20 January 2026 with project capital revised 5 May 2026, and the balance sheet 31 March 2026 — the section’s vintages, each printed with its row. The share price the section is read against ($51.22, 7 August 2026) is in the opening block, not here: it moves the rating, not the valuation. The full register — every figure §7 takes from outside this analysis — is Table 27 in §10.1.

7.1 Method selection

The weights are the producer default — NAV 50% / EV/EBITDA 30% / FCF-yield support 20% — without deviation: the Skarn, Escobal and the resource tier are already inside the NAV, each risked in its own row, and the two cash-flow reads are there because they see only the producing mines. The third slice is FCF-yield support because every line it needs is in the guidance table.

Table 11. Valuation method selection

Source: method-to-archetype mapping and the default weight set per The Commodity Investor, Part 11: How to Value Commodity Stocks , “The archetype is the unit of analysis” and “The valuation toolkit”; the producer default carried without deviation. Archetype per Section 1. Input families: intrinsic 50% (one method); cash-flow 50% (two methods, at the ceiling for two reads of the same cash flow, stated here); asset & capacity and transaction 0%. Target multiples are derived in §7.3 from the archetype anchors, not from a peer set.

7.2 Net asset value

Vehicle map. Nine of the eleven producing mines sit in wholly-owned subsidiaries (Cerro Moro’s with a 5% preferred holder), San Vicente at 95% and Juanicipio in a 44% joint venture that Pan American equity-accounts; nothing inside one line reappears in another. Each encumbrance is charged once, on its filed terms, in the row it burdens.

Table 12. Vehicle map

Source: this analysis; ownership, subsidiaries, streams and royalties per the 2025 Annual Information Form (organisation chart p.16; Cerro Moro p.23; La Colorada p.30; Juanicipio p.36–37; Jacobina p.42; El Peñon p.50) and the Q1 2026 financial statements , Notes 7 and 11.

Tax basis and the pools. Every author-built row takes the statutory rate on cash margin, no depreciation shield: Mexico 35.95%, Chile 31.38%, Jacobina 15.25% under its SUDENE incentive to the end of 2031 and 34% after, and 27% elsewhere (Table 10, note 2). The Skarn carries its study’s own tax schedule. The FY2025 income-tax note shows $1,160 m of unrecognised operating losses, most of them Canadian; the shield is declined, biasing NAV down by at most $1,160 m × 27% ÷ 421.7 m = $0.74 per share. The provision is bridged from the statements at the $590 m carrying value; the rows’ AISC carries only its accretion.

Stage risk is charged once, in the row weights, each read off the de-risking scale by an itemised milestone status (Section 2); the target P/NAV and the rate carry no second charge.

• La Colorada Skarn — 0.30×. A preliminary economic assessment only: no pre-feasibility study and no reserve, with inferred material in the plan. In hand: the 588-level access decline, which needs no further permit, and the board’s $265 m for it (27 April 2026); 2025 permits for the twin declines, ventilation shafts, waste storage, camp and roads. Outstanding: the federal environmental (MIA), land-use (CUS) and water permits for the shafts, the 15,000 t/d plant and the tailings facility; no construction decision, and a partner is under discussion. The scoping band is 0.20–0.40×, taken at its middle; the adjacent pre-feasibility band at 0.45× would add $1.59 per share.
• Escobal — 0.10×. The licence has been suspended since July 2017 by a Constitutional Court order pending the State’s ILO 169 consultation with the Xinka; the Q1 2026 MD&A gives no timeline, the reserve has not been updated since 2019 and restart capital is not disclosed. A reserve no plan schedules would read the resource-conversion band of 0.25–0.50×; here a court order, not geology, binds, so the factor sits below that band — a departure named in Table 24, field 10.
• Resource tier — 0.25×; Navidad 0.00×. Exclusive measured and indicated resource at the operating mines converts at the band floor (below); Navidad’s 632.3 Moz is held at zero because Chubut law bars open-pit mining and cyanide.

Funding. No equity raise is modelled: the Skarn’s $1.9 bn of initial capital is inside its study NPV and is 9.0% of the market capitalisation, under a quarter; next-twelve-month free cash flow after all capital is positive at every grid price (§7.4), and the share count holds at 421.7 m in every scenario.

