OR Royalties (OR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [4.0]

Analysis as of 12 August 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close). This is a point-in-time snapshot, not an evergreen guide. Fundamentals are from OR Royalties’ fiscal-2025 Annual Report (Annual Information Form, audited financial statements and MD&A, year ended 31 December 2025), its H1 2026 results and its 2025 Asset Handbook ; market data (share price, market cap, multiples, analyst targets) is as of the 11 Aug 2026 close and will move. Rating: ★★★★, Solid — Fairly valued (base case, wide band); modestly undervalued if the 2026 ramps land → a re-rating candidate. Price deck used in the valuation (fixed gold grid, Table 3b): bear US$3,000/oz, base US$4,000/oz, bull US$5,000/oz — the five US$500 rungs US$3,000–US$5,000; spot ~US$4,370/oz and the FY2025 realized US$3,432/oz carried as cross-checks. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

OR Royalties spent 2025 quietly compounding: a “triple crown” of record revenue, cash flow and earnings, a fully repaid credit facility that left it debt-free for the first time in a decade, and a steady stream of bolt-on royalty deals — Namdini, Bralorne, Japan Gold, a Gold Fields package anchored by Peru’s San Gabriel mine — while its cornerstone Canadian Malartic royalty kept throwing off cash. The thesis in one line: a mid-tier, Canada-anchored precious-metals royalty book, debt-free and guiding to 50% gold-equivalent-ounce growth by 2030, trading at a discount to where the sector’s premium multiples and the Street’s own targets say it should sit — if the Namdini, Dalgaranga and San Gabriel ramps land as guided and the CSA/Eagle Gold drags keep fading. For the company-level data behind this analysis — every royalty and streaming name screened side by side on cash margin, GEO growth and portfolio life — go to Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

OR Royalties Inc. (TSX & NYSE: OR) is a mid-tier precious-metals royalty and streaming company headquartered in Montréal, Québec, with a second office in Bermuda (OR Royalties International Ltd.) that holds its international streams. Formerly Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd, the Corporation completed a shareholder-approved name change to OR Royalties Inc. in May 2025; the ticker “OR” was unchanged on both exchanges. The Company commenced activities in June 2014 with a single producing asset and today owns a portfolio of 179 royalties, 15 streams, 3 offtakes and 7 royalty options (197 core interests), of which 22 are producing (17 royalties, 5 streams), 26 are in development and 149 are exploration/evaluation stage. The portfolio is anchored by a 3–5% net smelter return (NSR) royalty on Agnico Eagle Mines’ Canadian Malartic Complex in Québec — one of the world’s largest gold mines — which alone supplied ~39.5% of FY2025 gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs). By metal, FY2025 GEOs were 65.0% gold, 30.5% silver, 4.5% copper and other.

Figure 1. OR Royalties in numbers

Figure data: OR Royalties’ 2025 Annual Report (AIF, audited financial statements and MD&A), H1 2026 results and 2025 Asset Handbook ; market data as of the 11 Aug 2026 close (StockAnalysis.com, MacroTrends). Rating per Section 9.

Table 1. OR Royalties in numbers

Source: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report (AIF, financial statements and MD&A); market data (StockAnalysis.com, MacroTrends) as of the 11 Aug 2026 close. Cash margin = (revenue − cost of sales excl. depletion) ÷ revenue, per the Company’s definition; adjusted EBITDA (derived) = operating income + depletion + impairment.

Thesis in brief. Bull: a debt-free, ~97%-margin royalty book anchored by a genuine tier-1 asset (Canadian Malartic), with a funded, largely de-risked pipeline (Namdini, Dalgaranga, San Gabriel, the Island Gold District Expansion) guiding to 50% GEO growth by 2030 — bought mostly through disciplined, small bolt-on deals rather than one large bet. Bear: the book is unusually concentrated (Canadian Malartic + Mantos Blancos + CSA are ~65% of GEOs), the Eagle Gold royalty is earning nothing while the underlying mine sits in receivership, and the Company is meaningfully more silver-levered than its royalty-major peers. What tips it: whether the 2026 ramps at Namdini, Dalgaranga and San Gabriel land as guided, offsetting the CSA transition, and whether gold and silver hold near current levels. The full rating and its rationale are in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: here for the verdict? The statcards above and the rating in Section 9 are the whole story. Want the evidence? Read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

Gold has posted its largest annual gain since 1979 in 2025 (+67% in US dollars), averaging US$3,432/oz for the year and closing at US$4,368/oz, before easing back to ~US$4,050/oz by late July 2026 — a backdrop that has done much of the heavy lifting behind every royalty company’s 2025 results, OR Royalties included. For the macro picture behind that move — pricing, supply and demand, and how gold behaves across economic regimes — see the Gold Complete Market Guide .

2.1 Portfolio overview & map

The portfolio spans 20-plus jurisdictions but is genuinely concentrated at the top: Canadian Malartic alone is ~39.5% of FY2025 GEOs, and the top three interests (Canadian Malartic, Mantos Blancos, CSA) are just under two-thirds. The table below ranks the producing book by its FY2025 contribution.

