Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.8]

Analysis as of 4 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from Aya’s 2025 Annual Information Form and full-year results (year ended 31 December 2025, released 31 March 2026), the 2025 reserves & resources update, the Boumadine Preliminary Economic Assessment (effective 4 November 2025, filed 18 December 2025), and Q1 2026 results. Market data is as of the NASDAQ close on 4 August 2026; Q2 2026 financials are due 13 August 2026. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Modestly overvalued → the market already sees it: a high-quality growth story priced for a strong silver deck and a successful Boumadine build. Price deck: spot silver ~US$48/oz, base case US$40/oz, conservative long-term US$30/oz; Boumadine gold base US$3,400/oz; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention, with Boumadine additionally risked. All figures are US dollars (Aya’s reporting currency) unless marked C$. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Aya Gold & Silver is the only TSX-listed pure-play silver producer, and in 2025 it tripled production and grew revenue five-fold as the expanded Zgounder mine in Morocco reached steady state — while, alongside it, the Boumadine discovery matured into a Preliminary Economic Assessment worth US$1.5 billion on a base deck and US$3.0 billion at spot. The thesis in one line: a genuinely high-quality, high-growth silver story whose shares, up 174% in a year, already discount a strong silver price and a flawless Boumadine build. Why look now: with Zgounder at steady state and the Boumadine PEA on the table, the growth is no longer a promise — but the ~21× EBITDA and ~1.7× price-to-net-asset-value the market is paying leave little margin of safety. To screen Aya against every listed silver producer on grade, cost, reserves and stage, go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (TSX: AYA; NASDAQ: AYA) is a Canada-based, Morocco-focused silver producer headquartered in Montreal with about 810 employees, one operating mine — the high-grade Zgounder silver mine — and one district-scale development project, the Boumadine polymetallic (silver-gold-zinc-lead) project, plus an exploration portfolio along the Anti-Atlas fault. By archetype it is a producer/operator with a large, high-value development pipeline, so the full nine-dimension rubric applies (Section 9) and the valuation runs sum-of-the-parts (Section 7). (AgEq = silver-equivalent, combining silver, gold and base-metal by-products at assumed prices; AuEq = gold-equivalent; Moz = million ounces; koz = thousand ounces; AISC = all-in sustaining cost; PEA = Preliminary Economic Assessment; g/t = grams per tonne.)

Figure 1. Aya Gold & Silver in numbers

Figure data: Aya full-year 2025 results , 31 March 2026 (production, cost, guidance); the Boumadine PEA (NPV); reserves per the 2025 reserves & resources update; market data per stockanalysis.com as of the NASDAQ close on 4 August 2026. Rating per Section 9, valuation read per Section 7.

Table 1. Aya Gold & Silver in numbers

Source: Aya full-year 2025 results , 31 March 2026, for production, cost and realised price; the Boumadine PEA for the NPV; reserves and resources per the 2025 reserves & resources update, prepared under NI 43-101 and CIM definitions; market data, share count, moving average and consensus per stockanalysis.com , 4 Aug 2026 (US-set consensus $24.07; Canadian-set targets run to ~C$36). Reserves estimated at a $26/oz silver price; Zgounder resources at $28/oz. Mineral resources are not mineral reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. Aya reports in US dollars; the shares trade in C$ on the TSX and US$ on the NASDAQ. Listed: Public (TSX: AYA / NASDAQ: AYA).

Thesis in brief. Bull: a rare pure-play silver producer that just delivered a record year (revenue up 417% to $202 million, net income $46 million), with a 12-year-life, high-grade mine now generating free cash flow — and behind it a genuine company-maker in Boumadine, whose PEA shows a $1.5 billion base-case NPV (47% IRR) on only $446 million of initial capital, rising to $3.0 billion at spot metals. Bear: one producing mine in one emerging-market country, 2025 cash costs ($20.25/oz) that ran well above guidance, no dividend and an 11% annual share-count increase — and, above all, a valuation (~21× EBITDA, ~1.7× net asset value) that already capitalises spot-or-higher silver and a de-risked Boumadine. What tips it: the silver price, and whether Boumadine reaches a positive feasibility study on schedule. The full rating and its rationale are in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

Aya is a leveraged play on silver, which in 2026 has been one of the strongest metals in the complex — the company realised an average of $41.61/oz across 2025 and $58.39/oz in the fourth quarter, more than double a year earlier. For how silver is priced, why it out-runs gold in bull markets and why silver miners are a geared expression of the metal, see the Silver — A Complete Market Guide . This section spends its words on the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview & map

Two assets carry essentially all of the value: one producing mine and one development project, both in Morocco.

Table 2. Asset base

Source: 2025 full-year results and 2025 reserves & resources update (Zgounder), and the Boumadine PEA , effective 4 November 2025, under NI 43-101. Zgounder reserves at $26/oz silver; the Boumadine PEA is preliminary and includes inferred resources too speculative to be categorised as reserves. Boumadine cost and grade figures are study estimates, not achieved results. The Zgounder economic split reflects Morocco’s state minerals agency ONHYM’s legacy interest; production and reserves are reported on a 100% basis. Listed: Public (TSX: AYA / NASDAQ: AYA).

The concentration read is the whole story. Almost all of Aya’s revenue comes from one mine (Zgounder) in one country (Morocco), and a large share of its market value comes from one pre-production project (Boumadine) in the same country. That is single-asset, single-jurisdiction risk on both the cash-flow and the value axes at once — a genuine concern that the quality rating reflects. A proportional-symbol asset map would show two dots a few hundred kilometres apart in southern Morocco; this post type does not draw one (see Section 10.1), and the table and this paragraph carry the read.

2.2 Where the revenue and the value sit

Aya produces essentially one metal from one mine, so the revenue split is not the interesting question — the value split is. Two figures make the point: today’s cash comes from Zgounder; tomorrow’s value is mostly Boumadine.

By metal, the split is trivial: FY2025 revenue was ~99% silver (reported as silver-equivalent, with minor gold and base-metal credits), so a by-metal figure would be a single bar and is stated here rather than drawn (noted in Section 10.1). Boumadine, when built, would change that — its output is roughly half gold and half silver plus zinc and lead — but that is future production, not current revenue.

Figure 2. Revenue by asset, FY2025

Figure data: segment revenue per stockanalysis.com drawing on Aya’s 2025 financial statements. Boumadine’s $2.2 m is from a pyrite-reclaim operation, not the future mine.

Figure 3. Net asset value by asset (base case)

Figure data: the Section 7 net-asset-value build (Table 9, base case). Shares are of gross asset value before net cash and corporate items. The Boumadine risk factor (0.55×) and the exploration credit are the author’s estimates, not disclosed figures.

The two figures together state the paradox that defines the stock. Zgounder is 99% of the revenue and about a third of the value; Boumadine is 0% of the revenue and about half the value. An investor in Aya is buying a producing mine for its cash flow and a pre-production project for its option value — and paying, today, as though both were fully de-risked.

2.3 Zgounder — the producing mine

Zgounder, in Morocco’s Sirwa region, is one of the highest-grade primary silver mines in the world — its reserve grades 145 g/t silver and its resource 165 g/t. It is an open-pit and underground operation whose 2024 plant expansion lifted throughput from roughly 700 to ~2,700 tonnes per day, and 2025 was the year that expansion paid off: production tripled to 4.83 Moz of silver (5.0 Moz AgEq including a small Boumadine pyrite-reclaim contribution), and revenue rose 417%.

The honest caveat is cost. 2025 cash costs of $20.25/oz AgEq ran well above the $15.00–$17.50 guidance, because the ramp blended lower-grade open-pit, underground and stockpiled ore (processed grade of 145 g/t was below the 170–200 g/t guided) while the plant bedded in — though metallurgical recovery of 88.4% for the year (91.8% in the second half) finished above the guided range. Management’s updated mine plan targets 6 Moz a year for 11 years at a cash cost of $16.26/oz and an AISC of about $19/oz, with the mine life now extended to 2036 and 73 Moz of reserves behind it. The asset-level risk is that the low-cost plan depends on grade and recovery holding at the improved second-half levels rather than the full-year average.

2.4 Boumadine — the company-maker in waiting

Boumadine, on the prospective Anti-Atlas fault, is the reason the market values Aya at ~21× current EBITDA. It is a district-scale polymetallic (silver-gold-zinc-lead) development project, and the PEA filed in December 2025 (effective 4 November 2025) put numbers on it for the first time.

Table 3. Boumadine PEA — headline economics

Source: Aya Boumadine PEA , effective 4 November 2025, prepared by Lycopodium and WSP under NI 43-101. The PEA is preliminary, includes inferred resources, and is not a reserve or a production forecast — there is no certainty it will be realised. Spot prices as of 31 October 2025. AuEq/AgEq conversions per the PEA’s assumed prices; the project has an existing mining licence, with a feasibility study targeted for late 2027.

Two things make Boumadine unusually attractive: the grade (443 g/t AgEq in the first five years, exceptional for an open-pit-and-underground polymetallic) and the capital efficiency (a 3.3-to-1 NPV-to-capex ratio on the base deck, 6.6-to-1 at spot). Two things temper it: it is a PEA on partly-inferred resources, so the numbers carry real risk until the late-2027 feasibility study; and the $446 million initial capital is a meaningful sum for a company this size, even if it is only ~14% of the current market value and Zgounder now funds part of it from cash flow. The asset-level risk is the classic developer’s: permitting, financing and metallurgical confirmation between here and a build decision.

2.5 Group profile & the ramp

Figure 4. Revenue by fiscal year, 2021–2025

Figure data: Table 4. Revenue was flat near $35–43 m for four years on the old ~2 Moz/yr Zgounder operation, then rose five-fold in 2025 as the expanded plant ramped and silver re-rated. Silver production over the same period: ~1.9 Moz (2022), 2.0 Moz (2023), 5.0 Moz AgEq (2025) — per Aya’s annual results releases.

At the group level, Aya produced roughly 2 Moz of silver a year through 2021–2023, dipped slightly in 2024 as the old plant wound down for the expansion tie-in, then tripled to 5.0 Moz AgEq in 2025 and guides to 5.8 Moz in 2026 on the way to a 6 Moz/yr steady state. Group reserves are 73 Moz of silver at Zgounder (about a 12-year life) — and that is before any reserve at Boumadine, whose PEA-stage resource, if converted, would roughly double the group’s economic silver-equivalent inventory. This is one of the strongest production-growth profiles in the silver sector; it is also, at present, entirely dependent on a single mine plus a single study.

2.6 Peer positioning

The peer set used throughout this analysis — for every scorecard star in Section 9 and the relative valuation in Section 7 — is five listed primary-silver producers and developers of intermediate scale, the names Aya competes with for silver-focused capital.

Table 4. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: peer scale, cost and jurisdiction from each company’s most recent guidance and results; figures are indicative and AgEq/AISC definitions differ between issuers, so the comparison is directional. Aya per its 2025 results . Screen the full silver peer set on grade, cost, reserves and stage at Metal Pilot.

Aya sits at the smaller-scale, higher-current-cost, higher-grade, higher-growth corner of that set. It is smaller than First Majestic, comparable in output to MAG and Endeavour, and — uniquely — a pure silver play with a company-scale development project in a jurisdiction none of the peers operates in. Its distinguishing features are the exceptional grade at both assets and the Boumadine optionality; its distinguishing weaknesses are the single-asset, single-country concentration and a cost base that is still above the peer median while Zgounder optimises. Those are the strengths and weaknesses the scorecard quantifies.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 5. Five-year financial summary (US$m unless stated, years ended 31 December)

Source: Aya’s audited annual statements as compiled by stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai / S&P Global Market Intelligence). 2025 net income of $46 m includes a gain and impairment recovery related to the x2 Mining transaction. The 2023–2024 capital expenditure funded the Zgounder plant expansion, which is why free cash flow was deeply negative and net debt built before swinging back to net cash in 2025. Trailing-twelve-months to 31 March 2026: revenue $285.6 m, net income $87.0 m, EBITDA $154.4 m, operating cash flow $134.2 m. Aya pays no dividend. Per-share figures are diluted.

The five-year record is a company that spent 2022–2024 investing heavily (and running free cash flow to roughly −$170 million cumulatively) to build the expansion, then harvested it in 2025: revenue up 417% to $202 million, net income of $46 million, and free cash flow of $39 million — the first meaningful positive year. On a trailing-twelve-month basis to March 2026 the momentum has continued (revenue $286 million, EBITDA $154 million) as silver prices climbed.

Balance sheet and liquidity. At 31 March 2026 Aya held $172 million of cash against $100 million of debt, for net cash of ~$72 million. That is a comfortable position for a producer — but the $446 million Boumadine build sits ahead of it. With Zgounder now generating operating cash flow, existing cash, and debt capacity, the funding gap does not require a dilutive equity raise on the scale that would force a valuation adjustment (it is ~14% of market value), but financing Boumadine without meaningful dilution is an assumption, not a certainty, and Aya’s share count has already grown ~11% in the past year.

Hedging. Aya is unhedged on silver — it takes the spot price, which is why 2025 revenue and margins expanded so sharply and why the downside is unbuffered. There is no material hedge book to disclose.

Capital returns. Aya pays no dividend and does not buy back stock — the opposite of a mature producer’s policy, and the right one for a company reinvesting into a 3× production ramp and a company-making development project. Every dollar is going into growth; the return, so far, has come through the share price (up 174% in a year) rather than through cash.

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

Benoit La Salle, FCPA, MBA, is Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer — and the single most important reason to take Aya’s growth ambitions seriously. He founded and led SEMAFO, the West African gold producer, building it into a multi-mine major before its 2020 sale to Endeavour Mining; he is one of the more accomplished mine-builders among Canadian junior-to-mid executives. The technical leadership is credentialed: Raphael Beaudoin, P.Eng, is Vice-President, Operations, and David Lalonde, P.Geo, is Vice-President, Exploration — both qualified persons on Aya’s technical disclosures — with Alex Ball leading Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Aya held its annual general meeting on 12 June 2026 with all board nominees elected; the full board-committee roster and the Chief Financial Officer are set out in the management information circular (a naming gap noted in Section 10.1 rather than filled from an unverified source).

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The stated strategy is growth: optimise Zgounder to a 6 Moz/yr, sub-$20/oz-AISC steady state; advance Boumadine from PEA through a late-2027 feasibility study toward a build; and keep exploring the Anti-Atlas district, several of whose targets host past-producing mines. Capital allocation is 100% reinvestment — no dividend, no buyback — funded by Zgounder’s cash flow, the balance sheet, and, where needed, the equity and debt markets. The record supports the ambition: the expansion was delivered and is now generating cash, and the Boumadine discovery has been grown into a $1.5 billion PEA in a few years. The counter-evidence is the cost overrun on the 2025 ramp and the steady dilution. Named forward targets are specific: Zgounder 6 Moz/yr to 2036, Boumadine feasibility study late 2027.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

Table 6. Capital structure and corporate events

Source: stockanalysis.com , 4 Aug 2026, for share count, ownership and debt; the GDX addition and NASDAQ listing per Aya releases. There are no disclosed cornerstone shareholders, no material warrant overhang and no convertible notes; Aya owns 100% of Boumadine and operates Zgounder. The ~11% annual share-count growth reflects equity funding of the expansion and exploration.

The structure is straightforward — one class of shares, no complex warrant or convertible overhang — but two features stand out. The NASDAQ listing and GDX inclusion in mid-2026 broadened the shareholder base and added passive buying, part of why the shares have run so hard. And the ~11% annual dilution is the price of an all-reinvestment strategy: existing holders are funding the growth, and the Boumadine build will likely require more.

5. ESG & sustainability

Table 7. ESG snapshot

Source: Aya corporate disclosures and the Boumadine PEA (which includes an ESIA lead among its qualified persons). Quantified safety-frequency rates, water-intensity and emissions targets are not reproduced from a primary source here — a disclosure gap noted in Section 10.1, and the reason Dimension 9 is scored around the peer median.

Aya’s ESG profile is adequate but thinly quantified in the sources used here. The real, structural issues are honest ones: mining in an arid region makes water a genuine operational and social risk; artisanal-mining activity around historical workings is flagged in the company’s own risk factors; and being a single-jurisdiction operator means the entire business depends on maintaining its social and political licence in one country. Morocco is comparatively stable and mining-friendly, but the concentration is real. This section is short because the granular metrics were not verified against a primary source for this snapshot, and the dimension is scored accordingly.

6. Risks

Table 8. Risk register

Source: risk categories drawn from Aya’s 2025 Annual Information Form risk factors and the operational disclosures in the 2025 results . Likelihood and impact ratings are the author’s assessment on a 1–5 scale, not disclosed figures.

Figure 5. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 8. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant. Ratings are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.

The register makes the investment case’s shape explicit. The two highest-scoring risks — a rich valuation de-rating and the silver price — are market risks rather than operational failures, and single-asset concentration sits just behind them as a very-high-impact but lower-likelihood condition. Aya is a well-run company; the risk is what you pay for it and what silver does next. That is precisely what the valuation in Section 7 is built to price.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 4 August 2026, in US dollars. Horizon: spot fair value. Deck: spot silver ~$48/oz, base case $40/oz, conservative long-term $30/oz; Boumadine gold base $3,400/oz. Discount rate 5% real, post-tax; Boumadine additionally risked at 0.55× in the base case. Share price $22.90, 143.4 m shares outstanding, ~148 m fully diluted.

Aya is a producer with a large development project, so it is valued sum-of-the-parts: a life-of-mine discounted cash flow on Zgounder, a risked value for the Boumadine PEA, and an in-situ credit for exploration, bridged to equity. The conclusion: a base-case net asset value of ~$12.9 per share and a blended base-case fair value of ~$18.4, against a $22.90 share price — a P/NAV of ~1.7× — for a value read of Modestly overvalued, with a scenario range from ~$7 (bear) to ~$27 (bull). At spot metals the sum of the parts rises to roughly the current price; below spot it does not.

7.1 Method selection

Table 9a. Valuation method selection

Source: method-to-archetype mapping per the Metal Pilot valuation framework; the archetype is stated in Section 1 and the peer set in Section 2.6. EV/EBITDA on current EBITDA badly understates Aya because roughly half the value (Boumadine) generates no EBITDA yet, so the intrinsic SOTP carries the largest weight (55%, within the single-method cap). Typical P/NAV bands are conventions from sell-side mining primers.

7.2 Net asset value

Zgounder is modelled at the 6 Moz/yr, ~$19/oz-AISC mine plan over ~11 years at the base $40/oz silver deck, taxed at a ~30% effective Moroccan rate and discounted at 5% real: about $650 million. Boumadine takes the PEA’s post-tax NPV — interpolated to ~$2.0 billion at the base $40/oz silver, $3,400/oz gold deck — and risks it at 0.55× for its PEA stage, permitting and financing, for about $1.0 billion. Exploration and district resources outside those two carry a risked in-situ credit of ~$300 million.

Table 9b. Net asset value build-up, base case (US$m)

Source: author’s model. Zgounder mine-plan inputs per the 2025 results ; Boumadine NPV per the PEA ; balance sheet per Q1 2026. The Boumadine risk factor (0.55×), the exploration credit, the corporate charge and the fully diluted share count are the author’s estimates. Boumadine’s $446 m capital is inside the PEA NPV; the funding gap (~14% of market value) is not modelled as forced dilution (rule V25 threshold not triggered). This is a model output, not a disclosed figure.

Figure 6. Net asset value build-up

Figure data: Table 9b. Equity net asset value of $1,902 m equates to ~$12.9 per fully diluted share, a 1.7× P/NAV against the $22.90 price.

Figure 7. NAV per share sensitivity — silver price × discount rate

Figure data: this analysis’ net-asset-value model, Table 9b. Base case: $40/oz silver, 5% real post-tax, Boumadine risked 0.55×. NAV per share is extremely silver-sensitive — a ±$5/oz move (±12.5%) shifts it by roughly ±24% — and even at $50/oz silver the base-discount-rate NAV ($19.5) sits below the $22.90 share price: the market is capitalising above-spot silver with Boumadine largely de-risked.

7.3 Relative valuation and cross-checks

Table 10. Relative valuation cross-checks

Source: multiples per stockanalysis.com , 4 Aug 2026; the market-implied silver price and P/NAV are the author’s calculations from Section 7.2. Typical multiple ranges are conventions from sell-side mining primers, not current peer observations.

Every relative measure says the same thing: Aya is expensive on current fundamentals. A ~21× EBITDA multiple, a ~1.7× P/NAV and a ~1.6% free-cash-flow yield are not the marks of a cheap stock — they are the marks of one the market has already decided is a winner. The market-implied read (V19) is the sharpest way to say it: solving the model back to the current price requires roughly $50/oz silver in perpetuity — above the current spot — with Boumadine treated as essentially de-risked. That is not impossible (silver has been in a powerful bull market), but it is the opposite of a margin of safety.

7.4 Scenario analysis & conclusion

Table 11. Scenario valuation (blended fair value per share)

Source: author’s model, per Table 9b’s method with the deck and risk changes stated. Each weighted method is recomputed in each scenario; the peer-P/NAV method applies a silver-growth multiple (1.4–1.5× base) to the scenario’s NAV. These are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts. The bear case is the one Section 6’s register describes — silver mean-reverting toward its through-cycle range while the multiple de-rates.

The blended range is ~$7 (bear) to ~$27 (bull), with a base case of ~$18.4 against a $22.90 price — an implied −20%, the definition of Modestly overvalued. The price sits between the base and bull scenarios, nearer the bull, which is precisely the finding: the market is underwriting close to the spot-silver, low-risk-Boumadine world. If silver holds near $48 and Boumadine de-risks, the shares are roughly fairly valued; on any normalised silver deck they are expensive, and the downside if silver reverts is severe because both the operating margin and the Boumadine NPV are highly geared. Analyst consensus (~$24–28) sits between the base and bull cases, at or modestly above the price — the street, too, is underwriting a strong silver deck rather than finding hidden value.

Assumptions box. Valuation date 4 August 2026, in US dollars; balance sheet as of 31 March 2026; horizon spot fair value. Deck: spot $48/oz, base $40/oz, conservative $30/oz silver; Boumadine gold base $3,400/oz; real, after-tax basis. Discount rate 5% real post-tax, sensitised at 4% and 7%; Boumadine additionally risked (0.55× base). Share basis ~148 m fully diluted. Moroccan effective tax ~30%. Zgounder modelled on the 6 Moz/yr mine plan; Boumadine on the PEA NPV interpolated to the base deck and risked. No hedge book. Method weights 55/25/20 (SOTP intrinsic within the single-method cap; the two relative reads under the family cap). Primary yardstick: P/NAV. NAV provenance: author-built on the 2025 reserves and the Boumadine PEA. Consensus and market-implied silver price are 0% cross-checks.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 12. Near-term catalysts

Source: 2025 results and the Boumadine PEA . All timing is company guidance, not a guarantee.

The catalyst path is genuinely rich for a company this size, but note what it does not contain: a near-term event that makes the current valuation cheap. The Zgounder cost improvement is largely priced, the Boumadine feasibility study is more than a year away, and the dominant variable is the silver price — which the market has already extrapolated. The catalysts are reasons to own the business over time; they are not reasons the shares are undervalued today. (As a producer, Aya carries no takeover-optionality subsection — though its combination of a high-grade mine and a company-scale development project would make it a logical consolidation target for a larger silver producer, that read is speculative and not one a reader can act on.)

9. Rating & verdict

Aya is scored on the same nine dimensions every Metal Pilot company analysis uses, against the peer set declared in Section 2.6. As a producer/operator it takes the reference weighting: asset quality, cost, reserves and life, balance sheet and capital allocation carry 15% each; growth, management, jurisdiction and ESG carry 6.25% each. No dimension is marked not-applicable.

Table 13. Scorecard rationale

Source: each row cites its evidence in this analysis; peer references are the set declared in Section 2.6; metric fields map onto the Metal Pilot Company Scorecard.

Weighted average: 0.60 + 0.45 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.3125 + 0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.1875 = 3.79/5 (3.8 to one decimal) → ★★★★, Solid.

The two-axis verdict. Composite quality ★★★★ (Solid); value read Modestly overvalued as of 4 August 2026; verdict: Full — the market already sees it. Aya is a genuinely high-quality, high-growth silver producer with a rare company-making development project — and its shares, up 174% in a year, already price a strong silver deck and a de-risked Boumadine. It is a great company at a rich price.

The bull case is quality plus a calendar: a high-grade mine at steady state generating cash, a $1.5 billion PEA that de-risks toward a feasibility study in late 2027, exploration upside across a prospective district, and a proven builder running it — and at spot silver the sum of the parts is roughly the current price. The bear case is arithmetic and concentration: ~21× EBITDA and ~1.7× net asset value on a single mine in a single country, funded by dilution, with a valuation that needs above-spot silver to work and severe downside if silver reverts toward its through-cycle range.

The specific thing that tips it is the silver price. If silver holds near current levels while Boumadine de-risks, the valuation grows into itself and the “modestly overvalued” read closes. If silver mean-reverts, both the operating margin and the Boumadine NPV compress at once, and a 1.7× P/NAV becomes a much larger problem than it looks today. The quality is not in question; the price is.

To rank Aya against every listed silver producer on the same nine dimensions — grade, AISC, reserves, growth stage and P/NAV — screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. Aya’s 2025 Annual Information Form and full-year 2025 results (31 March 2026) — the spine of this analysis — for production, cost, realised price, financials and the Zgounder mine plan; the 2025 reserves & resources update for Zgounder reserves (73 Moz Ag) and resources; and the Boumadine PEA (effective 4 November 2025, filed 18 December 2025) for the development-project economics. The GDX addition and NASDAQ listing per Aya releases.

Exchange and market data. stockanalysis.com for the NASDAQ share price, market capitalisation, share count, enterprise value, multiples, moving averages and consensus, all as of the NASDAQ close on 4 August 2026; the financials overview for the five-year statements and segment revenue.

Silver price. Spot silver of ~US$48/oz and Aya’s realised prices per the 2025 results; long-run context in the Silver — A Complete Market Guide and the macro regime guide .

Methodology. Durable structure (reserves, grade, mine life, ownership, jurisdiction) is kept separate from the dated market layer (share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value, multiples, valuation) throughout. The data-as-of date is 4 August 2026; market data is as of the NASDAQ close on 4 August 2026; reserves are from the 2025 update (Zgounder resources effective 30 June 2025); the balance sheet is as of 31 March 2026; the Boumadine PEA is effective 4 November 2025. Aya reports on a calendar fiscal year in US dollars under IFRS and reports M&I resources inclusive of reserves. Scorecard weights follow the producer/operator reference case, sum to 100%, and no dimension is not-applicable. The valuation is a sum-of-the-parts build reproducible from Table 9b and the assumptions box; the Boumadine risk factor, the exploration credit, the corporate charge and the fully diluted share count are author estimates, not company figures. Two figures are deliberately omitted (rule A13): a proportional-symbol asset map is drawn geometry the component library does not express, so the Section 2.1 table and the concentration paragraph carry that read; and the revenue-by-metal split collapses to a single metal (silver 99%), so it is stated in prose rather than drawn. Disclosure gaps noted rather than filled: the Chief Financial Officer and the full board-committee roster were not verified against a primary source for this snapshot; the exact Zgounder ownership split (Aya’s attributable interest versus the ONHYM state minority) was not confirmed, and the valuation treats Zgounder on Aya’s attributable economics; and quantified safety, water and emissions metrics are not reproduced here — Dimensions 8 and 9 (and the management detail) are scored accordingly. A FY2025 AISC per ounce is not headlined in the results release, which leads on cash cost ($20.25/oz AgEq) during the ramp; the AISC figures cited are the Zgounder mine-plan ($19/oz) and Boumadine PEA ($1,021/oz AuEq) estimates. Update cadence: refreshed on each annual report and on material events — the next checkpoint is the Q2 2026 results on 13 August 2026, and the next scheduled refresh is the 2026 Annual Information Form in Q1 2027.

Provenance: Aya Gold & Silver Inc. — Annual Information Form, Full-Year Results and Boumadine PEA — 2025.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 4 August 2026: the share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value, multiples and valuation read all move. Reserve, resource, study and forecast figures — including the entire Boumadine PEA — are estimates, prepared on the codes and bases stated beside each table; a PEA is preliminary, includes inferred resources, and is not a reserve or a production forecast. The Quality × Value verdict is an analytical read, never an instruction to the reader. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from primary filings and reviewed, but readers should verify every number against the original documents before acting on it. The author holds no position in Aya Gold & Silver Inc. or in any company named here. Please do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser.