First Majestic Silver (AG) — Stock Analysis 2026 [2.9]

Analysis as of 11 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals come from First Majestic Silver’s 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025) and its Q2 2026 results (reported 30 July 2026). Market data is as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026 ($18.85). Rating: ★★★, Average — Overvalued (wide band) → full: priced for spot silver. Price deck: silver spot ~US$66/oz, base US$50/oz, conservative US$34/oz; gold spot ~US$4,395/oz, base US$3,500/oz, conservative US$2,900/oz; 5% real post-tax discount rate. All figures are US dollars unless marked otherwise. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

First Majestic Silver is one of the purest large silver bets on the market — a senior producer that still earns most of its money from silver, not gold, at a moment when silver has run to ~$66 an ounce. It runs four mines in Mexico plus a suspended gold complex in Nevada, holds ~185 million ounces of silver-equivalent reserves, sits on roughly $0.9 billion of net cash, and is unusually leveraged to the metal: a beta above 2 and one of the highest cost bases of the silver seniors. The thesis in one line: a high-cost, high-torque silver producer that has tripled off its lows and is now priced as if $66 silver is permanent, with real but expensive optionality behind it. Why look now: silver is up ~119% in a year, First Majestic just posted record quarterly revenue, and the whole silver complex is being repriced on solar and electrification demand. To screen First Majestic against every listed silver and gold producer on grade, cost, reserve life and stage, go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG; TSX: AG) is a senior silver-and-gold producer founded in 2002 and headquartered in Vancouver, with about 5,500 employees and contractors and four operating mines — San Dimas, Santa Elena and La Encantada in Mexico, plus the 70%-held Los Gatos joint venture in Chihuahua — behind the temporarily suspended Jerritt Canyon gold complex in Nevada, two Mexican mines on care and maintenance (San Martín, Del Toro — the latter being sold), and a 100%-owned bullion-minting business, First Mint, in Nevada. By archetype it is a producer/operator, silver-led with a material gold and base-metal contribution, so the full nine-dimension rubric applies (Section 9) and the valuation runs sum-of-the-parts (Section 7). (AgEq = silver-equivalent, net of by-product treatment; AISC = all-in sustaining cost; koz = thousand ounces, Moz = million ounces; 2P = proven and probable reserves; M&I = measured and indicated resources.)

Figure 1. First Majestic Silver in numbers

Figure data: First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form (reserves, resources, production) and Q2 2026 results (guidance, balance sheet); market data per stockanalysis.com as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026. Rating per Section 9, valuation read per Section 7.

Table 1. First Majestic Silver in numbers

Source: First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form for reserves, resources and production, prepared under NI 43-101 / CIM codes; market data, share count, beta and consensus per stockanalysis.com , 10–11 Aug 2026; five-year financials per the financials overview (Fiscal.ai / S&P Global). Reserves are effective 31 December 2025 at $35/oz Ag, $3,100/oz Au; AgEq combines silver, gold and base metals at those prices. The 70% Los Gatos interest is consolidated; base-metal by-products (Zn/Pb/Cu) come chiefly from Los Gatos. Listed: Public (NYSE: AG / TSX: AG).

Thesis in brief. Bull: a large, silver-led producer into a structural silver bull market — solar, electrification and data-centre demand against tight supply — with net cash, a fresh convertible-funded war chest, ~185 Moz of AgEq reserves and a deep resource base behind them, real growth in the Los Gatos joint venture and Santa Elena discoveries, and vertical integration into retail bullion through First Mint; and it is high-beta (2.11), so a rising silver price lifts it more than almost any peer. Bear: it is one of the highest-cost silver seniors (2026 AISC guidance $27.69–28.77 per AgEq ounce), its assets are concentrated in Mexico at a time of mining-law and security risk, its capital-allocation record is poor (repeated impairments, heavy dilution — the share count is up ~29% in a year — and a token dividend), and after tripling off its lows the shares are priced for spot silver near $66 rather than any through-cycle price. What tips it: the silver price, full stop. The full rating and its rationale are in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

First Majestic sells into two precious-metals markets and, through Los Gatos, a base-metals one — and in August 2026 the precious side is extraordinary: silver near $66/oz (up ~119% in a year on solar and electrification demand) and gold near $4,395/oz. The company runs no commodity hedge, so every ounce flows through at spot. For how silver is priced and why silver miners are the highest-torque expression of the metal, see the Silver — A Complete Market Guide . This section spends its words on the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview & map

Four operating mines — three in Mexico plus a 70%-held Mexican joint venture — a suspended gold complex in Nevada, two idle Mexican silver mines, and a bullion mint.

