Suncor Energy (SU) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time Suncor Energy stock analysis, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Suncor Energy’s 2025 Annual Information Form (reserves effective 31 December 2025), its audited 2025 financial statements and MD&A, the 2026 guidance release (11 December 2025) and the Q2 2026 interim statements, MD&A and results release (4–5 August 2026). Market data: TSX close on 10 August 2026, C$87.48; FX C$1.3942 per $1 (Bank of Canada, same day). Price deck: base WTI $70/bbl — the 12-month trailing average ($74.28 to July 2026) on the fixed $60–100 grid, the 3- and 6-month averages ($89.13 and $87.27) carrying the spring 2026 Middle East spike — with every grid price run as a scenario (bear $60 / base $70 / bull $80 / deep bull $90 / extreme bull $100) and the reserve evaluators’ average forecast ($65.10 for 2027) as a 0%-weight cross-check; no spot price, so the valuation does not age with the daily quote. Rating: ★★★★ Solid (3.9/5) — Modestly overvalued (wide band), implied −22.6% → full: the share price already embeds a flat oil deck of about $79. All figures are Canadian dollars unless marked; $ denotes US dollars. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Suncor Energy is Canada’s original oil-sands company and its most integrated one: it mines and upgrades bitumen, pumps offshore crude off Newfoundland, runs five refineries and sells the fuel through 1,732 Petro-Canada stations. The thesis in one line: a turnaround that cut net debt from C$13.3 billion in 2021 to C$4.5 billion has turned Suncor into a cash-return machine, but at C$87.48 the shares already price oil near $79 a barrel, above the $70 deck this analysis runs on. Why now: Q2 2026 adjusted funds from operations of C$5.33 billion, double a year earlier, and a buyback stepped up to C$500 million a month arrive after the shares rose about 64% in a year. To screen Suncor against every North American upstream and integrated peer on the same fields, go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX: SU; NYSE: SU) is a senior integrated oil company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, with 15,424 employees at the end of 2025. It spans the oil value chain: oil-sands mining and upgrading (the Base Plant mines and upgraders, the 58.74%-owned and operated Syncrude joint operation and the 100%-owned Fort Hills mine), in-situ oil sands (Firebag and MacKay River), offshore production off Canada’s East Coast (Terra Nova, Hibernia, White Rose, Hebron), refining at Edmonton, Montreal, Sarnia and two small refineries at Commerce City, Colorado (511,000 bbl/d of nameplate capacity from January 2026), and Petro-Canada retail and wholesale. By archetype it is an integrated major, so it is scored at the group level and valued sum-of-the-parts — the three upstream businesses on their reserve report, the downstream on a mid-cycle cash-flow model (Section 7). Suncor produces crude only, so every volume below is barrels of oil (SCO = synthetic crude oil; bbl/d = barrels per day; mmbbl = million barrels; 1P = proved reserves; 2P = proved plus probable; AFFO = adjusted funds from operations).

Figure 1. Suncor Energy in numbers

Figure data: Suncor Energy 2025 Annual Information Form (reserves, assets), the audited 2025 financial statements and 2025 MD&A (revenue, EBITDA, production), the Q2 2026 interim statements (net debt, share count); price per stockanalysis.com price history , 10 Aug 2026. EBITDA = earnings before tax + DD&A + financing expenses; trailing EBITDA is the twelve months to 30 June 2026. Complexes: Base Plant mines, Syncrude, Fort Hills, Firebag, MacKay River. Rating per Section 9, valuation read per Section 7.

Table 1. Suncor Energy in numbers

Source: Suncor Energy 2025 Annual Information Form for reserves (NI 51-101, forecast prices, gross before royalties) and capacity; the 2025 MD&A and audited 2025 statements for production, throughput and revenue; the Q2 2026 interim statements and Q2 2026 MD&A for net debt, shares, capacity and the buyback; price per stockanalysis.com . Reserve lives are gross reserves over 2025 gross production (314 mmbbl). Net debt is Suncor’s own definition, which excludes C$4.8 bn of lease liabilities. NAV and read per Section 7. Listed: Public (TSX: SU / NYSE: SU).

Thesis in brief. Bull: a long-life, low-decline oil-sands base (7.44 billion barrels of 2P reserves) fed into its own upgraders and refineries, so Suncor keeps part of the heavy-oil discount a pure producer pays away; a balance sheet with net debt at 0.2× EBITDA; and a buyback that now retires about 6% of the shares a year. Bear: at C$87.48 the stock sits 41% above a 2P sum-of-the-parts NAV of C$62.22 and prices a flat oil deck near $79; the proved reserve life, 15 years, is shorter than the “decades” label suggests; and every barrel carries oil-sands emissions and reclamation costs that policy can raise. What tips it is the oil price the market is willing to capitalise, not the operations. The full rating is in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

Suncor’s cash flow sits in the oil cycle covered in the Oil — A Complete Market Guide : WTI averaged $64.75 in 2025, then spiked above $100 in April–May 2026 on the Middle East risk premium before easing to $80.46 in July. What distinguishes Suncor from a pure producer is that a large slice of its earnings comes from refining and retail, which do not move one-for-one with crude.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Three upstream businesses and one downstream business, all anchored in Canada.

Table 2. Portfolio at a glance

Source: Suncor Energy 2025 Annual Information Form , reserves effective 31 December 2025 under NI 51-101 (forecast prices, gross before royalties) and the 2025 production in its reserves reconciliation; unit costs per the 2025 MD&A (non-GAAP cash operating costs); working interests per note 28 of the audited statements . The in-situ SCO is upgraded at Base Plant, so its cash cost is reported inside Oil Sands operations. Reserves are estimates, not certainties.

Suncor is overwhelmingly an oil-sands company: mining and in situ hold 97% of 2P reserves and 93% of production, and the E&P leg is a small light-oil sleeve. It is also genuinely integrated — roughly 480,000 bbl/d of refinery runs against 860,000 bbl/d of upstream output — which is why its earnings swing less than a pure heavy-oil producer’s. A proportional-symbol asset map is not drawn (see Section 10.1); Table 2 carries the footprint.

2.2 Where the revenue and the value sit

Suncor sells one commodity — oil, as bitumen, synthetic crude, offshore light crude and refined products — so a by-commodity split would be a single bar at 100% and is stated here in prose. The useful splits are by business: the revenue each books and the value each holds.