The per-asset NPV build. Reserves are NI 43-101 / CIM proven and probable (Juanicipio’s a JORC estimate reviewed for Pan American), the basis of every NAV figure in this section. One block per asset at 5% real, end-year, discounted to the 31 March 2026 balance-sheet date so the NAV and the bridge sit on one date. Each mine block starts from its 2026 guidance midpoint and moves the by-product credit from the guidance deck ($70 silver, $4,200 gold) to the base prices; life is reserves ÷ the guided rate, less the 0.75 years mined since the reserve date (Juanicipio 1.75). The Skarn is carried at its own after-tax NPV, interpolated on the study’s printed silver × zinc sensitivity.

Table 13. Per-asset NPV build — base case ($4,000/oz gold, $60/oz silver, 5% real)

Notes to Table 13

1. The study prints NPV5% at silver prices of $30, $45, $60 and $75/oz and zinc prices of $2,200–3,400/t (lead $2,000/t); other grid prices interpolate linearly between the printed columns, $80/oz and $3,600/t extend the nearest printed slope.
2. The study’s cash-flow schedule starts in 2026; its $2,554 m NPV reproduces within 0.9% ($2,530.5 m) on mid-year discounting from 1 January 2026, the 2058–70 tail spread evenly. The roll carries it to the balance-sheet date, and the $8 m spent in Q1 2026 is added back at face.
3. Milestone status and the band position are argued in the stage-risk list above; the weight moves 0.20× / 0.25× / 0.30× / 0.35× / 0.40× across the scenario columns.
4. Restart capital, timing and costs are not disclosed; the in-plan value of the four silver-primary mines is the unit value, a floor on a 333 g/t reserve. The factor moves 0.06× / 0.08× / 0.10× / 0.12× / 0.14× across the scenarios. Care and maintenance runs over the same horizon as the capitalised corporate cost.
5. Gold M&I is 109% of the same mines’ filed reserves and silver M&I 31% of the silver-segment reserves, both above the one-quarter trigger. Both sit at the band floor because 2025 replaced about 500 koz of gold and 10.3 Moz of silver against 742.2 koz and 22.8 Moz produced; the factor rises to 0.30× and 0.35× in the two bull columns.
6. The company-reported exclusive M&I at La Colorada (14.8 Moz), Huaron (16.2), San Vicente (6.0) and Cerro Moro (8.3) — each the sum of its filed measured and indicated rows — plus Juanicipio’s 18.4 Moz: its inclusive 76.7 Moz less its 58.3 Moz reserve, both derived from the AIF’s tonnes and grade. The Skarn’s 308.7 Moz is in block 13; Escobal’s 110.2 Moz of M&I is carried at zero behind its reserve.
7. Chubut law bars open-pit mining and cyanide, which the AIF says would likely make development uneconomic or not possible; the $191 m carrying value is not used.

Source: this analysis, from the 2025 production and 2026 guidance release (p.4, p.6); the Q1 2026 MD&A (p.3, p.25); the La Colorada technical report , Tables 24-18 and 24-19 (p.165–166), and the revised Skarn PEA release (24 March 2026); the Timmins Camp Project release (1 June 2026), whose $146 m first phase is carried as the 2026 project capital plus a $104.5 m balance, an estimate; reserves and resources per the 2025 MD&A (p.54–55) and the 2025 AIF (p.39, p.59). Inferred resources are carried at 0.0 and priced as optionality in §7.5. Rows are numbered in the first column and the count restarts in every block, so a Derived cell’s row 4 × row 5 points inside its own block; the accent band names the block. Values computed on unrounded inputs.

Table 14. Per-asset model — base case ($4,000/oz gold, $60/oz silver, 5% real)

Source: this analysis, from the filings cited under Table 13. Every NPV in the last column reproduces from its block in Table 13; this table adds the stage, profile, cost, capital, tax and discounting inputs behind them. Guided AISC is by-product and per ounce sold, royalties included, at the company’s $70/oz silver and $4,200/oz gold; the Mexican 1.0% extraordinary duty and the La Colorada net-profit share are taken to sit in its royalty line, which the guidance does not itemise.

Table 15. NAV build-up and equity bridge (base case — $4,000/oz gold, $60/oz silver, 5% real)

Source: this analysis; rows are numbered in the first column and run straight down the bridge — the memo lines beneath the result carry no number because nothing steps through them — and every balance-sheet line per the condensed interim consolidated financial statements, 31 March 2026 (p.2, p.5; Notes 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11), severance and the stream balances per the FY2025 financial statements (Note 19, p.40), corporate costs per the 2026 guidance. No financing, acquisition or disposal after 31 March 2026 is in the source set to bridge. The tiers are printed to three decimals so they sum to the published NAV per share: 21.232 + 3.815 + 5.147 = 30.194 → $30.19 — and the producing tier alone sits 59% below the $51.22 price, so the market pays for the operating mines, all of the risked Skarn, Escobal and resource value, and about $21.03 a share on top. Values computed on unrounded inputs.