Table 2. Asset base (attributable)

Source: First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form , production tables effective 31 December 2025, prepared under NI 43-101 / CIM codes; figures are attributable (Los Gatos at 70%). Los Gatos came with the January 2025 acquisition of Gatos Silver, and is operated alongside Dowa Metal & Mining (30%). Jerritt Canyon has been suspended since 2023 to focus on exploration and a potential restart. San Martín is on care and maintenance for security reasons; Del Toro is under a December 2025 agreement to be sold to Sierra Madre Gold and Silver for up to US$60 m. San Dimas carries a Wheaton Precious Metals stream on 25% of gold-equivalent production. Mineral resources are not mineral reserves. Listed: Public (NYSE: AG / TSX: AG).

Two facts about that table matter more than the rest. Unlike most of its silver-major peers, First Majestic really is silver-led — silver is about half of revenue, with gold (mostly from San Dimas and Santa Elena) and Los Gatos base metals splitting the rest — which is exactly why it is the highest-torque name in the group. And the portfolio is overwhelmingly Mexican: four of five producing/near-producing assets sit in Mexico, so the jurisdiction score in Section 9 is low despite the two US and Canadian footholds.

Geographic concentration. This is a Mexico company with a Nevada option. San Dimas (Durango/Sinaloa), Santa Elena (Sonora), La Encantada (Coahuila) and Los Gatos (Chihuahua) are all Mexican; Jerritt Canyon (Nevada) and the tiny Springpole stream (Ontario) are the only non-Mexican exposure of note. Mexico has tightened mining-concession, open-pit and water rules since 2023, and organised-crime activity has directly affected First Majestic before (San Martín is idle for exactly that reason). A proportional-symbol asset map is not rendered here — this analysis publishes no drawn geometry, and a symbol map is one of the graphics the component library does not express (see Section 10.1); the portfolio table and the value split below carry what it would have shown.

2.2 Where the revenue and the value sit

The most useful split for First Majestic is by metal, because it is the one large silver name whose revenue is still silver-led — and because the base-metal contribution from Los Gatos is now material.

Figure 2. Revenue by metal, 2025 (estimated)

Figure data: author’s estimate from the 2025 Annual Information Form production and the financials overview ; First Majestic reports revenue by mine, not cleanly by metal, so the split is an estimate at ~2025 realised prices (silver from all four mines plus First Mint bullion; gold chiefly from San Dimas and Santa Elena; base metals from Los Gatos). The point is directional: silver is still the largest revenue line — the exception among the silver seniors.

Figure 3. Net asset value by asset, base case

Figure data: the Section 7 net-asset-value build (Table 9, base case: $50/oz silver, $3,500/oz gold, 5% real post-tax discount rate). Shares are of gross positive asset value before the corporate charge, net cash and the reclamation bridge. The asset groupings and the Jerritt, development and resource-conversion risk factors are the author’s estimates, not disclosed figures.

The two figures make the point: First Majestic is genuinely a silver company by revenue, but its value is spread across a handful of mid-sized Mexican mines, with the acquired Los Gatos joint venture now the single most valuable asset and no one mine dominating. That diversification is real, but it is diversification within Mexico, and none of the assets is a true tier-1 silver mine on the scale of a Fresnillo or a Juanicipio.

2.3 Los Gatos — the Gatos Silver prize

Los Gatos, in Chihuahua, is the best mine First Majestic owns, and the reason it acquired Gatos Silver in January 2025. It is a 70%-held joint venture (Japan’s Dowa Metal & Mining holds 30% and provides offtake), a high-grade underground silver–lead–zinc operation whose attributable 2025 output was 5.9 Moz of silver plus meaningful zinc, lead and copper. On a 70% basis it holds 35.3 Moz of proven-and-probable silver reserves (9.55 Mt at 115 g/t Ag) and 42.4 Moz of M&I silver resources, with base-metal resources up sharply year-on-year. It is long-life, comparatively low-cost, and the clearest quality upgrade in the portfolio — bought through a corporate deal rather than built, which is the recurring pattern in First Majestic’s growth.

The asset-level risks are the minority partner (a JV is not a wholly-owned mine, and Dowa’s consent matters), the base-metal exposure (Los Gatos economics depend on zinc and lead as well as silver), and Chihuahua’s security environment. But Los Gatos is the mine that most justifies the Gatos price tag, and the anchor of the base-case value.

2.4 San Dimas — the silver-gold cornerstone

San Dimas, on the Durango–Sinaloa border, is First Majestic’s longest-held and most balanced mine — a 100%-owned underground silver-gold complex that produced 5.4 Moz of silver and 55.7 koz of gold in 2025 from the Tayoltita mill, with its own hydro and LNG power. It holds 23.2 Moz of P&P silver and 290 koz of P&P gold (3.7 Mt at 195 g/t Ag, 2.43 g/t Au), and a deep M&I and inferred resource behind it that has historically replaced what the mine depletes. Sustaining capital runs ~$25 m a year on the life-of-mine plan.

