Coeur Mining (CDE) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Durable structure — assets, reserves, unit costs, management — comes from Coeur Mining’s 2025 Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 31 December 2025); reserves are effective 31 December 2025, estimated under SEC S-K 1300 at $2,200/oz gold and $26.00/oz silver. The dated market layer reflects the completed acquisition of New Gold Inc. (closed 20 March 2026) and Coeur’s Second Quarter 2026 results (released 5 August 2026): the two New Gold mines (New Afton in British Columbia, Rainy River in Ontario) and ~392.7 million shares issued for them are treated as material post-period events and bridged into the market data and valuation. Market data is as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026; Coeur reports and trades in US dollars, so no FX conversion applies. Rating: ★★★★ (3.9/5), Solid — Modestly overvalued → Full: an all-North-American gold-silver-copper senior with a pristine, net-cash balance sheet and a sharp cost-and-cash-flow inflection ahead, but one whose shares have already re-rated ~90% off the 2025 lows and now discount metals holding above today’s elevated spot. Price deck (rule V26): base $4,000/oz gold, $50/oz silver, $4.50/lb copper (rounded-down trailing averages); bear $3,500 / $40 / $3.75 (the long-term reversion); bull $4,500 / $60 / $5.25; against spot ~$4,382/oz gold and ~$65/oz silver; 5% real post-tax discount rate, the precious-metals convention. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Coeur Mining spent 2025 and early 2026 turning itself from a chronically higher-cost, debt-laden silver-gold miner into the thing it always said it wanted to be: a scaled, net-cash, all-North-American precious-metals senior. The thesis in one line: two back-to-back all-stock deals — SilverCrest (Las Chispas) in February 2025 and New Gold (New Afton, Rainy River) in March 2026 — have roughly tripled the share count but also tripled the cash flow, adding a high-grade Mexican silver mine, an Ontario gold mine and a British Columbia copper-gold block cave whose by-product credits drive group costs sharply lower into 2027. It is worth a look now because the payoff is arriving: record Q2 2026 revenue of $1.1 billion, a net-cash balance sheet, an inaugural dividend and a $750 million buyback, and management guiding to roughly $2.3 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.5 billion of free cash flow this year. The catch is price — the stock has already run from a 52-week low of $9.68 to ~$18, so much of the re-rating is behind it. To screen Coeur against every other North American precious-metals producer on reserves, AISC, reserve life and P/NAV, go to Metal Pilot .

1. Snapshot & thesis

Coeur Mining, Inc. (NYSE, TSX: CDE) is an all-North-American precious-metals producer headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. After the New Gold acquisition it operates seven mines across three countries: the Palmarejo silver-gold complex (Chihuahua) and the high-grade Las Chispas silver-gold mine (Sonora) in Mexico; the Rochester silver-gold heap-leach (Nevada), the Kensington underground gold mine (Alaska) and the Wharf gold heap-leach (South Dakota) in the United States; and, from March 2026, the New Afton copper-gold block cave (British Columbia) and the Rainy River gold mine (Ontario) in Canada — plus the Silvertip silver-zinc-lead exploration project (British Columbia, on care and maintenance). By archetype it is a producer/operator (mining), so the full nine-dimension rubric applies (Section 9) and the valuation runs as a sum-of-the-parts NAV (Section 7). (koz = thousand ounces; Moz = million ounces; Mlb = million pounds; AuEq/GEO = gold-equivalent ounces, converting silver and copper to gold at prevailing prices; AISC = all-in sustaining cost; CAS = costs applicable to sales; 2P / P&P = proven-and-probable reserves; M&I = measured-and-indicated resources; NSR = net smelter return; S-K 1300 = the U.S. SEC mineral-disclosure standard.)

Figure 1. Coeur Mining in numbers

Figure data: Coeur Mining 2025 Form 10-K (reserves, costs, structure), Coeur Q2 2026 results (5 August 2026) and the Company update post-New Gold closing (production, cash flow, reserves, capital return); market data per stockanalysis.com as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026. Pro-forma reserves add New Gold’s New Afton (780 koz Au, 591 Mlb Cu) and Rainy River (2.2 Moz Au) to Coeur’s 4.4 Moz Au / 274 Moz Ag. Rating per Section 9, valuation read per Section 7.

Table 1. Coeur Mining in numbers

Source: Coeur 2025 10-K and Q2 2026 results ; shares outstanding per the post-New Gold company update . AuEq at the base price deck (~80:1 Ag:Au). Cash margin is the author’s estimate. Reserves are estimates (S-K 1300), not measured facts (rule A9).

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

Thesis in brief. The bull case is a genuinely transformed company: seven mines across the safest mining jurisdictions on earth, a net-cash balance sheet, a fully unhedged book that gives shareholders the full benefit of record gold and silver prices, and a cost curve that steepens downward into 2027 as New Afton’s copper by-product credits and Rochester’s completed expansion flow through — all funding a new $750 million buyback and Coeur’s first-ever dividend. The bear case is that the market already knows: the shares have nearly doubled off their 2025 low, so on a conservative through-cycle price deck they trade slightly ahead of intrinsic value, and the growth was bought with heavy share issuance rather than built. What tips it is metals and integration — hold gold above ~$4,000 and land the New Gold integration on plan, and the free-cash-flow machine justifies the price; see a metal pullback or an integration stumble, and the premium unwinds. The full rating is in Section 9.

2. Assets & operations

Coeur is a leveraged play on the gold and silver price, so the market backdrop matters: both metals sit near record highs in 2026 (gold ~$4,382/oz, silver ~$65/oz as of this analysis), a regime that has re-rated the entire precious-metals equity complex. For the supply, demand and price mechanics behind that regime, see the Gold — Complete Market Guide and the Silver — Complete Market Guide ; this section spends its words on what Coeur actually owns.

2.1 Portfolio overview & map

Coeur’s portfolio is deliberately balanced and mid-tier: no single world-class orebody, but seven producing assets in tier-1-to-tier-2 jurisdictions, spread across gold, silver and — since March 2026 — copper. That balance is the whole strategy, and it is the reason no one mine dominates the value.

Table 2. Coeur Mining asset portfolio (pro forma, post-New Gold)

Source: Coeur 2025 10-K , S-K 1300 reserves effective 31 Dec 2025 (Palmarejo, Rochester, Las Chispas, Kensington, Wharf, Silvertip); New Afton and Rainy River reserves per Coeur’s post-New Gold company update , effective year-end 2025. All assets 100%-owned and Coeur-operated. Silvertip holds resources, not reserves (rule A9).

Concentration. No mine is more than roughly a quarter of value, which is the point. By reserves, gold is spread across Rainy River (2.2 Moz), Wharf (1.25 Moz), Rochester (1.33 Moz), Palmarejo (0.93 Moz), New Afton, Kensington and Las Chispas; silver is far more concentrated — Rochester alone holds ~182 Moz of the ~280 Moz pro-forma reserve, about two-thirds — while all of the copper sits in one asset, New Afton. So the honest read on concentration is metal-specific: the gold and cash-flow base is genuinely diversified, but a Rochester setback would hit the silver thesis hard, and New Afton is a single point of failure for the copper credits that drive the cost story. A proportional-symbol asset map is not drawn here — this post type builds no SVG (see §10.1); the table above and this paragraph carry the read.

2.2 Revenue split — by metal & by asset

Two figures answer the first question about any resource company — what earns the money, and how concentrated is it. On the pro-forma company, gold does the heavy lifting, silver is the torque, and copper is the new, cost-lowering third leg.

Figure 2. Revenue by metal, 2026 (pro forma, estimated)

Figure data: author’s estimate from 2026 guidance (~690 koz Au, ~20 Moz Ag, ~45 Mlb Cu on a nine-month New Gold basis; ~900 koz Au / ~100 Mlb Cu at full-year run-rate) at the base deck ($4,000/oz Au, $50/oz Ag, $4.50/lb Cu). Legacy Coeur was 65% gold / 35% silver by 2025 metal sales (2025 10-K ); New Gold adds the copper leg. The point is directional: gold leads, silver is the swing factor, copper is the new by-product engine.

Figure 3. Revenue by asset, 2026 (pro forma, estimated)

Figure data: author’s estimate from per-mine production and 2025 metal-sales contribution in the 2025 10-K , plus New Gold’s disclosed New Afton and Rainy River output, at the base deck. Segment shares are estimates, not disclosed figures. The concentration read: New Afton is the single largest earner, but no asset exceeds ~a quarter of revenue — the portfolio is genuinely spread.

Read together, the two figures capture the new Coeur: gold-led, silver-torqued and copper-cushioned, with the earnings base spread across seven mines rather than resting on one. That diversification is real and it is the durable strength of the story — but note that the silver value concentrates in Rochester and the copper credits concentrate in New Afton, so two assets carry disproportionate weight in the parts of the thesis (silver upside, cost deflation) that the bulls care most about.

2.3 New Afton (British Columbia)

New Afton, ~10 km west of Kamloops, is the asset that reshapes Coeur’s cost profile. It is a 100%-owned copper-gold block-cave underground mine carrying proven-and-probable reserves of 780 koz gold and 591 Mlb copper in ~36.2 Mt of ore (year-end 2025). Under New Gold, a reserve addition extended the mine life via the C-zone block cave to roughly 2031, with further lift potential from the East Extension and the deeper C-zone. Its importance to Coeur is not its size but its economics: because copper is sold as a by-product credit against gold, New Afton’s gold all-in sustaining cost is forecast to fall toward $400–500/oz by 2027 as the C-zone ramps — dragging the whole group’s cost curve down with it. The single key asset-level risk is geotechnical: a block cave is an unforgiving mining method, and any subsidence, dilution or draw-control problem hits both the copper credits and the gold at once, in the one asset that supplies all of Coeur’s copper.

2.4 Rainy River (Ontario)

Rainy River, in northwestern Ontario, is a 100%-owned open-pit-plus-underground gold mine with 2.2 Moz of proven-and-probable gold reserves and 5.6 Moz of silver (year-end 2025) — the single largest gold reserve in the portfolio. New Gold reworked the mine plan before the sale: an optimised Phase 5 pit design pushed open-pit depletion out to 2028 and keeps the mill full at capacity into 2029, while a growing underground operation extends the productive life beyond the pit. Rainy River is a straightforward ~200 koz-a-year gold producer in a tier-1 jurisdiction, and it doubles Coeur’s Canadian gold base overnight. The key asset-level risk is reserve life at the mill’s throughput: the open pit is finite and near its end, so sustained output depends on the underground ramp and low-grade-stockpile processing arriving on schedule and on grade — the classic late-open-pit transition risk.

2.5 Palmarejo (Chihuahua, Mexico)

Palmarejo is Coeur’s silver-gold cornerstone in Mexico — a 100%-owned underground longhole complex operating since 2009, carrying 928 koz gold and 64.3 Moz silver in reserves at 1.41 g/t Au and 100 g/t Ag. It had an excellent 2025: reserves rose ~36% in gold and ~40% in silver on higher metal prices, conversion drilling and the 2024 purchase of adjacent mining concessions from a Fresnillo subsidiary for $25 million. The one structural feature every Palmarejo analysis must foreground is the Franco-Nevada gold stream: Coeur Mexicana must sell 50% of Palmarejo’s gold production at the lesser of $800 or the spot price per ounce (after an initial $22 million deposit). At $4,000/oz gold that stream surrenders roughly $3,200 of upside on half the mine’s gold — a large, permanent encumbrance that caps Palmarejo’s leverage to the gold price and is charged inside the asset model, not on the bridge (rule V24). The key asset-level risk beyond the stream is jurisdictional: Mexico’s tightening mining-permitting and security environment.

2.6 Rochester (Nevada)

Rochester is the silver anchor — a 100%-owned open-pit heap-leach silver-gold mine in Nevada operating since 1986, holding 181.8 Moz of silver reserves (about two-thirds of the pro-forma company) and 1.33 Moz of gold at very low grades (~11 g/t Ag, 0.12 g/t Au). Its story is the just-completed POA 11 expansion (a three-stage crushing facility, a new leach pad and a new Merrill-Crowe process plant, finished in 2024), which lifted throughput to record tonnes crushed and placed by late 2025 and extends the mine’s life for years. Rochester is where Coeur’s silver leverage lives: a large, long-life, low-grade heap leach whose value swings hardest with the silver price. The key asset-level risk is execution and recovery — the expansion ran materially over time and budget before it delivered, and heap-leach recovery is inherently slower and less certain than a mill, so the ramp to steady-state throughput and recovery is the number to watch.

2.7 Las Chispas (Sonora, Mexico)

Las Chispas is the high-grade jewel Coeur bought with the February 2025 SilverCrest acquisition (~239.3 million shares). It is a 100%-owned underground silver-gold mine in Sonora, in production only since 2022, with exceptional grades — 2.28 g/t gold and 198.5 g/t silver in reserves — and metallurgical recovery near 97%. Those grades make it a low-cost, high-margin ounce, but they come with the flip side of a small high-grade mine: short reserve life and rapid depletion. Reserves fell ~17% in gold and ~16% in silver in 2025 as mining outpaced additions, which is exactly why Coeur has doubled its 2026 exploration budget to a record ~$158 million, aimed squarely at Las Chispas and Palmarejo. The key asset-level risk is reserve replacement: at current mining rates the mine must keep converting resources to reserves to sustain its life, and the thesis leans on drilling success plus, again, the Mexican jurisdiction.

2.8 Kensington, Wharf & the development pipeline

The remaining producers are smaller but real. Kensington (Alaska) is a 100%-owned underground gold mine (546 koz reserves at 6.07 g/t) that sells gold concentrate under a long-term offtake; a 2022 POA 1 permit amendment added roughly ten years of life. Wharf (South Dakota) is a low-cost 100%-owned open-pit heap-leach gold mine whose reserves jumped ~65% in 2025 to 1.25 Moz on conversion drilling — though a 2025 fire disabled its crushing facility and forced a temporary work-around, a reminder of single-asset operational fragility. The development pipeline is thin by design: Silvertip (British Columbia), a high-grade silver-zinc-lead deposit (57.6 Moz Ag measured-and-indicated) held on care and maintenance and carrying ~$10 million a year in costs, would need new permits to restart; and Wilco (Nevada) is an early-stage gold-silver exploration project. Neither is in the near-term plan — both are optionality, named here rather than dropped (rule A5).

2.9 Production, reserves & costs

At the group level Coeur has been on a steep growth curve even before New Gold: consolidated gold production rose from ~316 koz in 2023 to a record 419 koz in 2025, and silver from ~10 Moz to 17.9 Moz, before the acquisition roughly doubles the base again in 2026.

Figure 4. Consolidated gold production, 2023–2026E

Figure data: Coeur 2025 10-K (2024 production 342 koz, 2025 419 koz; 2023 gold ounces sold 315,511) and 2026 guidance (~690 koz Au midpoint). 2026 is a forward estimate (generic Rule 4). Cost and reserve-life series are given in the prose, not overlaid (rule A13).

On reserves, the pro-forma company holds ~7.4 Moz gold, ~280 Moz silver and ~0.6 Blb copper (2P, S-K 1300, effective 31 December 2025, at $2,200/oz gold and $26.00/oz silver — well below spot, so a higher price deck would lift reserves further). Legacy Coeur’s reserve-replacement record is strong: Palmarejo, Wharf and Rochester all added reserves in 2025 despite depletion, and the record 2026 exploration budget targets more. Reserve life is moderate — roughly 8–10 years on a blended basis, with Las Chispas (short, high-grade) and Rainy River’s open pit (near depletion) at the short end and Rochester, Wharf and New Afton longer. On cost, Coeur has historically sat mid-to-high on the precious-metals cost curve — a legacy of Rochester’s ramp — but the direction is firmly down: the completed Rochester expansion, a full year of high-grade Las Chispas and, above all, New Afton’s copper by-product credits (guided toward $400–500/oz gold AISC by 2027) are steepening the group cost curve downward into 2027.

2.10 Peer positioning

The peer set used throughout this analysis — for every scorecard star in Section 9 and the relative valuation in Section 7 — is the North-American-focused mid-and-senior precious-metals producers with meaningful silver that Coeur competes with for capital. Coeur is now distinctive within it on three counts: it is the most jurisdiction-concentrated in North America, the only one adding a copper by-product leg, and among the strongest on balance sheet (net cash).

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: company reports and the Metal Pilot gold screener ; scale figures are latest guidance or trailing-year output. Valuation multiples are excluded here — they belong to the Section 7 module (rule A12).

Coeur sits mid-pack on scale and cost but ahead of most peers on jurisdiction and balance sheet. It is smaller in silver than Fresnillo or Pan American and its assets are lower-grade on average than a Las Chispas-only view suggests, but no peer combines its all-North-American footprint, its net-cash position and its copper-driven cost deflation. To rank Coeur against the full precious-metals peer set on reserves, AISC, reserve life and P/NAV, screen the sector on Metal Pilot .

3. Financials & balance sheet

Coeur’s financials tell the transformation story better than any narrative: a business that burned cash through the Rochester build in 2023–2024 became a cash machine in 2025 and is guided to roughly double again in 2026.

Table 4. Five-year financial summary

Source: Coeur 2025 10-K MD&A (2023–2025 revenue, net income, adjusted EBITDA, OCF, capex, FCF, total debt); Q2 2026 results and 2026 guidance for 2026E. 2026E figures are annualised from guidance and the Q2 run-rate — forward estimates, not achieved (generic Rule 4). 2023–2024 net debt and cash margin are author estimates; share counts are diluted-basis approximations reflecting the SilverCrest and New Gold issuances.

The three-statement red-flag review. Read against the framework in the Financial Metrics for Commodity Investing guide , Coeur passes the tests that matter and flags on exactly one. On the income statement, the margin is real: 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1,025.8 million on $2,070.1 million of revenue is a ~50% cash margin earned at realised prices of $3,184/oz gold and $40.01/oz silver — and both metals are higher now. GAAP net income of $585.9 million did include a one-off $160 million deferred-tax benefit, so the cleaner read is adjusted net income of $493.4 million. On the cash flow statement, the cash backs the profit — 2025 operating cash flow of $886.9 million ran well above both GAAP and adjusted net income, the sign of high earnings quality — and free cash flow swung from −$297.3 million in 2023 to +$665.7 million in 2025 as the Rochester growth capex rolled off (note the capex line falling from $364.6 million to ~$221 million even as output rose). On the balance sheet, resilience is a genuine strength: total debt fell 42% in 2025 to $340.5 million, cash rose tenfold to $554 million, and the company ended the year in a net-cash position (net leverage (0.2)×) — a position that survives a materially lower price deck, since even a halving of EBITDA leaves the balance sheet net-cash. Liquidity post-close is ~$1.1 billion of cash and short-term investments plus a fully undrawn $1.0 billion revolving facility; the book is entirely unhedged, so shareholders keep the full upside (and downside) of spot. Reclamation and asset-retirement provisions are a real future cash bill on the heap-leach assets (Rochester, Wharf) and are carried in liabilities. The one clear red flag is dilution: the diluted share count roughly tripled from ~343 million (2023) to ~1,034 million (2026) as SilverCrest and New Gold were bought entirely with stock. The cash flow tripled too, so per-share value was not destroyed — but every future figure must be judged per share, and the model that funds growth with equity rather than retained cash is the standing risk to capital allocation (Section 9, Dimension 6). Capital returns now finally exist: a $750 million buyback and an inaugural $0.04-a-year dividend, both funded from free cash flow rather than debt.

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

Coeur is led by Mitchell J. Krebs, who serves as Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer — CEO since 2011, and the architect of the deleveraging and the two transformational acquisitions that define the current company. The board includes Linda L. Adamany, Pierre Beaudoin, Paramita Das, Jeane L. Hull, Eduardo Luna, Robert E. Mellor and J. Kenneth Thompson, and operates through five named committees: Audit; Compensation and Leadership Development; Executive; Nominating and Corporate Governance; and Environmental, Health, Safety and Corporate Responsibility — the last a board-level committee dedicated to sustainability oversight. Governance practice covers annual succession planning and a formal conflict-of-interest process requiring directors and officers to disclose material conflicts and abstain from related votes. The one governance mark worth naming is the combination of Chairman, President and CEO in a single person — a concentration of authority that is common in the sector but that weakens the independent check a separate chair provides.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The stated strategy is to blend cash flow from current operations with growth from expansions, exploration, development and acquisitions that add scale — and management has executed it literally, using the SilverCrest acquisition (Las Chispas) and the New Gold acquisition (New Afton, Rainy River) to build what it calls a sector-leading, all-North-American senior precious-metals company. Organic growth has come from the completed POA 11 expansion at Rochester and the POA 1 expansion at Kensington (roughly ten years of additional life). Financing discipline runs through a $1.0 billion senior secured revolving credit facility and opportunistic at-the-market equity. The forward outlook carries named targets: 2026 production of ~690 koz gold, ~20 Moz silver and ~45 Mlb copper, a record $158 million exploration budget aimed at extending Las Chispas and Palmarejo, and the first return of capital in the company’s history — the $750 million buyback and the inaugural dividend. The capital-allocation question the record leaves open is whether the all-stock M&A created value per share or simply scale; the answer turns on integration and on metals holding up.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

Table 5. Material corporate events & structure

Source: Coeur 2025 10-K , the New Gold acquisition close release and the post-close company update . Every deal, stream and note is named with context (rule A6).

The structure that matters most to a valuation is the Franco-Nevada Palmarejo gold stream — a permanent encumbrance that surrenders half of Palmarejo’s gold at ~$800/oz — and the near-tripling of the share count through two all-stock deals, which is why the per-share discipline flagged in Section 3 is the crux of the capital-allocation rating.

5. ESG & sustainability

Coeur frames its sustainability under the purpose statement “We Pursue a Higher Standard,” and the disclosure is above sector-average in substance. On environment, the company reports it achieved its 35% net greenhouse-gas-intensity-reduction target by the end of 2024 versus its base year, has adopted a Biodiversity Management Standard and a Tailings Management Policy committing to the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM), and increased its share of cost-effective renewable electricity through formal agreements. Climate disclosures are aligned to TCFD and folded into enterprise risk management. On the social side, named programs include Coeur Heroes (over 110 career opportunities for current and former U.S. military personnel), a Total Worker Health program, an average of 60% local hiring since 2018, and over 40 apprenticeships and internships in 2025. The honest counterweight: heap-leach and tailings operations carry inherent environmental and closure liabilities, the 2025 Wharf crushing-facility fire is a reminder that operational incidents happen, and the Mexican assets sit in a jurisdiction where water use and community relations are perennial license-to-operate questions. On balance the programs are named, measured and credible — enough to support a solid, not exceptional, ESG score (Section 9, Dimension 9).

6. Risks

The risk register below is stated before the valuation so the bear scenario and discount rate can price it. Coeur’s balance-sheet strength means no risk is both highly likely and catastrophic — but the metal price sits alone at the top, because an unhedged, cost-mid-curve producer is a leveraged bet on gold and silver.

Table 6. Risk register

Source: Coeur 2025 10-K risk factors and MD&A; likelihood × impact ratings are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.

Figure 5. Risk matrix — likelihood × impact

Figure data: Table 6. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant. Ratings are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.

The register’s shape captures the stock’s character: its biggest exposure is the metal price, and its balance sheet neutralises almost everything else. Integration and reserve-life sit next — the two operational questions the acquisitions and the high-grade Las Chispas leave open — while the net-cash position pushes the balance-sheet and dilution risks to the bottom of the chart. This is a company whose downside is mostly macro, which is exactly what a leveraged precious-metals bet should look like.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 10 August 2026, in US dollars (Coeur reports and trades in USD — no FX conversion). Horizon: spot fair value. Deck: gold spot ~$4,382/oz, base $4,000, bear $3,500, bull $4,500; silver spot ~$65/oz, base $50, bear $40, bull $60; copper base $4.50/lb. Discount rate 5% real post-tax (6% in the bear). Share price $18.15, ~1,034.5 m diluted shares. All asset values are attributable (100%-owned).

Coeur is a multi-mine, multi-metal producer, so it is valued as a sum-of-the-parts net asset value — a discounted cash flow on the gold mines, the silver assets and the New Afton copper-gold block cave, bridged through net cash to equity — cross-checked with cash-flow multiples. The conclusion: a base-case net asset value of ~$14.50 per share and a blended base-case fair value of ~$15.30 against a $18.15 share price, a P/NAV of ~1.25×, giving a value read of Modestly overvalued. The nuance the number hides is the deck: the base leans on a conservative through-cycle price (silver $50 against a ~$65 spot), so on spot metals the equity is roughly fairly valued — the market is pricing metals near their record highs, not a discount.

7.1 Method selection

Table 7. Valuation method selection

Source: producer-archetype weight set (Metal Pilot valuation framework, Table 2). Intrinsic family 50% (single method) and cash-flow family 50% (two methods) sit exactly at the collinearity ceiling (rule V18); no family is over-weighted. Every weighted method emits a value per share (rule V11).

7.2 Net asset value (NAV / DCF)

The sum-of-the-parts groups the assets into a gold segment (Rainy River, Kensington, Wharf, plus the gold in Palmarejo and Las Chispas net of the Franco-Nevada stream), a silver segment (Rochester plus the silver in Palmarejo and Las Chispas), and New Afton on its own (copper-gold), then bridges through corporate G&A, net cash and reclamation to equity.

Figure 6. Net asset value build-up, base case

Figure data: Table 8. Segment groupings and NPVs are the author’s estimates from 2026 guidance, per-mine reserves and unit costs in the 2025 10-K , at the base deck. Equity NAV of ~$15,000 m equates to ~$14.50 per share. The gold segment is the largest component; New Afton’s copper-gold value is the newest.

Table 8. NAV build-up, base case (US$m)

Source: author’s model; NPVs are estimates, not company-published figures (assumptions box below). Net debt and reclamation per the 2025 10-K and Q2 2026 results .

Because a DCF exists, the sensitivity grid is mandatory (rule V6). NAV/share is most sensitive to the gold price (the largest revenue leg) and the discount rate:

Figure 7. NAV per share sensitivity — gold price × discount rate

Figure data: this analysis’ NAV model, holding silver at $50/oz. The $18.15 share price sits above the base cell and around the +10%-gold column — the market is capitalising Coeur at roughly a gold price near today’s spot (~$4,382), well above the conservative $4,000 base, which is the whole reason the base-case read is “modestly overvalued.”

7.3 Relative valuation

Table 9. Relative valuation cross-checks

Source: author’s calculations; market cap, EV and net cash per Table 1; reserves per §2; EBITDA and FCF per 2026 guidance. Multiples use near-spot 2026 guided cash flow (V17: the EV/EBITDA method is struck on mid-cycle EBITDA in the blend). Ranges are conventions, not current peer observations.

Applied to Coeur’s own metrics, the cash-flow methods give an EV/EBITDA-implied value of ~$15.90/share (a 7.5× mid-cycle multiple on base-deck EBITDA, plus net cash) and an FCF-yield-support value of ~$16.20/share (an 8.5% target yield on base-deck free cash flow). Both sit close to the NAV, which is the reassuring part: three independent reads cluster around $14.50–16.20 on the conservative deck. The one genuinely bullish relative fact is the P/NAV of ~1.25×, below Pan American’s ~1.7× — on that single yardstick Coeur is the cheaper way to own North American precious-metals torque.

7.4 Cross-checks

The market-implied read (rule V19) reverses the model: holding silver at spot, the NAV returns the $18.15 share price at a flat gold price of roughly $4,600/oz — i.e., the market is discounting gold a touch above today’s already-record ~$4,382 spot, in perpetuity. That is the finding: the shares do not embed a discount to intrinsic value; they embed metals holding near their highs. The analyst-consensus targets cluster near the current price after the 2026 rally, consistent with a stock the market has already re-rated (a 0%-weight cross-check, rule V12). And on EV per reserve ounce, Coeur screens rich — but that reflects reserves struck at a conservative $2,200/oz gold, which a higher deck would expand.

7.5 Scenario analysis

Every weighted method is re-run in each world (rule V14): the deck, discount rate and mid-cycle multiple move together.

Table 10. Scenario analysis — value per share

Source: author’s model. Each scenario recomputes every weighted method (rule V14). The bear anchors on the long-term reversion deck; the bull is one-to-two grid rungs above base (rule V26).

7.6 Fair value & conclusion

Table 11. Fair-value blend, base case

Source: author’s model; recompute on a calculator from the weights above (rule V11). Blend ≈ $15.26, rounded to $15.30.

The blended base-case fair value of ~$15.30 against the $18.15 price implies about −16%, a value read of Modestly overvalued — the market prices metals near spot, above the conservative base deck. The honest counterpoint, and the reason this is “modestly” and not “clearly” overvalued, is threefold: the value range reaches $21 in the bull case on metals barely above today’s spot; the P/NAV of ~1.25× is a lower premium than the closest peer; and the cost-and-cash-flow inflection into 2027 (New Afton’s copper credits) is not fully in the base-deck cash flows. This is a good business at a full price, not an expensive business.

Assumptions box. Valuation date 10 Aug 2026; balance-sheet date 30 Jun 2026 (Q2), bridged for the New Gold close and note exchange; horizon spot fair value. Currency USD throughout (no FX). Deck (real): gold base $4,000/bear $3,500/bull $4,500; silver $50/$40/$60; copper $4.50/lb — rounded-down trailing averages (rule V26), spot and consensus carried as 0%-weight cross-checks. Discount rate 5% real post-tax (6% bear), the precious-metals convention. Real basis throughout (rule V21). Shares fully diluted ~1,034.5 m. Cycle normalised on the EBITDA side of EV/EBITDA (rule V17). Weights: NAV 50% / EV/EBITDA 30% / FCF-yield 20% (producer default). NAV provenance: author-built from filings and guidance; no company NPV published. Primary yardstick: P/NAV.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

The forward view is unusually concrete for a miner, because most of the upside is contracted ramps and completed expansions rather than blue-sky.

Table 12. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Source: Coeur 2026 guidance and company update ; New Afton cost path per New Gold’s 2025 mine-plan disclosure . Timing is guidance, not a guarantee (generic Rule 4).

Tied to the thesis, these are the events that would confirm the bull case: the cost curve steepens down, the silver mine hits its stride, and the acquisitions prove accretive per share. The swing factor throughout is execution and timing at the operations — New Afton’s cave and Rainy River’s transition in particular. (No takeover-optionality subsection is included: Coeur is a producer, not an explorer or developer, so an M&A-target read would be speculation the reader cannot act on — rule A14.)

9. Rating & verdict

Table 13. Scorecard rationale (ordered by weight)

Weighted average: 0.60 + 0.45 + 0.60 + 0.75 + 0.45 + 0.31 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 3.91/5 → ★★★★ (Solid). Producer weighting (Metal Pilot scorecard): the five 15%-weighted dimensions lead; peer set per §2.10.

The two-axis verdict. Quality Solid (★★★★, 3.9/5); value Modestly overvalued as of 10 August 2026 → Full — the market already sees it. The bull case is a genuinely better company than the one that entered 2025: net cash, an unhedged book giving full leverage to record metals, a cost curve bending down through 2027, and the first real return of capital in its history. The bear case is the price: the shares have already re-rated ~90% off their 2025 low, so on a conservative through-cycle deck they trade ahead of intrinsic value, and the growth was bought with dilution rather than built. The specific thing that tips the verdict is metals plus integration — hold gold near $4,000+ and land New Gold on plan, and the ~$2 bn free-cash-flow run-rate carries the price; a metal pullback or an integration stumble, and the premium unwinds toward the ~$15 base-case fair value. This is an analytical read, not a recommendation. To rank Coeur against every peer on these same nine dimensions — reserves, AISC, reserve life, P/NAV — screen the sector on Metal Pilot .

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings & disclosure: Coeur Mining 2025 Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 31 December 2025 — assets, S-K 1300 reserves, financials, management, structure, risk factors); Q2 2026 results (5 August 2026); Company update post-New Gold closing and New Gold acquisition close (20 March 2026); inaugural dividend . New Gold assets: New Gold’s mine-life-extension release (New Afton, Rainy River reserves and cost path). Market data: stockanalysis.com (price, shares, as of 10 August 2026). Peer & sector context: the Metal Pilot gold screener and the Gold/Silver market guides.

Methodology. Durable structure (assets, reserves at $2,200/oz Au and $26/oz Ag, unit costs, management) is from the 2025 10-K; the dated market layer (price, share count, net debt) reflects the completed New Gold acquisition and Q2 2026 results, bridged as material post-period events. The valuation uses a base price deck of $4,000/oz gold, $50/oz silver and $4.50/lb copper (rounded-down trailing averages, rule V26) at a 5% real post-tax discount rate; asset NPVs are author-built. The peer set (§2.10) is North-American-focused precious-metals producers with meaningful silver. Data as of 10 August 2026; refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. Figures omitted (rule A13): the proportional-symbol asset map (§2.1) is drawn geometry the component library does not express and this post type generates no SVG, so it is skipped — the portfolio table and concentration paragraph carry that read. Provenance: Coeur Mining, Inc. — Form 10-K — 2025.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 10 August 2026; market data, the valuation and the rating move with prices and events, and every figure — especially reserves, NPVs and forward guidance — is an estimate subject to change. Reserve and resource figures are estimates under SEC S-K 1300, not measured facts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before acting. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from primary filings and reviewed, but readers should verify against the original sources before relying on them. The author holds no position in Coeur Mining (CDE) at the time of writing.