Occidental Petroleum (OXY) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.7]

Analysis as of 12 August 2026. This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from Occidental’s fiscal-2025 results (10-K, year ended 31 December 2025), its Q1 and Q2 2026 results (Q2 reported 5 August 2026); market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of the 11 August 2026 close, and the commodity backdrop is as of early August 2026. Rating: ★★★★ (3.7/5), Solid — Fairly valued (wide band) → the deleveraging worked and the shares re-rated; on the blend the stock now trades close to a conservative fair value, with the net-asset-value and continued debt paydown the upside. Price deck (Table 3b oil rungs): bear WTI US$60/bbl, base US$70/bbl, bull US$90/bbl; Henry Hub base ~US$3.50/MMBtu; spot WTI ~US$78/bbl and Henry Hub ~US$2.66 carry as the run-rate cross-check; ~10% discount rate. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Occidental spent 2025 and early 2026 doing the one thing the market had waited six years to see: cutting the Anadarko-era debt down to size. The US$9.7 billion sale of its OxyChem chemicals business to Berkshire Hathaway (closed 2 January 2026) plus relentless free cash flow took principal debt from roughly US$23 billion at the start of 2025 to about US$13 billion, with net debt down to ~US$10.5 billion by mid-2026 — and reframed Oxy from a sprawling oil-and-chemicals conglomerate into a focused, Permian-led US producer with a Gulf of America deepwater business, an international cash engine, and the industry’s most credible carbon-management arm. The thesis in one line: a ~1.45-million-barrel-a-day, oil-weighted producer whose equity value compounds as debt and an 8% Berkshire preferred are retired — with a first-mover direct-air-capture option (Stratos) on top. The market has now largely rewarded that: the shares are up ~30% over the past year to ~US$59, and on a weighted blend of methods the stock sits close to a conservative fair value rather than at the discount it carried a year ago. To screen Occidental against every US upstream name on production, cost, reserve life and free-cash-flow yield, go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) is an international energy company headquartered in Houston, Texas, built around three businesses: oil & gas — the Permian Basin (Midland and Delaware, enlarged by the 2024 CrownRock deal), the Rockies/DJ Basin, the Gulf of America (deepwater), and international operations (Oman, the UAE and Algeria); OxyLow-Carbon Ventures, whose 1PointFive subsidiary is building the world’s largest direct-air-capture plant; and a midstream & marketing arm. It is a producer/operator by archetype — best valued sum-of-the-parts given the midstream and low-carbon pieces — and an energy producer by sector. Following the US$9.7 billion sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway (closed 2 January 2026), the chemicals segment is gone and the balance sheet is the story. In FY2025 Occidental produced ~1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOE/d) and held ~4.6 billion BOE of proved reserves. (BOE = barrel of oil equivalent, gas converted to oil at 6:1 by energy content; following the standard oil-field convention, MMBOE = million BOE and MBOE = thousand BOE.)

Figure 1. Occidental in numbers

Figure data: Occidental Q4/FY2025 results and Q1 2026 results ; market data and analyst consensus as of the 11 August 2026 close. Rating per Section 9.

Table 1. Occidental in numbers

Source: Occidental Q4/FY2025 results , Q1 2026 results and stockanalysis.com ; market data and consensus as of the 11 Aug 2026 close. EV = market cap + net debt (total debt ~US$14.6 bn less cash ~US$4.2 bn = ~US$10.5 bn); the ~US$8.3 bn Berkshire preferred is a separate senior claim (see §4.3), netted from equity in the valuation, and should be confirmed in the latest 10-Q. Cash-margin proxy is the domestic LOE row.

Thesis in brief. Bull: a large, oil-weighted, Permian-anchored producer whose equity value grows mechanically as ~US$3 billion of debt and an expensive 8% preferred are retired each year, throwing off a high-single-digit free-cash-flow yield, backed by Berkshire’s ~27% stake, with a genuinely first-mover carbon-capture option (Stratos) the market barely underwrites — and a net-asset value still a touch above the price. Bear: it is a price-taker on oil that still carries the most complex capital structure among the large-caps — ~US$13 billion of debt plus ~US$8.3 billion of 8% preferred plus 83.9 million Berkshire warrants — a mixed capital-allocation record (the 2019 Anadarko deal), international exposure its US peers avoid, and a first-year CEO; and after a ~30% one-year re-rating, the earnings multiples that carry the preferred sit at or above peer levels, so the blended read is no longer cheap. What tips it: whether continued deleveraging and the DAC option keep transferring value to the equity — versus a soft oil deck that leaves the leverage a drag. The full rating and its rationale are in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