Figure 6. NAV build-up and equity bridge

Figure data: Table 15. Equity NAV of $12,732.6 m equates to $30.19 per fully diluted share; the producing tier alone is $21.23. “Mines & by-products” groups blocks 1–12; “Net cash & hedge” rows 7–8; “WC & minority” rows 10 and 14; convertibles are $0.0 m and the stream balance is excluded.

Figure 7. NAV/share sensitivity — gold price (silver co-moved) × discount rate

		Gold price ($/oz), silver co-moved
		3,000Ag 40	3,500Ag 50	Base4,000 · Ag 60	4,500Ag 70	5,000Ag 80
Discount rate	4%	$14.80	$23.54	$32.25	$41.10	$49.95
	5% (base)	$13.73	$21.97	$30.19	$38.53	$46.87
	7%	$11.96	$19.35	$26.74	$34.20	$41.66

Notes to Figure 7

1. Checksum — the $3,500 · Ag 50 column at 5%: mines $7,093.1 m (Jacobina $2,818.3 m, El Peñon $777.7 m, Shahuindo $839.7 m, Timmins $277.2 m, Minera Florida $110.8 m, Dolores $3.5 m, La Colorada $589.2 m, Juanicipio $1,098.5 m, Cerro Moro $97.5 m, Huaron $431.9 m, San Vicente $48.9 m) + by-products $237.5 m + Skarn $1,169.9 m + Escobal $132.1 m + resource $1,613.5 m = $10,246.1 m; bridge −$982.7 m → $9,263.4 m ÷ 421.688 m = $21.97.
2. Rate rows — the author-built rows, the by-product row, Escobal’s holding cost, the resource rows and the capitalised corporate cost re-discount directly; the Skarn is re-struck on its own printed schedule (×1.2246 at 4%, ×0.6622 at 7%; ×0.4279 at 9% in the deep-bear scenario) and rolled at the row’s rate. Risk weights are held; they move only in the scenarios (§7.6).
3. Cost — each mine’s gross cost before precious by-product credits +10% at the base prices takes NAV per share to $27.53 (−8.8%); both prices +10% ($4,400 and $66) with costs following at half the rate (+5%) give $34.81 (+15.3%), against $36.14 (+19.7%) on price alone.
4. FX — n/a for the valuation currency: Pan American reports in US dollars and the section is struck on the NYSE listing. The operating exposure is peso, sol, real, Chilean-peso and Canadian-dollar costs; the FY2025 financial-risk note prints a 10% move as about $65 m of pre-tax income on non-US-dollar net monetary liabilities, and the only hedges are CAD and BRL forwards to December 2026.
5. Stage risk — n/a: no risked tranche reaches a quarter of enterprise NAV (Skarn 9.8%, Escobal 2.0%).
6. Schedule slip — n/a: the Skarn, the one development asset, is 9.8% of enterprise NAV, under a tenth. For reference, first production and its capital one year later give $30.04 (−$0.15); the milestone that would do it is the federal MIA, CUS and water permits for the plant and tailings.
7. Second deck — silver co-moves step-for-step on its own grid, so the columns carry $40 / 50 / 60 / 70 / 80 silver beside $3,000–5,000 gold. Silver one step down alone ($50, gold held at $4,000, 5%) gives $26.70 (−$3.49, −11.6%) — the down-step; Table 16 prints the +$3.60 up-step, the two differing because the Skarn’s value is piecewise-linear in silver (below). No part of the silver exposure is carried at cost or at a mark: Juanicipio is its block, not its $2,009 m carrying value, and only Navidad, at 0.00×, does not move with the price. Zinc, lead and copper are held at their bases in every column.

Figure data: this analysis’ model (Tables 13–15), every cell recomputed at that column’s prices and that row’s rate, never scaled. Price columns are the fixed gold grid, grid version 2026-09 ($3,000–5,000/oz), with silver co-moved on its own 2026-09 grid ($40–80/oz); base case $4,000 and $60 at 5% real. A one-step co-moved move shifts NAV per share by about ±$8.34, or ±28%; the deck sensitivity is tabulated in Table 16.

Figure 8. NAV/share — gold price × silver price, 5% real

		Gold price ($/oz)
		3,000	3,500	Base4,000	4,500	5,000
Silver price ($/oz)	40	$13.73	$18.46	$23.19	$27.93	$32.67
	50	$17.23	$21.97	$26.70	$31.44	$36.18
	60 (base)	$20.72	$25.46	$30.19	$34.93	$39.67
	70	$24.32	$29.06	$33.80	$38.53	$43.27
	80	$27.92	$32.66	$37.40	$42.14	$46.87

Notes to Figure 8

1. Checksum — $3,500 gold and $60 silver at 5% gives $25.46; the cell one silver step below it ($3,500 and $50) is $21.97, the Figure 7 bear cell, so the two grids agree on the diagonal.

Figure data: this analysis’ model, every cell recomputed at that column’s gold price and that row’s silver price, 5% real, never scaled. Columns are the fixed gold grid and rows the fixed silver grid, both grid version 2026-09; base case $4,000 and $60. The scenario columns of Table 23 run down this grid’s diagonal ($3,000 · $40 → $5,000 · $80); a reader who holds gold at $4,500 and silver at $50 reads $31.44 straight off the grid.

Deck sensitivity. The slope between grid prices, to move the valuation to any gold and silver view; the Linear over column gives where each per-step figure adds up to the cent, the source line the kink and the down-steps.

Table 16. Deck sensitivity — value per step of the gold and silver grids ($/share unless stated; base rate, risk weights and target multiples held)

Source: this analysis, Tables 13–15 and 23. % of base is each line’s one-step move divided by its own base-price value — a leverage read. The FCF-per-share line crosses zero near $2,505/oz gold with silver co-moved, below the grid. The scenario blend steps unevenly because the discount rate and the risk weights move with each column. Gold-only rows and the two cash-flow reads are exactly linear; every NAV row that moves silver, and the blend through it, kinks at $60, because the Skarn study prints its NPV only at $30, $45, $60 and $75 silver and its value is piecewise-linear between them ($168.7 m risked for the $10 below $60, $216.0 m above); a smaller kink sits at $40 silver and $3,000 gold, where San Vicente and Dolores are floored at zero. Every step is the difference between two recomputed grid prices of Figures 7 and 8. How to use it: start from the base-price values (NAV per share $30.19, blended fair value $36.29) and add or subtract the per-step figure for every step away from $4,000 and $60 — gold alone at $4,500 with silver at $60 gives NAV per share of about $34.93; for silver alone add $0.36 per $1/oz above $60. Below the base, use the down-steps: $8.23 of NAV per share and $9.68 of blend per co-moved step to $3,500 · $50 ($8.24 and $9.68 for the next), and $3.49 of NAV per share for silver alone to $50 — or read the cell straight off Figures 7 and 8; for a reading that also moves the rate and the risk weights, use the scenario columns of Table 23.

P/NAV price map (unweighted). Figure 7’s 5% row at the producer’s five fixed P/NAV levels — the share price each implies at every grid price; no weight, no current-price column (the market-implied deck in §7.5 places $51.22).

Table 17. P/NAV price map — share price implied by each P/NAV level at each grid price ($/share)

Source: this analysis; each cell is the Figure 7 base-rate NAV per share at that column’s prices (13.73 / 21.97 / 30.19 / 38.53 / 46.87) × the row’s P/NAV, risk weights held. The levels are the fixed producer set, so two producers read column-for-column. Pan American’s 0.94× target, derived in §7.3, reads $28.38 at the base prices, between the 0.75× and 1.00× levels. Parity at the base prices is $30.19; $51.22 sits above both the 1.50× level at the base prices ($45.29) and parity at $5,000 · $80 ($46.87).

7.3 Relative valuation

At $51.22 and 421.4 m basic shares, the market capitalisation is $21,585.3 m and enterprise value $20,906.3 m (the company’s $679 m net cash, leases included). Each target is the producer anchor moved by the Section 9 scorecard; no peer multiples enter. Forward means the next twelve months from 8 August: 2027 is not guided, so the 2026 guidance midpoints stand for the window. The $4,000 base sits 54% above gold’s five-year average of $2,601/oz and $60 silver 79% above its $33.46 (August 2021–July 2026, World Bank Pink Sheet), so the targets are held at mid-cycle in every scenario and only the decks move.

