Seabridge Gold (SEA) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.9]

Analysis as of 24 August 2026. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz — the representative trailing average (COMEX 3-, 6- and 12-month averages of US$4,251.40, US$4,523.42 and US$4,381.95) on the fixed US$3,000–5,000 grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$3,000, bear US$3,500, base US$4,000, bull US$4,500, deep bull US$5,000) and the analyst consensus as a 0% cross-check — no spot price. Copper is held at US$6/lb. Market data: TSX close C$41.51 on 21 August 2026; USD/CAD 1.3760. Refreshed on each quarterly and annual report and on material events. Rating: ★★★★ (3.9/5) Solid / Undervalued — blended fair value C$146.56, implied +253.1%.

Seabridge Gold owns KSM in northwest British Columbia: 47.3 Moz of gold and 7,320 Mlb of copper in proven and probable reserves, permitted, and not yet financed. The thesis in one line: the shares price KSM as if its US$6.4 bn initial capital will never be raised, while even a heavily risked NAV that funds the whole build in new equity sits well above the price. Why now: the Secured Notes can be put back if project financing is not in place by 24 March 2027, a court has ordered further consultation on the permit that keeps KSM’s certificate alive, and a feasibility study is to start in 2027. To screen Seabridge against every gold developer on resource size, grade and jurisdiction, open the Metal Pilot gold dataset.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Seabridge Gold Inc. (TSX: SEA; NYSE: SA) is a Canadian gold-copper company. By archetype it is a developer in the gold sector, with copper a co-product — no production, no revenue, and a single study-stage asset that carries the whole valuation. Its one material asset is KSM, held 100% through KSM Mining ULC. Behind it sit the Iskut ground (Snip North and the Bronson Corridor), 3 Aces, Snowstorm and Michigan, and a gold stream on Courageous Lake, spun out to Valor Gold on 3 June 2026. The stated model is a joint venture on, or a sale of, KSM rather than a self-build.

Figure 1. Seabridge Gold in numbers

Figure data: Table 1.

Table 1. Seabridge Gold in numbers

Source: Seabridge’s Q2 2026 interim statements and MD&A, the FY2025 AIF and the KSM 2022 PFS technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR; share price per the TSX close of 21 Aug 2026; NAV, fair value and return per Section 7. Listed: Public (TSX: SEA; NYSE: SA).

Thesis in brief. Bull: KSM holds 47.3 Moz of gold and 7,320 Mlb of copper in reserves, it holds its environmental certificate and a Mines Act permit, and its study margin is wide. Even with the stage weight halving the plan and the whole build funded in new equity, NAV/share is more than twice the price. Bear: none of that value is reachable without a partner or a buyer; the build is about twice the market capitalisation, the notes carry a 2027 put, and the study costs are four years old. What tips it: a signed KSM partnership or financing package before the put date.

How to read this analysis: the statcards and Section 9 give the verdict; Sections 2 and 7 hold the evidence.

2. Assets & operations

For the market behind the deck, see the Gold — A Complete Market Guide. This section is about one asset, because KSM carries 79.7% of the enterprise NAV on its own and the rest of it is KSM’s resource beyond the plan.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Table 2. Asset base

Source: Seabridge Q2 2026 MD&A, FY2025 AIF and the KSM 2022 PFS technical report; reserves are proven and probable under NI 43-101, 2022 PFS, effective 8 Aug 2022. Listed: Public (TSX: SEA; NYSE: SA).

The concentration is total. KSM is the reserve base, the study, the permits and the funding problem; the exploration ground carries no study and is valued at nil in Section 7, and the Courageous Lake stream sits in the bridge at its C$11.7 m carrying value. Everything a reader needs to judge Seabridge is therefore in Section 2.3: the reserve, the study, the encumbrances and the permits of one project.

2.2 Revenue split

Seabridge has no revenue, so the two splits are the NAV by asset and the study’s revenue by product.

Figure 2. Enterprise NAV by asset (base case, %)

Figure data: Table 10 — risked KSM NPV C$18,226.6 m and resource conversion C$4,643.4 m of an enterprise NAV of C$22,869.9 m.

Figure 3. KSM PFS revenue by product, life of mine (%)

Figure data: KSM 2022 PFS technical report, table 22.5 — copper concentrate US$57,359 m, doré US$18,838 m, molybdenum US$2,188 m.