Table 2. Principal producing interests, FY2025

Source: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report (MD&A, “Portfolio of Royalty, Stream and Other Interests” and GEO tables), 18 Feb 2026. GEOs approximate revenue share, as both are derived from the same average commodity prices per the Company’s GEO methodology. Ranked by FY2025 GEOs; percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Eagle Gold royalty is retained but earning zero GEOs while the underlying mine is in receivership (Section 2.7).

Concentration read. Roughly 65% of FY2025 GEOs sit in three interests operated by three different companies (Agnico Eagle, Capstone Copper, Harmony) across three jurisdictions — real diversification of counterparty risk, but not of single-asset risk, since Canadian Malartic on its own is two-fifths of the book. That is the portfolio’s central tension: a genuinely tier-1 cornerstone asset that also caps how diversified the “diversification” argument really is. (An asset map is a natural next visual for this section; it is omitted from this draft given the portfolio’s breadth — see Section 10.1.)

2.2 Revenue split — by metal and by asset

Figure 2. FY2025 GEOs by metal

Figure data: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report (MD&A), GEO table by commodity, year ended 31 Dec 2025.

Figure 3. FY2025 GEOs by asset

Figure data: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report (MD&A), GEO table by asset, year ended 31 Dec 2025.

Two cuts of the same 80,775 GEOs tell the story. By metal, OR Royalties is meaningfully more silver-levered than the royalty majors — 30.5% of GEOs from silver (see the Silver Complete Market Guide for the metal’s own supply-demand picture), against Royal Gold’s ~12% — because the book carries four dedicated 100% silver streams (Mantos Blancos, CSA, Sasa, Gibraltar) rather than gold streams with silver by-product credit. By asset, the top three names are ~65% of the book, and the top eight are ~86% — concentrated by the standards of a Franco-Nevada or a Royal Gold, though every top-eight interest sits with an investment-grade or senior-mid operator.

2.3 Canadian Malartic Complex — the cornerstone (Agnico Eagle, Québec)

The single most important interest: a 3–5% NSR on Agnico Eagle’s Canadian Malartic mine, plus a 5% NSR on the East Gouldie and Odyssey South underground deposits, a 3% NSR on Odyssey North, a 3–5% NSR on East Malartic, and a C$0.40/tonne milling fee on any ore processed at the mill that wasn’t part of the original 2014 property. Together these delivered ~39.7% of FY2025 GEOs (31,914 gold-equivalent ounces plus a small silver contribution) on Agnico Eagle’s 642,612 oz of gold production. Agnico Eagle guides 2026 production of 575,000–605,000 oz, dipping as the Barnat open pit nears depletion in 2029, before underground mining from four deposits — supported by Odyssey’s 6.0 Moz of Proven & Probable Reserves (NI 43-101, 31 Dec 2025) — lifts output toward a targeted ~1 million oz/year by 2033. Agnico Eagle plans roughly 190,700 metres of exploration drilling at Canadian Malartic in 2026 alone, aimed at extending the East Gouldie deposit and the Eclipse zone; OR Royalties’ NSR follows every incremental ounce at no additional cost. The concentration this creates is the flip side: no other interest in the book comes close to Canadian Malartic’s scale, so it is both the portfolio’s anchor and its largest single-name risk.

2.4 Mantos Blancos — the silver-from-copper stream (Capstone Copper, Chile)

A 100% silver stream on Capstone Copper’s Mantos Blancos open-pit copper mine in Chile’s Antofagasta region, paying 8% of the monthly average silver price per ounce delivered, with a two-month delivery lag. OR Royalties is entitled to 100% of payable silver until 19.3 million ounces are delivered (7.5 Moz delivered as at 31 December 2025), stepping down to 40% thereafter. The stream contributed ~15.9% of FY2025 GEOs as Capstone’s plant throughput rose 25% year-over-year to ~19,981 tonnes/day, driving record copper production of 61,919 tonnes and pulling more silver through the mill. Capstone is studying a further expansion to at least 27,000 tpd (results expected H1 2026), though 2026 copper grades are guided lower (~0.70% sulphide vs. ~0.85% in 2027) — a one-year dip in the mine sequence that will show up as a softer 2026 for this stream before grades recover.

2.5 CSA — the Harmony transition (Harmony Gold, Australia)

Twin streams on the high-grade CSA copper mine in New South Wales: 100% of payable silver at 4% of spot, and 3.0–4.875% of payable copper (rising, then falling to 2.25% after 33,000 tonnes are delivered), at 4% of spot. Combined, CSA supplied ~9.5% of FY2025 GEOs. The mine changed hands in October 2025 when Harmony Gold completed its acquisition of MAC Copper Ltd — a transaction OR Royalties International had direct exposure to as a MAC Copper shareholder, receiving US$49.0 million and a ~22% gain on its equity stake at closing. Harmony is now integrating CSA into its broader portfolio and plans to publish a life-of-mine plan alongside its FY2026 results (expected August 2026); until then, OR Royalties’ own guidance for CSA is deliberately conservative. The operator’s five-year buy-down right (2028, US$20–40 million, reducing the stream rate) is a known, dated feature of the agreement rather than a surprise.

2.6 Island Gold District & the Canadian royalty base — the growth optionality

Beyond the three cornerstones sits a cluster of Canadian gold royalties that, together, are nearly as large as Mantos Blancos: Éléonore (Dhilmar, a 2.2–3.5% NSR, 6.3% of GEOs), the Island Gold District (Alamos Gold, a 1.38–3.0% NSR blending to a weighted ~2.34% over the underground mine, 4.1% of GEOs), Seabee (SSR Mining, 3% NSR, 2.6%) and the Lamaque Complex (Eldorado Gold, 1% NSR, 2.2%). Island Gold is the one to watch: Alamos’s February 2026 Expansion Study lifts Mineral Reserves 30% and expands the Magino mill to 20,000 tpd, targeting average production of 534,000 oz/year over 10 years post-expansion (2028+) — a 113% increase versus 2025 — with the Phase 3+ shaft and paste-plant infrastructure on track for late 2026. None of this costs OR Royalties a dollar of development capital; it is the clearest single illustration of the royalty model’s no-cost optionality at work.

2.7 Other assets & the development pipeline

The remaining producing book — Sasa (Central Asia Metals, a 100% silver stream, 5.5% of GEOs), Gibraltar (Taseko, silver stream, 2.7%), Ermitaño (First Majestic, 2.4%), Namdini (Cardinal Namdini Mining, a 2.0% NSR in Ghana following a January 2026 acquisition of Savannah Mining’s remaining 1.0% interest for up to US$103.5 million, still ramping to design capacity), Pan (Minera Alamos, 1.6%), Tocantinzinho (G Mining Ventures, 1.4%), Bald Mountain (Kinross, 1.0%) and Fruta del Norte (Lundin Gold, 0.6%) — rounds out a further ~13.9% of GEOs. The Eagle Gold royalty (Victoria Gold, Yukon) is retained on the books but earned zero GEOs in 2025: the mine has been under receivership since a June 2024 heap-leach failure, and OR Royalties’ own five-year outlook assumes no contribution from Eagle Gold through 2030 while the court-supervised sale process continues.

The development pipeline is deep and mostly funded by others: the company’s new five-year outlook targets 120,000–135,000 GEOs by 2030 (+~50% versus 2025), driven by first production at Gold Fields’ Windfall (Québec), South32’s Hermosa/Taylor (Arizona), Osisko Gold Group’s Cariboo (British Columbia), Solidus Resources’ Spring Valley (Nevada), United Gold’s Amulsar (Armenia) and Orla Mining’s South Railroad (Nevada, a 100% silver stream acquired in 2025 for US$13.0 million), plus a ramp-up at Ramelius Resources’ Dalgaranga (Australia) and first payments from Buenaventura’s San Gabriel (Peru, via an eight-royalty, US$115.0 million package acquired from Gold Fields in February 2026, anchored by a 1.5% NSR). Beyond that horizon sit Casino, Hermosa/Taylor’s sister deposits, Marban (an Agnico Eagle satellite acquired March 2025, blended ~0.9% NSR, eligible for the Canadian Malartic toll-milling fee), and dozens of exploration-stage royalties across 149 named projects.

2.8 Production, reserves & costs (consolidated)

FY2025 GEOs were essentially flat at 80,775 (2024: 80,740), landing inside the Company’s original 80,000–88,000 guidance despite an unfavourable shift in the gold-to-silver and gold-to-copper price ratios used to convert deliveries. The stoppage at Eagle Gold (2,857 GEOs earned in 2024, zero in 2025) was more than offset by higher Mantos Blancos silver deliveries and a ramping Tocantinzinho royalty. As a non-operating royalty holder, OR Royalties does not publish a consolidated, audited group reserve figure the way a miner does; reserve life is instead read through its cornerstones — Canadian Malartic’s Odyssey underground alone carries 6.0 Moz of Proven & Probable Reserves with a mine plan extending toward 2033, Island Gold’s post-expansion plan targets a further decade-plus of growth, and the 149-asset exploration book provides long-dated optionality behind both.

Figure 4. Revenue by fiscal year, FY2021–FY2025

Chart source: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report (MD&A, “Selected Financial Information”); FY2021–22 per the Company’s USD-restated history. GEOs were essentially flat year-over-year (80,740 → 80,775, §2.8) — the revenue rise is price-driven — so the flat GEO series is read in the prose rather than overlaid here (rule A13).

2.9 Peer positioning

OR Royalties sits in the middle of the precious-metals royalty and streaming sector: smaller than the senior trio, and — after a strong 2025 — now slightly smaller by revenue than its closest scale peer, Triple Flag Precious Metals. The peer set used throughout this analysis is Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM), Royal Gold (RGLD), Franco-Nevada (FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) and Metalla Royalty & Streaming (MTA) — senior-to-micro-cap precious-metals royalty and streaming names, spanning the sector from the largest streamers to a growth-stage micro-cap.

Table 3. Peer positioning, FY2025 (approximate)

Source: company filings and press releases as cited in Sections 2 and 3 (Royal Gold FY2025 10-K; Triple Flag, Franco-Nevada and Wheaton FY2025 results releases; Metalla FY2025 results release), each company’s own reporting basis; figures are approximate and should be refreshed at the reader’s own review — screen the full peer set on Metal Pilot.

OR Royalties’ strength in this set is its cash margin (96.7%, at the top of the peer range because more of its book is pure royalty than stream) and its debt-free balance sheet; its relative weakness is scale — Triple Flag’s 2025 GEOs (113,237) now exceed OR Royalties’ (80,775), a reversal from prior years — and its single-asset concentration, which is higher than any of the four larger peers.

3. Financials & balance sheet

FY2025 was a record year on every headline line, driven almost entirely by price: revenue rose 45.1% to US$277.4 million even as GEOs were flat, because average realized gold ($3,432/oz, +45% YoY) and silver ($40.03/oz, +42% YoY) prices did the work. Cost of sales (the contractual purchase cost under the stream agreements) was just US$9.1 million against US$277.4 million of revenue, leaving a cash margin of 96.7% — royalties carry almost no cost at all, and streams cost only the fixed per-ounce purchase price. Operating income reached US$196.8 million (2024: US$78.3 million), after a modest US$5.5 million of impairments on abandoned exploration-stage interests (versus a US$49.6 million impairment on the Eagle Gold royalty in 2024). Net earnings were US$206.1 million ($1.10 basic), boosted by a US$58.6 million net gain on investments — chiefly a US$54.4 million gain on the deemed disposal of an associate stake — so adjusted earnings of US$165.5 million ($0.88 basic) is the cleaner read of underlying performance.

Table 4. Five-year financial summary

Source: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report (MD&A, “Selected Financial Information,” FY2023–25 in USD); FY2021–22 revenue per the Company’s historical results as restated to USD following its post-2023 change of reporting currency (StockAnalysis.com aggregation, cross-checked against the primary MD&A for FY2023–24, which match to the reported figure). ¹FY2022 cash margin (93%) and dividend (C$0.22) are as originally reported in Canadian dollars before the currency change; a USD-consistent net income, EPS, operating-cash-flow and free-cash-flow figure for FY2021–22 is not available from primary filings on the same basis as FY2023–25 and is marked “—” rather than mixed. ²Free cash flow is approximated as operating cash flow; the royalty/streaming model carries no material sustaining capex. ³Net debt = total long-term debt less cash, both from the Annual Report’s consolidated balance sheets; parentheses denote a net cash position. ⁴Adjusted EBITDA (derived) = operating income + depletion + impairment of royalty, stream and other interests, per the Annual Report’s summarized income statement. ⁵FY2025 dividends were declared partly in Canadian dollars (Q1: C$0.065, ≈US$0.046) and partly in US dollars (Q2–Q4: US$0.055 each) following the Company’s May 2025 currency redenomination.

Figure 5. Operating cash flow by fiscal year, FY2023–FY2025

Chart source: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report (MD&A, “Selected Financial Information”). Operating cash flow is undisclosed on a consistent basis before FY2023; net income, cash margin and the revenue line are read from Table 4 rather than overlaid as extra series (rule A13).

The balance sheet is the year’s real story: OR Royalties fully repaid its revolving credit facility (net repayments of US$94.9 million in 2025) to end 2025 debt-free for the first time in over a decade, with US$142.1 million of cash on hand. It simultaneously renewed and enlarged its credit facility to US$650.0 million plus an uncommitted US$200.0 million accordion (up to US$850.0 million total), extending the maturity to 30 May 2029 — capacity funded entirely by cash flow, not new equity. On capital returns, the Company paid its 45th consecutive quarterly dividend (US$0.211/share declared in 2025) and, for the first time at scale, leaned on buybacks: 1.1 million shares repurchased for cancellation for US$36.7 million (C$50.8 million; average C$47.86/share) under its normal course issuer bid, against a prior-year total of just C$0.6 million.

Hedge & treasury posture. OR Royalties runs fully unhedged commodity exposure: it does not hedge the gold, silver or copper price risk embedded in its royalties and streams, retaining full upside and downside leverage to metal prices. Its main financial-risk exposure is currency — historically a Canadian-dollar reporting and dividend base against a book of predominantly US-dollar-denominated royalty and stream revenue, a mismatch the Company addressed directly in 2025 by moving both its financial reporting and its dividend declarations to US dollars.

4. Management, strategy & corporate structure

4.1 Management & governance

OR Royalties is led by President & CEO Jason Attew, in the role since 1 January 2024, a 25-year mining veteran who previously served as President, CEO and director of both Liberty Gold Corp and Gold Standard Ventures Corp, and before that as Chief Financial Officer of Goldcorp Inc., where he led corporate development and strategy through Goldcorp’s US$32 billion merger with Newmont Corporation. Attew also sits on the board of Evolution Mining. The board is chaired independently by Norman MacDonald (a director since June 2023, a former Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco and Senior Advisor at Fort Capital, also a director of G Mining Ventures and Advantage Energy), with Sean Roosen — the founder of Osisko Mining Corporation and the driving force behind the original Canadian Malartic discovery — serving as Chair Emeritus. The seven-member board is majority-independent (six of seven, excluding the CEO) and includes Patrick Godin (a director since March 2026, former President & CEO of New Gold Inc. until its March 2026 acquisition by Coeur Mining), Wendy Louie (since August 2024, former CFO of Sabina Gold and Silver Corp., chairs the Audit and Risks Committee), Pierre Labbé (since February 2015, currently EVP Finance of Fonds QScale), Candace MacGibbon (since January 2021, former CEO of INV Metals and current President of the Canadian Institute of Mining, Petroleum and Metallurgy) and Kevin Thomson (appointed January 2026, formerly Senior Executive Vice President, Strategic Matters at Barrick Gold, replacing the departing William Murray John). Finance is run by CFO Frédéric Ruel, in the role since February 2020 with prior experience at the Canadian Malartic Partnership and Osisko Mining Corporation itself; technical evaluation is led by VP Project Evaluation Dr. Guy Desharnais, the Company’s NI 43-101 qualified person since 2017.

4.2 Strategy & capital allocation

The stated strategy is to build a royalty and stream portfolio focused on Tier-1 jurisdictions — defined by the Company as Canada, the United States and Australia — while continuing to add smaller, accretive bolt-on interests globally (Ghana, Peru, Japan, Armenia, North Macedonia among the current book) where risk-adjusted returns justify the jurisdictional step-out. Growth is pursued through a high volume of small, disciplined transactions rather than mega-deals: 2025’s additions alone included the Namdini royalty step-up, a South Railroad silver stream (US$13.0 million), a Japan Gold royalty (US$5.0 million), a Sable Resources British Columbia royalty basket (C$3.8 million) and a second Cascabel stream payment (US$10.0 million), followed in early 2026 by the US$103.5 million Namdini buy-up and the US$115.0 million Gold Fields royalty package. Management’s named forward target is 120,000–135,000 GEOs by 2030 (from 80,775 in 2025, a guided +50%), funded — per the Company’s own framing — without further balance-sheet strain, given the debt-free position and US$850 million of available credit capacity.

4.3 Ownership & corporate structure

The Company’s defining 2025 corporate event was its own rebrand: shareholders approved the change from Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd to OR Royalties Inc. (Redevances OR Inc. in French) at the 8 May 2025 annual meeting, with shares beginning to trade under the new name and a new CUSIP on both the TSX and NYSE from 13 May 2025; the ticker “OR” was unchanged. Separately — and a common source of reader confusion — Osisko Development Corp., a related but distinct company in which OR Royalties holds a 13.1% equity interest (33.33 million shares, fair value US$113.1 million at 31 December 2025, down from 24.4% a year earlier as Osisko Development completed private financings OR Royalties did not participate in), itself rebranded to Osisko Gold Group Inc. (ticker OGG) in July 2026. The two companies share history and a name family but are separately listed and managed. On M&A, OR Royalties International (the Bermuda subsidiary) received US$49.0 million in October 2025 when Harmony Gold completed its acquisition of MAC Copper Limited (owner of the CSA mine), realizing a ~22% gain on a roughly two-year-old equity stake. The Company also holds material streams subject to operator buy-down rights — CSA’s copper stream can be partially bought down for US$20–40 million on its fifth anniversary (2028) — a known, dated feature rather than a surprise. OR Royalties International Ltd., headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda, holds the Company’s international (non-Canadian) stream interests.

5. ESG & sustainability

OR Royalties published the sixth edition of its sustainability report, “Growing Responsibly,” covering calendar-year 2025, alongside its 2025 Asset Handbook . As a non-operator, its direct environmental footprint is small by construction — it does not run mines — so its ESG framework centres on screening royalty and stream candidates for ESG risk before acquisition and on a formalized Climate Change Policy that folds climate risk into investment decisions. The Company purchases Gold Standard-verified carbon credits to offset the Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions tied to its own workforce and office footprint, and it was named a Great Place to Work Canada for a second consecutive year. Third-party ratings are solid for the sector: Prime Status from ISS ESG and an “AA” rating from MSCI. Community investment reached US$625,000 in 2025, bringing cumulative giving to over US$1.5 million since 2021 — modest in absolute terms next to the royalty majors, consistent with OR Royalties’ smaller scale. The honest limitation, shared with every royalty peer: the operational ESG exposure — tailings at Mantos Blancos, water use at CSA, community relations around Namdini — sits with Capstone, Harmony and Cardinal Namdini Mining, not with OR Royalties, and its own disclosure, while improving, remains lighter than the sector’s senior names.

6. Risks

Table 5. Risk register

Source: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report risk factors and MD&A; this analysis. Likelihood/impact are the author’s assessment.

The through-line is familiar to every royalty investor: the model removes operating and capital risk but not price risk, concentration risk or operator risk. For OR Royalties specifically, the two idiosyncratic points that most distinguish it from Royal Gold or Franco-Nevada are a higher single-asset concentration (Canadian Malartic vs. Royal Gold’s more diversified Mount Milligan-led book) and a larger silver weighting, which raises both the upside and downside sensitivity relative to a pure gold-royalty peer.

Figure 6. Risk heat-map

Source: this analysis, per the risk register above (Table 5).

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 12 Aug 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close). Price deck (fixed gold grid, Table 3b, rule V26): bear US$3,000/oz, base US$4,000/oz, bull US$5,000/oz (the five US$500 rungs US$3,000–US$5,000); silver ~US$60/oz. Spot gold ~US$4,370/oz and the FY2025 realized US$3,432/oz carried as cross-checks. Discount rate ~5% real (precious-metals convention), sensitised 4–8%.

7.1 Method selection & weights

OR Royalties is a royalty/streaming company, so this analysis triangulates the three value-per-share methods the archetype prescribes, each recomputed in every scenario (rules V11, V14): a portfolio NAV at a target P/NAV, a price-to-cash-flow method at a justified multiple, and a dividend yield-support price. EV/GEO, analyst consensus and the market-implied read are carried at zero weight as cross-checks (rules V12, V19). A full asset-by-asset DCF across 197 interests is beyond a single analysis; the NAV below is a simplified top-down capitalisation of the portfolio’s cash flow and reads as a conservative floor (rule V4).

Table 6. Valuation methods and weights

Source: this analysis; weights per the royalty/streaming default in blog-valuation.md (§5). NAV holds at 50% — the archetype’s collinear ceiling (rule V18).

7.2 Net asset value (NAV) at target P/NAV

The portfolio NAV capitalises OR Royalties’ operating cash flow over an effective portfolio life, at the base rung. FY2025 operating cash flow of US$245.6m was struck at a realised gold price of US$3,432/oz; scaled to the US$4,000 base rung of the fixed gold grid (Table 3b — a ~97%-margin royalty book passes a price move through almost one-for-one), that is ~US$286m of annual cash flow. Discounted as an ~18-year annuity at 5% and bridged for the US$142.1m net-cash position:

Table 7. Portfolio NAV build-up (base rung US$4,000/oz, 5% discount)

Source: this analysis, from OR Royalties’ FY2025 cash-flow and balance-sheet disclosures (Sections 1, 3). A simplified top-down capitalisation, not a per-asset DCF — it holds cash flow flat over the life, crediting none of the guided ~50% GEO growth to 2030, so it reads as a conservative floor. The effective life and discount rate are the two assumptions doing the most work.

At the US$4,000 base rung this NAV implies roughly US$18.60/share, against the US$33.53 NYSE price — an implied P/NAV of about 1.80×, within the sector’s 1.3×–2.5× band and below its midpoint (a premium the sector earns through asset-light diversification, high margins and free optionality). Because the NAV credits none of the guided 50% GEO growth to 2030, this analysis reads it as a conservative floor and values the equity at that floor times a target P/NAV: for a debt-free, tier-1-anchored mid-tier, a base target of 1.90× (bear 1.40×, bull 2.25×) gives a base NAV-method value of ~US$35.3/share (Table 9).

The floor NAV is struck across the fixed gold grid (Table 3b, rule V26) — the five US$500 rungs from US$3,000 to US$5,000 — and three discount rates, so the reader can see how much of the value is gold-price versus discount-rate assumption:

Figure 7. NAV per share sensitivity — gold price × discount rate

Figure data: this analysis. NAV/share = FY2025 operating cash flow scaled for gold price, capitalised as an ~18-year annuity at the row discount, plus US$142.1m net cash, over ~187.5m shares. Columns are the fixed gold grid (Table 3b of the valuation playbook), US$3,000–US$5,000 in US$500 rungs; the base is the US$4,000 rung at 5% (outlined), against a spot of ~US$4,370/oz — so the base sits below spot, a conservative anchor. Shading ranks every cell within the figure’s own US$11.5–US$24.9 range. A one-rung (US$500) gold move shifts NAV/share by ~±US$2.2 at the base discount.

7.3 Relative methods → value per share

Each relative method is converted to a value per share (rule V11).

P/CF. On FY2025 operating cash flow of US$245.6m (US$1.31/share) the trailing multiple is ~25.6× at today’s price — but FY2025 predates the 2026 ramps (Namdini, Dalgaranga, San Gabriel) and a record Q1/H1 2026. On a forward 2026 run-rate of ~US$1.85/share, the multiple is ~18.1×. Applying a justified ~18.5× multiple (mid-tier, a touch below the seniors) to that ~US$1.85 forward cash flow gives a P/CF value of ~US$34.2/share.

Table 8. Relative valuation vs. the royalty peer set (late-Jul 2026 relative snapshot)

Source: company filings and market data, as cited in Sections 2–3; a late-July relative snapshot for the peer multiples — the early-August gold move has lifted the whole sector’s absolute multiples, but the mid-tier ranking holds.

Dividend yield-support. OR Royalties’ US$0.22/share annualized dividend (45th consecutive quarterly payment) yields ~0.66% at today’s price. Capitalizing the dividend at a target yield of ~0.70% gives a yield-support value of ~US$31.4/share.

7.4 Cross-checks

These carry no weight (rule V12). EV/GEO: at ~US$6.1bn EV over ~90,000 GEOs (2026 guidance midpoint) OR trades at ~US$68,000/GEO — a mid-tier figure, below the seniors. Analyst consensus: thin coverage clusters at roughly US$40.50 (mixed Hold/Buy; range ~US$38–42, one Canadian target ~C$58), about +21% above the price, crediting the 50%-by-2030 growth this floor excludes. Market-implied (rule V19): at US$33.53 the price discounts a P/NAV of ~1.80× the conservative floor, a forward P/CF of ~18.1×, and a dividend yield of ~0.66% — a mid-band read, not a full sector premium.

7.5 Scenario analysis & fair-value blend

Because OR Royalties carries no operating leverage but full, unhedged price leverage, gold and silver are the swing variables, and the Namdini/Dalgaranga/San Gabriel ramps the swing on volume. Every weighted method is recomputed in three worlds and blended on the Table 6 weights (rule V14).

Table 9. Fair value by scenario (value per share, US$)

Source: this analysis. Blend = 0.50 × NAV + 0.35 × P/CF + 0.15 × yield-support, per Table 6. The three gold decks are the US$3,000 / US$4,000 / US$5,000 rungs of the fixed grid (Table 3b, rule V26); NAV/share is read off Figure 7 at each rung and discount (bear US$11.49 at 8%, base US$18.60 at 5%, bull US$24.92 at 4%) and cash flow per share moves with the deck (~US$1.4 / US$1.85 / US$2.3). Bear: gold at the grid floor and the ramps slip (P/NAV 1.40×, P/CF 15.5×, yield 0.92%). Base: the US$4,000 rung with the 2026 guidance delivered (P/NAV 1.90×, P/CF 18.5×, yield 0.70%). Bull: gold at the grid top, the full ramp and pipeline conversion land (P/NAV 2.25×, P/CF 21×, yield 0.62%).

Figure 8. Value per share by method and scenario

Figure data: Table 9. Shading ranks every cell within this figure’s own US$16–US$56 range; the base-case blend carries the outline. Current share price US$33.53 (11 Aug 2026). The NAV row spreads widest — gold-price leverage compounds with the P/NAV re-rating across the fixed grid — while the yield-support method sits tightest.

7.6 Valuation conclusion

The weighted blend puts base-case fair value at ~US$34/share — about +2% above the US$33.53 price — so this analysis reads OR Royalties as Fairly valued on the US$4,000 base rung (wide band), a step down from the “modestly undervalued” read that held ~US$4 lower: the stock has re-rated ~15% since late July, closing most of its discount. The bear case (US$19.2, US$3,000 gold) is 43% below the price (well beyond the 25% threshold, so the qualifier travels — a streamer has no cost-side cushion against a gold reversion toward the grid floor), while the bull case (US$50.4, US$5,000 gold) is +50%, well above the Street’s ~US$40.50 target. Struck at the ~US$4,370 spot the blend is ~US$37 (+10%), so the read tips to modestly undervalued once gold’s actual level is credited — the US$4,000 base rung sits deliberately below spot. What keeps the name interesting is the same thing that made it cheap: a debt-free, ~97%-margin book anchored by tier-1 Canadian Malartic, guiding to 50% GEO growth by 2030 that this conservative NAV credits at zero. The read is fairly valued today, tilting modestly undervalued if the 2026 ramps (Namdini, Dalgaranga, San Gabriel) land as guided and the CSA/Eagle Gold drags keep fading. Assumptions box: valuation date 12 Aug 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close); price US$33.53, ~187.5m basic shares, ~US$6.3bn market cap, US$142.1m net cash; price decks the fixed gold grid (Table 3b) US$3,000 / US$4,000 (base) / US$5,000, spot ~US$4,370 carried as a cross-check; discount 5% real (4%/8% sensitised); weights NAV 50% / P/CF 35% / yield-support 15%; the NAV is a simplified top-down capitalisation (forward CF/share ~US$1.85 and the ~18-yr life are author estimates), pending a full per-asset portfolio DCF. Primary yardstick: portfolio P/NAV.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Most of the next two-to-three years of growth is already contracted and no-cost to OR Royalties: the job is converting a 2025 that was almost entirely price-driven into a 2026–2028 that is genuinely volume-driven, as recently acquired and ramping interests reach their design capacity.

Table 10. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Source: OR Royalties 2025 Annual Report and February 2026 results release (2026 guidance and 5-year outlook); operator public guidance as cited in Section 2. Timing reflects public guidance and is not guaranteed.

The common thread is that these catalysts require no capital commitment from OR Royalties beyond what it has already spent — the payoff is in production ramping at mines it already holds an interest in, plus a balance sheet with the room to keep adding more.

9. Rating & verdict

OR Royalties is scored on the Metal Pilot Company Scorecard — the same nine dimensions, on the same ★1–5 scale, used for every royalty and streaming name in this series, scored against the peer set declared in Section 2.9 (Triple Flag, Royal Gold, Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Metalla).

Table 11. The OR Royalties scorecard

OR Royalties is scored on the Royalty / streaming archetype weighting (playbook Table 2): dimensions 1 Asset quality, 4 Growth & optionality, 6 Capital allocation and 7 Management are the dominant, over-weighted dimensions (15% each); the remaining five dimensions carry base weight (8% each). No dimension is N/A for this archetype.

Weighted average = (0.45 + 0.32 + 0.32 + 0.75 + 0.40 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.32 + 0.24) = 4.00/5 → rounds to the published ★★★★, Solid.

Source: the Metal Pilot Company Scorecard; evidence in Sections 2–7. Peer basis: senior-to-micro-cap precious-metals royalty & streaming names (Section 2.9).

The two-axis verdict. Quality Solid (★★★★) × Value Fairly valued (US$4,000 base rung, wide band; ~+10% at spot) → a re-rating candidate: solid quality that has re-rated to roughly fair, still a step below the senior names’ multiples and the Street’s target. The quality axis is durable — it tracks the assets and the balance sheet, not the share price — and it is genuinely good: best-in-class growth and balance-sheet dimensions, anchored by a true tier-1 asset, held back mainly by concentration and by scale that a fast-growing peer has now overtaken. The value axis is the dated layer: after a ~15% re-rating since late July the ~25.6× trailing (~18.1× forward) P/CF sits inside the sector’s premium band but below the senior names, and the ~US$40.50 consensus target (+21%) still implies upside, reflecting how much of the 50%-by-2030 growth story the Street credits before it shows up in reported cash flow. The thing that tips the verdict from bull to bear is not the gold price alone but whether Namdini, Dalgaranga and San Gabriel ramp as guided through 2026–2027, converting a price-driven 2025 into the volume-driven growth the five-year outlook promises. This is an analytical read, not a recommendation.

To go from this single-name view to the whole peer group — screening every royalty and streaming company on cash margin, GEO growth, portfolio concentration and P/CF — explore Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company fundamentals, portfolio detail, financials, management and corporate-structure facts are from OR Royalties Inc. — 2025 Annual Report (Annual Information Form, audited consolidated financial statements and Management’s Discussion and Analysis) for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025, filed 18–19 February 2026, together with the Company’s 2025 Asset Handbook and its February 2026 results release (“OR Royalties Reports Record 2025 Results and Provides 2026 GEO Delivery Guidance and New 5-Year Outlook”). Executive and director biographies are from the Company’s Directors and Executives pages (orroyalties.com, current as of July 2026). Sustainability detail is from the sixth edition of “Growing Responsibly,” the Company’s 2025 sustainability report. Market data (share price ~US$33.53 / ~C$47, ~187.5 million shares outstanding, market cap ~US$6.3 billion) and analyst target figures (a small, split covering group, targets clustering roughly US$38–42, ~US$40.50 average) are as of the 11 Aug 2026 close from StockAnalysis.com, MacroTrends and aggregated broker-target trackers. FY2021–22 revenue reflects the Company’s own historical results as restated to US dollars following its 2023–24 change of reporting currency; other FY2021–22 metrics were not available on a consistent USD basis from primary sources and are marked accordingly (Section 3). Peer figures (Triple Flag, Royal Gold, Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, Metalla Royalty & Streaming) are drawn from each company’s own FY2025 results releases and filings. The asset-map figure (rule-sanctioned omission) is omitted given the portfolio’s breadth (197 interests). Valuation: a weighted three-method blend — portfolio NAV at target P/NAV 50%, P/CF 35%, dividend yield-support 15% — with EV/GEO, analyst consensus and the market-implied read as zero-weight cross-checks (rules V11, V12, V14, V19); the NAV (Section 7.2) is a simplified top-down capitalisation of portfolio cash flow, with a full per-asset portfolio DCF flagged as the natural next step; the NAV is struck across the fixed gold grid (Table 3b, rule V26 — the five US$500 rungs US$3,000–US$5,000, base US$4,000), Figure 7 is the NAV sensitivity grid and Figure 8 the method × scenario grid. Data as of 12 August 2026 (market data at the 11 Aug close); refreshed on each annual report and on material events. Provenance: OR Royalties Inc. — Annual Information Form / Annual Report — 2025.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed advisor. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 12 August 2026 — share prices, multiples, analyst targets and the valuation read move, and figures are estimates as of the stated date. The two-axis verdict is an analytical read of quality and price, not a personal buy or sell instruction. This report was prepared with AI assistance; figures were sourced from OR Royalties’ filings and market data and reviewed, but readers should verify before acting. The author holds no position in OR Royalties as of the date of writing.