Occidental is a leveraged play on oil, so the backdrop matters: after a soft 2025 (Q4 realized crude of just US$59/bbl), crude spiked on a geopolitical risk premium in mid-2026 before easing back to WTI ~US$78/bbl by August 2026 — still well above the ~US$70 the company plans to, while Henry Hub gas stayed weak near US$2.66/MMBtu. For the full picture of how crude is priced, who produces it and how it behaves across cycles, see the Oil — A Complete Market Guide ; the gas and NGL side is covered in the Natural Gas guide . This section spends its words on the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview & map

Unlike a single-basin pure-play, Occidental runs a genuinely diversified E&P footprint plus two adjacent businesses. The oil & gas portfolio spans the Permian (the core, roughly half of output), the Rockies/DJ Basin, the Gulf of America deepwater, and international operations in the Middle East and North Africa; alongside sit Midstream & Marketing (including a stake in Western Midstream) and OxyLow-Carbon Ventures / 1PointFive. The chemicals business (OxyChem) that long defined the “diversified” label was sold to Berkshire Hathaway for US$9.7 billion in January 2026 to accelerate deleveraging — so the portfolio today is a focused producer with a carbon-management option, not a conglomerate.

Table 2. Asset base at a glance, FY2025

Source: Occidental Q4/FY2025 results ; OxyChem sale . WI = working interest; PSC = production-sharing contract. Segment output split is approximate. All interests are publicly listed operated interest (NYSE: OXY).

The centre of gravity is US onshore — ~70% of the 2026 capital budget goes to US onshore — with the Gulf of America adding high-margin barrels and the international book adding contract-based cash flow that also carries the portfolio’s only meaningful jurisdiction risk (Section 6).

2.2 Revenue split — by product & by segment (rule A11)

Two cuts of the same base tell the concentration story. By product, Occidental is decisively an “oil company”: with realized crude near US$59/bbl and natural gas at just US$1.12/Mcf in Q4 2025, crude oil made up the large majority of upstream revenue (roughly ~80%), with NGLs and natural gas a small remainder — so cash flow tracks the oil price, not the ~50/50 volume mix. By segment, revenue is now dominated by the oil & gas business (the Permian first, then international, the Gulf of America and the Rockies), with Midstream & Marketing a modest contributor and Low-Carbon Ventures still pre-revenue.

Figure 2. FY2025 upstream revenue by product

Figure data: Occidental Q4/FY2025 results ; product shares derived from Q4 2025 realized prices (oil US$59.22/bbl, NGL US$16.68/bbl, gas US$1.12/Mcf) and the ~50%-oil volume mix. Shares are approximate.

Figure 3. Production by segment, FY2025

Figure data: Occidental Q4/FY2025 results ; segment shares of ~1.43 MMBOE/d are approximate.

Read together: Occidental’s cash flow lives and dies on the oil price, and it is concentrated in the Permian but with a more diversified geographic base — Gulf of America and international — than the pure-play Permian names. For a multi-region producer the honest picture is a by-segment one, not a single-mine split.

2.3 The Permian — the core (post-CrownRock)

The Permian is the thesis. Occidental is one of the basin’s largest operators across both the Midland and Delaware sub-basins, a position deepened by the ~US$12 billion CrownRock acquisition (closed August 2024), which added premium Midland Basin inventory and ~170,000 BOE/d. The Permian supplies roughly half of group production at the lowest unit cost in the portfolio — domestic lease operating cost of US$7.85/BOE in Q1 2026, ~5% below guidance — and it is where Occidental’s enhanced-oil-recovery and CO₂ expertise (the foundation of its low-carbon strategy) originated. This is the low-cost, high-return heart of the company; the key asset-level risk is simply the oil price, since the geology and the operating machine are proven.

2.4 Gulf of America — the deepwater leg

The Gulf of America (formerly Gulf of Mexico) is Occidental’s high-margin offshore business: fewer, larger wells producing long-life, oil-weighted barrels at strong netbacks, with a portfolio of subsea tiebacks and development projects that extend the production plateau. It is a genuine second engine rather than a fringe, and it diversifies the company away from short-cycle shale decline. Its asset-level risks are the operational and regulatory ones specific to deepwater — well integrity, hurricane exposure and federal permitting — offset by high per-barrel margins.

2.5 International — the cash engine (Oman, UAE, Algeria)

Occidental’s international operations — principally Oman, the UAE (the Al Hosn and Shah gas developments) and Algeria — generate steady, contract-based cash flow under production-sharing and concession agreements, and are a meaningful share of production. They diversify the barrel geographically and are typically funded within their own cash flow. The trade-off, and the portfolio’s most distinctive risk versus the US pure-plays, is geopolitical and contract exposure: fiscal terms, renewal risk and regional stability sit outside Occidental’s control (Section 6).

2.6 Low-Carbon Ventures & the OxyChem exit

Occidental’s most differentiated asset is not a barrel — it is 1PointFive, its low-carbon subsidiary building Stratos, the world’s largest direct-air-capture (DAC) facility, in Ector County, Texas, designed to pull CO₂ directly from the atmosphere for permanent storage or use, with initial operations targeted for 2026. Combined with decades of CO₂ enhanced-oil-recovery know-how, Stratos gives Occidental a first-mover platform to monetize the 45Q tax credit, carbon-removal sales, and future DAC hubs — a genuine, if unproven, growth option most producers cannot replicate. The counter-development is the US$9.7 billion sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway (January 2026): a high-quality, cash-generative chemicals business sold to speed deleveraging — a deliberate simplification that trades diversified earnings for a cleaner balance sheet. Both moves push Occidental toward a “low-cost producer plus carbon-management” identity.

2.7 Other assets & the development pipeline

Beyond the producing regions, Occidental runs Midstream & Marketing interests — gathering, processing, marketing, and a stake in Western Midstream (WES) — that add sum-of-the-parts value and optimize realizations. The “pipeline” for a producer of this maturity is its drilling inventory (a deep Permian running room extended by CrownRock) plus the DAC development hub and Gulf of America projects. Portfolio high-grading — the OxyChem sale being the largest example — is itself a lever: sell mature or non-core assets, retire debt and preferred, and let per-share value compound. None of the core program is speculative; it is contracted, self-funded running room, with the DAC business the one genuinely optional (and potentially transformational) piece.

2.8 Production, reserves & costs (consolidated)

At the group level, Occidental produced ~1,434 MBOE/d in FY2025 (~50% oil), exiting the year at 1,481 MBOE/d in Q4 and guiding to ~1,450 MBOE/d for 2026 (~1% growth) on an 8%-lower capital budget of US$5.5–5.9 billion. Proved reserves stood at 4.6 billion BOE at year-end 2025, with a 98% all-in and 107% organic reserve-replacement ratio and a proved reserve life of roughly 9 years, extended by the undeveloped inventory. The cost structure is competitive — domestic LOE of US$7.85/BOE — though the all-in corporate breakeven carries the added weight of interest and the 8% preferred dividend (Section 3), which is precisely what the deleveraging is designed to lift. FY2025’s flat revenue (US$22.1 billion, roughly level with 2024) reflects a soft price tape offset by CrownRock volumes; the truer forward read is the ~1.45 MMBOE/d, lower-capex, faster-deleveraging 2026 profile.

Figure 4. Average production by fiscal year, FY2021–FY2025

Chart source: Occidental Q4/FY2025 results and prior-year filings; average annual production (approximate). Realized crude peaked in 2022 and softened to ~US$59/bbl by Q4 2025 (§2.8) — that second series is carried in the prose rather than overlaid (rule A13).

2.9 Peer positioning (rule A12)

Occidental’s natural peer set is the large-cap US oil-weighted independents: ConocoPhillips (COP), EOG Resources (EOG), Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Devon Energy (DVN). Every “vs. peers” claim in this analysis — each scorecard star, the cost read, the valuation multiples in Section 7 — uses that set. (Integrated majors ExxonMobil and Chevron are a scale reference, not direct comparables.)

Table 3. Quality-metric peer positioning (approximate, mid-2026)

Source: company filings and market data, mid-2026; figures are approximate and should be refreshed at publish — screen the live upstream peer set on Metal Pilot. Occidental’s ~US$8.3 bn 8% preferred is an additional senior claim on top of the net-debt/EBITDA shown.

Where Occidental sits: second on scale behind ConocoPhillips, competitive on operating cost, and uniquely optioned on carbon — but carrying the most complex and most levered capital structure in the group (net debt plus the 8% preferred plus the Berkshire warrants), and with international exposure the others lack. That single fact — elite assets and a differentiated carbon platform, weighed against a heavy capital structure — is the crux of the scorecard.

3. Financials & balance sheet

FY2025 was a study in why the balance sheet, not the income statement, is Occidental’s swing factor. Revenue was US$22,075 million (roughly flat on 2024 as CrownRock volumes offset a soft price tape), net income was US$2,107 million, and free cash flow was US$4,105 million. Q4 alone printed a small GAAP net loss of US$68 million on a US$59 oil price, with adjusted income of US$315 million (US$0.31/share) — the low-price stress test. But the momentum is in the deleveraging and it is dramatic: Q1 2026 delivered US$1.7 billion of free cash flow (up 52% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of US$1.06, funding a debt paydown that is the whole equity story.

Table 4. Five-year financial summary

Source: revenue, net income and free cash flow FY2021–FY2025 from stockanalysis.com ; FY2023–25 are on a continuing-operations basis reflecting the OxyChem divestiture (closed Jan 2026), so pre-2023 figures include the chemicals business and are not perfectly comparable across the boundary. Principal debt is the year-end 2025 figure reported at the Q4/FY2025 release ; adjusted EPS and dividend are FY2025. “—” = not shown on a consistent basis within the FY2025 filing window. FY2022 was an exceptional high-price year.

The balance sheet is the watch item and the opportunity in one. Occidental cut principal debt from ~US$23 billion at the start of 2025 to about US$13 billion, and with a larger cash balance carried net debt of ~US$10.5 billion by mid-2026 — funded by the US$9.7 billion OxyChem sale and strong free cash flow, essentially at the stated US$10 billion target. Sitting above the common equity is the more expensive layer: the ~US$8.3 billion of 8% cumulative perpetual preferred stock held by Berkshire (from the 2019 Anadarko financing), which costs ~US$670 million a year in dividends and which Occidental must begin redeeming at 105% of par once common shareholder distributions exceed US$4/share annually — so the preferred, too, is on a glide path down as returns grow. Liquidity is ample. On capital returns, the dividend is US$1.12/share (~1.9% yield) — deliberately modest, because the priority is debt and preferred, with buybacks resuming as the target is reached.

Hedge & treasury posture. Occidental runs a largely unhedged production book by policy — it retains full exposure to the oil price rather than systematically capping it — so the income statement is a direct read on crude, and the balance-sheet repair (not a hedge book) is the downside cushion. There is floating-rate exposure that falls as debt is retired and termed out. Readers should confirm any specific hedge positions and the exact preferred balance in the latest 10-Q.

Figure 5. Free cash flow by fiscal year, FY2021–FY2025

Chart source: Occidental Q4/FY2025 results , Q1 2026 results and prior filings. Revenue and the principal-debt trajectory (falling from ~US$23 bn to ~US$13 bn) are read from Table 4 and §3 rather than overlaid as additional series (rule A13).

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

Occidental is now led by President & CEO Richard Jackson, who stepped up from Chief Operating Officer on 1 June 2026 and joined the board, framing his priorities as “execution and delivery” and lowering base decline rates. He succeeds Vicki Hollub, who retired after 10 years as CEO and 45 years at the company — the architect of the 2019 Anadarko acquisition, the Berkshire relationship, and the pivot to low-carbon — in an orderly, internal succession. The finance and operating benches are experienced, and the strategy is continuous rather than a reset. The governance backdrop a reader must weigh is unusually specific: Berkshire Hathaway owns ~27% of the common stock (with regulatory clearance to go higher), ~US$8.4 billion of 8% preferred, and warrants for 83.86 million shares at US$59.62 — a supportive, long-term anchor shareholder that is also a concentration of influence and a dilution overhang. Every leadership seat here is filled by a named, credentialed executive — but the twin watch items are a brand-new CEO and the Berkshire dependence baked into the capital structure.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The strategy is now sharply focused: be a low-cost, oil-weighted US producer, deleverage aggressively, and build an optional carbon-management business on top. The capital-allocation stack is explicit and debt-first — fund a disciplined US$5.5–5.9 billion program (down 8%) to hold production roughly flat at ~1.45 MMBOE/d, drive principal debt to US$10 billion, redeem the 8% preferred as distributions rise, and only then lean into buybacks and dividend growth. The M&A methodology has swung from expansion (Anadarko 2019, CrownRock 2024) to simplification — the US$9.7 billion OxyChem sale being the defining recent move, trading diversified earnings for balance-sheet strength. Forward priorities are concrete: cost and capital efficiency, lower base decline, Stratos start-up, and the steady retirement of the debt-and-preferred stack.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

The defining structural feature is the Berkshire Hathaway relationship, which runs through the whole capital structure. It began with Berkshire’s US$10 billion investment in 8% cumulative perpetual preferred plus warrants for 80 million shares (later adjusted to 83,858,849 shares at US$59.624) to help fund the ~US$55 billion Anadarko Petroleum acquisition in 2019. Berkshire then built a ~27% common stake — the largest holder — and in January 2026 acquired OxyChem for US$9.7 billion, Buffett’s biggest deal in three years. The preferred (~US$8.4 billion outstanding) is being redeemed at 105% of par as Occidental’s shareholder distributions grow; the warrants sit near the money at the current share price and represent a dilution overhang; and CrownRock (2024) added Midland Basin scale funded partly with debt now being repaid. The one structural item a valuer must net out is the preferred and the potential warrant dilution, both of which sit ahead of or alongside the common in the equity bridge (Section 7).

5. ESG & sustainability

For an oil and gas producer, Occidental positions itself as the carbon-management leader among E&Ps, and the claim has substance. Through 1PointFive, it is bringing Stratos — designed as the world’s largest direct-air-capture plant — toward start-up in 2026, converting decades of CO₂ enhanced-oil-recovery expertise into a platform for permanent carbon removal, 45Q tax-credit monetization, and carbon-removal sales to corporate buyers. This is a genuinely differentiated, above-median environmental strategy: few producers can credibly claim a net-carbon-removal business line. The governance and disclosure agenda is established, with net-zero ambitions across scopes and a long CO₂-handling track record. The honest limitations are two: this remains a hydrocarbon producer whose product is burned, so Scope 3 and transition risk cap the ceiling; and the DAC economics are unproven at scale — Stratos must demonstrate cost and throughput before the option is worth a hard number. Presented even-handedly, Occidental’s ESG profile is a real strength on ambition and capability, tempered by execution risk on the very projects that differentiate it.

6. Risks

Table 5. Risk register

Source: Occidental Q4/FY2025 results and Q1 2026 disclosures; this analysis. Likelihood/impact are the author’s assessment.

The through-line: Occidental has elite assets and a differentiated carbon platform, but it cannot engineer away price risk, and it carries the group’s heaviest capital structure. Its biggest single vulnerability is a sustained drop in oil; its most Occidental-specific exposure is the debt-plus-preferred-plus-warrants stack, which is simultaneously the risk and the opportunity, since retiring it transfers value to the common; and its distinctive exposures — international contracts and unproven DAC economics — are ones the pure-play Permian names simply do not have. Presented even-handedly, the mitigants are real and improving: a low-cost core, a US$10 billion debt target within reach, and an anchor shareholder aligned for the long term.

Figure 6. Risk heat-map

Figure data: this analysis; risks per the register above.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 12 August 2026, in US$. Horizon: spot fair value. Deck (Table 3b oil rungs): bear WTI US$60/bbl, base US$70/bbl, bull US$90/bbl; Henry Hub base ~US$3.50/MMBtu; spot WTI ~US$78/bbl and Henry Hub ~US$2.66 carry as the run-rate cross-check. Discount rate ~10% (large oil-weighted producer with above-peer leverage and international exposure). Market data: US$59.06 (11 Aug 2026 close), ~1,000 m shares, net debt ~US$10.5 bn, plus the ~US$8.3 bn 8% preferred.

This section applies the Metal Pilot valuation module for an E&P producer (oil & gas) archetype valued sum-of-the-parts (E&P + midstream + a pre-revenue low-carbon option), with each weighted method taken to a value per share (rule V11): a NAV/DCF on the life-of-reserves cash flows (45%), EV/EBITDAX at peer median (30%) and EV per flowing BOE/d (25%). Because Occidental carries the Berkshire preferred, every equity bridge subtracts the ~US$8.3 bn preferred as a senior claim ahead of the common (the 83.9 m warrants at US$59.62 sit near the money and are noted, not netted). The headline conclusion: a blended base-case fair value of ~US$54/share against US$59.06 — about −9%, inside a US$39–75 bear-to-bull range → Fairly valued (wide band). The NAV alone (~US$61) sits a touch above the price, but the two earnings-based methods sit below it, because the heavy capital structure leaves less enterprise value for the common than for a lower-leverage peer.

7.1 Method selection

The E&P-producer default weight set is used (NAV/DCF 45% / EV·EBITDAX 30% / EV per flowing BOE/d 25%). Trailing P/E is deliberately not an anchor — reported EPS is inflated by the OxyChem sale gain. The single feature that shapes every method is the preferred: it is a senior claim subtracted in each equity bridge, which is why Occidental’s common is worth less per unit of EBITDA or per flowing barrel than a peer with the same assets and no preferred.

Table 6. Valuation method selection & weights

Source: this analysis, per the Metal Pilot valuation module (E&P-producer default weights, rule V18). Input-family exposure: intrinsic 45% (single method, within the 55% cap), cash-flow 30%, asset & capacity 25% — no family above 50%. The ~US$8.3 bn Berkshire preferred is subtracted from equity in every weighted method.

7.2 Net asset value (NAV / DCF)

At the base deck (~US$70/bbl WTI, ~US$3.50 gas, 10% discount), Occidental’s ~US$10–11 billion of mid-cycle operating cash flow, sustained by the maintenance-plus-modest-growth program over the reserve life and then declining, discounts to an enterprise NAV in the low-to-mid US$80-billions. Bridging to equity:

Table 7. NAV build-up (base case: ~US$70/bbl WTI, 10% discount)

Source: this analysis; reserves and production per Occidental Q4/FY2025 results ; net debt and share count per stockanalysis.com , 11 Aug 2026. A simplified corporate FCF model; component PVs are illustrative and highly deck-sensitive. The continued debt paydown (net debt ~US$12 bn → ~US$10.5 bn) lifts equity NAV even at a flat deck. Warrant dilution (83.9 m shares at US$59.62) is not netted since the strike sits essentially at the price; it becomes dilutive above ~US$60.

Figure 7. NAV build-up waterfall

Figure data: Table 7, this analysis.

A base-case NAV of ~US$61/share against a US$59.06 price is modestly above the price — and the key dynamic is that as debt and the preferred are retired, enterprise value transfers to the common even at a flat oil price. The whole answer, though, turns on the oil price and the discount rate.

Table 8. NAV/share sensitivity — WTI × discount rate

Source: this analysis; NAV/share in US$, base-case model. Price columns are the fixed WTI grid (US$60–US$100 by US$10; Table 3b of the valuation playbook). A ±US$10/bbl move in WTI shifts NAV/share by roughly ±US$10 — the swing that dominates every other variable, amplified by the leverage.

Figure 8. NAV/share sensitivity — WTI × discount rate

Figure data: Table 8, this analysis. Base US$70/bbl at 10% = US$61/share; the US$70 grid column carries the base outline.

7.3 Relative valuation

Both relative methods convert to a value per share (rule V11), applying a justified target multiple to Occidental’s own metric and then subtracting both net debt and the ~US$8.3 bn preferred to reach common equity. At US$59.06 and ~1,000 million shares, market cap is ~US$59.0 billion and enterprise value ~US$69.5 billion. EV/EBITDAX method: on ~US$11.5 billion of mid-cycle EBITDA that is ~6.0× (Occidental trades a touch above the ~5.5× peer band); applying a ~5.75× peer-median multiple implies an EV of ~US$66.1 billion, less ~US$10.5 bn net debt and ~US$8.3 bn preferred = ~US$47/share. EV per flowing BOE/d: Occidental trades at ~US$48,500/BOE/d; at the ~US$47,000 peer median on ~1.43 MMBOE/d the implied EV is ~US$67.4 billion, less the same US$18.8 bn of senior claims = ~US$49/share. Both land below the NAV (~US$61) and the price — the preferred is the wedge: it is a senior claim that leaves less enterprise value for the common than a peer with the same assets and no preferred.

Table 9. Relative valuation vs. the peer set (approximate, 11 Aug 2026)

Source: company filings and market data as of 11 Aug 2026 (OXY per stockanalysis.com ); peer multiples are approximate. Occidental’s ~US$8.3 bn 8% preferred is an additional senior claim on top of the net-debt/EBITDA shown, and is subtracted in the value-per-share conversions above.

7.4 Cross-checks

These carry no weight in the blend (rule V12); they test whether the model or the market is wrong. Standardized-measure floor: the after-tax PV-10 of proved reserves at low SEC prices is a conservative floor the base-deck NAV sensibly exceeds. Analyst consensus: the Street sits at ~US$66.35 (Buy, 24 analysts), about +12% above the price and well above this analysis’ ~US$54 base blend — the Street underwrites near-strip oil (~US$78), continued deleveraging and a DAC multiple, where this model uses a conservative US$70 deck and weights the preferred-penalised earnings multiples. Market-implied deck (rule V19): reverse-solving the NAV, the US$59.06 price corresponds to a flat long-term WTI of ~US$68/bbl — modestly below the US$70 base and ~US$10 under the ~US$78 spot, i.e. the equity discounts a conservative deck, so the deleveraging optionality is a source of upside the price does not fully carry.

7.5 Scenario analysis

Every weighted method is recomputed in three coherent worlds — each WTI deck a rung of the fixed grid (rule V26) — so the blend can be struck per scenario (rule V14).

Table 10. Scenario assumptions and per-method value per share

Source: this analysis; each weighted method recomputed under each scenario’s deck, discount rate and multiple, less net debt and the preferred. Illustrative scenarios, not forecasts. The three WTI decks are the US$60 / US$70 / US$90 rungs of the fixed oil grid (Table 3b of the valuation playbook). The NAV method carries the widest range — the oil-price leverage a producer has by construction, amplified here by the fixed senior claims.

7.6 Fair value & conclusion

Each weighted method’s value per share is multiplied by its weight and summed to a blended fair value — once per scenario. The blend reproduces on a calculator from the values and weights below.

Table 11. Fair-value blend

Source: this analysis; E&P-producer default weights (rule V18). All figures in US dollars; horizon: spot fair value. Cross-checks carried at 0% weight and discussed in 7.4: standardized-measure floor, analyst consensus and the market-implied deck (V19). Base blend = 0.45 × US$61.20 + 0.30 × US$47.33 + 0.25 × US$48.60 = US$53.89. Adding the ~1.9% dividend yield, the implied total return is about −7% — reported, not rated.

Figure 9. Value per share by method and scenario

Figure data: Table 11. Shading ranks every cell within this figure’s own US$28.45–US$89.20 range; the base-case blend carries the outline. Current share price US$59.06 (11 Aug 2026). The NAV column runs above the two earnings methods in every world — the SOTP captures midstream and the DAC option the multiples cannot, while the preferred pulls the earnings methods down.

Conclusion. The blended fair value is US$53.89 in the base case, inside a US$39.05–US$75.44 bear-to-bull range, against a US$59.06 share price — an implied −8.8%. The value read is Fairly valued (wide band): the base sits inside the ±10% band, and the bear case is 34% below the price — wider than the 25% threshold, so the qualifier travels with the read everywhere it appears. The change from a year ago is the price: the deleveraging worked, the shares re-rated ~30%, and what was a discount is now roughly fair value on the blend. The NAV (~US$61) still sits a touch above the price and the deleveraging keeps transferring enterprise value to the common, but the two earnings-based methods — dragged below the price by the ~US$8.3 bn preferred — say the common is no longer cheap on current cash flow. The market-implied read (7.4) says the price discounts only ~US$68/bbl WTI; sell-side consensus of US$66.35 sits above even a constructive reading of this model. This analysis is deliberately more conservative than the Street on the deck and on the DAC multiple. Assumptions box: valuation date 12 August 2026; market data as of the 11 August 2026 close (US$59.06, ~1,000 m shares, ~US$59.0 bn market cap, ~US$10.5 bn net debt, ~US$8.3 bn 8% preferred netted from equity); horizon spot fair value; currency US$; decks WTI bear US$60 / base US$70 / bull US$90 (Table 3b rungs), gas ~US$3.50; ~10% discount (8%/12% in the bull/bear); weights NAV 45% / EV-EBITDAX 30% / EV-flowing 25%; mid-cycle EBITDA ~US$11.5 bn is an author estimate; 83.9 m warrants at US$59.62 near the money, noted not netted; NAV from a simplified corporate FCF model pending a full per-region build. To run the same NAV and multiples across every US upstream name, screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Occidental’s forward upside over the next two to three years is mostly already in motion — the job is to finish the balance-sheet repair and prove the carbon business, not to chase volume. The most material positives are structural, not speculative.

Table 12. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Source: Occidental Q1 2026 results , FY2025 filings and 1PointFive/Stratos guidance ; timing reflects company guidance and is not guaranteed.

The common thread is balance-sheet-driven catalysts: Occidental does not need higher oil to deleverage, redeem the preferred or start Stratos — a firm tape simply accelerates all three and brings forward buybacks. The swing factor is execution and the oil price, not access to capital.

9. Rating & verdict

Occidental is scored on the Metal Pilot Company Scorecard — the same nine dimensions, on the same ★1–5 scale, that every US upstream name in the series is scored on, so the peers are directly comparable. Each star is relative to the large-cap US oil-weighted E&P peer set and substantiated below.

Table 13. The Occidental scorecard

Source: the Metal Pilot Company Scorecard; evidence in Sections 2–7. Peer basis: large-cap US oil-weighted independent E&Ps (COP, EOG, FANG, DVN).

Weighted average = 0.15 × (4 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 3) + 0.0625 × (4 + 4 + 4 + 4) = 2.70 + 1.00 = 3.70/5 → rounds to the published ★★★★ (3.7), Solid.

The two-axis verdict. Quality Solid (★★★★, 3.7/5) × Value Fairly valued (wide band) → the deleveraging worked and the shares re-rated; a top-tier operator now trading near a conservative fair value, with continued debt paydown, the net-asset value and DAC optionality the upside. The quality axis is genuinely high on the assets and the carbon platform — a large, oil-weighted Permian core, a high-margin Gulf of America leg, and a first-mover DAC option no peer can match — but it is held out of the high-quality band by the two ★★★ dimensions that define Occidental’s story: the heaviest capital structure among the large-caps (debt plus an 8% preferred plus warrants) and a capital-allocation record still shadowed by Anadarko. The value axis has caught up to the assets: at ~US$59.06 the stock trades a touch below its ~US$61 NAV but at or above peers on the earnings multiples that carry the preferred, so the blend reads roughly fair (−9%) rather than the discount it showed a year ago — tilting undervalued only if crude holds near the ~US$78 strip and the deleveraging keeps transferring value to the common, and modestly overvalued on a sub-US$65 long-term price. The thing that tips the verdict is not the assets — those are settled — but the oil price and the pace of the paydown. This is an analytical read, not a recommendation.

For how Occidental compares head-to-head with the four other largest US upstream oil producers — EOG, Diamondback, Devon and Ovintiv — on one shared construction, see US Large-Cap Upstream Oil Producers Compared (2026) .

To go from this single-name view to the whole peer group — screening every US upstream E&P on production, cost, reserve life, net debt and free-cash-flow yield — explore Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company fundamentals, structure, management, reserves and per-segment detail are from Occidental Petroleum Corporation — 10-K / FY2025 results — 2025 (fiscal year ended 31 December 2025), the Q4/FY2025 results release and the Q1 2026 results release, plus the OxyChem sale disclosures (announced October 2025, closed 2 January 2026) and 1PointFive/Stratos guidance. Market data (share price US$59.06, ~1,000 million shares, market cap ~US$59.0 billion, net debt ~US$10.5 billion) and analyst figures (24-analyst consensus target ~US$66.35, Buy) are as of the 11 August 2026 close per stockanalysis.com ; the commodity backdrop (WTI ~US$78, Henry Hub ~US$2.66) is as of early August 2026. Enterprise value and the value-per-share methods are derived from those inputs; the valuation blends three value-per-share methods — a sum-of-the-parts NAV (45%), EV/EBITDAX (30%) and EV per flowing BOE/d (25%), each subtracting the ~US$8.3 bn preferred — reproducible from Tables 6–11, with the NAV a simplified corporate free-cash-flow model pending a full per-region build. The exact current balance of the Berkshire preferred (used at ~US$8.3 billion) should be confirmed in the latest 10-Q. Peer figures are approximate and flagged for refresh. The asset-map figure is omitted deliberately — a multi-region footprint plus a single DAC site does not render as a legible proportional-symbol map, so the segment split in §2.2 carries the geography. Data as of 12 August 2026; refreshed on each annual report and on material events. Provenance: Occidental Petroleum Corporation — 10-K Filing — 2025.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed advisor. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 12 August 2026 — share prices, multiples, analyst targets and the valuation read move, and figures are estimates as of the stated date. The two-axis verdict is an analytical read of quality and price, not a personal buy or sell instruction. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from Occidental’s filings and market data and reviewed, but readers should verify before acting. The author holds no position in Occidental Petroleum as of the date of writing.