2.3 KSM

KSM sits in the Golden Triangle of northwest British Columbia and is owned 100% through KSM Mining ULC. The 2022 PFS plans open pits feeding a mill at 130,000 tpd, rising to 195,000 tpd in year 3, over a 33-year life after a six-year construction period. Reserves are 2,292 Mt at 0.64 g/t Au, 0.14% Cu and 2.2 g/t Ag — 47.3 Moz Au, 7,320 Mlb Cu, 160 Moz Ag and 385 Mlb Mo, proven and probable under NI 43-101, effective 8 August 2022. Recovered metal is 33.9 Moz Au and 5,872 Mlb Cu over the life of mine. The front of the plan is richer: years 1–7 average 1.413 Moz/yr Au and 250.8 Mlb/yr Cu, which is why the study pays back in 3.7 years after tax.

At the study prices (US$1,742/oz Au, US$3.53/lb Cu) the cash cost is US$35/oz in years 1–7 and US$275/oz over the life of mine, net of by-products, and US$601/oz all-in. Initial capital is US$6,432 m and sustaining capital US$3,210 m; the post-tax NPV at 5% is US$7,944 m with a 16.1% IRR, and the pre-tax NPV US$13,454 m. The study tables two other price cases: at US$1,850/oz and US$4.25/lb the post-tax NPV is US$9,814 m, at US$1,500/oz and US$3.00/lb US$5,238 m. Taxes take US$14,703 m over the life, and a reclamation and water-treatment fund US$1,273 m. Section 7 charges the capital still to spend: US$6,515 m with provincial sales tax, C$8,461 m at the study’s 0.77, less C$170.5 m prepaid to BC Hydro by 30 June 2026 — C$8,290.6 m, spent from an assumed start three years out. Payables are the study’s 96.5% for copper and 99.8% for doré gold; gold in concentrate, which the study does not state, is taken at 97%.

Encumbrances. A vendor 1% NSR (Newmont, capped at US$3.5 m) and a 1.5% NSR on East Mitchell (Pretium) are in the study. The 2022 Secured Note (US$225 m) converts at maturity into a 60% gross silver royalty, 75% if commercial production has not started by 24 March 2032; the 2023 Secured Note (US$150 m) converts into a 1% NSR. Both notes can be put back — US$232.5 m and US$155 m — if project financing is not in place by 24 March 2027.

Approvals. In hand: the environmental assessment certificate and the Mines Act permit. On 8 June 2026 the BC Supreme Court upheld the “substantially started” determination as reasonable but required further consultation; the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha (TSKLH) submissions to the Environmental Assessment Office were due 28 September 2026. Outstanding: the Mitchell-Treaty Tunnel construction permit, whose decision was delayed on 10 April 2026. First production has no date — there is no construction decision, and the feasibility study is to start in 2027. The asset risk is that consultation: the certificate’s permanence rests on the substantially-started finding.

2.4 Other assets

The Iskut ground holds the Bronson Corridor’s maiden inferred resource — 605.7 Mt at 0.47 g/t Au and 0.07% Cu for 9.2 Moz Au, 28.3 Moz Ag and 923 Mlb Cu — and the Snip North porphyry, with no resource yet. Courageous Lake left with Valor Gold on 3 June 2026 (distribution fair value C$211.8 m); Seabridge kept a gold stream bought for C$4.9 m. None carries a study.

2.5 Production, reserves & costs

Nothing is produced. The group profile is the PFS schedule: gold climbs to 2.0 Moz in year 3 and averages 1.413 Moz/yr over years 1–7, then 1.027 Moz/yr over the life, at 71.7% gold and 80.2% copper recovery. Beyond the plan, the March 2026 resource holds 95.5 Moz Au and 21 Blb Cu measured and indicated (inclusive of reserves) and 84 Moz Au and 43 Blb Cu inferred.

Figure 4. KSM PFS gold production, years 1–7 (Moz)

Figure data: KSM 2022 PFS technical report, table 22.5 — gold recovered (concentrate and doré) by year.

2.6 Peer positioning

The peer set — the developers Seabridge is compared with once their filings are in the source set — is four listed gold developers with one flagship each, none in a pending deal: NovaGold Resources (NYSE American: NG; Donlin Gold, Alaska), Skeena Resources (TSX: SKE; Eskay Creek, British Columbia), Perpetua Resources (Nasdaq: PPTA; Stibnite, Idaho) and Osisko Development (TSX: ODV; Cariboo, British Columbia). The basis is stage and jurisdiction, quality metrics only.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: Seabridge per its Q2 2026 MD&A; peers per their latest annual filings on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR. Peer reserve, cost and funding figures are not in this run’s source set (Section 10.1). Screen the full developer set at Metal Pilot.

KSM carries 47.3 Moz of gold in reserves and a build Seabridge cannot fund alone: its US$6,432 m initial capital is about twice the market capitalisation. Peer reserve, cost and funding figures are not in this run’s source set, so Section 9 rates each dimension on Seabridge’s own filed figures and ranks it against no peer.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 4. Five-year summary (C$ m unless stated; years ended 31 December)

Source: Seabridge audited FY2023–FY2025 and Q2 2026 interim statements; FY2022 from the FY2023 comparatives; EPS for FY2022–FY2025 derived as net loss ÷ weighted shares. FY2021 is not in this run’s source set (Section 10.1). Notes: (1) H1 2026 net income includes the gain on the Valor distribution and the Secured Note remeasurement. (2) Growth capex is the cash spent on mineral interests, property and equipment plus the BC Hydro prepayments (long-term receivables before FY2024); free cash flow is operating cash flow less that capex. (3) Net debt is the Secured Notes at fair value plus leases, less cash and short-term deposits (C$81.7 m at FY2022).

A developer’s accounts measure runway, not earnings: total cash spend — operating cash flow plus KSM capex and the BC Hydro prepayments — ran C$135–306 m a year over FY2022–FY2025, C$206.8 m in FY2025 against C$81.5 m of cash at 30 June 2026, and the losses track the note revaluations more than the spend. Read through the Commodity Financials — A Metrics Guide lens, the lines that matter are cash, the notes and the share count. Net income swings with the fair value of the Secured Notes — H1 2026 net income of C$110.9 m came from the Valor distribution gain and the note remeasurement, not from operations. Book equity was C$1,107.5 m at 30 June 2026, almost all of it the C$1,443.7 m of capitalised mineral interests.

Cost deck. The study cost is US$275/oz over the life of mine net of by-products (US$35/oz in years 1–7) at 0.64 g/t gold, on a 2022 cost basis not since escalated; the price-linked lines are the 60% gross silver royalty and the NSR royalties. The tax pool is C$748.7 m — C$524.8 m of mineral-interest basis plus C$223.9 m of non-capital losses expiring to 2045.

Net debt and liquidity. At 30 June 2026 cash was C$81.5 m (C$117.5 m at year-end) against Secured Notes of C$561.1 m at fair value and C$1.2 m of leases: net debt C$480.8 m. Working capital was C$53.6 m. In July 2026 a strategic investor provided an unsecured loan of up to US$100 m at 7%; the drawn amount at the as-of is not disclosed, and no covenants are. The puts total US$387.5 m if project financing is not in place by 24 March 2027. The rehabilitation provision is C$5.2 m, against C$22.0 m of reclamation deposits.

Hedge book. None — gold, copper and the US-dollar note exposure are unhedged.

Capital returns. No dividend and no buyback. The at-the-market programme sold 759,222 shares at C$48.15 in H1 2026 for C$35.8 m; diluted shares are up 36% since FY2022. That is the developer’s real capital-allocation record: each new share has to buy more KSM progress than it dilutes.

4. Management, strategy & structure

4.1 Management & governance

Rudi Fronk co-founded Seabridge in 1999 and is Chair and Chief Executive Officer — one person in both roles. Chris Reynolds, CFO since 2011, retired on 31 March 2026 and Greg Martin took the role, announced on 12 February 2026 — a finance change in the year a partner deal is the strategy. Women make up 40% of the directors and 37.5% of the independent directors in the 2026 slate. The AIF names the Audit Committee; the other committees are not in the source set. The only related-party payments are key-management compensation. The strength is continuity: the same chief executive has run one strategy for 27 years and taken KSM from a resource to a permitted reserve. The weakness is concentration of that authority in a combined Chair and CEO.

4.2 Strategy

The strategy has not moved: grow gold ounces per share, then sell or joint-venture KSM rather than build it. The 2026 objectives are preparing a KSM feasibility study for initiation in 2027, settling the substantially-started consultation and the tunnel permit, and advancing Iskut. No partner is named. The financing sub-strategies are consistent: at-the-market equity sold into strength, Secured Notes that defer royalty creation until maturity, and spin-outs — Valor Gold — that hand non-core assets to shareholders rather than sell them.

4.3 Ownership & structure

The FCMI group — Pan Atlantic Holdings (10,673,611 shares, 9.92%) and FCMI Parent Co. (4,972,625 shares, 4.62%), plus 588,624 shares held by Friedberg principals — is the largest holder. A strategic investor bought 1,640,000 shares at US$12.25 in February 2025 and lent up to US$100 m in July 2026. The most material transactions: the two Secured Notes (US$225 m in 2022, US$150 m in 2023) and the Valor Gold spin-out of Courageous Lake on 3 June 2026. KSM sits in KSM Mining ULC, wholly owned. Shares at 13 August 2026: 107,871,216 issued, plus 853,734 RSUs and 86,551 DSUs, for 108,811,501 fully converted.

5. ESG & sustainability

Safety is the measured strength: a total recordable incident frequency of 0.73 over 547,418 hours in 2025, against a 1.5 target. Climate reporting follows TCFD, with Scope 1, 2 and material Scope 3 disclosed in a Climate Strategy Report — more than most pre-production peers publish, though a developer’s emissions are small until a mine runs. The contested point is consultation: the TSKLH sought judicial review of the substantially-started determination, and the court, while upholding it, ordered further consultation — First Nations agreements are not in this run’s source set. Tailings and water treatment are carried in the study as a US$1,273 m reclamation and water-treatment fund over the life of mine.

6. Risks

Table 5. Risk register

Source: Seabridge Q2 2026 MD&A and interim statements and the 8 June and 10 April 2026 news releases; likelihood and impact are this analysis’s 1–5 scores, not disclosed figures.

Figure 5. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 5.

The two highest scores are one risk seen twice: KSM’s value reaches the shareholder only through a partner or a very large raise. Section 7 prices both — the 0.50× stage weight and the equity-funded gap — and runs the gold grid from US$3,000 to US$5,000. The permitting risks come next: a court has already upheld the substantially-started finding once, so the consultation is a delay risk more than a loss risk, and the tunnel permit gates construction rather than value. Cost inflation on a 2022 study is the quiet one; the +25% case in Section 7.5 sizes it.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 24 August 2026, in Canadian dollars. Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz, the representative of the trailing averages of the COMEX front-month close — US$4,251.40 (3-month), US$4,523.42 (6-month) and US$4,381.95 (12-month) to 21 August 2026 — snapped to the US$3,000–5,000 grid and leaning low on the 2026 spike; copper US$6/lb (averages US$6.37, US$6.13 and US$5.68) on the US$4–8 grid, held in every column; silver and molybdenum at the 2022 PFS prices. Discount rate 5% real after tax. Market data: TSX close C$41.51 on 21 August 2026; USD/CAD 1.3760 (Bank of Canada). No figure uses a spot price.

Seabridge is valued as a developer: KSM holds a 2022 prefeasibility study, its environmental assessment certificate and a Mines Act permit, but neither a construction decision nor its financing, and the company seeks a partner or a buyer. The method follows the How to Value Commodity Stocks developer set: a risked NAV built year by year on the study schedule, and an asset method on the reserves — two methods, because the developer set’s transaction comparables are not available and a company with no production has no disclosed fiscal-year cash flow to stand in for them.

Table 6. Load-bearing inputs — the figures the valuation turns on (full source register: Table 19)

Source: each row’s filing as cited — Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS technical report on SEDAR+; deck rows per the COMEX gold and copper front-month daily series and the Bank of Canada daily exchange rates.

7.1 Method selection

Table 7. Valuation method selection

Source: method set, anchors and weights per the valuation guide’s developer set, with transaction comps replaced as its substitution order sets out.

7.2 Net asset value

Table 8. Vehicle map

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

Table 9. Per-asset NPV build — base case (US$4,000/oz gold, US$6/lb copper, 5% real)

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

Table 10. NAV build-up and equity bridge (base case — US$4,000/oz, 5% real)

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

Figure 6. NAV build-up and equity bridge

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

Figure 7. NAV/share sensitivity — gold price × discount rate

Notes: (1) every cell is recomputed through the whole model — the 33-year KSM schedule, the tax pool, the conversion tier, the bridge and the KSM raise — never scaled; the checksum is the US$3,500/oz column at 5%, C$80.97, built as Tables 9 and 10 are: tax after the capital pool C$18,579.7 m (the pool — C$748.7 m opening plus the capital — is written off year by year, so tax in present value runs below 36.49% of operating cash flow), un-risked NPV C$31,655.5 m × 0.50 = C$15,827.7 m, conversion C$4,032.2 m, enterprise NAV C$19,860.0 m, bridge −C$763.2 m, equity NAV before financing C$19,096.7 m (C$175.50 a share), raise C$8,811.0 m for 235.8 m new shares, equity NAV after financing C$27,907.8 m on 344.7 m shares. (2) The rate rows re-discount every year of the printed schedule (Table 9) at 4%, 5% and 7%; copper is held at US$6/lb in every cell.

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

7.3 Relative valuation

Table 11. Target-multiple driver line (one line, applied to every multiple)

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

Table 12. Forward FCF build — average of PFS years 1–7, base deck

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

Table 13. Relative valuation — implied value per share (base case)

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

7.4 Further weighted methods

Table 14. EV/reserve build — KSM reserves at the developer anchor

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

7.5 Cross-checks

The cross-checks carry no weight; the full set is in the model’s out-file tables (Section 10.1). Calibration: at the study inputs the KSM row returns a post-tax NPV of US$8,209 m against the filed US$7,944 m, +3.3%. Stage: the adjacent FS-permitted weight of 0.60× lifts NAV/share to C$102.98. Schedule, costs and tax: construction one year later gives C$86.54; study costs and capital +25% give C$77.44; a tax rate five points higher gives C$84.39. Currency: USD/CAD −10% / +10% gives C$80.85 / C$98.55. Claims: no M&I conversion gives C$76.23; the Secured Notes at their put amounts give C$89.90. Copper: at US$4/lb and US$8/lb the blend is C$143.04 and C$150.07. Memo: the FCF-yield support on the study’s years 1–7 is C$349.07, un-risked and undiluted, at 0%; capital intensity is US$6,263 per annual ounce. Consensus and the own P/NAV history are n/d.

7.6 Scenarios & fair value

Table 15. Scenarios & fair value — inputs, value per method and the blend by grid price (C$/share)

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

Figure 8. Value per share by method and scenario

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

Conclusion. The read is Undervalued. The base-case blended fair value is C$146.56, an implied +253.1% from the C$41.51 share price. The range runs from C$121.38 (deep bear, US$3,000/oz at 9%) to C$156.64 (deep bull, US$5,000/oz); even the lowest blend sits above the price, so the band carries no wide-band qualifier. The two methods sit far apart — risked P/NAV C$94.19 against EV/reserve C$210.56 — because only the NAV carries the 0.50× stage weight and the C$8,811.0 m funding gap, 196.8% of the market capitalisation, raised in equity at C$37.36, while the reserve anchor prices 47.3 Moz of gold and 7,320 Mlb of copper as undeveloped reserves with no capital charged. No gold price solves the market-implied deck: with copper held at US$6/lb and the EV/reserve leg independent of the deck, the held blend stays above the price even at a gold price near zero. Rating-flip prices: none — no gold price moves the read out of Undervalued in either direction. The study’s first seven years at the deck carry C$5,596.5 m of free cash flow a year, unweighted, 125.0% of today’s C$4,477.7 m market capitalisation — once the mine is financed and built.

Table 16. Assumptions box

Source: this analysis — the Seabridge Gold valuation model on the filed inputs in Table 19, from Seabridge’s Q2 2026 and FY2025 filings and the KSM 2022 PFS NI 43-101 technical report on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 17. Near-term catalysts

Source: Seabridge Q2 2026 MD&A and the 8 June and 10 April 2026 news releases. Timing is company guidance or process-dependent.

8.1 Takeover optionality

A sale of KSM is the stated strategy, so the target case is the base case, not a tail. What makes it a target: a reserve of 47.3 Moz of gold and 7,320 Mlb of copper in British Columbia, with its certificate and Mines Act permit in hand, which widens the field from gold majors to copper producers. What disqualifies a deal: a US$6,432 m initial capital bill on 2022 costs, an open consultation on the substantially-started finding, a 60% gross silver royalty and a 1% NSR that travel with the asset, and a feasibility study not yet started. Acquirers: none is named — no filing or release in the source set links a company to KSM, and the strategic investor of February 2025 and July 2026 is unnamed. Effect on the verdict: none in the base case; a signed deal would replace the 0.50× stage weight with a price, which is why it is the catalyst in Section 9.

9. Rating & verdict

Seabridge is scored on its own filed figures on the developer weights: Dims 1, 3, 5 and 7 at 15% each, the other five at 8%. No dimension is N/A; Dim 2 is a study estimate and is labelled so.

Table 18. Scorecard rationale

Source: each row’s filing as cited — Seabridge’s Q2 2026 MD&A and statements, FY2025 AIF and the KSM 2022 PFS technical report. Rows by weight, dimension number within equal weights.

Σ(weight × stars) = 0.75 + 0.75 + 0.30 + 0.60 + 0.24 + 0.40 + 0.24 + 0.32 + 0.32 = 3.92/5 → 3.9/5, ★★★★ Solid.

The two-axis verdict. As of 24 August 2026, Seabridge is ★★★★ Solid / Undervalued — a re-rating candidate; the catalyst is a KSM partner or financing before the 24 March 2027 put date. The blended fair value is C$146.56, implied +253.1%, against NAV/share of C$89.71. No gold price solves the market-implied deck — the held blend stays above C$41.51 at every gold price. The target multiples moved +5% on the driver line: Dims 1 and 3 added 4% each and Dim 8 1%, Dim 5 took 4% off.

The quality score rests on the asset and its permits; the balance sheet is the one dimension that drags, and it is the one a transaction would fix. The bull and the bear read one fact. The bull sees a permitted reserve priced at less than half of a NAV that already pays for the whole build in new shares. The bear sees an equity that cannot fund that build, a put date, and study costs from 2022. What tips it is a counterparty for the capital — a partner, a buyer or a lender large enough for US$6.4 bn — and the date that forces the question is 24 March 2027. To compare Seabridge with every gold developer on the same nine dimensions, screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings (SEDAR+; SEC EDGAR, filer SA): the Q2 and Q1 2026 interim statements and MD&As; the FY2023–FY2025 audited statements; the FY2025 MD&A and AIF; the 2026 management information circular; the news releases of 12 February, 10 April, 8 June and 22 July 2026. Technical report: the KSM 2022 PFS and PEA NI 43-101 report, effective 8 August 2022. Market data: the TSX close of 21 August 2026; COMEX gold and copper front-month daily closes; the Bank of Canada daily USD/CAD.

Methodology. As-of 24 August 2026; market data at 21 August 2026; balance sheet at 30 June 2026; reserves at the 2022 PFS. The base deck is gold US$4,000/oz on the US$3,000–5,000 grid, each grid price run as a scenario, with copper held at US$6/lb; the analysis is refreshed on each quarterly and annual report and on material events. Peers are the four developers of Section 2.6, on stage and jurisdiction; weights are the developer set of Section 9. The model’s out-file tables — the P/NAV map, the deck and copper sensitivities and the cross-checks — are in claude/valuation-models/seabridge-gold-sea.out.md.

Re-run log. 14 October 2026: reworked to the current template on the KSM 2022 PFS schedule; the read moved from Modestly overvalued (very wide band) to Undervalued, implied +253.2% on a C$146.62 blend, because the US$4,000 deck on the PFS schedule puts the risked P/NAV leg alone about 127% above the price, even with the whole build funded in new equity; the reserve method adds magnitude, not direction. 14 October 2026, after the pre-launch review: the gold schedule’s years 1–7 scaled to the filed 9.89 Moz — NAV/share now C$89.71 (−C$0.10), blend C$146.56 (−C$0.06), implied +253.1%, read unchanged.

Figures omitted. The asset map is not built; Section 2.2 substitutes the NAV split and the study’s revenue by product for revenue splits a pre-revenue company does not have; the optional financial and safety figures are not built.

Data gaps. The FY2022 40-F (the FY2021 column); peer reserve and cost figures; an archived consensus capture and P/NAV history dated on or before 21 August 2026; the July 2026 loan’s drawn amount; First Nations agreements; the substantially-started consultation outcome. The register below is the full source list for the valuation; its load-bearing subset opens Section 7 as Table 6.

Table 19. Full source register for the valuation

Source: each row’s filing as cited — Seabridge’s filings on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR, the COMEX daily series and the Bank of Canada.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 24 August 2026: the price, the market capitalisation and the valuation read move, and for a developer they move with the gold price and news flow. Reserve, resource and study figures are estimates on the codes stated beside them; the NAV, the blend and the scenarios are this analysis’s model, not company figures. This report was prepared with AI assistance from primary filings; verify every number against the original documents. The author holds no position in Seabridge Gold or in any company named here.