Figure 2. Revenue by segment, FY2025

Figure data: note 6 (segmented information) of Suncor’s audited 2025 financial statements . Refining & Marketing revenue includes the value of the crude it buys and resells as product, so it overstates that segment’s share of value — Figure 3 shows the value split.

Figure 3. Enterprise value by business, base case

Figure data: this analysis’ sum-of-the-parts model (Table 11) — In Situ C$30.5 bn, Mining C$28.7 bn, Refining & Marketing C$23.8 bn, E&P Canada C$6.5 bn, before the equity bridge.

On revenue the downstream looks biggest; on value the oil sands hold two-thirds of the company, with the downstream a large and steadier quarter and the offshore leg 7%. Suncor is an oil-sands value story with a refining cushion, not the other way round.

2.3 Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading

The mining business is the Base Plant (Millennium and North Steepbank mines with two upgraders), the 100%-owned Fort Hills mine and the 58.74% operated interest in Syncrude (Mildred Lake and Aurora North mines and their upgrader). It produced 201 mmbbl of gross reserves in 2025, most of it upgraded into sweet SCO that sold at C$87.79/bbl net of transport, against C$62.02 for non-upgraded bitumen — upgrading is how Suncor keeps the heavy-oil discount. Fort Hills became 100% owned in 2023 through two purchases from Teck Resources and TotalEnergies that took the stake from 54.11%, and reached 90% of nameplate in 2025. The 3,457 mmbbl of gross 2P reserves are carried by the evaluator net of C$64.1 billion of inflated, undiscounted abandonment and reclamation spending across the upstream, which is why the segment’s after-tax value at 5% (C$28.71 billion) exceeds its undiscounted value (C$23.92 billion): the reclamation bill arrives last. Mine-life extensions — Mildred Lake East at Syncrude and the Fort Hills North Pit — are inside the 2026 capital programme, and the key asset risk is mine reliability, which the 2025 record (Syncrude upgrader utilization of 100%) has eased but not removed.

2.4 Oil Sands In Situ

Firebag and MacKay River produce bitumen by steam-assisted gravity drainage and hold the largest reserve base in the company: 3,736 mmbbl of gross 2P reserves, a 40.6-year 2P life at 2025’s 92 mmbbl, and the single largest after-tax value (C$26.67 billion at 10%). Most of that value is undeveloped — C$11.2 billion of it is proved undeveloped and a further C$7.3 billion probable — so in-situ value depends on Suncor keeping up its well-pad programme; 2025 extensions added 345 mmbbl of proved reserves from improved recovery, new MacKay River lands and more Firebag facility capacity. The segment’s emissions-intensity lever is Expanding Solvent SAGD (ES-SAGD), which adds solvent to the steam, and its key risk is the steam-oil ratio of new pads.

2.5 Refining & Marketing

The downstream runs Edmonton (146,000 bbl/d), Montreal (137,000), Sarnia (85,000) and Commerce City (98,000) — 466,000 bbl/d before the re-rating that took nameplate to 511,000 bbl/d from January 2026 — and sells through 1,732 Petro-Canada stations in Canada, 193 branded sites in Colorado and Wyoming, and a wholesale arm. Throughput was a record 480,300 bbl/d in 2025 and the LIFO refining and marketing margin C$39.50/bbl. Two retail deals extend the network: Canadian Tire is rebranding more than 200 of its fuel sites to Petro-Canada with Suncor as primary supplier, and a 2023 co-ownership agreement with North Atlantic combines the two retail networks and rebrands a number of its sites. The strategic point is the natural hedge: when the WCS heavy-oil discount widens, Suncor’s refineries buy that cheaper crude, so integration offsets part of the price dislocation a heavy-oil producer suffers. Refining & Marketing EBITDA has run between C$2.1 billion (2020) and C$6.6 billion (2022), averaging C$4.08 billion over 2020–2025 — the mid-cycle figure Section 7 values.

2.6 E&P Canada and other assets

E&P Canada holds 48% of Terra Nova (operator), 38.6–40% of White Rose, 19.5–20% of Hibernia and 21.0% of Hebron, producing about 21 mmbbl in 2025 at C$92.70/bbl — Brent-linked, above the oil-sands barrel — and holding 247 mmbbl of 2P reserves; the West White Rose extension is due to start production in 2026. Suncor also holds unbooked interests in Libya’s Sirte Basin (producing, reported on an economic basis, no reserves booked) and in Syria (suspended since 2011), and runs Canada’s largest ethanol plant at St. Clair (390 million litres in 2025). None is material to the NAV.

2.7 Production, reserves & costs

Figure 4. Upstream production, 2023–2025

Figure data: the operating summary of Suncor’s 2025 MD&A (745,700 / 827,600 / 860,200 bbl/d × 365); guidance per the 2026 guidance release .

Costs. Suncor reports cash operating costs per barrel by asset rather than one all-in figure: C$26.55 at Oil Sands operations, C$33.10 at Fort Hills and C$33.70 at Syncrude in 2025, guided to C$26–29, C$33–36 and C$34–37 for 2026. The integration matters as much as the unit cost: the oil-sands barrel realised C$11.67 below Canadian-dollar WTI in 2025, and the refineries recapture part of that gap.

Reserves. Gross 1P reserves are 4.74 billion barrels and 2P 7.44 billion (NI 51-101, forecast prices, 31 December 2025) — a 15.1-year proved and 23.7-year 2P reserve life on 2025 production. In 2025 extensions and revisions added 426 mmbbl of proved reserves against 314 mmbbl produced, a 136% proved replacement. Oil-sands decline is low, but most of the probable and proved-undeveloped barrels need new well pads and mine extensions to produce, which is why Section 7 values them at the evaluator’s scheduled development cost rather than as free.

2.8 Peer positioning

The peer set used for every scorecard star in Section 9 is Canada’s other large oil-sands and integrated producers — the names Suncor competes with for capital. None is subject to a pending acquisition.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: each peer’s figures as published in its own analysis on this site, built on its 2025 annual filings — Canadian Oil Sands Majors Compared (2026) puts the four on one construction; Suncor per Table 1. Imperial books proved reserves only under SEC rules and is ~69.6% owned by ExxonMobil, so the proved column is the only comparable life. Screen the full peer set on Metal Pilot.

Suncor has the deepest downstream integration of the four — five refineries and the largest retail network — and a balance sheet only Imperial’s, at about C$1.1 billion of net debt, beats. Its gap is reserve depth: on the proved basis that all four regimes share, its 15-year life sits third of four, behind Canadian Natural’s 31 years and Cenovus’s 17.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 4. Five-year financial summary (C$m unless stated, years ended 31 December)

Source: Suncor’s audited financial statements for 2021 (2021 and the 2020 base for the growth rate), 2023 (2022–2023) and 2025 (2024–2025) — statements of comprehensive income, cash flows and the segment note; the sustaining / economic split per the financial summary of the 2025 MD&A , which does not reach back to 2021–2022. Net debt for 2021–2022 is the statements’ capital-structure figure less lease liabilities, the definition Suncor adopted in 2024; 2023–2025 as the 2025 MD&A restates them. 2022 DD&A includes impairment. Twelve months to 30 June 2026: EBITDA C$20.7 bn, lifted by the 2026 oil spike.

Figure 5. Operating cash flow, 2021–2025

Figure data: consolidated statements of cash flows in the 2021 , 2023 and 2025 audited statements.

The record is a business that turns oil-price-sensitive cash flow into a smaller share count and a lighter balance sheet. Operating cash flow ran above net earnings every year (DD&A of C$5.9–8.8 billion is non-cash), free cash flow stayed between C$6.5 billion and C$10.7 billion, and the weighted diluted share count fell 18% from 1,489 million to 1,220 million while net debt fell by more than half. The three-statement red-flag review in the Financial Metrics for Commodity Investing guide passes: margins are real (32–40% EBITDA), the cash backs the profit, and dilution runs in the shareholders’ favour. The one quality note is 2022, whose earnings carried an impairment inside DD&A.

Capex and the cost deck. Of 2025’s C$5.66 billion of capital (before capitalised interest), C$3.16 billion was asset sustainment and maintenance and C$2.50 billion “economic investment” — mine extensions, in-situ well pads, West White Rose and retail. Production guidance for 2026 is flat (840,000–870,000 bbl/d against 860,200 in 2025) on C$5.6–5.8 billion of capital, so the economic spend largely replaces depleting mine faces and well pads rather than growing output. The cost deck Section 7 runs on: guided 2026 cash operating costs of C$26–29/bbl (Oil Sands operations), C$33–36 (Fort Hills) and C$34–37 (Syncrude); price-linked Crown royalties of 8–11%, 3–5% and 9–12% of those assets’ revenue and 16–20% offshore; the reserve evaluators’ cost inflation of 0% in 2026 and 2% a year after; and an Alberta carbon cost rising from C$110/t in 2026 to a C$130/t cap from 2028. There is no tax-pool cliff to model: Suncor already pays full cash tax (C$1.94 billion current tax in 2025; C$1.7–2.0 billion guided for 2026).

Balance sheet. At 30 June 2026 net debt was C$4.48 billion (C$9.85 billion of debt less C$5.37 billion of cash), 0.2× trailing EBITDA and 0.35× the EBITDA a $60 oil deck would generate (Section 7). Lease liabilities of C$4.83 billion sit outside that definition; with them, net debt is C$9.31 billion. C$5.2 billion of credit facilities were available at year-end, the next maturities are C$559 million (2027) and C$343 million (2028), and the largest liability is the C$12.6 billion decommissioning and restoration provision (C$22.2 billion undiscounted), which Section 7 charges in full to the multiples-based methods.

Hedging. Suncor’s hedge is structural: its refineries buy the heavy barrels its upstream sells. Its derivative book is a short-dated trading and transport book — a C$323 million net asset at 30 June 2026 (at 31 December 2025 the book moved about C$328 million pre-tax per $10/bbl of crude) — with no foreign-exchange contracts at year-end; the bulk of production is unhedged.

Capital returns. The dividend is C$0.60 a quarter (C$2.40 a year, 2.7% at C$87.48), and buybacks run at C$350 million a month through July 2026 and C$500 million from August, for a projected C$4.7 billion in 2026. Dividends plus the 2026 buyback come to C$7.5 billion, a 7.3% total shareholder yield — about equal to the C$7.3 billion of free cash flow after all capital that the $70 base deck generates (Section 7); below that deck the buyback leans on the balance sheet.

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

Suncor is led by Rich Kruger, President and CEO since April 2023 and a director since 2023. He was Chairman, President and CEO of Imperial Oil from 2013 to 2019, after ExxonMobil roles that included president of ExxonMobil Production Company, and under him Suncor met its 2024 Investor Day three-year targets a year ahead of schedule. On 6 August 2026 the board named his successor: Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President Upstream, with Suncor since 2022 and before that CEO of LNG Canada, is to become President and CFO on 14 September 2026 and President and CEO in April 2027, when Kruger moves to Executive Vice Chair; the previous CFO, Troy Little, has left the company. The board is chaired by Russell Girling, former President and CEO of TC Energy; of the eleven directors the 2025 AIF lists, all but Kruger are independent, and Audit Committee chair Patricia Bedient (former Weyerhaeuser CFO) was to retire at the 2026 annual meeting — the post-meeting committee chairs are in the 2026 management circular, outside this source set. Four committees oversee the company — Audit, Governance, Human Resources and Compensation, and Environment, Health, Safety and Sustainable Development — and directors such as Lorraine Mitchelmore (former President of Shell Canada) and Christopher Seasons (former President of Devon Canada) bring oil-sands and upstream depth. The ExxonMobil operator, an in-house upstream successor and the pipeline CEO chair fit the turnaround’s two themes: reliability and market access.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The strategy is operational excellence on a low-decline base, with free cash flow returned rather than reinvested in growth. After net debt reached its target, Suncor committed to return 100% of excess funds to shareholders through buybacks — C$275 million a month in December 2025, C$350 million by the second quarter of 2026 and C$500 million from August 2026. Capital is held at the C$5.7 billion midpoint set at the 2024 Investor Day, split about 55% sustaining and 45% economic investment, the latter aimed at replacing reserves at existing assets (Mildred Lake East, the Fort Hills North Pit, in-situ pads) rather than at new projects. The named forward targets are 2026 upstream output of 840,000–870,000 bbl/d and refinery utilization of 99–102%. The 6 August 2026 leadership release adds an executive to lead “Suncor’s in situ growth plan, as outlined at the company’s recent Investor Day”; the plan’s volumes and capital are not in this source set, so no growth beyond the booked reserves is valued.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

Table 5. Capital structure and corporate events

Source: Suncor Energy 2025 Annual Information Form (retail agreements), notes 21, 26, 28 and 29 of the audited 2025 statements (partnership, joint operations, subsidiaries), the 2025 MD&A (Fort Hills), and the Q2 2026 interim statements (shares, debt, leases). Operating vehicles include Suncor Energy Oil Sands Limited Partnership, Suncor Energy Products Partnership and Fort Hills Energy Limited Partnership.