Table 18. Target-multiple driver line (one line, applied to every multiple)

Source: this analysis; each term is tied to one scored dimension, capped at ±10%, and no fact is charged under two labels, per the valuation guide linked in §7, “The valuation toolkit”. Dimensions 4, 6, 7 and 9 carry no term: growth is priced project by project in the NAV, and capital allocation, management and ESG score at the norm. Jurisdiction is charged here, once, and not in the 5% rate. The line is printed once and reused for every multiple:

Target P/NAV = 1.00× anchor × (1 − 0.06) = 0.940× → 0.94× · Target EV/EBITDA = 7.0× anchor × 0.94 = 6.58× → 6.6× · Target FCF yield = 7.0% anchor ÷ 0.94 = 7.45% → 7.4% (a discount to value is a higher yield demanded). The rounded figures are the ones used in every table below.

Table 19. Forward EBITDA build — the next twelve months at the base prices

Source: this analysis; guidance per the 2025 production and 2026 guidance release (p.4, p.6), reaffirmed in the Q1 2026 MD&A (p.3). Rows are numbered in the first column and run straight down the build. Volume ties to guidance with nothing added. Revenue is built metal by metal at the base prices, the two streams at their filed terms; base metals are contained, not payable (payable terms not disclosed). Cost basis: cash costs before by-product credits are the guided AISC × volume, plus the credits the guidance counts at its own deck, less sustaining capital — the same cost the NAV blocks carry, before sustaining capital; accretion is left inside. Juanicipio is at 44%, and its cash reaches Pan American only as dividends. For scale, Q1 2026 attributable revenue was $1,332 m at a realised $89.43/oz silver and $4,859/oz gold.

Table 20. Relative valuation — implied value per share (base case)

Source: this analysis; anchors per the valuation guide linked in §7, “The valuation toolkit” (producer: P/NAV 1.00×, EV/EBITDA 7.0×). The implied EV crosses every bridge line the NAV charges except corporate G&A, which EBITDA already carries, and deducts the $129 m of leases, whose payments sit in the sustaining capital EBITDA excludes. Values computed on unrounded inputs (28.383 → $28.38; 37.959 → $37.96).

The two reads sit $9.58 apart, with the multiple above the NAV: a 6.6× multiple capitalises 2026 cash flow as if it lasted, while the NAV runs each mine only to the end of its reserve — 1.1 years at Cerro Moro, 3.2 at Minera Florida and 5.1 at El Peñon.

7.4 FCF-yield support

The third weighted read capitalises next-twelve-month free cash flow before growth capital at the producer yield anchor moved by the same driver line.

Table 21. FCF-yield support build — the next twelve months at the base prices

Source: this analysis; guidance per the 2025 production and 2026 guidance release (p.6) and the Q1 2026 MD&A (p.3); rows run straight down the build, the memo rows continuing the count. Cash tax is the statutory basis on EBITDA less sustaining capital and the guided 2026 D&A, the guidance year every line sits on; guided cash tax payments of $500–550 m are struck at a higher deck ($70 silver, $4,200 gold) and are not a basis. Brownfield exploration ($55 m) sits inside sustaining capital and project exploration ($55 m) inside project capital, so capitalised exploration is inside free cash flow after all capital. Growth capital is excluded from the valued figure by construction — the Skarn’s value is what the NAV leg carries.

The read lands at $53.58, $17.28 above the blend and 89% above the NAV leg — the widest of the three, because a yield capitalises one year’s cash flow in perpetuity on a producing reserve base that runs about eight years outside Escobal.

7.5 Cross-checks

Table 22. Cross-checks — reported, reconciled, never weighted

Notes to Table 22

1. EV = year-end US close × year-end shares + debt and lease obligations − cash; EBITDA = earnings (loss) from operations + depreciation and amortization, both as filed. By year: 2021 $24.97 × 210.458 m + $45.9 m − $283.6 m = $5,017.4 m ÷ $623.9 m; 2022 $16.34 × 210.681 m + $226.8 m − $107.0 m = $3,562.4 m ÷ $53.8 m; 2023 $16.33 × 364.660 m + $801.6 m − $399.6 m = $6,356.9 m ÷ $522.3 m; 2024 $20.22 × 363.041 m + $803.3 m − $862.8 m = $7,281.2 m ÷ $1,102.4 m; 2025 $51.81 × 421.847 m + $852.0 m − $1,215.0 m = $21,492.9 m ÷ $1,730.0 m. The 2021 and 2022 figures are from the FY2022 statements, which carry 2021 as comparatives; every input is in Table 27.
2. Gold: 6,477.2 koz = 6,338.7 koz company total (30 June 2025, which excludes Juanicipio) − 278.0 koz Escobal + 416.5 koz Juanicipio at 44% (8.2 Mt at 1.58 g/t), less 547.5 koz mined to 31 March 2026 = 5,929.7 koz. Silver: 246.1 Moz = 452.3 − 264.5 Escobal + 58.3 Juanicipio, less 25.45 Moz mined = 220.65 Moz × 15 koz per Moz (the $60 : $4,000 base ratio) = 3,309.8 koz. Total 9,239.5 koz, both metals depleted at the guided rates exactly as the Table 13 lives are.