The one encumbrance to remember is the Wheaton Precious Metals stream on 25% of San Dimas gold-equivalent production — a legacy of the mine’s Primero-era history that permanently gives away a quarter of the gold-equivalent upside, and which the valuation charges inside the asset’s revenue line. San Dimas is the steady, diversified heart of the company; it is also its most gold-weighted mine, which is why First Majestic is not only a silver story.

2.5 Santa Elena, La Encantada and the Mexican silver base

Santa Elena (Sonora) is a 100%-owned silver-gold complex — the Santa Elena and Ermitaño underground mines plus a heap-leach pad — that produced 1.4 Moz of silver and 88 koz of gold in 2025, making it the group’s most gold-weighted operation after San Dimas. Its importance is as much about the future as the present: First Majestic is drilling the Navidad vein system (expansionary) and has declared a maiden inferred resource at the Santo Niño project, both of which sit beside the existing infrastructure and could extend the complex’s life. New Luna reserves added in 2025 roughly offset depletion.

La Encantada (Coahuila) is a 100%-owned silver-oxide mine that produced 2.8 Moz of silver in 2025, much of it from lower-grade material outside the reserve (276 kt of the 1.1 Mt processed came from reserves, the rest from stockpile and tailings re-evaluation). It is the shortest-life, most marginal of the producing mines — a genuine silver mine, but one whose economics are thin at anything below a strong silver price. Together the two round out a Mexican silver base that is real in ounces but middling in grade and cost.

2.6 Jerritt Canyon, First Mint and the optionality

Two non-core pieces carry most of the company’s “story” value. Jerritt Canyon, a 100%-owned gold complex on Nevada’s Carlin Trend, was suspended in 2023 to refocus on exploration; it holds a large 4.1 Moz of M&I gold resource (plus inferred), and First Majestic is spending on dewatering and bulk-mining studies toward a possible restart. It is a real, permitted, tier-1-jurisdiction gold asset — but it is idle, capital-hungry, and has already absorbed impairments, so the valuation treats it as heavily-risked optionality rather than base-case production.

First Mint, the 100%-owned Las Vegas minting facility, is First Majestic’s genuinely differentiated bet: by turning its own silver into investment-grade bullion and selling it directly to retail buyers, it captures the retail premium instead of the spot price. Bullion sales began in 2024 and reached ~7% of silver production in 2025. It is small today, but it is the one thing no silver-major peer does, and it is a structurally higher-margin outlet for a slice of output. First Majestic also holds a small silver stream over 50% of payable silver from First Mining’s development-stage Springpole project in Ontario — an asset-light royalty-like interest, not an operation.

2.7 Group production, reserves & costs

Figure 4. Group attributable silver production, 2021–2026

Figure data: First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form (2025 = 15.4 Moz attributable) and prior-year reporting; earlier years are approximate. Silver output dipped in 2023–2024 as Jerritt Canyon was suspended and San Martín idled, then jumped in 2025 when Los Gatos was consolidated. 2026 is the guidance midpoint, a forward estimate, not an achieved figure.

Costs. This is the honest weak spot. First Majestic guides 2026 consolidated AISC of $27.69–28.77 per payable AgEq ounce — among the highest of the silver seniors — and reports cash costs and AISC on a silver-equivalent basis at a fixed 75:1 gold-to-silver ratio. Q2 2026 came in below guidance at $18.06 cash cost and $25.68 AISC per AgEq ounce on strong metal prices, but the structural point stands: First Majestic is a higher-cost operator, which is precisely what makes it high-beta — high fixed costs mean margins expand and contract faster than the silver price. At $66 silver the margins are fat; at a through-cycle price they are thin. For how cost-curve position decides who survives a downturn, see the macro regime guide .

Reserves and resources. First Majestic holds 101 Moz of proven-and-probable silver, 0.6 Moz of gold and material base metals — about 185 Moz of silver-equivalent P&P reserves (effective 31 December 2025, struck at $35/oz Ag and $3,100/oz Au), and a deeper M&I and inferred resource behind them, including Jerritt Canyon’s 4.1 Moz of M&I gold. At ~31 Moz AgEq of annual production that is a reserve life of only ~6 years on booked reserves — short, and typical of underground silver miners, which lean on continual near-mine conversion of resources to reserves rather than a long dated reserve book. The resource base and the exploration pipeline (Navidad, Santo Niño, Los Gatos, Jerritt) are what make the mine lives longer than the reserve figure suggests — but they are conversion optionality, not booked ounces.

2.8 Peer positioning

The peer set used throughout this analysis — for every scorecard star in Section 9 and the relative valuation in Section 7 — is the listed primary-silver producers First Majestic competes with for capital.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: each company’s latest guidance as published; Pan American per the Metal Pilot Pan American Silver analysis and Hecla per the Hecla Mining analysis ; First Majestic per the 2025 Annual Information Form . Scale and cost bases differ between issuers — some report silver-equivalent, some primary silver, net of different by-product credits — so the comparison is indicative. Screen the full silver peer set on grade, cost, reserve life and stage at Metal Pilot.

First Majestic’s position in that set is distinctive but not flattering. It is the most silver-led of the large names and by far the highest-beta, which is its whole appeal in a silver bull market — but it is higher-cost than Fresnillo, Pan American or Hecla, more concentrated in Mexico than any of them, and smaller than the leaders in silver ounces. It lacks Fresnillo’s cost leadership, Pan American’s reserve depth and Hecla’s tier-1 jurisdiction. What it offers instead is torque: if silver runs, First Majestic runs harder; if silver falls, it falls harder too.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 4. Five-year financial summary (US$m unless stated, years ended 31 December)

Source: First Majestic Silver financials drawing on the audited IFRS statements (Fiscal.ai / S&P Global). 2022–2024 were years of losses — weak silver prices, the Jerritt Canyon suspension and impairments produced four straight annual net losses even as revenue held; 2025 was transformational, with revenue up 124% (the Los Gatos consolidation plus a rising silver price) and the first net profit in years. Share count jumped in 2025 with the ~177 m shares issued for Gatos. Trailing twelve months to 30 June 2026: revenue ~$1,641 m, net income ~$348 m, operating cash flow ~$826 m, free cash flow ~$614 m, cash & investments ~$1.25 bn, net cash ~$0.9 bn.

Figure 5. Operating cash flow, 2021–2025

Figure data: stockanalysis.com from Fiscal.ai / S&P Global. Operating cash flow rose from a $19 m trough in 2022 to $526 m in 2025 and ~$826 m on a trailing basis to June 2026; free cash flow reached $315 m in 2025 and ~$614 m trailing.

The five-year record is a turnaround, and a recent one. First Majestic lost money every year from 2021 to 2024 — weak silver, the Jerritt suspension and repeated impairments — before 2025 delivered the first real profit, driven by the Los Gatos acquisition and a surging silver price. Read operating cash flow as the check on that: it now runs well above net income, which is the right shape (heavy non-cash D&A and past write-downs depress reported earnings), and free cash flow has turned firmly positive. But the earnings power is new, price-driven and levered to a single metal — this is not a business with a decade of through-cycle profitability behind it.

Capex — sustaining vs. growth. Of the ~$211 m spent in 2025, the bulk is sustaining (San Dimas alone runs ~$25 m a year on its life-of-mine plan); the discretionary growth spend is Jerritt Canyon’s dewatering and studies and Santa Elena’s exploration. The filing does not cleanly split the two group-wide, so treat AISC as the better guide to the true cost of holding output flat.

Balance sheet and capital returns. At 30 June 2026 First Majestic held ~$1.25 billion in treasury against ~$0.35 billion of debt — net cash of roughly $0.9 billion, a current ratio of 2.6× and debt/EBITDA of ~0.35×. In December 2025 it issued US$350 million of unsecured convertible senior notes due 2031 (conversion price ~$22.36, currently out of the money), which fund the growth pipeline and the war chest. The balance sheet is a genuine strength — comfortably able to fund Jerritt, the Santa Elena discoveries and the Los Gatos share. Against that, capital returns are minimal: a token $0.05 dividend (0.24% yield) and, rather than buybacks, net share issuance — the count is up ~29% in a year after the Gatos deal, so the “buyback yield” is deeply negative. This is a growth-and-torque stock, not a capital-returns one.

The three-statement red-flag review. Read against the framework in the Financial Metrics for Commodity Investing guide: the income statement shows real but young margins (56% gross in 2025) resting on a high cost base and a spot-elevated silver price; the balance sheet is clean and net-cash, with the one thing to watch being the convertible (bridged at face in the valuation); and the cash flow statement now backs the earnings — operating cash flow exceeds net income and free cash flow is positive — but the dilution record is the red flag, with the share count rising by roughly a third in a year and four prior years of losses and impairments behind it. The cross-statement test — does the cash back the profit? — passes today, but only at prices well above the through-cycle deck.

Hedging. First Majestic is unhedged on silver and gold — no commodity, FX or interest-rate hedges were outstanding at 31 December 2025 — so every ounce flows through at spot. That is the whole point of owning it, and the whole risk.

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

First Majestic is closely identified with Keith Neumeyer, its founder and Chief Executive Officer since 2001 — one of the most prominent and outspoken silver bulls in the industry, and the founder of First Mining Gold as well. That profile is a double-edged asset: it gives the company a loud voice and a loyal retail following, but Neumeyer’s public silver-price advocacy is far more bullish than any analyst deck, and it colours how the market reads the story. The board is chaired by Thomas F. Fudge, Jr., a semi-retired consultant, and is small — five directors, four of them independent — with standing Audit, Compensation, Corporate Governance and Nominating, and Sustainability committees.

The one governance item to weigh is a disclosed related-party conflict: Neumeyer and director Raymond L. Polman both sit on the board of First Mining Gold, the counterparty to First Majestic’s Springpole silver stream, and must recuse themselves from related resolutions. It is managed and disclosed, but it is a genuine conflict at the top of a small board, and it is the kind of thing a governance-minded investor should notice. The team is long-tenured and silver-focused; the concern is concentration of influence and a promotional streak, not competence.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The stated strategy is to blend cash flow from current operations with growth through acquisition and exploration — and the record is exactly that, weighted toward M&A. The defining recent move was the January 2025 acquisition of Gatos Silver, which brought the 70% Los Gatos interest and turned a shrinking, higher-cost Mexican miner into a larger, more diversified one. Organically, the priorities are the Santa Elena discoveries (Navidad, Santo Niño), a potential Jerritt Canyon restart, and the First Mint vertical-integration bet on capturing retail bullion margin.

The capital-allocation record is the weakest part of the story. The Gatos deal added a good asset but was heavily dilutive (~177 m shares, roughly 38% of the post-deal count on a fully-diluted basis); the prior years brought repeated impairments (Jerritt Canyon above all); and the dividend is a rounding error. Management is a capable operator and an aggressive acquirer, but shareholders have paid for growth in dilution and have seen little cash returned. The forward case rests on the silver price and on Los Gatos and Santa Elena delivering — not on a track record of per-share value creation, which is poor.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

Table 5. Capital structure and corporate events

Source: First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form for the acquisitions, the joint venture, the streams and the notes; share count and net cash per stockanalysis.com , 30 Jun 2026. The producing mines are 100%-owned except Los Gatos (70%, consolidated). The Wheaton stream on 25% of San Dimas gold-equivalent production is a permanent encumbrance charged inside the asset’s revenue line.

The structure reflects a company built and reshaped by deals: a Mexico-centred, mostly-100%-owned portfolio, one high-quality consolidated JV (Los Gatos), a permanent Wheaton stream over San Dimas gold, a convertible note in the capital stack, and a small held silver stream (Springpole) plus a pending disposal (Del Toro). The cap table is clean and net-cash; the complexity is in the streams, the JV partner and the recent dilution, not in any hidden leverage.

5. ESG & sustainability

Table 6. ESG snapshot

Source: First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form and the company’s Sustainability Report. Quantified safety and emissions figures are not reproduced here — a gap noted in Section 10.1.

First Majestic’s ESG story is a mix of credible operational initiatives and a real jurisdictional overhang. On the positive side, the Santa Elena LNG plant (24 MW, replacing diesel) is a concrete emissions-reduction project with a measurable attribute, filtered tailings are in place at several sites, and the community seed-investment programme at San Dimas and Santa Elena is a named, specific social programme rather than boilerplate. The overhang is Mexican security: organised-crime activity is a genuine operational and human risk in parts of the country and has already forced San Martín onto care and maintenance. Disclosure is GRI/SASB-aligned and reasonable; the dimension scores as adequate rather than strong, with the security environment the reason it is not higher.

6. Risks

Table 7. Risk register

Source: risk categories drawn from the First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form risk factors. Likelihood and impact ratings are the author’s assessment on a 1–5 scale, not disclosed figures.

Figure 6. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 7. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant. Ratings are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.

The register’s shape captures the stock in one picture: the two biggest risks — a silver mean-reversion and Mexico — sit in the top-right, and they compound. Because First Majestic is high-cost and high-beta, a falling silver price hurts it more than a lower-cost peer; because it is Mexico-concentrated, a policy or security shock has few places to hide; and because the shares are priced for spot, a de-rate can happen even if the assets do nothing wrong. The mitigant running through all of it is the net-cash balance sheet, which lets the company wait out a downturn — but it cannot offset the operating and price leverage that is the whole reason to own the stock.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 11 August 2026. Price deck: silver spot ~$66/oz, base $50/oz, conservative $34/oz; gold spot ~$4,395/oz, base $3,500/oz, conservative $2,900/oz. Discount rate 5% real, post-tax. Share price $18.85, ~493 m shares (10 Aug 2026). All asset values are attributable (Los Gatos at 70%).

First Majestic is a producer/operator, silver-led with material gold and base-metal contributions, so it is valued sum-of-the-parts: a discounted cash flow on each mine at the relevant metal deck (net of by-products and the San Dimas stream), a heavily-risked option value for Jerritt Canyon, risked development and resource-conversion credits, a corporate charge, and a bridge through net cash to equity. The conclusion: a base-case net asset value of $9.78 per share and a blended base-case fair value of $11.18 against an $18.85 share price — a P/NAV of 1.93× — with a value read of Overvalued (wide band). The market is capitalising First Majestic at roughly spot silver (~$66/oz); on that basis it is close to fair, but on any conservative through-cycle deck it is expensive, because the whole equity is a leveraged bet on silver holding near its highs.

7.1 Method selection

Table 8. Valuation method selection

Source: method-to-archetype mapping per the Metal Pilot valuation framework; the archetype classification is stated in Section 1 and the peer set in Section 2.8. The intrinsic method carries 55% (a single method, within the 55% cap); the two relative methods draw on different input families (asset value and cash flow), so no family exceeds 40%. Typical P/NAV and EV/EBITDA bands are conventions from sell-side mining primers, not current peer observations.

7.2 Net asset value

Each mine is modelled over its reserve-and-partial-conversion life at the base deck ($50/oz silver, $3,500/oz gold, base metals at reserve prices), net of by-product credits and the 25% Wheaton stream on San Dimas gold-equivalent output; tax-effected at ~35%, discounted at 5% real, and risked for Mexican jurisdiction. Jerritt Canyon is valued as a heavily-risked restart option; the Santa Elena discoveries, Los Gatos base-metal upside, First Mint and the Springpole stream are risked development and resource-conversion credits; a corporate G&A charge is deducted; and the balance sheet is bridged through net cash and reclamation.

Table 9. Net asset value build-up, base case (US$m, attributable)

Source: author’s model. Reserve and production inputs per Table 2; balance sheet per stockanalysis.com , 30 Jun 2026. ~35% blended tax; 5% real post-tax discount rate; mine lives ~6–12 years with risked resource conversion; Mexican jurisdiction risk applied. The per-mine production rates, jurisdiction and Jerritt risk factors, the resource and development credits, the corporate charge and the reclamation bridge are the author’s estimates, not company figures. This is a model output, not a disclosed value.

Figure 7. Net asset value build-up

Figure data: Table 9; the corporate G&A (−450) and reclamation (−300) lines are combined into one bar for readability. Equity net asset value of $4,820 m equates to $9.78 per share. Los Gatos is the single largest component — the Gatos acquisition anchors the base-case value.

Figure 8. NAV per share sensitivity — silver price × discount rate

Figure data: this analysis’ net-asset-value model, Table 9, holding gold at $3,500/oz and all other assumptions constant. Base case: $50/oz silver, 5% real post-tax discount rate. A ±10% silver move swings NAV/share by roughly ±30% — the signature of a high-cost, high-beta producer. The $18.85 share price sits above every cell in this grid, because gold is held at $3,500 (not spot) and silver is capped at +20% ($60, below spot $66); a full spot-metal scenario is in Table 11.

7.3 Relative valuation

Table 10. Relative valuation cross-checks

Source: author’s calculations. Market capitalisation, enterprise value and net cash per Table 1; reserves per Table 2; P/E, P/FCF and yield per stockanalysis.com , 11 Aug 2026. Base-deck EBITDA is estimated from guidance production at $50/oz silver and $3,500/oz gold plus base-metal by-products — an estimate, not guidance. Typical multiple ranges are conventions, not current peer observations.

The cross-checks say the same thing the NAV does: First Majestic is not cheap on a conservative basis — it is priced for spot. A 1.93× P/NAV is a full premium even by silver-miner standards; ~27× trailing earnings and ~9× EV/EBITDA look reasonable only because they use spot-elevated metal prices. The stock became “forward-cheap” precisely because silver spiked; strip the spike back to a through-cycle deck and the premium is plain — which is the honest counterpoint to the ~$24.75 consensus target.

7.4 Optionality not in the base case

Two exclusions dominate, and both point up. Spot silver ($66 vs the $50 base) is the larger — because First Majestic is high-beta, a spot-silver valuation lifts the NAV far more than a conservative deck (Table 11), which is exactly why the market pays up. And Jerritt Canyon restarting is the wildcard: the base case risks it heavily, but a successful, funded restart would add a permitted, tier-1-jurisdiction gold mine — an option the market cannot price until First Majestic commits. Santa Elena’s Navidad and Santo Niño discoveries and the First Mint retail-margin ramp are smaller, real, in-house options in the same category. None belongs in a base case; all depend on the silver price or on execution.

7.5 Scenario analysis

Table 11. Scenario valuation

Figure 9. Value per share by method and scenario

Source: author’s model, blending the sum-of-the-parts NAV (55%), a P/NAV multiple (25%) and an EV/EBITDA value (20%), each recomputed at the scenario deck. Current share price $18.85 (10 Aug 2026); market-implied read ~$64/oz flat silver (V19, below). These are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts. The very wide range — from ~$2.50 to ~$22 — is the honest signature of a high-cost, high-beta silver stock: the outcome is dominated by the silver price.

The bear column shows how far a high-cost producer can fall: at $34 silver, the mines barely clear cost and the NAV collapses to ~$1.80, with only the net cash and the EV/EBITDA method holding the blend off the floor. The bull column shows the flip side: at spot metals with a lower discount rate, the blend reaches ~$22, above today’s price. That the base case ($11.18) sits so far below the price, while the bull case sits above it, is the whole story — the market is trading First Majestic on the bull column.

7.6 Valuation conclusion

The blended fair value runs from ~$2.50 in the bear case to ~$22 on a spot deck, with a base case of $11.18 — and the $18.85 share price sits between the base and bull blends, much closer to the bull, at 1.93× a conservative net asset value. The value read is Overvalued (wide band) — the base-case implied return is roughly −41%, and the bear case sits ~87% below the price. But the word carries the same asterisk every high-beta silver name does: First Majestic is fairly valued if silver stays near $66; on any conservative, through-cycle silver deck it is expensive, because the shares have already re-rated for the spike, and its high cost base makes that re-rating more fragile than a lower-cost peer’s.

Market-implied read. Run backwards, the model returns the current $18.85 share price at a flat silver price of roughly $64/oz in perpetuity (gold at $3,500) — near today’s spot, and well above both silver’s five-year average (~$30) and the $50 base deck. In one sentence: the market is pricing silver to hold near its spike forever. That is the finding, and it leads the conclusion. It is not a claim that silver will fall — only that at $18.85 the reader is paying for spot silver as a permanent condition, with none of the discount that made this stock interesting at its lows.

Assumptions box. Valuation date 11 August 2026; balance-sheet date 30 June 2026; horizon spot fair value. Currency US$ (the NYSE trading currency); no FX conversion (the model and the price are both in US$). Price decks (real): silver spot $66, base $50, conservative $34; gold spot $4,395, base $3,500, conservative $2,900 — base anchored on the rounded-down representative trailing silver average (V26). Discount rate 5% real post-tax, sensitised at 4% and 7%. Share basis ~493 m (the $350 m 2031 converts are out of the money at ~$22.36 and add no dilution; they are bridged as debt at face). Cycle normalisation: the base deck sits above silver’s five-year average, so the target P/NAV is struck at a through-cycle 1.3×, not an upper-band multiple (V17). Peer basis: trailing, as-reported, net-cash. Weights: SOTP NAV 55% / P/NAV 25% / EV/EBITDA 20% (producer default). NAV provenance: author-built from reserves, production and unit costs. Primary value yardstick: P/NAV. The value read is anchored on the base case per the module convention, with spot metals and Jerritt as the upside.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 12. Near-term catalysts

Source: First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form and Q2 2026 disclosures for project timing and guidance. All timing is company guidance or uncertain (Jerritt), not a guarantee. The re-rating inferences are the author’s.

First Majestic’s catalysts are unusual in that the biggest one — the silver price — is entirely out of its hands, and most of the rest are incremental: a full year of Los Gatos, exploration success at Santa Elena, and the First Mint ramp keep the base healthy and could extend mine lives, but none is transformational on its own. The one genuinely large, company-controlled swing factor is a Jerritt Canyon restart — and that is years away, capital-hungry, and unproven. As with the stock as a whole, the operational catalysts maintain the base while the re-rating remains a bet on silver.

9. Rating & verdict

First Majestic is scored on the same nine dimensions every Metal Pilot company analysis uses, against the peer set declared in Section 2.8. As a producer/operator it takes the reference weighting: asset quality, cost position, reserves and life, balance sheet and capital allocation carry 15% each; growth, management, jurisdiction and ESG carry 6.25% each. No dimension is marked not-applicable.

Table 13. Scorecard rationale

Source: each row cites its evidence in this analysis; peer references are the set declared in Section 2.8.

Weighted average: (0.15 × 3) + (0.15 × 2) + (0.15 × 3) + (0.15 × 4) + (0.15 × 2) + (0.0625 × 4) + (0.0625 × 3) + (0.0625 × 2) + (0.0625 × 3) = 0.45 + 0.30 + 0.45 + 0.60 + 0.30 + 0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.125 + 0.1875 = 2.85/5 → ★★★, Average (2.9/5).

The two-axis verdict. Composite quality ★★★ (Average, 2.9/5); value read Overvalued (wide band) as of 11 August 2026; verdict: Full — the market already sees it: a high-cost, high-beta silver producer priced for spot silver holding near $66. First Majestic is a competently run, well-financed, genuinely silver-led producer whose value today is a direct function of the silver price — and whose higher cost base, Mexico concentration and dilutive record are exactly what the spot-priced valuation is overlooking.

The bull case is the silver thesis in its purest form: the most silver-led and highest-beta of the large producers, net cash, real in-house optionality (Los Gatos, Santa Elena, Jerritt, First Mint), into a structural silver bull market. The bear case is quality and price together: it is the highest-cost senior, the most Mexico-concentrated, with the weakest capital-allocation record — and after tripling off its lows it trades at ~1.9× a conservative net asset value, priced as though $66 silver is permanent.

The specific thing that tips it is the silver price, amplified by the cost base. Because First Majestic is high-cost, its NAV swings ~30% for every 10% move in silver — more than any lower-cost peer — so the stock is the sharpest instrument in the group in both directions. If you believe silver holds near $66 and climbs, First Majestic will outrun Pan American or Hecla; if you think $66 is a spike, its higher cost and thinner reserve life make the downside worse. Own it if you want maximum leverage to the silver price with a clean balance sheet — but do not mistake it for a cheap or a high-quality name: on any through-cycle deck it is expensive, and the quality is average.

To rank First Majestic against every listed silver and gold producer on the same nine dimensions — grade, cost, reserve life, growth stage and P/NAV — screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. First Majestic Silver 2025 Annual Information Form (year ended 31 December 2025) — the spine of this analysis: mineral reserves and resources (effective 31 December 2025, struck at $35/oz Ag and $3,100/oz Au), the mine descriptions, the Los Gatos acquisition and joint-venture terms, the San Dimas Wheaton stream, the 2031 convertible notes, the Del Toro sale, the Springpole stream, First Mint, and the risk factors and sustainability disclosures. Q2 2026 production, cost guidance and financial results via First Majestic Silver (reported 30 July 2026).

Technical reports. The NI 43-101 technical reports underlying the reserve and resource estimates for San Dimas, Santa Elena, La Encantada, Los Gatos and Jerritt Canyon, as summarised in the 2025 Annual Information Form.

Exchange and market data. stockanalysis.com for share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value, share count, beta (2.11), P/E, dividend and the 6-analyst consensus target of $24.75, as of 10–11 August 2026; the financials overview (Fiscal.ai / S&P Global) for the five-year statements, the by-mine revenue split and the balance sheet (30 June 2026).

Metal prices. Spot silver ~$66/oz and gold ~$4,395/oz on 11 August 2026 per daily price reporting; long-run context in the Silver — A Complete Market Guide .

Peer material. Silver-producer peers — Pan American Silver and Hecla Mining via the Metal Pilot analyses, plus Fresnillo, Coeur and Endeavour Silver per their latest guidance; the Metal Pilot silver dataset for the peer-screening basis.

Methodology. Durable structure (reserves, resources, grade, mine life, ownership, jurisdiction) is kept separate from the dated market layer (share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value, multiples, valuation) throughout. The data-as-of date is 11 August 2026; market data is as of the NYSE close on 10 August 2026; reserves and resources are effective 31 December 2025; production is for FY2025 with 2026 guidance as of 30 July 2026; balance-sheet figures are effective 30 June 2026. First Majestic reports on a calendar fiscal year in US dollars under IFRS, reports AgEq at reserve prices, and reports AISC on a consolidated payable-AgEq basis. Scorecard weights follow the producer/operator reference case, sum to 100%, and no dimension is not-applicable. The valuation is a sum-of-the-parts build reproducible from Table 9 and the assumptions box; the per-mine production rates, jurisdiction and Jerritt risk factors, the resource and development credits, the corporate charge and the reclamation bridge are author estimates, not company figures. Two figures from the standard set are not drawn: the asset map (drawn geometry the component library does not express — Section 2.1), and the by-metal revenue split (Figure 2) is an author estimate because First Majestic reports revenue by mine rather than by metal. One disclosure gap is noted rather than filled: quantified safety and emissions figures are not reproduced here. Update cadence: refreshed on each annual report and on material events — the next scheduled refresh is the FY2026 results and any Jerritt Canyon restart decision.

Provenance: First Majestic Silver Corp. — Annual Information Form — 2025.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 11 August 2026: the share price, market capitalisation, enterprise value, multiples and valuation read all move, and silver-mining equities are especially volatile (First Majestic is high-beta by design, with a beta above 2). Reserve, resource, study and forecast figures are estimates, prepared on the codes and bases stated beside each table, and any Jerritt Canyon restart is not an achieved result. The Quality × Value verdict is an analytical read, never an instruction to the reader. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from primary filings and reviewed, but readers should verify every number against the original documents before acting on it. The author holds no position in First Majestic Silver Corp. or in any company named here. Please do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser.