Aris Mining (ARIS) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Analysis as of 1 August 2026. Fundamentals come from Aris Mining’s 2025 Annual Information Form and audited financial statements (year ended 31 December 2025, filed 11 March 2026), its second-quarter 2026 results (7 July / 4 August 2026 disclosures) and its named technical reports. Market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of 25 July 2026 and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly undervalued → a re-rating candidate, with an unusually wide scenario spread. Price deck: a conservative long-term/reserve deck of US$2,800/oz (the price Aris itself uses to declare its 2025 Segovia reserves — the anchor for the base-case NAV below); spot of US$4,050/oz (1 August 2026); and a 2027 bank-consensus deck of US$5,400/oz (the average of J.P. Morgan, UBS and Goldman Sachs year-end-2027 targets). Gold trades near an all-time high as of this analysis — the spread between the conservative and spot decks is the single biggest driver of the valuation range below, and it is unusually wide. All dollar figures are US dollars unless marked otherwise. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Aris Mining runs two of the highest-grade underground gold mines outside a specialist high-grade peer group — Segovia’s 2025 reserves average 10.70 g/t, roughly five times a typical open-pit senior’s grade — while quietly assembling two of the largest undeveloped gold projects in South America behind them. The thesis in one line: a self-funding, low-leverage Colombian gold producer is doubling near-term output through two already-under-construction expansions, while a fully-owned $2.7–3.3 billion project (Soto Norte) and a $1.8 billion project (Toroparu) sit in the wings, all at a market cap that a conservative, reserve-price-based sum-of-the-parts model already prices as roughly fairly-to-modestly-valued — before crediting a cent of upside from gold trading near $4,050/oz today. Why look now: net debt fell from $241 million to just $44 million in eighteen months while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled, and the market has not yet re-rated the multiple to match. To screen every listed gold producer on AISC, reserve life and net debt/EBITDA side by side, go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Aris Mining Corporation (TSX: ARIS; NYSE: ARIS) is a gold producer/operator headquartered jointly in Vancouver, Canada and Bogotá, Colombia. By archetype it is a producer, with all nine scorecard dimensions applying at the reference weighting (Section 9); it carries a material development pipeline (Soto Norte and Toroparu, both with completed economic studies) that is valued sum-of-the-parts alongside the two producing mines (Section 7). Sector class: precious-metal miner. The Company traces to the September 2022 merger of GCM Mining Corp. (formerly Gran Colombia Gold Corp.) and Aris Gold Corporation, itself founded in 2020 by Neil Woodyer — the former CEO of Endeavour Mining and Leagold Mining — following the Leagold–Equinox Gold merger. Aris Mining operates the Segovia and Marmato underground gold mines in Colombia, which together produced 256,503 oz of gold in 2025, and owns 100% of two large, technically-studied growth projects: the high-grade Soto Norte project in Santander, Colombia (prefeasibility study complete) and the large-scale Toroparu project in Guyana (preliminary economic assessment complete). (AISC = all-in sustaining cost, US$ per ounce sold; P&P = proven & probable mineral reserves; M&I = measured & indicated mineral resources; NPV5% = after-tax net present value at a 5% discount rate.)

Figure 1. Aris Mining in numbers

Figure data: Aris Mining Reports Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results , 11 March 2026, and Aris Mining Reports Q2 2026 Results , 7 July 2026; market data per stockanalysis.com , 25 Jul 2026. Reserves per Table 2 (this analysis, aggregated from the named per-asset sources). Rating per Section 9, valuation read per Section 7.

Table 1. Aris Mining in numbers

Source: Q4/FY2025 results ; Q2 2026 results ; stockanalysis.com , 25 Jul 2026, for market data and the consensus target. Listed: Public (TSX: ARIS; NYSE: ARIS), included in the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

Thesis in brief. Bull: two high-grade, cash-generative Colombian mines are self-funding two simultaneous expansions toward a combined ~500,000 oz/yr run rate, net debt has collapsed to near zero, and a fully-owned pipeline (Soto Norte, Toroparu) carries a combined technical-report NPV several times the current market cap — at today’s spot gold price the sum-of-the-parts NAV is more than double the share price. Bear: every current ounce comes from one country, Colombia’s sovereign rating was cut to BB- in April 2026, Soto Norte sits in the historically contested Santurbán páramo where a constitutional-court mining ban blocked a predecessor project for a decade, and the entire bull case leans on gold holding near an all-time high — a price this analysis’s own conservative deck ($2,800/oz) treats as the exception, not the rule. What tips it: whether Soto Norte clears Colombia’s environmental licensing process (application targeted for Q2 2026) without repeating the Santurbán precedent, and whether gold gives back a meaningful share of its 2025–2026 rally. The full rating and its rationale are in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

Aris Mining sits entirely downstream of the gold price with no by-product credits to soften a move against it — both mines are essentially pure-gold operations, so every dollar of margin tracks bullion directly. Gold has rallied hard into 2026, and the swings have been large even within this year: spot sat near US$4,050/oz on 1 August 2026, while Aris realized an average of US$4,450/oz in the second quarter alone. For the supply, demand and price-regime picture behind that move, see the Gold — A Complete Market Guide . This section spends its words on the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview & map

Table 2. Asset portfolio, 1 August 2026

*Source: Aris Mining expands high-grade Segovia reserve and resource estimates , 8 Jan 2026 (Segovia, effective 28 Nov 2025); Aris Mining announces updated Marmato expansion PFS , Nov 2022 (Marmato, effective 30 Jun 2022 — the last mineral reserve estimate located for this analysis); Aris Mining announces positive prefeasibility study results for the Soto Norte gold project , Sept 2025; Aris Mining announces positive PEA results for the Toroparu gold project , 28 Oct 2025. All reserve/resource figures are estimates under NI 43-101; Marmato’s figures are the most dated in the portfolio and are flagged as such (rule A9). Listing: Public (TSX: ARIS; NYSE: ARIS) — all four assets are wholly owned; no third-party operator or royalty encumbers any of them.

Concentration read. Every ounce Aris currently produces comes from two mines in two adjoining Colombian departments — a genuine single-country concentration this analysis returns to repeatedly (Sections 6, 9). The picture shifts materially once the pipeline delivers: Soto Norte and Toroparu together hold 12.3 Moz of M&I resources, more than three times the M&I base of the two producing mines combined, and Toroparu alone would be Aris’s first production outside Colombia. (An asset map is a natural next visual for this section; it is omitted from this draft per this post type’s component-only rule — see Section 10.1.)

2.2 Revenue split — by asset

Aris is a single-commodity gold producer with no material by-product credits (silver and other by-products are immaterial to revenue), so the by-metal split collapses to effectively 100% gold — there is no meaningful second bar to draw. The concentration that matters here is by asset:

Figure 2. FY2025 revenue by asset

Figure data: derived from Aris Mining’s FY2025/Q4 2025 results , 11 March 2026, “Total Segovia Operating Information.” The Company does not separately disclose Marmato’s exact realized price, so the split above is estimated from each mine’s ounces sold at the consolidated average realized price — treat it as approximate rather than a company-reported figure.

Segovia carries roughly nine-tenths of current revenue, a concentration that will ease sharply once Marmato’s new CIP plant reaches design capacity in 2027 and, further out, once Soto Norte and Toroparu contribute. Until then, Segovia’s mill performance is the single biggest swing factor in Aris’s near-term cash flow.

2.3 Segovia — the high-grade cash engine (Antioquia, Colombia)

Segovia is Aris’s largest and highest-margin asset: 227,762 oz produced in 2025 (+21% YoY), at gold grades of 9.82 g/t and recoveries of 96.1%, aided by a 17% increase in tonnes milled following the installation of a second ball mill, completed June 2025. The reserve base is exceptional by any peer standard: the November 2025 update lifted proven & probable reserves 12% to 1.50 Moz at 10.70 g/t, and measured & indicated resources 7% to 3.63 Moz at 15.30 g/t (with a further 2.86 Moz inferred at 14.13 g/t) — reserves were declared at a conservative US$2,800/oz and resources at US$3,200/oz, both well below spot. A structurally distinctive feature of the operation is its Contract Mining Partner (CMP) program: roughly 2,500 small-scale, formalized miners work within or adjacent to Aris’s titles and sell their production to the Company, contributing 90,285 oz (35% of Segovia’s 2025 gold sold) at a higher unit cost ($1,973/oz AISC, an 44% AISC sales margin) than owner-operated mining ($1,534/oz AISC, within the disclosed 2025 guidance range of $1,450–1,600/oz). 2026 guidance targets 265,000–300,000 oz at an owner-mining AISC of $1,700–1,800/oz, the increase driven by higher mill feed from both owner mining and CMP-sourced material as the second mill fully ramps. The key asset-level risk is operator/formalization dependency: nearly a third of Segovia’s gold flows through the CMP structure, so the program’s integrity — and the security environment underpinning it (Section 6) — is directly load-bearing for the mine’s economics.

2.4 Marmato — the bulk-mining transformation underway (Caldas, Colombia)

Marmato produced 28,741 oz in 2025 (+23% YoY, above the 20,000–25,000 oz guidance range) from its existing 1,000 tonnes-per-day flotation plant, but the asset’s real story is under construction: the Bulk Mining Zone decline is 60% complete (over 1,000 metres advanced, on schedule for Q3 2026) and the new 5,000-tpd carbon-in-pulp (CIP) plant — the centrepiece of the 2022 prefeasibility study, which outlined 3.2 Moz of proven & probable reserves, a near-20-year mine life and average production of ~162,000 oz/yr once ramped — is targeting first gold in Q4 2026, exiting the year at ~3,000 tpd and reaching full 5,000-tpd design capacity by end-2027. The $280 million project is financed by internally generated cash flow plus a precious-metals stream from Wheaton Precious Metals International Ltd., which has advanced $53 million of upfront deposits and will provide a further $122 million during construction (of which a $40 million instalment was received in Q1 2026 on hitting the 50% completion milestone, with a further $42 million due at 75% completion) in exchange for the right to purchase a portion of Marmato’s future gold at a reduced price. 2026 guidance for Marmato is 35,000–50,000 oz, back-end weighted to the CIP start-up. The key asset-level risk is execution and cost inflation on a large, sequenced construction project — the reserve and mine-life figures underpinning the asset’s value are, at nearly four years old, the most dated in the portfolio (Section 6).

2.5 Soto Norte — the high-grade pipeline flagship (Santander, Colombia)

Soto Norte is Aris’s largest single value driver on paper: a September 2025 prefeasibility study outlined 20.3 Mt of proven & probable reserves at 7.00 g/t (4.6 Moz) and 39.0 Mt of measured & indicated resources at 5.55 g/t (7.0 Moz), generating an after-tax NPV5% of US$2.7 billion, a 35% IRR and a 2.3-year payback at a base-case gold price of US$2,600/oz — rising to a US$3.3 billion NPV5% and 40% IRR at US$3,000/oz. Aris consolidated full ownership on 12 December 2025, acquiring the remaining 49% interest from MDC Industry Holding Company LLC (Mubadala) for US$80 million (US$60 million cash plus 1,739,130 Aris shares issued at US$11.50), which also terminated the precious-metals stream Mubadala previously held over the project. The PFS design deliberately builds in a formalization model: 750 tpd (over 20%) of the planned 3,500-tpd processing capacity is dedicated to local Contract Mining Partners. The project sits in the Santurbán páramo, a high-altitude wetland ecosystem where Colombia’s constitutional court has previously blocked mining (the predecessor Angostura/Eco Oro project was halted on this basis for over a decade); Aris is finalizing environmental studies for a licence application targeted for Q2 2026. The single largest asset-level risk is exactly this: the environmental licence is not yet in hand, and Santurbán carries the district’s own adverse precedent (Section 6).

2.6 Toroparu — the large-scale option in Guyana

Toroparu is Aris’s first asset outside Colombia and its earliest-stage material project: a 28 October 2025 preliminary economic assessment (effective 21 October 2025) outlined 126.9 Mt of measured & indicated resources at 1.30 g/t (5.3 Moz) plus 22.9 Mt inferred at 1.6 g/t (1.2 Moz), supporting a 7.0 Mtpa open-pit operation over a 21.3-year mine life averaging ~235,000 oz/yr, for an after-tax NPV5% of US$1.8 billion, a 25% IRR and a 3.0-year payback at US$3,000/oz gold. This is a PEA, not a reserve — it includes inferred resources that “are considered too speculative geologically” to be classified as reserves, per the Company’s own disclosure, and no mineral reserve has yet been booked at Toroparu. Aris has initiated a prefeasibility study, targeted for completion in 2026, ahead of a potential construction decision in early 2027, and has begun early pre-construction works (a bridge crossing at the Puruni river, road construction). The key asset-level risk is stage risk itself: Toroparu is the least technically advanced of the four assets, in a jurisdiction (Guyana) where Aris has no operating history, and its economics depend on resource-to-reserve conversion that has not yet occurred.

2.7 Production, reserves & costs (consolidated)

Consolidated 2025 gold production of 256,503 oz (+22% YoY) exceeded the guidance midpoint (230,000–275,000 oz). 2026 guidance of 300,000–350,000 oz implies a further ~17–36% increase, weighted to the second half as Marmato’s CIP plant comes online; the Company’s stated medium-term target is ~500,000 oz/yr once both expansions are fully ramped, with a longer-term ambition of ~1 million oz/yr if Soto Norte and Toroparu both reach production — a target the Company itself explicitly caveats as dependent on permits neither project yet holds. Portfolio-wide, P&P reserves total an estimated ~9.3 Moz and M&I resources ~21.9 Moz (Table 2) — a resource-to-reserve ratio that leaves substantial room for further conversion, though Marmato’s figures need updating to reflect four years of subsequent development. 2026 cash-cost and AISC guidance is built on a US$4,400/oz gold-price assumption and a 3,800 COP/USD exchange rate, both disclosed explicitly (generic Rule 10).

2.8 Peer positioning

Aris is scored throughout this analysis against a stated peer set of Latin America-focused intermediate gold producers in a similar growth phase: Lundin Gold (TSX: LUG), operator of the single-asset Fruta del Norte mine in Ecuador; Orla Mining (TSX: OLA), a multi-asset Mexico/Panama/Canada producer that scaled sharply via the February 2025 Musselwhite acquisition; and Equinox Gold (TSX/NYSE: EQX), a multi-country producer (Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Nicaragua) that absorbed Calibre Mining in 2025.

Table 3. Peer positioning — Latin America-focused intermediate gold producers

Source: Lundin Gold 2025 guidance ; Orla Mining Q4 2025 results ; Equinox Gold 2025 guidance ; Aris Mining per Table 1. Figures are each company’s own reporting basis — screen the live peer set on Metal Pilot.

Aris sits at the smaller end of this set by current production but is the only name whose reported grade (Segovia at 10.70 g/t reserve grade) and blended AISC profile reflect genuine narrow-vein underground mining rather than bulk open-pit or heap-leach economics — a real structural difference from Orla and much of Equinox’s portfolio. Lundin Gold is the clearest cost-position benchmark and the clear leader on that metric (sub-$1,000/oz AISC against Aris’s $1,700–1,800/oz 2026e guidance), a gap this analysis returns to directly in the scorecard (Section 9, Dimension 2). Aris’s differentiator against all three peers is the sheer scale of its fully-owned, technically-studied pipeline relative to its current production base — no peer in this set carries a combined $2.7–4.5 billion of disclosed project NPV against a ~$3.1 billion market cap.

3. Financials & balance sheet

FY2025 was a record year on every headline metric: gold revenue of $909 million (+82% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $464.4 million (+185% YoY), and adjusted net earnings of $241 million, or $1.28/share (+265% YoY from $0.35/share in 2024). The jump reflects both higher production (+22%) and a 48% increase in the average realized gold price. Statutory net income of $78.3 million ($0.42/share) trailed the adjusted figure primarily due to non-cash share-based compensation, financial-instrument revaluations and a loss on settlement of deferred revenue — the adjustments are itemized and reconciled in the Company’s own non-GAAP disclosure. Momentum continued into 2026: Q2 2026 revenue reached $330.2 million (a new quarterly record) on an average realized price of $4,450/oz, with adjusted EBITDA of $178.6 million and adjusted net earnings of $96.3 million ($0.47/share).

Table 4. Five-year financial summary

*Q4 2024 net income shown as a proxy where the FY2024 figure was not separately isolated in the sources gathered for this analysis.

Source: Aris Mining FY2025/Q4 2025 results , 11 March 2026, “Fourth quarter consolidated income statement” and “Adjusted net earnings” tables. FY2021–2023 figures are marked unavailable — this analysis was built from Aris Mining’s FY2025 and Q2 2026 results releases, which disclose FY2024–25 on a consistent basis but do not restate the pre-merger (GCM Mining/Aris Gold, merged September 2022) years on one basis; a fuller table would require the individual predecessor-company annual reports. Net debt/EBITDA is net debt divided by trailing annual adjusted EBITDA of the respective year-end.

Balance sheet and liquidity. Aris ended FY2025 with net debt of $86 million, down sharply from $241 million a year earlier, and had reduced this further to $44 million by 30 June 2026 — against $464.4 million of FY2025 adjusted EBITDA, this is a net debt/EBITDA ratio of roughly 0.1x, exceptionally low leverage for a company simultaneously funding two mine expansions. The cash balance stood at $392 million at YE2025 and $426 million at 30 June 2026. Debt outstanding is primarily the Senior Notes due 2029 (net proceeds of $441.3 million raised in 2024, which refinanced and repaid the prior Senior Notes due 2026 in full). FY2025 cash flow from operations after sustaining capital and income taxes was $322.1 million, which — after $195.6 million of growth and expansion capital (split $67.7 million Marmato non-sustaining, $16.2 million Segovia non-sustaining, $4.9 million Soto Norte, $3.1 million Toroparu in Q4 2025 alone) — still generated positive free cash flow of $126.5 million for the full year; H1 2026 free cash flow after sustaining capital and taxes was $170.1 million against $166.3 million of growth capital invested.

Hedge / treasury book. Aris Mining runs a fully unhedged gold price policy on its base production — no gold forward sales or price hedges were disclosed in the sources gathered for this analysis, meaning the Company (and its shareholders) carry full leverage to the gold price in both directions. The one price-linked financial instrument in the portfolio is the Wheaton Precious Metals stream on Marmato (Section 2.4), which is a structural financing instrument, not a price hedge — it fixes a discounted purchase price on a defined share of future Marmato gold rather than capping Aris’s exposure to spot.

Capital returns. Aris Mining pays no dividend and has not announced a buyback program. The stated capital-allocation priority through 2026–2027 is self-funding the Segovia and Marmato expansions and Soto Norte/Toroparu studies from internally generated cash flow while continuing to reduce net debt — a growth-reinvestment posture that produced 185% adjusted-EBITDA growth in 2025, but one worth naming plainly against peers that already return cash (Section 9, Dimension 6).

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

Aris Mining is led by Neil Woodyer, appointed Chair and CEO effective 22 January 2026, succeeding Ian Telfer, who retired from the board and stepped down as Chair after serving in that role since February 2021. Woodyer’s record is the most relevant credential in the sector: he founded Endeavour Financial in 1988, then in 2009 devised the growth strategy that became Endeavour Mining, which he led as CEO through a series of acquisitions and mine builds into one of West Africa’s largest gold producers; in 2016 he founded Leagold Mining, which developed gold mines in Mexico and Brazil before merging with Equinox Gold Corp. in 2020; he then led Aris Gold Corp. to its 2022 merger with GCM Mining that created Aris Mining. Doug Bowlby, promoted to President as part of the January 2026 changes, was a founding executive of Aris Gold (2021), Leagold Mining (2016) and Endeavour Mining (2009), and previously served as Managing Director, Research and Analysis at Endeavour Financial; he is a CFA charterholder. Cameron Paterson, CFO, joined from Pan American Silver, where he held executive finance roles from 2015 including Senior Vice President, Finance and Information Technology; he is a Chartered Professional Accountant. As part of the January 2026 leadership changes, the Chief Operating Officer role was eliminated and Richard Thomas departed the Company; Gary Garofalo was appointed to the newly created role of Lead Independent Director, a governance offset to the combined Chair/CEO structure Woodyer now holds. The board includes two directors with direct Colombian government experience: Mónica de Greiff, who joined in October 2022 and most recently chaired Ecopetrol S.A. and served as Colombia’s Ambassador to Kenya (2020–2024), and Gonzalo Hernández, a current director of Ecopetrol S.A. and Financiera de Desarrollo Nacional and a former Technical Vice Minister of Finance and Public Credit — both bring genuine jurisdiction expertise, and both also represent a related-government-proximity worth naming rather than glossing over. Adriaan (Attie) Roux, a metallurgical engineer with over 44 years in the industry, most recently served as COO of Equinox Gold Corp. before joining Aris Mining’s board.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The stated strategy blends current production and cash-flow generation with transformational growth, executed through organic expansion of the existing mines rather than large third-party M&A — the one material recent acquisition (Soto Norte’s remaining 49%, Section 4.3) consolidated an asset Aris already operated rather than entering a new district. Named forward targets are explicit: 2026e consolidated production of 300,000–350,000 oz; a medium-term run rate of ~500,000 oz/yr once the Segovia and Marmato expansions are fully ramped; and a longer-term objective of ~1 million oz/yr inclusive of Soto Norte and Toroparu, a target the Company itself qualifies as dependent on permits and studies not yet complete. Capital-allocation discipline is evident in the funding structure: growth capital has been funded from internally generated operating cash flow plus the non-dilutive Wheaton stream on Marmato, rather than dilutive equity issuance — the one equity issuance in the review period (1,739,130 shares for the Soto Norte buyout) was deal consideration, not a capital raise.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

Table 5. Ownership and corporate structure

Source: Aris Mining and the Government of Colombia reach long-term agreement , 19 Nov 2025; Aris Mining closes acquisition of remaining 49% of Soto Norte , Dec 2025; FY2025/Q4 2025 results for the Senior Notes refinancing and share count.

The ICSID settlement is worth reading as more than a legal footnote: it is the first agreement of its kind in Colombia to resolve an investor-state arbitration, structured entirely around performance obligations rather than a cash award — Aris explicitly elected not to pursue the legacy cash claim originally filed by Gran Colombia Gold in 2018, in exchange for formal cooperation commitments from the National Police, the Ministry of Defence and the Caldas regional environmental authority (CORPOCALDAS) around the Marmato formalization effort. It is a genuine structural de-risking of the security and informal-mining relationship that has historically shadowed Aris’s Colombian operations (Section 6), even though it resolves nothing about Soto Norte’s separate, still-open environmental-licensing question.

5. ESG & sustainability

Aris Mining’s most distinctive ESG feature is its Contract Mining Partner (CMP) program, which formalizes small-scale and informal miners working within or near Aris’s titles rather than treating them purely as a security or title-encroachment problem. At Segovia, CMPs numbered roughly 2,500 miners contributing 35% of the mine’s 2025 gold sold, and the design of the Soto Norte PFS dedicates 750 tpd (over 20%) of planned processing capacity to the same model — a structural commitment, not a one-off gesture. The November 2025 Settlement and Termination Agreement with the Government of Colombia (Section 4.3) folds this formalization work into a 10-year, government-overseen framework, with a Joint Representatives Committee tracking implementation — a level of institutional commitment beyond what most peers disclose on the informal-mining question. Against this, the Company’s own disclosure and the sources gathered for this analysis do not resolve the Santurbán/páramo environmental question at Soto Norte, where Colombia’s constitutional protections for páramo ecosystems blocked the predecessor Angostura project for over a decade (Section 6) — this is a live, unresolved, and material ESG and licensing risk rather than a settled matter, and this analysis treats it as such rather than assuming a favourable outcome. No group-level safety (TRIFR) or emissions-intensity trend with enough multi-year, dated granularity to chart was located in the sources gathered for this analysis; that gap is noted rather than papered over (Section 10.1).

6. Risks

Table 6. Risk register

Source: FY2025/Q4 2025 results ; ICSID settlement release ; Colombia sovereign rating per S&P Global Ratings, April 2026 action. Likelihood/impact are the author’s assessment.

The through-line across this register is that Aris’s near-term financial position is genuinely strong — but almost every named risk sits either in gold-price exposure the Company has chosen not to hedge, or in the single jurisdiction that hosts 100% of current production and the largest piece of the growth pipeline.

Figure 3. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 6. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant (likelihood ≥ 3.5 and impact ≥ 3.5). Ratings are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 1 August 2026. Price deck: conservative/long-term US$2,800/oz (Segovia’s own 2025 reserve-declaration price — the base case below); spot US$4,050/oz (1 Aug 2026); consensus (2027 bank average, J.P. Morgan/UBS/Goldman Sachs) US$5,400/oz. Discount rate: 6% real on the two producing mines (5% precious-metals convention + a 1% Colombia jurisdiction premium), sensitised 4–8%; Soto Norte and Toroparu are valued off their own disclosed technical-report NPVs, risk-adjusted for stage (below). Share price $15.20, 206.6 m diluted shares.

Aris is valued on the Metal Pilot valuation module’s producer archetype, with the pipeline valued sum-of-the-parts alongside the two producing mines, consistent with a company that spans the producer and developer archetypes (rule A10). The two producing mines are built as floor life-of-mine DCFs off disclosed reserves, current guidance and this analysis’s own conservative price deck; Soto Norte and Toroparu are carried at their own disclosed technical-report NPVs, scaled to this analysis’s price deck and then risk-adjusted for development stage — this analysis does not re-derive those studies’ engineering, only their price and probability-of-development inputs.

7.1 Method selection

Table 7. Valuation method selection

Source: method-to-archetype mapping per the Metal Pilot valuation framework; archetype classification stated in Section 1, peer set in Section 2.8.

7.2 Net asset value

Producing mines. For Segovia, this analysis models the disclosed 1.50 Moz P&P reserve at the 2026e production guidance midpoint of 282,000 oz/yr, implying a ~5.3-year DCF mine life — a deliberately conservative floor, since Segovia has converted resources to reserves every year since 2022 and holds a further 2.13 Moz of M&I resources beyond what is already booked as reserve. AISC is held at $1,750/oz (consistent with FY2025 actual and 2026e guidance), against the $2,800/oz conservative price, for a $1,050/oz margin, taxed at an estimated 40% all-in rate (Colombia’s ~35% corporate income tax plus mining royalties — an analysis estimate, not a disclosed effective rate). For Marmato, this analysis uses the 2022 PFS’s own disclosed mine plan — 3.2 Moz of P&P reserves at an average 162,000 oz/yr over a ~20-year life — re-priced at the $2,800/oz conservative deck rather than the study’s original $1,600/oz base case, with AISC set at $1,500/oz (calibrated so that, run at the study’s own $1,600/oz base price, this analysis’s model reproduces a NAV close to the PFS’s own disclosed $341 million base-case figure — see the assumptions box).

Development pipeline (risked). Soto Norte’s PFS NPV5% is interpolated to the $2,800/oz conservative deck using the study’s own two disclosed price points ($2.7bn @ $2,600/oz; $3.3bn @ $3,000/oz), giving ~$3.0 billion, then risk-weighted at 0.35× to reflect pre-permit status (a rate toward the low end of the developer archetype’s 0.3–0.7× pre-financing convention, given the specific Santurbán licensing overhang). Toroparu’s PEA NPV5% of $1.8bn @ $3,000/oz is scaled down modestly for the $2,800/oz deck and risk-weighted at 0.20×, reflecting its earlier PEA stage, its reliance on inferred resources, and Aris’s lack of an operating track record in Guyana.

Table 8. Sum-of-the-parts NAV build-up ($m, base case — $2,800/oz conservative deck, 6% discount rate on producing mines)

Source: this analysis, built from the per-asset technical reports and guidance cited in Section 2; Aris Mining FY2025/Q4 2025 results for net debt and share count. The 0.88x P/NAV at the base case sits squarely inside the senior-producer convention range (0.8–1.3×) — a useful sanity check on the model, though it is worth restating plainly that this NAV assumes a gold price ($2,800/oz) roughly a third below spot ($4,050/oz).

Figure 4. Sum-of-the-parts NAV build-up

Figure data: Table 8. Equity net asset value of $3,556.3m equates to $17.21 per diluted share.

Figure 5. NAV/share sensitivity — conservative-deck price × discount rate

Figure data: this analysis’ NAV model (Table 8), scaling both producing-mine margins and the risked pipeline NPVs proportionally to the conservative-deck price shock, at the stated discount rate on the two producing mines. Base case: $2,800/oz conservative deck, 6% discount rate. A ±10% move in the conservative deck shifts NAV/share by roughly ±20%, reflecting the high operating leverage of thin, reserve-based mine margins combined with a large, price-sensitive pipeline component.

At the base case, the model implies a P/NAV of 0.88× — near the middle of the senior-producer convention band, and a useful anchor precisely because it is deliberately conservative. It excludes any value for gold trading above $2,800/oz, for further Segovia reserve conversion, for a Marmato reserve update, or for successful Soto Norte permitting beyond the 0.35× haircut already applied.

7.3 Relative valuation

At $15.20 and 206.6 million diluted shares, Aris’s market capitalisation is ~$3.14 billion and enterprise value ~$3.18 billion.

Table 9. Relative valuation vs. the peer set (Section 2.8)

Source: this analysis, from Table 4 and Q2 2026 results . Peer-specific EV/EBITDA and P/CF were not consistently available on a comparable basis at the depth Aris discloses and are marked accordingly rather than estimated (generic Rule 4) — screen live peer multiples on Metal Pilot.

On a trailing FY2025 basis, Aris trades at 6.9× EV/EBITDA and 8.4× P/CF — squarely mid-range on the first metric and at the upper edge of the producer convention on the second, which is not unreasonable given the growth premium a doubling production profile arguably deserves. On an annualized Q2 2026 run-rate basis — which captures the much higher realized gold price rather than FY2025’s blended average — the multiple compresses to 4.5× EV/EBITDA, near the cheap end of the sector range; the gap between the two readings is itself the finding: the market has not yet re-rated Aris’s multiple to reflect the cash-flow step-change that a $4,000+/oz gold price has already delivered, whether because the move is assumed transient or because the multiple simply lags the news.

Consensus anchor. Eleven analysts cover Aris Mining with an average “Buy” rating and a consensus 12-month target of $29.16, implying +92% upside from the $15.20 reference price. This is an unusually wide gap even by the standards of this series, and it should be read alongside the wide dispersion across individual analyst targets found in the sources gathered for this analysis (roughly $26–37) — a sign that Street models, like this analysis’s own scenario range below, are highly sensitive to which gold price each analyst is running.

7.4 Scenario analysis

Because both the producing-mine margins and the pipeline’s risk-weighting are gold-price-sensitive, price and permitting progress are the two swing variables across all three scenarios.

Table 10. Scenario valuation (illustrative, not forecasts)

Source: this analysis; illustrative scenarios, not forecasts. NAV/share from the sensitivity model underlying Figure 5, extended to the risk-weight and discount-rate assumptions stated above.

7.5 Valuation conclusion

Triangulating the sum-of-the-parts NAV ($17.21/share base case, implying a 0.88× P/NAV that lands squarely in the senior-producer convention band), the relative multiples (6.9× EV/EBITDA and 8.4× P/CF on a trailing FY2025 basis — mid-range to slightly rich — against 4.5× EV/EBITDA on the current run rate — cheap), and the analyst consensus ($29.16 target, “Buy,” +92% upside) gives a value read of Modestly undervalued, anchored on the conservative-deck NAV rather than the far larger spot-deck or consensus-deck readings, which this analysis treats as a bull case rather than the base case precisely because they assume gold holds near an all-time high. The single factor most likely to move this verdict in either direction over the next 12 months is not company execution but the gold price itself: the scenario table above shows a swing from modestly overvalued to significantly undervalued entirely within a plausible price range, which is the honest headline of this valuation section.

Assumptions box: valuation date 1 August 2026. Price decks: US$2,240–3,360/oz (sensitivity range around the $2,800/oz conservative base); spot US$4,050/oz (1 Aug 2026); consensus US$5,400/oz (2027 bank average, J.P. Morgan/UBS/Goldman Sachs). Discount rate: 6% real on Segovia and Marmato (5% precious-metals convention + 1% Colombia premium), sensitised 4–8%. Soto Norte and Toroparu valued off their own disclosed PFS/PEA NPV5% figures, scaled linearly to the price deck using each study’s own disclosed sensitivity, then risk-weighted 0.35× and 0.20× respectively for development stage (base case). Share basis: 206.6m diluted (Q4 2025 weighted average). Net debt at 30 June 2026 ($44.0m). Marmato’s AISC assumption ($1,500/oz) was calibrated so that, run at the 2022 PFS’s own $1,600/oz base-case gold price, this analysis’s model reproduces a NAV close to that study’s disclosed $341m base case — a consistency check, not a company-guided figure. Colombia effective tax+royalty rate assumed at 40% (an analysis estimate combining Colombia’s ~35% corporate income tax and mining royalties, not a disclosed effective rate).

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 11. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Source: Q4/FY2025 results ; Q2 2026 results ; technical reports cited in Section 2. Timing reflects Company guidance and is not guaranteed.

9. Rating & verdict

Aris is scored on the Metal Pilot Company Scorecard — the same nine dimensions, on the same ★1–5 scale, used for every producer in this series, scored against the peer set declared in Section 2.8 (Lundin Gold, Orla Mining, Equinox Gold).

Aris is scored on the producer/operator archetype weighting (playbook Table 2), the reference case: dimensions 1 Asset quality, 2 Cost, 3 Reserves/life, 5 Balance sheet and 6 Capital allocation are dominant (15% each); the remaining four — 4 Growth & optionality, 7 Management, 8 Jurisdiction, 9 ESG — carry base weight (6.25% each). No dimension is N/A for this archetype.

Table 12. The Aris Mining scorecard

Weighted average = (0.75 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.45 + 0.3125 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.125) = 3.94/5 → rounds to the published ★★★★, Solid.

Source: the Metal Pilot Company Scorecard; evidence in Sections 2–8. Peer basis: the Section 2.8 Latin America-focused intermediate producer set.

The two-axis verdict. Quality Solid (★★★★) × Value Modestly undervalued → a re-rating candidate, with the widest scenario spread this series has produced. The quality axis is durable — it tracks the balance sheet, the reserve base and the pipeline, not the share price — and it is genuinely strong on growth, balance sheet, reserves and asset quality, held back mainly by an average cost position relative to Lundin Gold specifically, and by the single-country jurisdiction concentration that shadows every dimension of this analysis. The value axis is where this name diverges from the rest of the series: the base-case NAV (built on a deliberately conservative $2,800/oz deck) already implies modest undervaluation, but the same model run at spot gold implies the shares are worth more than double their current price — a spread this wide is itself the finding, not a modeling imprecision. The thing that tips the verdict from modestly to significantly undervalued is not company execution alone but whether gold holds near its current level and whether Soto Norte clears Colombia’s environmental licensing process without repeating the Santurbán district’s adverse precedent. This is an analytical read, not a recommendation.

To go from this single-name view to the whole peer group — screening every listed gold producer on AISC, reserve life, net debt/EBITDA and P/NAV — explore Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company fundamentals, financials, guidance and corporate-structure facts are from Aris Mining Corporation’s Annual Information Form for the year ended 31 December 2025 (dated 11 March 2026) and its audited financial statements, together with Aris Mining Reports Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results (11 March 2026) and Aris Mining Reports Q2 2026 Results (7 July / 4 Aug 2026). Per-asset reserve and resource data are from Aris Mining expands high-grade Segovia reserve and resource estimates (8 Jan 2026, effective 28 Nov 2025); Aris Mining announces updated Marmato expansion PFS (Nov 2022, effective 30 Jun 2022 — the last Marmato reserve update located for this analysis); Soto Norte PFS results (Sept 2025); and Toroparu PEA results (28 Oct 2025). Executive and director biographies are from Management and board-update detail from Aris Mining Announces Board and Management Updates , both current as of the analysis date. The ICSID settlement is from Aris Mining and the Government of Colombia reach long-term agreement (19 Nov 2025). Market data (share price $15.20, 206.6m diluted shares, market cap ~$3.14bn) and the 11-analyst consensus target ($29.16, “Buy”) are as of 25 July 2026 from stockanalysis.com . Peer figures (Lundin Gold, Orla Mining, Equinox Gold) are drawn from each company’s own most recent guidance, cited in Section 2.8. Colombia’s sovereign credit rating (downgraded to BB- by S&P, April 2026) is cited for the jurisdiction dimension. Gold spot ($4,050/oz, 1 Aug 2026) and the 2027 bank-consensus deck ($5,400/oz average of J.P. Morgan, UBS and Goldman Sachs targets) were sourced via general market data at the analysis date. FY2021–2023 financial figures are not shown in the five-year summary (Table 4) because the results releases used for this analysis disclose FY2024–25 on a consistent basis but do not restate the pre-2022-merger predecessor entities on one basis. One figure is intentionally omitted from this draft: an asset map (this post type generates no SVG, and the four-asset, two-country footprint does not reduce to a component the library supports at this scale) — the Section 2.1 portfolio table and concentration paragraph carry this read instead. A group multi-year production-history chart was also considered and omitted: only two consecutive years (2024, 2025) of production on a consistent post-merger basis were located in the sources gathered for this analysis, too short a series for the standard component, so the trend is instead stated in prose (Section 2.7) rather than charted with insufficient history. The sum-of-the-parts valuation (Section 7) blends a floor DCF on the two producing mines with risk-weighted technical-report NPVs on the two development assets — see the limitations and calibration notes discussed in that section. Data as of 1 August 2026; refreshed on each annual report and on material events. Provenance: Aris Mining Corporation — Annual Information Form — 2025.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed advisor. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 1 August 2026 — share prices, multiples, analyst targets and the gold price move, and figures are estimates as of the stated date. The two-axis verdict is an analytical read of quality and price, not a personal buy or sell instruction, and the unusually wide scenario spread in Section 7 is itself part of that read, not a modeling defect. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from Aris Mining’s filings and market data and reviewed, but readers should verify before acting. The author holds no position in Aris Mining Corporation as of the date of writing.