Energy Fuels (UUUU) — Stock Analysis 2026 [2.7]

Analysis as of 20 October 2026. Price deck: base uranium US$90/lb U₃O₈ — the representative trailing average of the industry month-end price, snapped to the fixed US$60–120/lb grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$60, bear US$75, base US$90, bull US$105, deep bull US$120) and analyst consensus as a 0% cross-check (not available) — no spot price. The shares closed at US$8.21 on NYSE American on 20 October 2026; at that price the market-implied uranium deck is US$240.59/lb. Fair value US$3.76, implied −54.2%. Fundamentals from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (30 June 2026) and the FY2025 Form 10-K. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. Rating: ★★½ Average / Overvalued (wide band).

Energy Fuels mines uranium in Arizona and Utah, processes it at its White Mesa Mill, and is turning that mill into a rare-earth refinery fed by mineral-sands projects in Madagascar, Australia and Brazil. The thesis in one line: the uranium business is small and short-lived on its reserves, so the value rests on two unbuilt studies — Vara Mada and the Phase 2 rare-earth circuit — and even with both counted, NAV is US$6.55 a share against a US$8.21 price. Why now: the shares have fallen from a US$27.72 closing high on 28 January 2026, the Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) acquisition closed on 28 August 2026, a merger with VAC is pending, and Vara Mada’s feasibility study targets an investment decision in December 2026. To screen Energy Fuels against every listed uranium name on reserves, cost and stage, go to Metal Pilot’s uranium mining stock screener.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU; TSX: EFR), headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado, is a uranium and rare-earths company. By archetype it is a producer (mining): three uranium mines — Pinyon Plain in Arizona and La Sal and Pandora in Utah — feed the White Mesa Mill in Utah, which also separates neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and recovers vanadium. Beside them sit the Vara Mada mineral-sands project in Madagascar, the White Mesa Phase 2 rare-earth circuit, Bullfrog in Nevada, Roca Honda in New Mexico (permitting), Sheep Mountain and Nichols Ranch in Wyoming (standby), a 9.48% stake earning to 49% in the Donald project in Australia, the Bahia project in Brazil and ASM. (lb = pounds; Mlb = million pounds; P&P = proven and probable reserves; M&I = measured and indicated resources; HM = heavy mineral.)

Figure 1. Energy Fuels in numbers, as of 20 October 2026

Figure data: Energy Fuels SEC filings — Q2 2026 10-Q (production, cash, securities, notes), FY2025 10-K (reserves); share price per Yahoo Finance (20 October 2026 close); NAV and fair value per Section 7, rating per Section 9.

Table 1. Energy Fuels in numbers

Source: Energy Fuels SEC filings — Q2 2026 10-Q (balance sheet p.11, statement of operations p.9, production p.38), FY2025 10-K (statements p.216–220, reserves p.83, resources p.85); share price and range per Yahoo Finance; NAV, fair value and P/NAV per Section 7. Cash margin is revenue less costs applicable to revenue. Listed: Public (NYSE American: UUUU; TSX: EFR).

Thesis in brief. Bull: Vara Mada’s feasibility study shows a US$1,415 million NPV at 10% and the Phase 2 circuit’s study US$1.9 billion at 8%; built together, they would give Energy Fuels its own monazite feed and a U.S. rare-earth refinery, and US$961.7 million of cash and securities covers the near-term spend. Bear: Pinyon Plain has about 22 months of reserves left, about US$97 million a year of operating costs outside cost of sales leave forward EBITDA negative at US$90/lb, Vara Mada still lacks its investment agreement, a monazite permit and any financing, and diluted shares rose 40% from FY2023 to FY2025. What tips it: Vara Mada’s investment agreement and investment decision — the largest stage factor in the model. Full rating in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: the statcards and Section 9 carry the verdict; Sections 2–6 carry the evidence, and Section 7 the valuation.

2. Assets & operations

For how the uranium market works — long-term contracts, the spot market and the month-end price series used here — see the uranium market guide.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Table 2. Energy Fuels asset portfolio, by value

Source: Energy Fuels SEC filings — FY2025 10-K reserve and resource tables (pp.83–85), Q2 2026 10-Q MD&A (pp.37–43); the Pinyon Plain (2026), Vara Mada (Jan 2026) and Bullfrog (May 2025) technical report summaries; the Phase 2 BFS release (15 Jan 2026); enterprise NAV per Section 7, Table 9 (risked, base case).

Two unbuilt studies carry over nine-tenths of enterprise NAV: Vara Mada 48.5% and the Phase 2 circuit 42.6%. The only mine with reserves and a plan, Pinyon Plain, is 4.0%, and Madagascar alone outweighs every U.S. asset combined. Donald and ASM sit in the equity bridge at book and at their deal consideration.

2.2 Revenue split

FY2025 revenue was US$65.9 million: uranium US$50.1 million and heavy mineral sands US$15.8 million, the last product sales from Kwale in Kenya, where mining ceased at the end of 2024; the rare-earth segment booked none. Revenue is not disclosed by asset, so Figure 3 substitutes the split of enterprise NAV.

Figure 2. Revenue by commodity, FY2025

Source: FY2025 10-K, Note 18 — segment information, p.205.

Figure 3. Enterprise NAV by asset (base case, % of US$1,548.0 m)

Source: Section 7, Table 11 — the model on the Energy Fuels filings and technical reports in Table 6.

2.3 Vara Mada (Madagascar)

Vara Mada (formerly Toliara) is a mineral-sands project held 100% since Energy Fuels bought Base Resources. Its January 2026 feasibility study carries proved and probable reserves of 904 Mt of ore at 6.1% heavy mineral (55 Mt HM; monazite 1.9% of HM) at 31 December 2025, an NPV of US$1,415 million at 10% post-tax real at 30 June 2025 (US$1,757 million at the investment decision) and a 22.1% IRR. Life-of-mine revenue is US$20,289 million, 73% from ilmenite, rutile and zircon sold to third parties and 27% from monazite fed to White Mesa. Capital is US$121 million before the decision, US$862 million construction, US$50 million mobile equipment, US$50 million national and regional development and US$467 million sustaining — US$1,550 million in all. The schedule runs from an investment decision in December 2026 to first shipment in April 2029 and Stage 2 completion in December 2032. The study assumes 20% corporate tax and a 5% royalty. In hand: Exploitation Permit PE 37242 and the Environmental Permit. Outstanding: monazite’s addition to the permit, and an investment agreement — the stability mechanism — that Parliament must pass before the decision; a new President was sworn in on 17 October 2025. No financing is arranged. Book value was US$208.1 million at 30 June 2026. The asset risk is that agreement.

2.4 White Mesa Phase 2 REE circuit

The Phase 2 circuit would expand separation at White Mesa to 5,513 tpa of NdPr oxide plus 48 tpa of terbium and 165 tpa of dysprosium, on up to 50,000 tpa of monazite bought at arm’s length. Its bankable feasibility study (15 January 2026) gives an NPV of US$1.9 billion at 8% (tax basis not stated), a 33% after-tax IRR, US$410 million of initial capital and US$311 million a year of average EBITDA over the first 15 years stand-alone (US$765 million with Vara Mada). All-in cost is US$29.39/kg NdPr-equivalent on Vara Mada feed and US$59.80/kg across all sources. Regulatory approval is expected by mid-2027 and commissioning in the first quarter of 2029; the Q2 2026 10-Q says completion in mid-2029. Debt would come from a conditional US$725 million, 20-year OSC loan offered on 15 June 2026, equity from about US$996 million of working capital. The existing Phase 1 circuit has 1,000 tpa of NdPr capacity, and a US$104 million Phase 1 expansion adds heavy rare earths. Benchmark NdPr oxide was US$110/kg at 30 June 2026. The asset risk is feed: the circuit depends on Vara Mada, Donald and Bahia, none of them producing.

2.5 Pinyon Plain and the White Mesa Mill

Pinyon Plain in Arizona, 100% owned, is the highest-grade asset: proven reserves of 17.5 kt at 1.04% eU₃O₈ (365.3 k lb) and probable reserves of 115.6 kt (2,206 k lb) at 31 December 2025, 96% recovery, at a US$65/lb reserve price. The 2026 technical report gives a 32-month life at a nominal 166 short tons a day, AISC of US$30.71/lb, US$10.6 million of remaining capital and an after-tax NPV of US$78.3 million at 5%. The mine produced 1,534,000 lb from 47,200 tons in 2024. The White Mesa Mill in Utah processes Pinyon Plain, La Sal and Pandora ore: 865,000 lb of finished U₃O₈ in the second quarter of 2026. Its Pinyon Plain run from late 2025 made 1.7 Mlb at about US$23/lb. The mill also holds 905,000 lb of finished V₂O₅. The asset risk is life: without new reserves, Pinyon Plain is mined out within three years.

2.6 Other assets

Roca Honda (New Mexico, permitting) holds 17,622 k lb M&I at 0.48% and 13,842 k lb inferred. Sheep Mountain (Wyoming, standby) has probable reserves of 9,248 k lb in the Congo pit and 9,117 k lb underground, with no mine plan. Nichols Ranch (Wyoming) is a standby in-situ recovery plant with 6,183 k lb M&I at 0.106%. Bullfrog’s 2025 initial assessment, on 10.5 Mlb indicated and 3.4 Mlb inferred (10-K FY2025 p.85), gives an after-tax NPV of US$31.2 million at 8% on US$36 million of initial capital (±50%). La Sal and Pandora (Utah) produce on inferred resources only. At Donald (Australia), operated with Astron, Energy Fuels can invest A$183.00 million (US$126.17 million) to earn 49% with the offtake of all monazite and xenotime; its 2026 technical report gives a pre-tax NPV of about US$800 million (100%) and peak funding of about US$473 million in mid-2027. Bahia (Brazil) has no study. ASM was bought on 28 August 2026 for US$243.3 million, US$217.2 million of it in shares.

2.7 Production, reserves & costs

The 2026 guidance is 2.0–2.5 Mlb of contained U₃O₈ mined, 1.5–2.5 Mlb of finished U₃O₈ processed and 1.5–2.0 Mlb sold; the first half processed 1,655,000 lb. Group uranium reserves at 31 December 2025 (S-K 1300, in situ) are 365.3 k lb proven and 20,571 k lb probable; resources exclusive of reserves are 44,090 k lb M&I and 22,696 k lb inferred at a US$90/lb resource price. At 30 June 2026 the company held 2,265,000 lb of U₃O₈ in inventory, 1,640,000 lb finished at a weighted cost of about US$34/lb; 2026 cost of goods sold has run at about US$39/lb. No reserve replacement ratio is filed.

Figure 4. Uranium output — 2024, first half 2026 and 2026 guidance (Mlb U₃O₈)

Source: FY2025 10-K, note 10 to the reserve table (p.84); Q2 2026 10-Q, MD&A (p.38) and 2026 guidance (p.49).

Figure 5. Uranium reserves plus M&I resources by asset (Mlb eU₃O₈)

Source: FY2025 10-K, mineral reserve (p.83) and resource (p.85) tables.

2.8 Peer positioning

The peer set is four listed uranium names with filed scale, reserves or cost: Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) and Paladin (ASX: PDN) as producers, and Uranium Energy (NYSE American: UEC) and enCore Energy (NYSE American: EU) as the closest U.S. comparators. None is in a pending deal. No listed peer pairs uranium with rare-earth separation, so the rare-earth business is scored on its own studies.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: Energy Fuels SEC filings (FY2025 10-K pp.83–85; Q2 2026 10-Q pp.38, 50); Cameco 2025 AIF p.98; Paladin FY2026 MD&A pp.4, 6 and AIF p.28; UEC FY2026 Form 10-K pp.39, 97; enCore 2025 Form 10-K. Quality metrics only; cost bases differ.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Revenue rose from US$3.2 million in FY2021 to US$78.1 million in FY2024, then fell 15.6% to US$65.9 million in FY2025; the first half of 2026 brought US$60.9 million. The cash margin fell from 52.1% in FY2023 to 20.9% in FY2025 and recovered to 47.2% in the first half on the low-cost Pinyon Plain ore. Operating cash flow was negative in every year, −US$89.5 million in FY2025 against a US$85.6 million net loss, so the loss is cash, not accounting. FY2023’s US$99.9 million profit came from a US$119.3 million gain on the Alta Mesa ISR sale. The filings split capex into property, plant and equipment and mineral properties, not sustaining and growth; the FY2025 10-K restates FY2023 mineral-property additions at US$29.3 million against US$6.8 million originally.

Cost deck. No unit-cost or capital guidance is filed; the guidance table carries volumes only. Cost of goods sold ran at about US$39/lb in 2026, the Pinyon Plain mill run at about US$23/lb and its technical-report AISC at US$30.71/lb. Operating costs outside cost of sales were US$99.1 million in FY2025 excluding share-based pay and accretion: selling, general and administration US$53.1 million, exploration, development and processing US$38.0 million and standby US$8.0 million. Canadian non-capital losses of US$61.0 million expire from 2027.

Net debt and liquidity. At 30 June 2026 cash was US$58.4 million and marketable securities US$878.3 million current plus US$24.9 million non-current. The only debt is the 0.75% convertible notes due 2031, US$700.0 million at face (carrying US$677.7 million), convertible at US$20.34 with capped calls bought for US$53.55 million; there are no bank facilities or covenants. Net debt to EBITDA is not meaningful: EBITDA is negative at US$90/lb and below. The rehabilitation provision is US$23.5 million, backed by US$22.8 million of restricted cash.

Hedge book and capital returns. None is disclosed — the book is unhedged. No dividend has been paid. Equity funds the gap: 40.6 million at-the-market shares raised US$280.0 million in FY2025, a new US$500 million program opened on 13 October 2026, and shares outstanding rose from 240.4 million at the end of 2025 to 249.9 million at 30 June 2026. For how these lines fit together, see the Financial Metrics guide.

Table 4. Five-year financial summary (US$m unless stated)

Source: Energy Fuels Form 10-K FY2025 (pp.216–220, 241), FY2023 (pp.164–167, 182) and FY2022 (p.171). Cash margin = revenue less costs applicable to revenue; free cash flow = operating cash flow less both capex lines; net debt = convertible notes at carrying value less cash and current marketable securities.

Notes to Table 4

1. FY2023 mineral-property additions as restated in the FY2025 10-K; the FY2023 10-K printed US$6.8 m.
2. FY2023 and FY2021 net income include gains on asset sales of US$119.3 m and US$35.7 m.
3. n/m: EBITDA negative or the company in net cash.

4. Management, strategy & structure

4.1 Management & governance

Ross Bhappu, 65, became President and Chief Executive Officer and a director on 15 April 2026, after serving as President from 4 August 2025; he succeeded Mark Chalmers, who retired. On the board, Michael Stirzaker, former Chair of Base Resources, joined on 2 October 2024, and longtime director Robert W. Kirkwood stepped down on 15 October 2025. Nathan R. Bennett signs the Q2 2026 10-Q as Chief Financial Officer (p.72). The Chair, board size and independence, the committee list and any related-party dealings are not in the source set: no proxy statement was in hand for this analysis (FY2025 10-K and Q1–Q2 2026 10-Qs checked).

4.2 Strategy

Energy Fuels reports three segments — uranium, rare earths and heavy mineral sands — and its strategy ties them together: sell uranium from its own mines through White Mesa, expand the mill into a U.S. rare-earth refinery (the US$104 million Phase 1 expansion, then Phase 2 with approval due by mid-2027), and secure its own monazite through Vara Mada (first shipment April 2029), the Donald earn-in and Bahia. The conditional OSC loan would also fund a U.S. metals and alloys plant. Growth comes by acquiring companies with feed or processing.

4.3 Ownership & structure

The most material deal is the pending merger with VAC, signed on 23 June 2026: US$718.0 million in cash and 65,853,000 shares, about US$1.8 billion at the US$11.35 close of 25 September 2026. ASM closed on 28 August 2026 for US$243.3 million (US$217.2 million in 14.809 million shares, US$26.1 million cash). Base Resources brought Vara Mada and Kwale in 2024. Energy Fuels sold the Alta Mesa ISR project in 2023 for a US$119.3 million gain. The one joint venture is Donald, with Astron. Holders of 5% or more are not in the source set. Outstanding obligations are the 2031 notes, US$1.8 million of contingent consideration and a US$4.2 million non-controlling interest. Basic shares at the as-of date are 264.728 million: 249.919 million at 30 June 2026 plus the ASM shares, before any at-the-market sales since.

5. ESG & sustainability

Disclosure in the SEC filings is thin. The company signed an agreement with the Navajo Nation, announced on 29 January 2025. Mining at Kwale in Kenya ended on 31 December 2024 and the site is in reclamation. Rehabilitation provisions total US$23.5 million, with US$22.8 million of restricted cash posted as bonding. The filings carry no safety rate, no greenhouse-gas figures and no decarbonisation target, so the licence-to-operate score is set low for missing evidence, not for an incident.

6. Risks

Table 5. Risk register

Source: Energy Fuels SEC filings — Q2 2026 10-Q (pp.11, 40–43, 50), FY2025 10-K and the 13 Oct 2026 pro forma; Vara Mada FS TRS (Jan 2026); Section 7 for the valuation figures. Likelihood and impact are this analysis’s assessment.

Figure 6. Risk matrix — likelihood × impact

Source: Table 5; likelihood and impact are this analysis’s assessment.

The two top-right risks are one fact seen twice: the share price assumes the studies get built, and Vara Mada’s investment agreement is the first gate. Section 7 prices three of these risks directly — Vara Mada’s agreement and funding through its 0.40 stage factor, Phase 2’s approval and feed through its 0.35 factor, and the unhedged deck by running every grid price as a scenario.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 20 October 2026, in US dollars (Energy Fuels’ reporting currency) against the US$8.21 NYSE American close of 20 October 2026. Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base uranium US$90/lb U₃O₈ — the representative of the trailing averages (3-month US$88.56, 6-month US$86.87 and 12-month US$85.34/lb, Cameco’s month-end series, to September 2026) on the fixed US$60–120/lb grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$60 to deep bull US$120/lb). Vara Mada’s mineral sands (US$382/t) and monazite (US$6,061/t) sit at the feasibility study’s life-of-mine averages, and the Phase 2 rare-earth circuit at its study’s deck, in every column. Discount rate 9% real. The pending VAC merger is not in the numbers.

Energy Fuels is valued as a uranium producer following the How to Value Commodity Stocks guide, on a sum of the parts. Pinyon Plain, the one mine with reserves and a plan, is run to its reserve, depleted to the valuation date, on the technical report’s cost; about 22 of its 32 months remain. Two studies carry most of the value. Vara Mada in Madagascar enters at its feasibility-study NPV, re-struck to 9%, rolled to the valuation date and cut by a stage factor of 0.40: its mining and environmental permits are held, but the investment agreement, the monazite permit and the financing are not. The White Mesa Phase 2 rare-earth circuit enters at its feasibility NPV, re-struck to 9%, rolled from the January 2026 release and cut by 0.35: approval is expected in mid-2027, its loan is conditional, and its feed depends on mines not yet built. Bullfrog and the uranium beyond every plan add little. Net asset value carries half the weight; EV/EBITDA and an FCF-yield build on the next twelve months carry the rest.

Enterprise NAV at the base deck is US$1,548.0 million: Vara Mada US$750.2 million, the Phase 2 circuit US$659.8 million, the conversion row US$71.5 million, Pinyon Plain US$61.4 million and Bullfrog US$5.1 million. The bridge adds US$185.7 million net: US$910.7 million of cash and current securities plus the ASM and Donald stakes, less the US$700.0 million convertible notes at face and US$360.0 million of capitalised overhead. That gives NAV of US$6.55 per share, a P/NAV of 1.25×.

Three choices set the level. The two stage factors carry most of it. Vara Mada across its band moves NAV per share between US$6.19 and US$7.61, and the Phase 2 circuit at 0.25 or 0.55 between US$5.84 and US$7.97. The uranium deck sits 29% above its five-year average of US$69.53/lb, so every anchor is held at mid-cycle and the deck flexed alone. And the business burns cash at today’s prices. On the 2026 cost of goods sold of US$39/lb and US$97.2 million a year of other operating costs, forward EBITDA turns positive only at about US$95/lb. Below that deck the EV/EBITDA leg is the bridge alone and the FCF leg is zero.

Table 6. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on (full register: Table 20)

Source: Energy Fuels SEC filings — the FY2025 10-K, the Q2 2026 10-Q, the Pinyon Plain (2026), Vara Mada (Jan 2026) and Bullfrog (May 2025) technical report summaries, the Phase 2 BFS release (15 Jan 2026) and the 13 Oct 2026 pro forma; uranium prices per Cameco’s uranium price series. Each row’s full citation is in Table 20.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Over the next three years the catalysts are approvals and financing rather than output; each moves a stage factor or the share count in Section 7.

Table 18. Near-term catalysts

Source: Energy Fuels SEC filings — Q2 2026 10-Q (pp.40–43), FY2025 10-K (p.29), the 13 Oct 2026 pro forma; Vara Mada FS TRS (Jan 2026), Section 22; Donald TRS (Feb 2026), Section 1.

9. Rating & verdict

Table 19. Scorecard rationale — Energy Fuels, 20 October 2026

Source: as cited per row — Energy Fuels SEC filings, the Pinyon Plain and Vara Mada technical reports and the Phase 2 BFS release; peers per Table 3. Every score is against the peer set in Section 2.8.

The arithmetic: 0.15 × 3 + 0.15 × 3 + 0.15 × 2 + 0.15 × 3 + 0.15 × 2 + 0.0625 × 4 + 0.0625 × 3 + 0.0625 × 3 + 0.0625 × 2 = 2.70/5 → ★★½, Average. Producer weights: asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation at 15% each; growth, management, jurisdiction and ESG share the remaining 25%.

The two-axis verdict. As of 20 October 2026, Energy Fuels rates ★★½ Average with a read of Overvalued (wide band) — the verdict is Full: at US$8.21 the blended fair value of US$3.76 implies −54.2%, and the market-implied uranium deck of US$240.59/lb is more than two and a half times the twelve-month month-end high of US$94.28/lb (range US$75.80–94.28/lb). The target multiples — P/NAV 0.96×, EV/EBITDA 6.7× and an FCF yield of 7.3% — carry a −4% driver line: reserves and life and capital allocation at ★★, asset quality, cost, balance sheet and jurisdiction at the median.

The bull case needs Madagascar to sign the investment agreement, Vara Mada to be financed and built, and the Phase 2 circuit to win approval and run on that feed — then most of the stage discount on US$1,368.1 million of risked study value falls away. The bear case is the record so far: a uranium business that burns cash at US$90/lb, under two years of reserves left at its best mine, and equity issued every year to fund the gap. The investment agreement tips it; the uranium price alone does not. To rank Energy Fuels against every peer on these nine dimensions, screen the sector on Metal Pilot’s uranium mining stock screener.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. Energy Fuels SEC filings: Form 10-K for FY2025 (filed 26 February 2026), FY2024, FY2023 and FY2022; Form 10-Q for the second quarter of 2026 (filed 5 August 2026; the as-of anchor for the balance sheet) and the first quarter; the Form 8-K of 3 March 2026 (CEO), the 13 October 2026 pro forma (ASM and VAC) and ATM opinion, and the ASM scheme booklet (28 July 2026). Technical reports: Pinyon Plain TRS (2026), Vara Mada feasibility study TRS (January 2026), Donald technical report (February 2026), Bullfrog initial assessment (9 May 2025). Releases: Vara Mada FS (8 January 2026) and Phase 2 BFS (15 January 2026).

Peer and market data. Cameco 2025 AIF; Paladin FY2026 MD&A and AIF; UEC FY2026 Form 10-K; enCore 2025 Form 10-K; UUUU daily closes per Yahoo Finance to 20 October 2026; uranium month-end prices per Cameco’s uranium price series to 30 September 2026.

Methodology. Data as of 20 October 2026; price at the 20 October 2026 close of US$8.21; balance sheet at 30 June 2026 with ASM added; reserves at 31 December 2025. Deck: base uranium US$90/lb on the fixed US$60–120/lb grid in US$15 steps, every grid price run as a scenario, consensus at 0% (not available); Vara Mada’s mineral sands and monazite on the study’s life-of-mine averages. Grid: uranium price × 7%, 9% and 11% real. Peers: Cameco, Paladin, UEC and enCore, on filed quality metrics. Scorecard: producer weights (Section 9). Valuation: NAV at target P/NAV 50%, EV/EBITDA 30%, FCF yield 20%. Cadence: refreshed on each annual report and on material events — the Vara Mada investment agreement, the VAC closing or the Phase 2 approval.

Re-run log. 21 October 2026: new analysis — facts, model and draft; scorecard stars handed to the driver line (−0.04): at US$8.21 the fair value is US$3.77 (US$3.90 at the anchors), implied −54.1%, range US$2.79–4.45, Overvalued (wide band); NAV/share US$6.56; rating 2.7/5 Average. 21 October 2026, after the gate: Pinyon Plain depleted to the valuation date, the Phase 2 study rolled from 15 January 2026, the contingent consideration moved out of working capital, the Arizona tax bound added — NAV/share US$6.56 → US$6.55, fair value US$3.77 → US$3.76, implied −54.1% → −54.2%, read unchanged. The model’s full output, including the deck sensitivity, the P/NAV map and the cross-checks, is claude/valuation-models/energy-fuels-uuuu.out.md.

Omitted figures. The asset map is not built (Table 2 carries the portfolio). Figure 3 substitutes enterprise NAV by asset for revenue by asset, which is not disclosed. No optional financial or safety figure is built: the filings carry no safety rate.

Data gaps. The Chair, board size, independence, committees and holders of 5% or more (no proxy statement in the source set); safety and emissions figures; unit-cost and capital guidance; a Phase 1 rare-earth circuit NPV; Vara Mada’s per-product price deck; ASM’s own balance sheet; at-the-market shares sold since 30 June 2026; analyst consensus and the company’s own multiple history; Donald’s post-tax NPV; a reserve replacement ratio. Each is bounded or given a direction in Section 7, Table 17.

The register below holds the filed figures behind the valuation, one band per document; Table 6 at the head of Section 7 lists the load-bearing rows drawn from it.

Table 20. Source register — the filed figures behind the valuation (load-bearing inputs: Table 6)

Source: each row’s document as cited, one band per document; Table 6 at the head of Section 7 lists the load-bearing rows drawn from this register — Energy Fuels SEC filings (FY2025 10-K, Q2 2026 10-Q, the 13 Oct 2026 pro forma, the ASM scheme booklet), the Pinyon Plain, Vara Mada and Bullfrog technical report summaries, the Phase 2 BFS release, and Cameco’s uranium price series.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 20 October 2026: the price, NAV and verdict move with the market and the uranium price. Reserves and resources are S-K 1300 estimates, and the two studies that carry most of the value are not yet approved or financed; the valuation is a model on stated assumptions, not a measurement. The rating and read are analytical judgements, not a recommendation to buy or sell. This report was prepared with AI assistance from primary filings. The author holds no position in any company named here.