Source: this analysis; the implied deck solved on the Tables 13–21 model; metal monthly averages, their five-year highs and lows included, per the World Bank Pink Sheet (4 August 2026) and its historical monthly data ; EV/EBITDA history from the FY2022–FY2025 consolidated statements of financial position, earnings and changes in equity and the year-end closes per Yahoo Finance (Nasdaq to April 2023, NYSE after); reserves and replacement per the 2025 MD&A and AIF; deals per the Gold Fields , Coeur , Regis and Equinox–Orla releases, EV computed from the offer terms and the targets’ last balance sheets; poll deck per Reuters via Kitco , 28 July 2026.

7.6 Scenarios & fair value

Every weighted method is re-run in every column, silver moving one step of its own grid with each step of gold. The rate steps out to 7% and 9% on the downside and holds at 5% on the upside; the Skarn, Escobal and resource weights move inside their bands; the targets are held in every column. The memo row also holds the rate and the weights, so it is the linear version of Table 16. The downside columns are the Section 6 metal-price risk: gold toward $3,000 and silver toward $40, where San Vicente and Dolores stop paying their way.

Table 23. Scenarios & fair value — inputs, value per method and the blend by grid price ($/share)

Source: this analysis; weights per §7.1 (the producer default); scenario names by distance from the base price. Base blend on a calculator: 0.50 × 28.383 + 0.30 × 37.959 + 0.20 × 53.577 = 14.191 + 11.388 + 10.715 = 36.294 → $36.29. Inputs behind the rows, by column: hedge mark $3.0 m in every column (CAD and BRL forwards; the metal book is empty); Skarn weight 0.20× / 0.25× / 0.30× / 0.35× / 0.40×; Escobal 0.06× / 0.08× / 0.10× / 0.12× / 0.14×; resource factor 0.25× / 0.25× / 0.25× / 0.30× / 0.35×; capitalised corporate cost $826.8 m / $940.0 m / $1,078.8 m / $1,078.8 m / $1,078.8 m; the targets 0.94× · 6.6× · 7.4% in every column; forward EBITDA $1,190.7 m / $1,810.7 m / $2,430.7 m / $3,050.6 m / $3,670.6 m; FCF before growth $766.7 m / $1,219.3 m / $1,671.9 m / $2,124.4 m / $2,577.0 m. The FCF-per-share row re-runs Table 21’s bridge at each column’s prices, cash tax recomputed and the $247.5 m of growth capital held. Adding the 1.41% dividend yield, the implied total return at the base is about −27.7% — reported, not rated. Illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.

Figure 9. Value per share by method and scenario

		Scenario (gold deck, silver co-moved)
		Deep Bear$3,000 · Ag 40	Bear$3,500 · Ag 50	Base$4,000 · Ag 60	Bull$4,500 · Ag 70	Deep Bull$5,000 · Ag 80
Method	SOTP NAV × 0.94 (50%)	$9.48(−67%)	$17.77(−37%)	$28.38(base)	$38.28(+35%)	$48.96(+72%)
	EV/EBITDA 6.6× (30%)	$18.57(−51%)	$28.26(−26%)	$37.96(base)	$47.66(+26%)	$57.35(+51%)
	FCF-yield 7.4% (20%)	$24.57(−54%)	$39.07(−27%)	$53.58(base)	$68.08(+27%)	$82.58(+54%)
	Blended fair value	$15.23(−58%)	$25.18(−31%)	$36.29(base)	$47.05(+30%)	$58.20(+60%)

Source: this analysis; each cell recomputed at its column’s decks, rate and risk weights (Table 23); shading ranked 0–9 across the whole grid. Current share price $51.22 (7 Aug 2026); market-implied deck ~$4,767/oz gold with silver at ~$75.3. The bracketed figure under each value is its change against the same row’s base-case value.

Conclusion. The blended base-case fair value is $36.29, inside a $15.23 (Deep Bear, $3,000 · $40) – $58.20 (Deep Bull, $5,000 · $80) range, against a $51.22 price — an implied −29.1%, Modestly overvalued (wide band), the qualifier earned because the Deep Bear blend sits 70% below the price. Free cash flow after all capital for the next twelve months is $1,424.4 m, a 6.6% yield on the $21,585.3 m market capitalisation (7.7% before growth capital). Rating-flip prices: down into Overvalued below ~$3,977/oz gold with silver at $59.5 (−0.6% from the base price), up into Fairly valued above **$4,504/oz** with silver at ~$70.1 (+12.6%). The assumption that drives the downside is the silver-and-gold deck itself: the read sits 0.6% of the gold price above the line where it turns Overvalued, and a return toward $3,000 gold and $40 silver takes the blend to $15.23. The market-implied deck of ~$4,767/oz gold with ~$75.3 silver says the price discounts both metals about one step above the base, and the $21.23 producing tier says the market pays $29.99 a share above it — $8.96 of risked Skarn, Escobal and resource value and $21.03 more than the NAV counts.

Table 24. Assumptions box

Source: this analysis. Values per share to two decimals and multiples to two significant figures, computed on unrounded inputs and rounded half-up.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 25. Near-term catalysts

Source: 2025 production and 2026 guidance release (p.4); returns release , 5 May 2026; Q1 2026 MD&A (p.3, p.17) for Jacobina and the Skarn; 2025 MD&A , “Metal Price Assumptions” (p.57), for the reserve price deck; Timmins Camp Project release , 1 June 2026. Timing is company guidance, not a guarantee.

Every catalyst here is already funded or scheduled; none needs a government to act. Juanicipio’s full year and the return framework carry 2026. The reserve statement is the quiet one: 2025’s reserves were struck at $22/oz silver at La Colorada and Huaron and $1,900/oz gold at Jacobina, far below the Section 7 base deck, so a re-pricing is more likely to add ounces than remove them. Escobal and Navidad are left out: neither has a date.

9. Rating & verdict

Pan American is scored on the nine dimensions every Metal Pilot analysis uses, against the Section 2.13 peer set, with the producer weighting — 15% each for asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation, 6.25% for the other four. None is not-applicable.

Table 26. Scorecard rationale

Source: each row cites its evidence in this analysis; peer figures are those of Table 4, from each company’s own 2025 filings.

Weighted average: (0.15 × 4) + (0.15 × 2) + (0.15 × 3) + (0.15 × 4) + (0.15 × 3) + (0.0625 × 4) + (0.0625 × 3) + (0.0625 × 2) + (0.0625 × 3) = 0.60 + 0.30 + 0.45 + 0.60 + 0.45 + 0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.125 + 0.1875 = 3.15/5 → ★★★, Average.

The two-axis verdict. Quality ★★★ (Average, 3.2/5); value read Modestly overvalued (wide band) as of 8 August 2026, implied −29.1% from $51.22 to a $36.29 blended fair value; verdict: Full — the market already sees it. The shares price about $4,767/oz gold with silver at ~$75.3 against this analysis’s $4,000 and $60 base deck, so the price already pays for roughly one step up in both metals. The target multiples sit 6% below their archetype anchors — P/NAV 0.94×, EV/EBITDA 6.6×, an FCF yield of 7.4% — because the cost position (Dim 2) and jurisdiction (Dim 8) outweigh the asset spread (Dim 1) and the balance sheet (Dim 5), with a small charge for reserve replacement (Dim 3).

The bull case is breadth and cash: a producer this diversified, with net cash and $1 bn of 2025 free cash flow, needs no single asset to go right. The bear case is what the breadth hides: thin margins at several gold mines, short producing reserves, and a price that already assumes more than trailing-average metal prices. What tips it is the metal price — the read turns Overvalued below about $3,977/oz gold and Fairly valued above about $4,504/oz, each with silver moving in step — and, over three years, whether the Skarn is sanctioned and funded without another share issue.

To rank Pan American against every listed silver producer on the same nine dimensions — reserves, AISC, reserve life and P/NAV — screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Sources — company filings: the FY2025 Annual Information Form , MD&A and audited financial statements (18 February 2026); the Q1 2026 interim statements , MD&A and results (5 May 2026); the 2025 production and 2026 guidance release , FY2025 results release , returns release and NCIB release ; the 2026 information circular and voting results ; the 2025 Sustainability Report release and Timmins Camp Project release ; for 2021–2024, the FY2024, FY2023 and FY2022 financial statements and MD&As and the 2023 Annual Information Form .

Sources — technical reports: the NI 43-101 technical report for La Colorada (effective 24 March 2026) with the revised Skarn assessment and its release ; every other mine’s reserves and resources as summarised in the 2025 AIF and MD&A.

Sources — market data and peers: share price per stockanalysis.com (NYSE close, 7 August 2026); monthly metal prices per the World Bank Pink Sheet to July 2026; USD/CAD per the Bank of Canada ; each peer’s own 2025 filings, linked under Table 4 — the same five names are compared on one construction in Silver Mining Stocks Compared .

Methodology. Data as of 8 August 2026, refreshed on each annual report and on material events: market data at the 7 August close; balance sheet at 31 March 2026; financials for FY2025 and Q1 2026; reserves effective 30 June 2025 (Juanicipio 30 June 2024). No filing released after 8 August is used — the Q2 2026 results and the 30 June 2026 reserve statement are for the next run. IFRS, US dollars; resources exclusive of reserves; AISC by segment. The valuation’s base deck is $4,000/oz gold and $60/oz silver at a 5% real after-tax rate, every grid price run as a scenario; scorecard weights follow the producer reference case. Where filings disagreed, the audited statements won (FY2023 diluted EPS: $(0.32), not the 2025 MD&A’s $(0.25)).

Figures not drawn. The asset map is skipped because the blog’s figure library has no map component (Table 2 carries the footprint), and the financial-summary chart because one series would only repeat Table 5.

Data gaps — documents to request. Income-tax rates for Peru, Bolivia, Argentina and Ontario (27% used; +5 points costs about $0.55 a share) — a rate reconciliation by jurisdiction; Escobal restart capital and timing — a restart study; concentrate payable terms; the Timmins phase-1 schedule beyond 2026; and the 2025 Sustainability Report itself for emissions, water, tailings and TRIFR.

Re-run log. 30 September – 1 October 2026: re-aligned to the current template; valuation rebuilt on a new model — price re-read at the 7 August close ($51.22, was $48.05 at 6 August), trailing-average decks on fixed grids replacing the spot-anchored deck, reserve lives depleted to 31 March 2026, every figure re-sourced to the filings. Composite 3.3 → 3.2 (Solid → Average), chiefly on cost position against the declared peers; value read Fairly valued → Modestly overvalued (wide band), implied −29.1%.

Provenance: Pan American Silver Corp. — Annual Information Form — 2025.

The full input register. Every figure Section 7 takes from a filing, a study or a market series, once, by document, with the table that uses it and its address — the long form of Table 10. The arithmetic and judgements are in Tables 13–15 and 19–21, marked Derived, Input or Estimate.

Table 27. Full source register — every figure §7 takes from a filing or a market series

Notes to Table 27

1. The deck the company’s 2026 AISC guidance is struck on; §7 moves every by-product credit from it to the base prices.
2. The study prints NPV5% at silver prices of $30, $45, $60 and $75/oz and zinc prices of $2,200–3,400/t; §7 interpolates between them and extends the nearest slope to $3,600/t zinc and $80/oz silver, an author step marked as one in Table 13.
3. The schedule’s $2,554 m reproduces within 0.9% on mid-year discounting from 1 January 2026; it is the profile the rate rows re-strike the study on.
4. The release places the phase’s initial spending inside the 2026 Timmins guidance and gives no later schedule; the $104.5 m balance is §7’s estimate.
5. Per-mine totals are the sums of the filed proven and probable (or measured and indicated) rows; the MD&A prints the segment totals only.
6. The AIF prints Juanicipio’s tonnes and grade on a 44% basis; the contained ounces are derived from them.

Source: the 2025 production and 2026 guidance release ; the Q1 2026 MD&A and interim financial statements, 31 March 2026 ; the La Colorada technical report ; the Timmins Camp Project release ; the FY2025 financial statements , 2025 MD&A and 2025 Annual Information Form ; the year-end lines of the 2022 , 2023 and 2024 financial statements ; metal prices per the World Bank Pink Sheet ; exchange rate per the Bank of Canada ; the forecast deck per Reuters via Kitco ; year-end closes per Yahoo Finance . Page numbers are those of each filed document as rendered on EDGAR; every filed figure was read back from the copy in the verification folder.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 8 August 2026: the share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value, multiples and valuation read all move, and precious-metals equities are volatile. Reserve, resource, study and guidance figures are estimates on the codes and bases stated beside each table; the Skarn study and any Escobal restart are not achieved results. The Quality × Value verdict is an analytical read, never an instruction to the reader. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from primary filings and reviewed, but readers should verify every number against the original documents before acting on it. The author holds no position in Pan American Silver Corp. or in any company named here. Please do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser.