Equinox Gold (EQX) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.2]

Analysis as of 13 October 2026. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz — the representative trailing average (3-month US$4,267.67, 6-month US$4,389.83 and 12-month US$4,451.83 on the World Bank monthly series to September 2026) on the fixed grid — with every grid price run as a scenario: deep bear US$3,000, bear US$3,500, base US$4,000, bull US$4,500 and deep bull US$5,000/oz; silver is a by-product and is not decked; no forecast and no spot price enter the value. At US$10.85 a share (NYSE American close, 13 October 2026) the market-implied gold deck is US$3,593/oz. Rating: ★★★ Average / Modestly undervalued (wide band). Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. All figures in US dollars (US$) unless marked.

Equinox Gold is a gold producer — scored and valued here as a mining producer in precious metals — that has remade itself in sixteen months: it bought Calibre Mining in June 2025, sold its Brazil mines for US$900 m in January 2026 and closed the Orla Mining takeover on 31 July 2026, and it now guides 870,000–920,000 ounces for 2026 from six mines in Canada, Nicaragua, California and Mexico. The thesis in one line: a gold-geared producer whose high costs and Nicaraguan exposure are the price of a large, Canada-weighted reserve base. It is worth a look now because net debt fell to US$265.2 m after the Brazil sale while the blended fair value of US$13.65 sits 25.8% above the US$10.85 share price. To compare Equinox with every listed gold producer, open the gold dataset on Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Figure 1. Equinox Gold in numbers, as of 13 October 2026

Figure data: Table 1, this analysis.

Table 1. Equinox Gold in numbers

Source: Equinox Gold Q2 2026 MD&A and interim financial statements (guidance, net debt, liquidity, shares, dividend); the FY2025 MD&A and AIF (EBITDA, revenue, reserves at 31 December 2025); Orla Mining’s 19 March 2026 reserve release and FY2024 AIF (Musselwhite, Camino Rojo); NYSE American and TSX closes of 13 October 2026; NAV, fair value and read from Section 7.

Identity. Equinox Gold Corp. (NYSE American: EQX; TSX: EQX) is a Vancouver-based gold producer reporting in US dollars. It runs six producing mines — Greenstone and Musselwhite in Ontario, Valentine in Newfoundland and Labrador, the Limon and Libertad complex in Nicaragua, Mesquite in California and Camino Rojo in Zacatecas, Mexico — and holds the Los Filos (Mexico) and Castle Mountain (California) reserves outside any current mine plan, the South Railroad project in Nevada and five resource-only properties. (AISC = all-in sustaining cost per ounce sold; koz and Moz = thousand and million ounces; P&P = proven and probable reserves; M&I = measured and indicated resources.)

Thesis in brief. The bull case is the reserve base and the balance sheet: 21.4 Moz of reserves, more than half of the 2026 guided ounces from Canada, and net debt of about 0.2× annualised EBITDA after the Brazil sale. The bear case is cost and dilution: 2026 AISC guidance of US$1,900–2,000/oz is high for the group’s size, and the fully diluted share count of 1,247.5 m is 2.6 times the FY2024 diluted average. What tips it is gold against the two flip prices — the read turns Fairly valued below US$3,751/oz and Undervalued above US$4,067/oz — and whether Greenstone’s costs fall back towards its FY2025 level.

How to read this analysis: the statcards and Section 9 carry the verdict; Sections 2–6 carry the evidence, and Section 7 the valuation.

2. Assets & operations

Equinox sells gold; for how the gold price is set and why producers are geared to it, see Gold — A Complete Market Guide. This section covers the mines.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Table 2. Equinox Gold asset portfolio, by value

Source: Q2 2026 MD&A (2026 Updated Guidance, p.11); AIF FY2025 reserve summary (31 December 2025, NI 43-101, p.29); Orla Mining reserve release, 19 March 2026, and FY2024 AIF. Order by Section 7 net asset value; reserve life is the Section 7 model’s (reserves depleted to 13 October 2026 over the annualised 2026 rate).

Greenstone carries 26.3% of enterprise net asset value and 42.8% of FY2025 continuing revenue, and it is the largest single source of 2026 ounces at 29.7% of the six-mine guided total of 885 koz. By country, Canada (Greenstone, Valentine, Musselwhite) supplies 57.9% of those guided ounces even with Musselwhite counted for five months, Nicaragua 26.8%, California 8.5% and Mexico 6.8%. The reserve base is less concentrated than the production: Los Filos and Castle Mountain together hold 9,459 koz, 44% of the 21.4 Moz, outside any mine plan.

2.2 Revenue split

Figure 2. Revenue by commodity, FY2025

Figure data: FY2025 audited financial statements, note 28 (segment information, p.64); EDGAR filings.

Figure 3. Revenue by asset, FY2025 (continuing operations)

Figure data: FY2025 audited financial statements, note 28 — Greenstone US$777.6 m, Nicaragua US$491.6 m, Mesquite US$286.9 m, Los Filos US$109.4 m, Valentine US$80.5 m, Pan US$41.5 m, Castle Mountain US$29.6 m; Nicaragua and Valentine from 17 June 2025; Musselwhite and Camino Rojo joined after the period (EDGAR filings).

2.3 Greenstone

Greenstone, in Ontario, is a 100%-owned open pit feeding a 9.8 Mtpa carbon-in-pulp plant. It produced 223,843 oz in FY2025 at an AISC of US$1,824/oz, against 111,717 oz at US$1,025/oz in FY2024. In Q2 2026 it produced 64,656 oz at a processed grade of 1.15 g/t, and AISC rose to US$2,207/oz (H1 2026: US$2,080/oz). The 2026 Updated Guidance is 250,000–275,000 oz at a cash cost of US$1,550–1,650/oz and AISC of US$1,900–2,000/oz, with US$145–155 m of growth capital. Reserves at 31 December 2025 are 5,334 koz (179,000 kt at 0.93 g/t, NI 43-101), with a further 2,966 koz of M&I exclusive of reserves and 1,663 koz inferred. The asset risk is cost: a low-grade pit whose AISC has run above its own guidance in 2026.

2.4 Valentine

Valentine, in Newfoundland and Labrador, came with Calibre on 17 June 2025 and declared commercial production in December 2025; it is a 100%-owned open pit with a 2.5 Mtpa crush-grind carbon-in-leach plant. It produced 23,816 oz in the 2025 ownership period at US$1,596/oz, and 32,617 oz in Q2 2026 at 1.57 g/t, with AISC of US$2,399/oz (H1: US$2,336/oz) during the ramp-up. Guidance is 140,000–150,000 oz at AISC of US$2,000–2,200/oz with US$180–200 m of growth capital. Reserves are 2,748 koz (51,490 kt at 1.66 g/t). The board approved construction of the Phase 2 expansion on 5 August 2026 at US$436 m of initial capital, US$50–60 m of it in 2026; Phase 2 permits and its first-production date are n/d in the source set. The asset risk is the ramp-up to nameplate before Phase 2 capital peaks.

2.5 Nicaragua (Limon, Libertad)

The Limon and Libertad mines, 100% owned through Calibre, produced 262,025 oz in full-year 2025 (Libertad 190,420 oz, Limon 71,605 oz), 133,003 oz of it after the acquisition at an AISC of US$1,551/oz. H1 2026 output was 140,757 oz (Libertad 105,250 oz, Limon 35,507 oz) at US$1,853/oz, rising to US$2,056/oz in Q2. Guidance is 225,000–250,000 oz at AISC of US$2,000–2,100/oz with US$115–125 m of growth capital. Reserves are probable only — 1,169 koz at 4.01 g/t — with 904 koz of M&I exclusive and 1,010 koz inferred, so the plan rests on converting resources faster than the roughly four years the reserves cover. The asset risk is the country (Section 6).

2.6 Musselwhite

Musselwhite, in Ontario, joined with Orla on 31 July 2026 and is 100% owned. Reserves at 31 December 2025 are 1.45 Moz (8.72 Mt at 5.18 g/t), with 0.87 Moz of M&I and 1.42 Moz inferred, the highest grade in the portfolio. Guidance for 31 July–31 December 2026 is 100,000–110,000 oz at a cash cost of US$1,200–1,300/oz and AISC of US$1,700–1,800/oz, with US$10–15 m of growth capital — the lowest-cost Canadian ounces the group has. The asset risk is life: about five years of reserves at the annualised rate, so inferred conversion carries the mine’s value.

2.7 Los Filos

Los Filos, in Guerrero, Mexico, holds 5,354 koz of reserves (193,226 kt at 0.86 g/t), 7,897 koz of M&I exclusive and 3,237 koz inferred — the group’s largest reserve. It produced 33,013 oz in FY2025 (revenue US$109.4 m) and carries no production in the 2026 guidance; US$35–40 m of 2026 growth capital is guided. On 25 June 2026 Equinox ratified 20-year land access agreements with all three host communities, enabling a gradual heap-leach restart; no mine plan or restart date is filed, so Section 7 carries it at 0.35× the in-plan value per ounce, 9.9% of enterprise NAV. The asset risk is now execution: the reserve is worth what a new plan makes of it.

2.8 Castle Mountain

Castle Mountain, in California, holds 4,105 koz of reserves (243,808 kt at 0.52 g/t) and 1,470 koz of M&I exclusive; it produced 9,089 oz in FY2025. The Phase 2 draft environmental impact statement (federal) and draft environmental impact report (California) were published on 17 April 2026; the final documents and the Record of Decision are outstanding, and remaining capital is n/d in the source set. It carries 7.6% of enterprise NAV at the same 0.35× treatment.

2.9 Mesquite, Camino Rojo and South Railroad

Mesquite (California) produced 85,998 oz in FY2025 at US$1,885/oz and guides 70,000–80,000 oz at US$2,500–2,600/oz on 275 koz of reserves, about three years. Camino Rojo (Zacatecas), an oxide heap-leach mine from Orla, guides 55,000–65,000 oz for the five months at US$950–1,050/oz, the lowest cost in the group, on 968 koz of reserves at the 31 December 2024 vintage. South Railroad (Nevada) is in federal permitting — public scoping in September 2025, FAST-41 Covered Project status, a Section 404 application deemed complete, a draft environmental impact statement reviewed in Q4 2025 — with the Record of Decision targeted for mid-2026 and not disclosed as received; 2026 growth capital is US$70–80 m. Pan (Nevada) produced 11,877 oz from 17 June to 30 September 2025 and is not in the 2026 guidance. The Brookbank, Kailey, Key Lake, Hasaga and Golden Eagle properties hold M&I only.

2.10 Production, reserves & costs

Group output was 922,827 oz in FY2025, 258,905 oz of it from the Brazil mines sold on 23 January 2026, and 374,464 oz in H1 2026 before Orla. The 2026 Updated Guidance of 870,000–920,000 oz at a cash cost of US$1,600–1,700/oz and AISC of US$1,900–2,000/oz includes Musselwhite and Camino Rojo from 31 July; it replaced the standalone guidance of 700,000–800,000 oz at US$1,775–1,875/oz. Consolidated reserves at 31 December 2025 are 18,985 koz at 0.84 g/t before Orla, with 19,054 koz of M&I exclusive and 11,101 koz inferred.

Figure 4. Group gold production — FY2025, H1 2026 and 2026 guidance

Figure data: AIF FY2025 (2025 production, p.9); Q2 2026 MD&A (H1 2026, p.6; 2026 Updated Guidance midpoint, p.11) (EDGAR filings).

2.11 Peer positioning

Equinox is scored against four gold producers with mines in the Americas: Alamos Gold (AGI), Kinross Gold (K), B2Gold (BTO) and OceanaGold (OGC), on their latest annual filings and on quality metrics only; none is in a pending deal.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: Equinox AIF FY2025 and Q2 2026 MD&A; Kinross FY2025 MD&A (p.3) and AIF (p.8) and Alamos FY2025 MD&A (p.4, p.10) on EDGAR, peer lives this analysis; B2Gold and OceanaGold FY2025 filings not in the source set (Section 10.1).

Equinox’s 2026 output sits between Alamos and Kinross, and its 21.4 Moz of reserves exceeds both (15.9 and 20.9 Moz). Its cost does not compare as well: guided AISC of US$1,900–2,000/oz sits about US$330–480/oz above both peers’ FY2025 figures, which is why cost scores below reserves in Section 9.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 4. Five-year financial summary (US$m unless stated)

Source: FY2025, FY2024 and FY2023 MD&A and audited financial statements (selected annual information, cash flow statements, non-IFRS net debt and capital expenditure tables); Q2 2026 interim financial statements and MD&A. FY2022–FY2025 figures include the Brazil operations as reported; FCF is derived. FY2021 net income and EPS are from the FY2023 MD&A (p.34) and adjusted EBITDA from the FY2023–FY2025 MD&A, all as reported; the capex split is the MD&A’s non-IFRS expenditure, which does not sum to the cash line; other FY2021 lines are not in the source set.

Revenue nearly tripled from FY2022 to FY2025 as Greenstone ramped up, Calibre joined and the gold price rose; on continuing operations it doubled in FY2025 alone to US$1,817.2 m. Operating cash flow of US$818.3 m in FY2025 was 3.7× attributable net income, and free cash flow turned positive (US$126.0 m) after three negative years of Greenstone construction. The full metrics are explained in Financial Metrics for Commodity Investing.

Cost deck. The 2026 Updated Guidance sets a cash cost of US$1,600–1,700/oz and AISC of US$1,900–2,000/oz, against a Q2 2026 realised price of US$4,256/oz. Royalties and production taxes were US$60.5 m in H1 2026; the price-linked share of costs, the inflation basis beyond the 2.0% reclamation rate and the Canadian tax-pool horizon are n/d. Income taxes paid rose to US$173.4 m in H1 2026 from US$129.2 m in all of FY2025.

Net debt and liquidity. Net debt was US$265.2 m at 30 June 2026 on the company’s basis (total debt US$583.0 m less cash US$317.8 m), down from US$1,147.3 m at year-end after the US$900 m Brazil sale; Section 7 uses US$188.6 m, with the convertibles converted into the share count and US$92.5 m of undiscounted leases added. At US$3,000/oz the next-twelve-month EBITDA falls by about US$1.1 bn to about US$1.5 bn and net debt stays under 0.2× of it. Liquidity was US$877.4 m: the revolving facility, raised to US$1.0 bn on 27 April 2026 and extended to 31 July 2030 (accordion US$500 m), had US$559.6 m undrawn. The 2023 convertible notes (US$172.5 m, 4.75%, due 15 October 2028, convertible at US$6.30) and the 2025 notes (C$49.7 m, 5.5%, due 4 March 2030, at C$12.14) are both in the money. Covenant compliance is stated; the ratios are n/d. The reclamation provision is US$238.0 m (undiscounted US$409.9 m).

Hedge book and capital returns. No gold collars were outstanding at 30 June 2026 after the 2025 collars settled; foreign-exchange contracts were marked at US$6.6 m of liabilities. Deferred revenue of US$226.6 m covers a stream, a gold prepay and a gold purchase-and-sale arrangement, delivering ounces at about US$900–950/oz. The first dividend policy (US$0.015 a quarter, 18 February 2026) was raised 50% to US$0.0225 on 5 August 2026, and the NCIB approved on 25 February 2026 allows up to 39,414,095 shares, of which 307,100 were bought in H1 2026.

4. Management, strategy & structure

4.1 Management & governance

Chuck Jeannes became Chair on the closing of the Orla Transaction, succeeding Ross Beaty, Chair since December 2017 and now Chairman Emeritus (31 July 2026 release); Beaty subscribed US$6.0 m in the April 2024 equity offering, the only related-party transaction in the source set. Darren Hall, CEO, retires effective 31 October 2026, and Jason Simpson, former President and CEO of Orla, joined as President and takes over as CEO then (6 August 2026 release). Peter Hardie has been CFO since August 2016. The reconstituted board has eleven directors — Jeannes (Chair), Lenard Boggio (Lead Director), Tamara Brown, Omaya Elguindi, Douglas Forster, Darren Hall, Blayne Johnson, Rob Krcmarov, Jason Simpson, David Stephens and Mike Vint — and its independence count is n/d in the releases. The committees last disclosed (31 March 2026) were Audit (chair Boggio), Compensation and Nomination (chair Elguindi) and Environment, Social and Governance (chair Maryse Bélanger, who is not on the new board; successor n/d). Directors and officers owned 37,047,179 shares (4.69%) at 31 March 2026.

4.2 Strategy

The strategy since 2025 has been to become a larger, Canada-weighted producer by share-based acquisition and to fund growth from asset sales. Calibre (June 2025) added Valentine and Nicaragua; the Brazil sale (January 2026) paid down the revolver; Orla (July 2026) added Musselwhite, Camino Rojo and South Railroad. The 2026 plan carries US$600–650 m of growth capital and US$110–120 m of growth exploration, led by Valentine Phase 2, the project pipeline (South Railroad, Los Filos, Castle Mountain; US$105–120 m) and the Canadian mines.

4.3 Ownership & structure

The most material transactions are the Orla arrangement (agreement 12 May 2026, completed 31 July 2026, 100% of Orla); the Calibre acquisition (completed 17 June 2025, 302,842,820 shares issued); and the sale of the Brazil operations — Aurizona, RDM and the Bahia Complex — on 23 January 2026 for US$900 m in cash plus contingent consideration carried at US$117.7 m. Equinox held 10.7% of Versamet Royalties (TSX: VMET) at 30 June 2026 and sold 8.7 m of its 11.6 m shares on 7 July 2026 for C$129.9 m; it also holds 2.2% of Highlander Silver (TSX: HSLV). There is no non-controlling interest. At 5 August 2026 there were 1,167,459,822 shares outstanding and 1,247,524,702 fully diluted, including 8,298,865 options and 4,276,061 restricted share units; holders of 5% or more are n/d in the source set.

5. ESG & sustainability

Equinox published its 2025 Sustainability Report on 22 June 2026, and its board has an Environment, Social and Governance committee. The filings read record 23 lost-time injuries in 2025; the total recordable injury rate by year, the tailings standard alignment and facility count, and decarbonisation targets are n/d in the source set, and the score in Section 9 reflects that gap rather than padding it. On licence to operate, Equinox ratified 20-year land access agreements with all three Los Filos host communities on 25 June 2026; the restart they enable is not yet in the 2026 plan, and Nicaragua carries a quarter of guided output.

6. Risks

Table 5. Risk register

Source: this analysis — NAV effects from the Section 7 model; exposures from the Q2 2026 MD&A and interim financial statements and Section 2. Likelihood and impact are this analysis.

Figure 5. Risk matrix — likelihood × impact

Figure data: Table 5, this analysis.

Gold dominates: Section 7 prices it across the grid, and the flip price at which the read turns Fairly valued sits 6.2% below the base. Greenstone costs are the most likely risk to arrive, because Q2 2026 AISC already ran above guidance, and Nicaragua is the largest non-price exposure.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 13 October 2026, in US dollars. Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base gold US$4,000/oz — the 3-month, 6-month and 12-month trailing averages (US$4,267.67, US$4,389.83 and US$4,451.83, World Bank monthly series to September 2026) all sit between the US$4,000 and US$4,500 grid prices, and the snap leans low because the 12-month window still carries the January–March 2026 spike to a February peak of US$5,020 and the series stands 49% above its five-year average of US$2,687.13 — run across the fixed US$3,000–5,000/oz grid; no spot deck. Silver is a by-product inside the filed all-in sustaining costs and is not decked. Discount rate 5% real, after-tax. Share price US$10.85 (NYSE American close, 13 October 2026).

Equinox is valued on the producer (mining) archetype as a sum-of-the-parts — six producing mines in Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nicaragua, California and Mexico (Musselwhite and Camino Rojo since the Orla Transaction closed on 31 July 2026), the Los Filos and Castle Mountain reserves outside any mine plan, and an exclusive measured and indicated resource larger than the reserves being mined — with the method of the How to Value Commodity Stocks guide. The blend is US$13.65/share at the US$4,000/oz base, US$9.71 at US$3,500 and US$17.08 at US$4,500; each US$500/oz step moves net asset value by about US$3.41 a share. The target multiples are struck on the archetype anchors and moved by the scorecard’s driver line (−0.02, Table 12). The deck-sensitivity table, the P/NAV map, the cross-checks and the cost, life, stage-risk and slip cases print to the model’s out file.

Table 6. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on (full register: Table 20)

Source: this analysis’ facts file — filed rows read back beside their label in the filing named in Table 20; Input and Market rows as marked.

7.1 Method selection

Table 7. Valuation method selection

Source: weights, anchors and the archetype from the How to Value Commodity Stocks guide, producer (mining) set.

A producer with six operating mines and published reserves is valued first on its assets, so net asset value at a target P/NAV carries half the weight. EV/EBITDA (30%) and FCF-yield support (20%) read the same mines through the cash they make over the next twelve months. That matters here because four of the six producers hold fewer than five years of reserves at the guided rate, and an NAV built on short lives understates a portfolio that has added ounces by acquisition. The cash-flow family is held at its 50% cap. Consensus carries no weight, and no peer multiple enters: the targets start from the archetype anchors (1.00×, 7.0× and 7%) and move only with the scorecard.

7.2 Net asset value

Table 8. Vehicle map

Source: this analysis, from the Q2 2026 interim financial statements (note 8, deferred revenue), the Q2 2026 MD&A and the AIF FY2025.

The vehicle map sets what each line of the build owns: every mine is held 100%, the stream, gold prepay and purchase-and-sale deliveries are charged as deferred revenue in the bridge rather than netted from mine margins, and no minority claim sits between the mines and the parent. Each producing mine is then built the same way in Table 9: guided ounces at the guidance midpoint, the base deck less the guided AISC, statutory tax on that margin with no shield, and an annuity at 5% real over the reserve life depleted to the valuation date. Musselwhite and Camino Rojo are guided for five months only, so their volumes are annualised by 12/5. Los Filos and Castle Mountain hold reserves outside any mine plan, and no study in the source set prices them, so each is carried at the in-plan value per ounce times 0.35, the row floor; the exclusive measured and indicated resource takes the 0.25 floor of its band. Growth capital of US$625 m a year for two years is deducted without a tax shield.

Table 9. Per-asset NPV build — base case

Source: this analysis’ model, from the Q2 2026 MD&A (2026 Updated Guidance, p.11), the AIF FY2025 reserve and resource summary (p.29) and Orla Mining’s 19 March 2026 reserve release; deck and rate as stated above.

Table 10. Per-asset model — base case

Source: this analysis’ model; inputs as Table 9.

Table 11. NAV build-up and equity bridge (base case)

Source: this analysis’ model; balance sheet from the Q2 2026 interim financial statements (30 June 2026; note 9, derivatives) and the Q2 2026 MD&A (net debt, outstanding share data).

The bridge charges every claim filed at 30 June 2026. Net debt of US$188.6 m treats both convertibles as converted, because both are in the money and inside the 1,247.5 m fully diluted count; for the same reason the 2025 notes’ conversion option and the warrant liability are excluded. The Greenstone Contingent Consideration, a refined-gold delivery obligation, and the gold prepay swaps are charged with the FX contracts as derivative claims, and income taxes payable are named as a claim on the working-capital line. The statements predate the Orla close, so Orla’s own cash and debt are a gap, bounded in Table 17.

Figure 6. NAV build-up and equity bridge

Figure 7. NAV/share sensitivity — gold price × discount rate

7.3 Relative valuation

Table 12. Target-multiple driver line (one line, applied to every multiple)

Source: this analysis — anchors from the valuation guide’s producer set; the driver terms come from the scorecard in Section 9 (Table 19).

The driver line is one number applied to all three multiples, so the scorecard moves the targets together rather than method by method. Scale, reserves and the balance sheet add 0.01 each; cost and jurisdiction take off 0.02 each and capital allocation 0.01, which nets to −0.02 and sets the targets at 0.98×, 6.9× and 7.1%. Jurisdiction is charged once, through Dimension 8, and not again in the discount rate. EV/EBITDA is struck on next-twelve-month EBITDA at the base deck, built in Table 13 from the 2026 guidance because no 2027 guidance was filed before the as-of date, and carried to equity through the same claims as the NAV bridge.

Table 13. Forward EBITDA build — the next twelve months at the base price

Source: this analysis’ model, from the 2026 Updated Guidance (Q2 2026 MD&A, p.11) and the Q2 2026 interim financial statements.

Table 14. Relative valuation — implied value per share (base case)

Source: this analysis’ model; Tables 11 and 13.

7.4 Further weighted methods

Table 15. FCF-yield support build — the next twelve months at the base price

Source: this analysis’ model; Table 13 and the 2026 Updated Guidance.

The FCF-yield support values the equity on the cash the mines generate before growth capital: forward EBITDA less the sustaining costs inside AISC and cash tax on the margin above depreciation, divided by the 7.1% target yield. Growth capital stays out of the numerator because the NAV build already deducts it, and on today’s market value the same cash flow is an 11.3% yield. The method carries the smallest weight because it rests on a single year of cash flow at one deck.

7.5 Cross-checks

The cross-checks print to the model’s out file at 0% weight; the market-implied deck and the own-multiple history are read in the conclusion.

7.6 Scenarios & fair value

Table 16. Scenarios & fair value — inputs, value per method and the blend by grid price (US$/share)

Source: this analysis’ model; every column recomputed at its own discount rate.

Figure 8. Value per share by method and scenario

Conclusion. The blended base-case fair value is US$13.65, inside a US$6.20 (Deep Bear, US$3,000/oz) – US$20.51 (Deep Bull, US$5,000/oz) range, against the US$10.85 price — implied +25.8%, which reads Modestly undervalued (wide band): the lowest column blend sits 43% below the price. The range is wide because Equinox’s margin is geared to the deck — each US$500/oz moves the held-multiple blend by about US$3.43 a share — and because 44% of enterprise NAV sits in risked rows (Los Filos, Castle Mountain and the resource conversion) that scale with the in-plan value per ounce. Net asset value is US$12.19 a share, a P/NAV of 0.89×; the target multiples (P/NAV 0.98×, EV/EBITDA 6.9×, FCF yield 7.1%) carry −0.02 from the scorecard. Rating-flip prices: the read turns Undervalued above a gold deck of about US$4,067/oz (1.7% above the base) and Fairly valued below about US$3,751/oz (6.2% below it), both on the held-multiple blend. At US$10.85 the shares carry a market-implied gold deck of US$3,593/oz on held multiples — below all three trailing averages and inside the five-year range of US$1,664 (October 2022) to US$5,020 (February 2026). Equinox’s own EV/EBITDA closed FY2025 at 9.2×, after 10.6× (FY2022), 7.5× (FY2023) and 7.5× (FY2024) on the as-reported, all-operations basis, against 5.2× on the next twelve months at the base deck today. The FCF yield on the market value, before growth capital, is 11.3%.

Table 17. Assumptions box

Source: this analysis.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 18. Near-term catalysts

Source: Q2 2026 MD&A (CEO transition, Los Filos, Valentine Phase 2, Castle Mountain, p.4–7); FY2025 audited financial statements, note 13 (convertible notes); Orla Mining MD&A FY2025 and Q1 2026 (South Railroad). Timing is the company’s, not a guarantee.

The nearest events are the CEO handover and the first quarter with Orla consolidated; the 2027 guidance then replaces the 2026 run-rate the model carries. South Railroad’s permit is the binary item, and the gold price stays the swing factor.

9. Rating & verdict

Equinox is scored as a producer (mining) in precious metals on the nine dimensions, against the four peers declared in Section 2.11: asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation carry 15% each, and growth, management, jurisdiction and ESG 6.25% each; no dimension is not applicable.

Table 19. Scorecard rationale — Equinox Gold, 13 October 2026

Source: this analysis; every score cites its filing and date, against the Alamos, Kinross, B2Gold and OceanaGold peer set of Section 2.11 (EDGAR filings). Σ(weight × stars) = 0.60 + 0.30 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.30 + 0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.1875 + 0.125 = 3.15/5 → ★★★ Average.

The two-axis verdict, 13 October 2026: ★★★ Average × Modestly undervalued (wide band), implied +25.8% at US$10.85 against a blended fair value of US$13.65 — a re-rating candidate, with Greenstone’s costs returning to guidance and the first Orla quarters as the catalyst. The market-implied gold deck is US$3,593/oz, below the US$4,000/oz base and all three trailing averages, and the target multiples (P/NAV 0.98×, EV/EBITDA 6.9×, FCF yield 7.1%) carry −0.02 from Dimensions 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 8.

The bull case is that the market is pricing gold well below today’s averages for a producer with 21.4 Moz of reserves, net debt of about 0.2× EBITDA and an 11.3% free-cash-flow yield before growth capital; above US$4,067/oz the read turns Undervalued. The bear case is cost and per-share dilution: AISC of US$1,900–2,000/oz leaves the margin thin at the bottom of the grid — US$6.20 a share at US$3,000/oz — and 44% of NAV sits in risked rows. What tips it is the gold price first and Greenstone’s unit costs second; the scorecard is held at Average by cost, capital allocation and ESG disclosure, not by the asset base.

To rank Equinox against every listed gold producer on the same nine dimensions, screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. From EDGAR and SEDAR+: the Q2 2026 MD&A, interim financial statements and results release (6 August 2026); the FY2025 audited financial statements, MD&A and AIF (31 March 2026); the FY2024 and FY2023 audited financial statements and MD&A; the business acquisition report for Orla (5 August 2026).

Technical reports. The AIF FY2025 reserve and resource summary at 31 December 2025 (NI 43-101); Orla Mining’s reserve release of 19 March 2026 and FY2024 AIF (EDGAR).

Market data. The NYSE American close of US$10.85 and the TSX close of C$15.44 on 13 October 2026 (Yahoo Finance); gold from the World Bank Pink Sheet monthly series to September 2026.

Peers. The FY2025 MD&A of Alamos Gold and Kinross Gold, and Kinross’s FY2025 AIF.

Methodology. As of 13 October 2026, on filings released on or before that date. Base deck US$4,000/oz gold on the US$3,000–5,000/oz grid (step US$500), every grid price run as a scenario; 5% real after tax; weights NAV 50%, EV/EBITDA 30% and FCF-yield support 20%, with the driver line (−0.02) from the Section 9 scorecard; per-share values on 1,247.5 million fully diluted shares at 5 August 2026. Peers are compared on their latest annual filings. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. The model’s further working tables (deck sensitivity, P/NAV map, cross-checks, grid notes) are in claude/valuation-models/equinox-gold-eqx.out.md.

Re-run log. 14 October 2026: first edition, built from the filings to 13 October 2026 on the World Bank deck (US$4,000/oz gold base) and the scorecard’s driver line (−0.02); NAV/share US$12.27; blended fair value US$13.71 at US$10.85, implied +26.3%; read Modestly undervalued (wide band); market-implied gold deck US$3,583/oz; composite 3.2/5 Average. 14 October 2026, gate fixes: the Greenstone Contingent Consideration (US$88.0 m) and the gold prepay swaps (US$11.7 m) charged in the bridge and income taxes payable named as a claim on the working-capital line; NAV/share US$12.27 → US$12.19, blended fair value US$13.71 → US$13.65, implied +25.8%; market-implied deck US$3,593/oz; read unchanged, Modestly undervalued (wide band).

Omitted figures. The asset map is not built; Table 2 and the concentration paragraph carry the footprint. Figure 4 shows FY2025, H1 2026 and the 2026 guidance rather than a five-year series, because FY2021–FY2024 group production is not in the source set; Figure 2 is a single bar because silver revenue is not split in the segment note.

Data gaps and the documents that close them. The NI 43-101 technical reports for Greenstone, Valentine, Musselwhite, Camino Rojo and South Railroad (asset economics, Valentine Phase 2, the South Railroad reserve); Orla’s FY2025 AIF (Camino Rojo and South Railroad reserves at 31 December 2025); the Q3 2026 statements (Orla’s balance sheet at closing); the FY2022 and FY2021 annual filings; the 2025 Sustainability Report (injury rates, tailings); the B2Gold and OceanaGold FY2025 filings; 2027 guidance; an archived consensus capture for the 0% cross-check.

Table 20. Source register — the filed figures behind the valuation (load-bearing inputs: Table 6)

Source: this analysis’ facts file — every figure read back from its filing beside its quoted label; the load-bearing inputs that move the value are Table 6.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed adviser. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 13 October 2026 — the share price, the gold price and the valuation read all move, and reserves, resources and net asset value are estimates at the dates stated; resources are less certain than reserves. The scorecard and the two-axis verdict are an analytical read of quality and price, not a buy or sell instruction. It was prepared with AI assistance from the company’s filings and market data; verify before acting. The author holds no position in Equinox Gold or the peers named.