The structure is a consolidator’s: Fort Hills taken to 100%, Syncrude operated, retail extended through partners, no controlling shareholder — the contrast with ExxonMobil-controlled Imperial.

5. ESG & sustainability

Table 6. ESG snapshot

Source: Suncor Energy 2025 Annual Information Form (technology, carbon-cost assumptions) and notes 23 and 26 of the audited 2025 statements . Emissions-intensity and safety-frequency figures sit in the separate sustainability report, not in this source set (Section 10.1).

Suncor’s ESG profile is the oil-sands tension: real programmes — cogeneration, solvent-assisted recovery, an equity partnership with two First Nations — set against a carbon-intensive barrel, and a decommissioning bill that reaches C$22.2 billion undiscounted. The programmes are incremental against an asset base whose emissions and reclamation profile are permanent, which is why Dimension 9 scores adequate rather than strong.

6. Risks

Table 7. Risk register

Source: risk factors per the 2025 MD&A and the sensitivities in the 2026 guidance release ; likelihood and impact are the author’s assessment on a 1–5 scale.

Figure 6. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 7. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant. Ratings are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.

The two dominant risks are the two that dominate the valuation and they are linked: a reversion in oil and a de-rating of the oil price the shares capitalise. A stronger Canadian dollar is the quiet third — Suncor’s guidance puts every US cent on the exchange rate at C$270 million of annual cash flow. What is absent from the top-right matters as much: balance-sheet and execution risk are modest after the deleveraging.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 11 August 2026, in Canadian dollars (FX C$1.3942 per $1, Bank of Canada, 10 August 2026). Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base WTI $70/bbl — the 12-month trailing average of $74.28 (August 2025–July 2026) snapped to the fixed $60–100 grid; the 3-month ($89.13) and 6-month ($87.27) averages to July 2026 carry the March–May spike and are not representative (all three from the U.S. EIA’s monthly Cushing WTI series) — with every grid price run as a scenario (bear $60 / base $70 / bull $80 / deep bull $90 / extreme bull $100). The refining margin, 27% of enterprise value, is held at its 2020–2025 mid-cycle level in every column rather than moved with crude (the New York Harbor 2-1-1 crack averaged $34.40, $22.90 and $26.75 in 2023–2025 and $45.55 in the first half of 2026, per the MD&As; the 2026 spike is not capitalised, as with crude); the reserve evaluators’ average forecast ($59.92 for 2026, $65.10 for 2027) is a 0%-weight cross-check; no spot deck is carried. Discount rate 8% real (10.16% nominal at the evaluators’ 2% inflation). Share price C$87.48 (10 August 2026 close), 1,172.8 million shares, balance sheet 30 June 2026.

Suncor is valued as an integrated major, sum-of-the-parts, on the method set out in How to Value Commodity Stocks : the three upstream businesses on the company’s own after-tax reserve values, moved to this deck; the downstream on a mid-cycle cash-flow model; then a cash-flow multiple and a free-cash-flow yield as the two relative reads. The headline is a deck-to-value map: the blended fair value is C$67.70 per share at the $70 base price, C$40.22 at $60 and C$94.19 at $80, and each $10/bbl of WTI is worth C$17.63 of NAV per share and C$21.23 of the blend with the multiples held (Table 14). The tiers frame what a buyer owns: the developed upstream, the downstream and the whole balance-sheet bridge are worth C$34.00 per share, the undeveloped 2P reserves C$28.22, and resources beyond 2P are not valued. The current price meets that map only in Section 7.6.

Table 8. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on

Notes to Table 8

1. The WTI Cushing, Oklahoma column of the evaluators’ price table (GLJ, Sproule and McDaniel average); the same table sets US$0.7275/C$ for 2026, 0.7367 for 2027 and 0.7400 after, and cost inflation of 0% in 2026 and 2% a year after.
2. The mean of six filed segment lines — earnings before income taxes plus depreciation, depletion and amortization plus financing expenses for Refining and Marketing, 2020 to 2025 — not a figure Suncor prints; each year is listed in Note 5 to Table 11.
3. The midpoint of the range the guidance prints (for example 525,000–545,000 bbl/d of SCO → 535,000); the release gives ranges, not points.
4. Net debt is the company’s measure (total debt C$9,853 m less cash C$5,372 m), confirmed in the Q2 2026 MD&A; lease liabilities are C$725 m current plus C$4,102 m long-term.

Source: Suncor Energy 2025 Annual Information Form , the 2026 guidance release , the audited statements for 2021 , 2023 and 2025 , and the Q2 2026 interim statements . The share price moves the rating, not the valuation, so it sits in the opening block rather than here. Every figure also appears in the full source register, Table 24.

7.1 Method selection

The blend is the integrated-major default — sum-of-the-parts 50%, blended EV/EBITDA 30%, FCF-yield support 20% — carried without deviation. The FCF-yield read is struck on free cash flow after the whole capital programme rather than after sustaining capital alone, because Suncor’s “economic investment” replaces depleting mine faces and well pads at flat production (Section 3); that is the stricter of the two bases.

Table 9. Valuation method selection

Source: method-to-archetype mapping and the default weights per The Commodity Investor, Part 11: How to Value Commodity Stocks , “The archetype is the unit of analysis” and “The valuation toolkit”; archetype per Section 1. Input families: intrinsic 50% (one method); cash-flow 50% (two methods, at the ceiling for a shared family); asset and transaction 0%. Target multiples are derived in Section 7.3 from fixed archetype anchors, not from a peer set.

7.2 Net asset value

Disclosure regime and tax basis. Suncor reports under NI 51-101, which books probable reserves, so the NAV is 2P-basis, and a proved-only memo line sits beneath it. The upstream rows use the evaluators’ after-tax values — their own tax schedule, legal-entity pools included (the before-tax 2P value at 10% is C$70.9 billion, a cross-check) — and the downstream row pays the 23.88% statutory rate on EBITDA less disclosed depreciation. The evaluators deduct C$64.1 billion of inflated upstream abandonment and reclamation spending inside their values, so the upstream share of the C$12.6 billion provision prints in rows, and only the non-upstream share is bridged.

Table 10. Vehicle map

Source: this analysis; vehicles per notes 28–29, the partnership per note 26, of the audited 2025 statements ; what the reserve values include per the 2025 AIF notes to the future net revenue tables. No asset appears both inside a vehicle’s value and as its own line.

No stage risk is charged. Every business is producing; the undeveloped reserves are carried at the evaluators’ scheduled development capital (C$101.8 billion undiscounted for 2P), so no risk weight or rate premium is added. Jurisdiction carries no premium either: Dimension 8 scores ★★★★ (Canada).

Table 11. Per-asset NPV build — base case ($70 WTI, 8% real)

Notes to Table 11

1. The evaluators print after-tax values at 0, 5, 10, 15 and 20% on a nominal, escalating deck; 8% real at their 2% inflation is 10.16% nominal, reached by linear interpolation between the printed 10% and 15% columns. The sensitivity grid’s rate rows interpolate the same way (Figure 8, note 2).
2. The reserve values are dated 31 December 2025 and the balance sheet 30 June 2026. Rolling forward accretes half a year and removes the half-year of cash flow now sitting in the balance sheet, sized as the level annual cash flow that reproduces the 10.16% value over the segment’s 2P reserve life.
3. The evaluators’ WTI in 2026 dollars — $59.92, $63.82, $67.55, then $67.78 from 2029 once 2% inflation is removed — weighted by 8% real discount factors over each segment’s remaining life from 30 June 2026: the second half of 2026 at the 2026 price, then each calendar year at mid-year.
4. The evaluators assume US$0.7275/C$ in 2026, US$0.7367 in 2027 and US$0.74 after; weighted the same way, about US$0.739 against the market’s US$0.7173 (C$1.3942). A weaker Canadian dollar raises every Canadian-dollar realisation, and Suncor’s guidance prices that at C$270 m of annual cash flow per US cent.
5. EBITDA = earnings before income taxes + DD&A + financing expenses for the segment: C$2,071 m (2020), C$3,776 m (2021), C$6,595 m (2022), C$4,374 m (2023), C$3,657 m (2024), C$3,981 m (2025). The window holds a trough and a peak.
6. FY2025 Refining and Marketing depreciation stands in for tax depreciation; the downstream carries no tax pools of its own in the income-tax note.
7. An estimate, not a disclosed life: refineries run for decades, but a finite 20-year horizon keeps a spread business from being capitalised as a perpetuity; 25 years would add C$1.9 bn (C$1.65/share).

Source: this analysis, from the after-tax future net revenue and price tables of the 2025 AIF (NI 51-101, GLJ Ltd., effective 31 December 2025), the sensitivities and capital guidance of the 2026 guidance release , and the segment notes of the audited statements cited in Table 8. Row numbers restart in each block. Every figure is computed on unrounded inputs; the model file reproduces each block.

Table 12. Per-asset model — base case ($70 WTI, 8% real)

Source: this analysis; reserves, operating and development costs per the total future net revenue and future development cost tables of the 2025 AIF ; the refining inputs per Table 11, block 4. Every value in the last column reproduces from its block in Table 11. The AIF states that the Libya and Syria contingent resources are not disclosed, so no resource row can be built (assumptions box, gap 1).

Table 13. NAV build-up and equity bridge (base case — $70 WTI, 8% real)

Source: this analysis; balance-sheet lines per the Q2 2026 interim statements and notes 18, 20, 21 and 23 of the audited 2025 statements ; rows numbered straight down. The developed share of each upstream block follows the filed after-tax 10% split between proved developed and all other 2P. The tiers sum to the published NAV per share: 34.00 + 28.22 + 0.00 = C$62.22 — and the price, C$87.48, is 2.6 times the producing tier alone.

What the bridge says. Claims ahead of the shareholder take C$16.5 billion, 18% of the C$89.5 billion enterprise value of the four businesses. Net debt and leases are more than half of that; capitalised head-office cost is next at C$5.25 billion, the running cost of an integrated group that no asset value carries. Upstream is 73% of the enterprise NAV (Mining 32%, In Situ 34%, E&P Canada 7%) and the downstream 27%, which is why oil moves Suncor’s NAV less than a pure producer’s: the refining block is held at mid-cycle in every column.

Figure 7. Sum-of-the-parts NAV build-up

Figure data: Table 13. “Other lines” nets the hedge book (+C$323 m), investments and receivable (+C$747 m), the non-upstream reclamation share (−C$227 m) and the partnership liability (−C$365 m).

Figure 8. NAV/share sensitivity, 2P-basis — WTI price × discount rate (C$/share)

		WTI price ($/bbl)
		$60	Base$70	$80	$90	$100
Discount rate (real)	6%	C$56.41	C$77.37	C$98.32	C$119.28	C$140.24
	8% (base)	C$44.59	C$62.22	C$79.84	C$97.47	C$115.10
	10%	C$38.31	C$53.43	C$68.56	C$83.69	C$98.81

Notes to Figure 8

1. Checksum — $60 at 8%: Mining C$21,495.2 m − C$8,662.7 m deck term + C$3,401.6 m FX term = C$16,234.0 m; In Situ C$26,298.0 m − C$5,380.3 m + C$2,076.3 m = C$22,994.0 m; E&P C$5,842.5 m − C$704.0 m + C$281.6 m = C$5,420.1 m; Refining C$23,804.4 m; enterprise NAV C$68,452.5 m, less a bridge of C$16,156.4 m (hedge re-marked to +C$651.0 m) = C$52,296.2 m ÷ 1,172.8 m = C$44.59.
2. Rate rows — the upstream values are re-struck at 8.12%, 10.16% and 12.20% nominal by linear interpolation between the evaluators’ printed 5%, 10% and 15% columns (Mining C$24,491.3 m / 21,780.3 m / 19,604.5 m; In Situ C$36,124.9 m / 26,357.2 m / 22,407.8 m; E&P C$6,398.3 m / 5,993.4 m / 5,654.8 m); the half-year roll re-accretes at the row’s nominal rate, the evaluators’-equivalent deck and FX are re-weighted at the row’s real rate, and the deck, FX, refining and G&A annuities take that rate too; linear interpolation sits slightly high against a curve through all five printed columns (C$0.12 at base, C$2.84 on the 6% row, C$0.80 in the $60 column at 10%, no band change); working capital, the hedge book and the other bridge lines are held.
3. Cost — upstream operating cost +10% (C$1,028.7 m a year before tax on the C$10,287 m 2026 base, taken after tax over the 23.2-year group life) takes NAV per share to C$55.27 (−11.2%); price +10% ($77) gives C$74.56 (+19.8%), or C$71.08 (+14.3%) with costs rising 5% behind it.
4. FX — a Canadian dollar 10% stronger (US$0.7890) gives C$46.09 (−25.9%), 10% weaker (US$0.6455) C$78.35 (+25.9%): a stronger Canadian dollar lowers the equity. The financial-risk note’s own figure — C$100 m pre-tax per US cent — covers only the U.S.-dollar debt, about C$5.3 bn, held at the base rate here; moving it with the ±10% case offsets about C$0.45/share.
5. Stage risk — n/a: no asset carries a risk weight; every business is producing.
6. Schedule slip — the undeveloped 2P value (C$33.1 bn, 37% of enterprise NAV) one year later, discounted one more year at 10.16% nominal: C$59.61 (−C$2.60). The milestone is the pace of in-situ well pads and mine extensions in the evaluators’ development schedule (C$5.0 bn of 2P capital in 2026).
7. Second deck — the refining margin is held at its 2020–2025 mid-cycle level in every column (26.6% of enterprise NAV); one $5/bbl step in the New York Harbor 2-1-1 crack, on the guided C$180 m of cash flow per $1 held for 20 years, moves NAV per share by ±C$7.53. Natural gas, an input cost, stays on the evaluators’ AECO deck (guided −C$250 m per C$1/GJ; one C$0.50/GJ step ≈ C$1.11/share). No part of either exposure is carried at cost.

Figure data: this analysis’ model (Tables 11–13), every cell recomputed at its column’s price and its row’s rate, never scaled. Price columns are the fixed crude grid, grid version 2026-09 ($60–100 WTI); base case $70 at 8% real. A one-step ($10) WTI move shifts NAV per share by C$17.63, or 28%; the deck sensitivity is tabulated in Table 14.

Reading the grid. Each $10 on WTI moves the NAV by about C$17.6 a share at 8% (C$44.59, C$62.22, C$79.84), 28% of the base, while two points on the discount rate move it by C$8.79 to C$15.15. The deck matters most and the currency next: a Canadian dollar 10% stronger takes C$16.13 off, almost as much as $10 off oil. The C$87.48 share price sits between the $80 and $90 columns on the 8% row, and between the $70 and $80 columns even at 6%: the market’s price needs oil near $84 (NAV parity) or a rate below the convention to be matched by the assets alone.

Table 14. Deck sensitivity — value per $10/bbl step of WTI (C$/share unless stated; base rate, target multiples held)

Source: this analysis, Tables 11–13 and 16–20; every step is the difference between two recomputed grid prices, never a fitted slope. % of base divides each line’s per-step move by its own base-price value — a leverage read. ¹ FCF/share crosses zero near $45, below the grid. ² The crack rows use the guided C$180 m after-tax sensitivity per $1 held over the refining life; the multiples read it as C$236 m of pre-tax EBITDA. ³ The blend steps unevenly because the rate (10% at $60) and the multiples (×0.90 to ×1.30) move with the column. How to use it: start from the base-price values (NAV per share C$62.22, blend C$67.70) and add the per-step figure for every $10 away from $70 — a flat $75 deck gives a NAV of about C$71.0 and a held-multiple blend of about C$78.3; to also move the rate and the multiples, use the scenario columns in Table 20.

The price map that restates a single-asset NAV at fixed P/NAV levels is not published here: an integrated sum-of-the-parts has no single target P/NAV to read it against, so the relative methods carry the multiple instead.

7.3 Relative valuation

At C$87.48 and 1,172.8 million shares Suncor’s market capitalisation is C$102.6 billion and its enterprise value C$107.1 billion on company net debt (C$111.9 billion with leases). Each target multiple is the fixed anchor for an integrated major, moved by the signed terms the Section 9 scorecard supports — no peer multiples appear here; reading Suncor against named peers on observed multiples is the sector comparison ’s job. “Forward” is the next twelve months; Suncor has guided 2026 but not 2027, so the 2026 guidance year stands in, at the base deck. The $70 base sits 11% below WTI’s five-year average of $78.81 (August 2021–July 2026), inside the ±25% band that marks mid-cycle, so the multiples flex with the deck across the scenarios.

Table 15. Target-multiple driver line (one line, applied to every multiple)

Source: this analysis; each term is tied to one scored dimension, capped at ±10%, and no fact is charged twice; Dimensions 4, 7 and 8 carry no term. The negative ESG term sits on a ★★★ score because the carbon cost is a cash cost the anchor does not see. Anchors per the valuation guide linked in Section 7, “The valuation toolkit”.

Target EV/EBITDA = 5.5× anchor × 1.09 = 5.995× → 6.0× · Target FCF yield = 8.0% anchor ÷ 1.09 = 7.34% → 7.3% (a premium to value is a lower yield demanded). The rounded figures are the ones every table uses.

Table 16. Forward EBITDA build — the 2026 guidance year at the base deck

Source: this analysis; volumes and costs per the 2026 guidance release , realisations per the 2025 MD&A (net of transport, before royalties; C$90.47 is 2025 WTI in Canadian dollars implied by the C$11.67 weighted-average discount), royalties and segment costs per note 6 of the audited 2025 statements . Calibration check: the same build on 2025 volumes, realisations and cash costs gives Oil Sands EBITDA of C$10,513 m against C$11,063 m reported (−5.0%), within 10%. Royalty rates are held at their 2025 levels; the rate rises with price, so the build overstates EBITDA above $70 and understates it below. Oil Sands cash costs are the asset-level measures the reserve values also carry; the difference from the evaluators’ life-of-reserve cost is one of definition, not arithmetic.

Table 17. Relative valuation — implied value per share (base case)

Source: this analysis; the implied EV crosses every NAV bridge line except capitalised G&A, which EBITDA already carries, and deducts the whole decommissioning provision because EBITDA carries no abandonment. Values computed on unrounded inputs.

The EV/EBITDA read, C$65.43, lands 5% above the NAV (C$62.22): six times a mid-cycle-refining, base-deck EBITDA and a 2P sum-of-the-parts price the same company much the same way. Both sit well below the C$87.48 price.

7.4 FCF-yield support

Table 18. FCF-yield support build — the 2026 guidance year at the base deck

Source: this analysis; capital guidance per the 2026 guidance release , DD&A, interest and lease payments per the audited 2025 statements , every trailing line from FY2025. Tax check: at the $62 guidance deck the build’s tax is C$1,456 m against C$1.7–2.0 bn guided current tax, so the statutory-on-book-depreciation basis understates cash tax by roughly C$0.4 bn at that deck; direction: this method overstated, by about C$4.6/share at the guided midpoint and up to C$6.4 at the top of the range (C$0.92–1.27 on the blend).

The FCF-yield read is the richest of the three at C$84.83, 25% above the blend: 7.3% is a perpetual yield on one guidance year, so it leans on Suncor’s ability to keep replacing reserves forever. That is why it carries 20%.

7.5 Cross-checks

Table 19. Cross-checks — reported, reconciled, never weighted

Source: this analysis, solved on the Tables 11–18 model; WTI series per the U.S. EIA , monthly to July 2026; EV/EBITDA history and consensus per stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence), read 11 Aug 2026; dividend-yield history from the same page (4.01%, 5.07%, 5.48%, 4.58%, 3.85%).

7.6 Scenarios & fair value

Every weighted method is re-run at each grid price. The rate steps to 10% in the bear column and holds at 8%, the E&P convention, above base; because the base deck sits near mid-cycle, the target multiples flex with the deck (×0.90 at $60 to ×1.30 at $100); the refining margin, working capital and the other bridge lines are held, and the hedge book is re-marked.

Table 20. Scenarios & fair value — inputs, value per method and the blend by grid price (C$/share)

Source: this analysis; weights per Section 7.1; scenario names by offset from the base price. Base blend on a calculator: 0.50 × 62.22 + 0.30 × 65.43 + 0.20 × 84.83 = 31.11 + 19.63 + 16.97 = C$67.70 (on unrounded values 67.703). Inputs behind the rows, by column: hedge mark C$651 m / 323 m / −5 m / −333 m / −661 m; EV/EBITDA targets 5.4× / 6.0× / 6.6× / 7.2× / 7.8×; FCF-yield targets 8.2% / 7.3% / 6.7% / 6.1% / 5.6%; forward EBITDA C$12,955 m / 16,727 m / 20,499 m / 24,271 m / 28,043 m; FCF after all capital C$4,392 m / 7,263 m / 10,134 m / 13,005 m / 15,876 m. The refining margin is held at mid-cycle in every column. Adding the 2.7% dividend yield, the implied one-year total return at base is −19.9% — reported, not rated. Illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.

Figure 9. Value per share by method and scenario

		Scenario (WTI deck)
		Bear$60	Base$70	Bull$80	Deep Bull$90	Extreme Bull$100
Method	SOTP NAV (50%)	C$38.31(−38%)	C$62.22(base)	C$79.84(+28%)	C$97.47(+57%)	C$115.10(+85%)
	EV/EBITDA (30%)	C$39.78(−39%)	C$65.43(base)	C$94.93(+45%)	C$128.29(+96%)	C$165.52(+153%)
	FCF-yield (20%)	C$45.67(−46%)	C$84.83(base)	C$128.97(+52%)	C$181.78(+114%)	C$241.73(+185%)
	Blended fair value	C$40.22(−41%)	C$67.70(base)	C$94.19(+39%)	C$123.58(+83%)	C$155.55(+130%)

Source: this analysis; each cell recomputed at its column’s deck, rate, multiples and hedge mark (Table 20); shading ranked 0–9 across the whole grid. Current share price C$87.48 (10 Aug 2026); market-implied deck ~$79.32 WTI. The bracketed figure under each value is its change against the same row’s base-case value.

Conclusion. The blended base-case fair value is C$67.70, inside a C$40.22 (Bear, $60) – C$155.55 (Extreme Bull, $100) range, against a C$87.48 price — an implied −22.6%, Modestly overvalued (wide band), the qualifier earned because the Bear blend sits 54% below the price. The anchor method is the sum-of-the-parts, and the three reads spread 36% at base — the FCF-yield read above, the NAV and the multiple together below — because a perpetual yield on one year credits reserve replacement the NAV counts only to 2P. At the base deck the 2026 free cash flow after all capital is C$7.3 billion, a 7.1% yield on the C$102.6 billion market capitalisation. Rating-flip prices: the blend, multiples held, crosses up into Fairly valued above ~$75.20/bbl WTI (+7.4% from the $70 base) and down into Overvalued below ~$66.95 (−4.4%) — a narrow corridor, so the read is a statement about oil more than about Suncor. The one assumption that drives the downside is WTI settling back near $60, where every method loses 38–46%. The market-implied read is the finding: at ~$79.32 flat, the share price capitalises the average of 2021–2026 — a period that included the 2022 spike and the 2026 war premium — as the permanent price of oil. The Street’s C$100.32 target sits higher still, a 12-month figure on nearer-term decks.

Table 21. Assumptions box

Source: this analysis; every input and rate as stated in Tables 8–20. The box is set as a table because it runs past 400 words. To run the same NAV and multiples across every North American integrated and upstream peer, screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 22. Near-term catalysts

Source: the 2026 guidance release , the 2025 MD&A (West White Rose, planned investments) and the Q2 2026 MD&A (buyback, nameplate capacity). All timing is company guidance, not a guarantee.

Suncor’s catalysts are deliberately unglamorous. The largest is mechanical — cash that used to repay debt now retires shares — and the operating ones hold the base flat rather than grow it. The one swing factor the company does not control, the oil price, remains larger than all of them.

9. Rating & verdict

Suncor is scored on the nine dimensions every analysis in this series uses, against the peer set in Section 2.8. As an integrated major it is scored at the group level on the reference weighting the sibling integrated analyses of Imperial Oil and Cenovus also use: asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation at 15% each; growth, management, jurisdiction and ESG at 6.25% each. No dimension is marked not applicable.

Table 23. Scorecard rationale

Source: each row cites its evidence in this analysis; peer references are the set declared in Section 2.8 and its sector comparison . Rows are ordered by weight, the dimension number breaking ties.

Weighted average: (0.15 × 4) + (0.15 × 4) + (0.15 × 3) + (0.15 × 5) + (0.15 × 4) + (0.0625 × 3) + (0.0625 × 4) + (0.0625 × 4) + (0.0625 × 3) = 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.45 + 0.75 + 0.60 + 0.1875 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.1875 = 3.88/5 → ★★★★, Solid.

The two-axis verdict. Composite quality ★★★★ (Solid, 3.9/5); value read Modestly overvalued (wide band) as of 11 August 2026 — a blended fair value of C$67.70 against C$87.48, an implied −22.6%, with the share price embedding a market-implied oil deck of ~$79 against the $70 base; verdict: Full — the market already sees it. Suncor is a well-run, low-leverage integrated company whose price already assumes oil stays near its elevated five-year average. The multiples behind the value read sit above their anchors — 6.0× EV/EBITDA against 5.5×, a 7.3% FCF yield against 8.0% — carried by the balance sheet (Dim 5), the integrated asset base (Dim 1), cost capture (Dim 2) and capital returns (Dim 6), less the carbon burden (Dim 9).

The bull case is the machine: a low-decline base, a refining hedge no pure producer has, and a buyback that will retire about 6% of the shares a year. The bear case is the price: C$87.48 is 1.41 times a 2P sum-of-the-parts NAV and 2.6 times the value of the developed assets, downstream and balance sheet alone. What tips it is oil. Above about $75 WTI the read moves to fairly valued; below about $67 it moves to overvalued. The quality axis is the durable one — it moves with the assets, while the value read moves with the quote.

To rank Suncor against every North American upstream and integrated peer on these same nine dimensions — reserves, costs, reserve life, balance sheet — screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. The 2025 Annual Information Form (NI 51-101 reserves and future net revenue by GLJ Ltd., effective 31 December 2025; assets, directors, retail network), the audited 2025 financial statements and 2025 MD&A , the audited statements for 2023 and 2021 , the 2026 guidance release (11 December 2025), and the Q2 2026 interim statements and MD&A (4 August 2026), all filed on EDGAR under Forms 40-F and 6-K.

Market and agency data. The TSX close of 10 August 2026 from the stockanalysis.com price history ; the Bank of Canada daily exchange rate; WTI from the U.S. EIA monthly series; EV/EBITDA and dividend-yield history and the analyst consensus from stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence). Peer figures from the sibling analyses gathered in the sector comparison ; the market backdrop in the Oil — A Complete Market Guide .

Methodology. Durable structure (reserves, assets, costs, ownership) is kept apart from the dated market layer (price, market capitalisation, multiples, valuation). Data as of 11 August 2026: market data at the TSX close of 10 August 2026; reserves effective 31 December 2025; production FY2025; balance sheet 30 June 2026. Suncor reports in Canadian dollars under IFRS on a calendar year. Archetype: integrated major, scored at the group level with weights summing to 100% and valued sum-of-the-parts on a $70 WTI base inside the fixed $60–100 grid. Peer basis: Canada’s large oil-sands and integrated producers, compared on proved reserve life where regimes differ. Reserve lives are gross reserves over gross production. Where the MD&A’s non-GAAP measures and the statements differ, the statements win. Three figures from the standard set are not drawn: the asset map (Table 2 carries the footprint, and a map would add no figure the table lacks), a by-commodity revenue split (Suncor sells only oil, stated in Section 2.2), and production before 2023 (the earliest year this source set’s MD&A carries). Emissions-intensity and safety-frequency figures sit in the sustainability report, outside this source set. Documents to request before the next run: the GLJ reserve report’s operating-cost detail (whether lease payments sit inside the evaluators’ costs — the one load-bearing gap), Suncor’s 4 August 2026 guidance update (royalties, current tax), the 2025 sustainability report, and the FY2026 annual filings. Update cadence: refreshed on each annual report and on material events.

Re-run log. 11 August 2026: first published at this as-of date. 24 September 2026: re-aligned to the current template on the same as-of date — the share price corrected to the 10 August close (C$87.48, where C$88.08 was the day’s high); the valuation rebuilt from the filed reserve values on the fixed $60–100 grid; reserve lives restated on gross volumes by category; the five-year table rebuilt from the audited statements; Dimension 3 re-scored ★★★ on proved reserve life, taking the composite from 4.18 to 3.88; the read is unchanged at Modestly overvalued (wide band), implied −22.6%. 24 September 2026, pre-launch review: management updated for the 6 August 2026 succession release; the Mining undiscounted-value sentence, the peer leverage claim, four citations and the guidance-midpoint notes corrected; the proved-only memo restated to C$47.58 on a single scaling; the refining-margin and yield-support cross-checks restated on their definitions; no valuation figure behind the read moved.

Provenance: Suncor Energy Inc. — Annual Information Form — 2025.

The full register below lists every figure Section 7 takes from outside this analysis, document by document; the load-bearing subset is Table 8.

Table 24. Full source register — every figure §7 takes from a filing or a market series

Notes to Table 24

1. Page numbers count the EDGAR copy’s page breaks, which run one ahead of the page numbers printed in the AIF; the quoted labels are searchable either way.
2. The developed tranche’s share of each segment’s 10% value (Mining 76.2%, In Situ 30.5%, E&P 21.3%) splits the base-deck values into the producing and development tiers.
3. Interest paid, C$898 m, is on the consolidated statement of cash flows (p.7); interest expense is net of C$198 m capitalised.
4. Midpoints of the guided ranges, as in Table 8, note 3.
5. The share price moves the rating, not the valuation, so it is not a register row; it sits in the Section 7 opening block with its source.

Source: the documents in each band — 2025 AIF , 2025 financial statements , 2025 MD&A , 2026 guidance , 2023 and 2021 statements, Q2 2026 statements , U.S. EIA , Bank of Canada and stockanalysis.com . Figures as each document prints them, in C$ millions unless stated.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 11 August 2026: the share price, market capitalisation, multiples and valuation read all move, and integrated oil equities are sensitive to the oil price, refining margins and the exchange rate. Reserve values, forecasts and the scenario decks are estimates, prepared on the bases stated beside each table. The Quality × Value verdict is an analytical read, never an instruction to the reader. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from primary filings and reviewed, but readers should verify every number against the original documents before acting on it. The author holds no position in Suncor Energy Inc. or in any company named here. Please do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser.