B2Gold (BTO) — Stock Analysis 2026 [2.6]

Analysis as of 5 November 2026. Price deck: base gold US$4,500/oz — the fixed-grid price nearest the representative trailing average (3-month US$4,303.64, 6-month US$4,290.96 and 12-month US$4,468.92, COMEX daily closes to 5 November 2026) — with every grid price run as a scenario: extreme bear US$3,000, deep bear US$3,500, bear US$4,000, base US$4,500 and bull US$5,000/oz; no analyst consensus is on file at this date, and no forecast and no spot price enter the value. At US$5.30 a share (C$7.40 TSX close, 5 November 2026, at USD/CAD 1.3972) the blended fair value is US$7.31, implied +38.1%, on NAV/share of US$5.50; at the held multiples the share price implies gold at US$3,865/oz. Re-run after each quarterly report. Rating: ★★½ Average / Undervalued (wide band).

B2Gold runs four gold mines — Fekola in Mali, Masbate in the Philippines, Otjikoto in Namibia and the new Goose mine in Nunavut — and guides 820,000–970,000 ounces for 2026 at an all-in sustaining cost of US$2,230–2,410/oz. The thesis in one line: a share price that pays for gold well below its trailing averages, set against the highest costs and the shortest reserve lives in its peer set. Why now: the Q3 2026 report cut the cost guidance, the Goose mill has run at 3,200 tonnes a day since mid-October, and Mali granted the Menankoto exploitation permit in August. To screen B2Gold against every listed gold producer on cost, reserve life and stage, see Metal Pilot’s gold mining stock screener.

1. Snapshot & thesis

B2Gold Corp. (TSX: BTO; NYSE American: BTG; NSX: B2G) is a Canadian mining producer in the precious-metals sector — gold only, reporting in US dollars. It operates every asset it owns: four producing mines (the Fekola Complex in Mali, 80% of the mine and 65% of Fekola Regional; Masbate in the Philippines, 100%; Goose in Nunavut, 100%; Otjikoto in Namibia, 90%), one development project (Gramalote in Colombia, 100%) and the Back River district around Goose.

Figure 1. B2Gold in numbers, as of 5 November 2026

Figure data: Table 1; rating per Section 9, valuation per Section 7.

Thesis in brief. Bull: the market values B2Gold at 3.4 times the forward EBITDA Section 7 builds at US$4,500/oz and a 14.4% free-cash-flow yield, Goose is ramping toward 4,000 tonnes a day, and the balance sheet holds net cash before the convertible notes. Bear: the guided AISC is the highest in the peer set, Fekola and Masbate exhaust their reserves inside seven years and Otjikoto within months, and 27.2% of the asset value sits in Mali. What tips it: whether Goose reaches its rate at the guided cost and Fekola Regional and the indicated ounces convert to reserve before the pits run out — and whether gold holds above the US$4,366/oz flip price.

Table 1. B2Gold in numbers

Source: B2Gold’s filings on SEDAR+ and b2gold.com — the Q3 2026 MD&A (4 November 2026) for guidance, nine-month results and the share count at 4 November 2026; the Q3 2026 interim statements for the balance sheet at 30 September 2026; the FY2025 MD&A, Selected annual information p.5, for FY2025 production, revenue, costs and AISC; the FY2025 AIF p.24 for reserves (NI 43-101, effective 31 December 2025); price per Yahoo Finance, TSX close of 5 November 2026 at USD/CAD 1.3972; valuation per Section 7, rating per Section 9. Note: cash margin is gold revenue less production costs.

How to read this analysis: the statcards and Section 9 carry the verdict; Sections 2–6 carry the evidence, Section 7 the valuation.

2. Assets & operations

B2Gold sells gold only, with a small collar book (Section 3); for how the metal is priced and why miners gear to it, see Gold — A Complete Market Guide. This section covers the four mines, Gramalote and the ground around them.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Table 2. B2Gold asset portfolio, by value

Source: B2Gold FY2025 AIF, Probable Mineral Reserves Statement p.24 (NI 43-101, effective 31 December 2025, US$2,000/oz; Fekola Regional US$1,750/oz) and interests p.24; Q3 2026 MD&A, mine sections pp.6–11 (guidance, Otjikoto interest), Highlights p.3 (Menankoto permit); FY2024 AIF p.102 (Gramalote study). Notes: (1) life is Section 7’s reserve life at the guidance midpoint; (2) rows sorted by Section 7 asset value.

Value is spread across three mines. Of the US$9,803.0 million enterprise NAV, Fekola carries US$2,666.1 million (27.2%), Masbate US$2,566.8 million (26.2%) and Goose US$2,249.8 million (23.0%); the credit for indicated ounces beyond the reserves adds US$1,920.5 million (19.6%), Gramalote US$376.4 million at a 0.40 risk weight and Otjikoto US$23.4 million. No mine exceeds 30%, but Mali and the Philippines together hold over half. The asset map is not drawn (Section 10.1).

2.2 Revenue split

Figure 2. Revenue by commodity, FY2025

Source: B2Gold FY2025 MD&A, Selected annual information p.5 (“Gold revenue”). By-product silver and copper are not reported as revenue lines.

Figure 3. Production by mine — 2026 guidance midpoints (proxy for revenue by asset)

Source: B2Gold Q3 2026 MD&A, mine guidance pp.6–11. Revenue by mine for FY2025 is not in the facts on hand, so guided production stands in.

Gold is the whole revenue line. Fekola is close to half of guided 2026 output; Masbate and Goose are about a fifth each.

2.3 Fekola Complex

Fekola Complex (Mali; 80% of the Fekola Mine and 65% of Fekola Regional, the State of Mali holding 20% and 35%). Open-pit and underground mining at Fekola, with Fekola Regional (Menankoto) alongside. Probable reserves at 31 December 2025 are 47.7 Mt at 1.76 g/t for 2.70 Moz (2.03 Moz attributable at the 65% Regional interest): 1.83 Moz at the mine (33.8 Mt at 1.68 g/t) and 0.88 Moz on Fekola Regional (13.8 Mt at 1.97 g/t). 2026 guidance is 390,000–420,000 oz, unchanged at Q3, at a cash operating cost of US$1,060–1,160/oz produced and an AISC of US$2,350–2,500/oz sold. Q3 2026 ore grades were 1.35 g/t in the open pit and 2.85 g/t underground, with 91.7% recovery over nine months. The Menankoto exploitation permit was granted on 7 August 2026 and pre-stripping began in October; Q3 brought a US$253 million reversal of an earlier Fekola impairment. Encumbrances beyond the State’s interests (royalties) are not in the facts on hand (n/d). Section 7 runs 5.27 years of reserve. The asset risk is Mali itself: its fiscal regime and permits, and the US$329.6 million non-current VAT receivable that Section 7 places there.

2.4 Masbate

Masbate (Philippines, 100%). A low-grade open-pit operation: probable reserves of 62.9 Mt at 0.72 g/t for 1.46 Moz. 2026 guidance is 180,000–200,000 oz at a cash operating cost of US$800–900/oz produced and an AISC of US$1,250–1,400/oz sold, cut at Q3 — the group’s lowest-cost mine. Section 7 runs the reserve for 6.84 years; indicated resources of 3.18 Moz (inclusive) leave 1.72 Moz beyond it. Recovery is not on file (n/d). The asset risk is the grade: at 0.72 g/t there is little room if costs rise.

2.5 Goose

Goose (Back River Gold District, Nunavut, Canada, 100%). The newest mine, with first gold poured on 30 June 2025, and the highest-grade reserve in the group: 10.9 Mt at 6.79 g/t for 2.38 Moz. It produced 39,973 oz in Q3 2026 and 95,739 oz in the first nine months, against 2026 guidance of 170,000–200,000 oz at a cash operating cost of US$1,610–1,810/oz produced and an AISC of US$2,670–2,970/oz sold. The mill has averaged 3,200 tonnes a day since mid-October 2026 and targets 4,000 tonnes a day by the end of the first half of 2027; on those rates Section 7 mines about 303,000 contained ounces in 2027 and 319,000 a year after, for 7.02 years. The remaining capital to 4,000 tonnes a day, the unit cost at that rate and the approvals for it are not on file (n/d). Encumbrance: a gold stream carried at US$254.4 million at 30 September 2026, terms n/d. The asset risk is the ramp: Q3’s 39,973 oz runs well below the rate the reserve life assumes.

2.6 Otjikoto

Otjikoto (Namibia, 90%; EVI holds 10%). The reserve is now 1.2 Mt at 2.33 g/t for 0.09 Moz, in stockpiles and the Wolfshag underground. 2026 guidance is 80,000–100,000 oz at an AISC of US$1,630–1,780/oz sold, cut at Q3. On reserve alone Section 7 runs about two months; the 0.91 Moz of indicated resources (inclusive) and 0.95 Moz inferred are the mine’s future, credited only through the resource tier. The asset risk: without a reserve update Otjikoto stops contributing after 2026.

2.7 Gramalote and the exploration portfolio

Gramalote (Colombia, 100%) holds probable reserves of 76.7 Mt at 0.96 g/t for 2.36 Moz. Its feasibility study of 14 July 2025 gives an after-tax NPV(5%) of US$941 million and a 22.4% IRR at US$2,500/oz, superseding the June 2024 PEA’s US$778 million; no construction decision is taken and the study’s capital is not on file (n/d). Section 7 carries it at 0.40× the study NPV, US$376.4 million. The 2026 exploration budget is about US$80 million. In April 2026 B2Gold sold its 70% of Fingold Ventures to Agnico Eagle for a US$292 million gain.

2.8 Production, reserves & costs

Group output went from 1,061,060 oz in 2023 to 804,778 oz in 2024 and 979,604 oz in 2025, Goose’s first half-year. The first nine months of 2026 brought 634,732 oz (193,321 in Q3), 71% of the 895,000 oz guidance midpoint; the low end needs 185,268 oz in Q4. Consolidated AISC rose from US$1,022/oz in 2022 to US$1,584/oz in 2025 and is guided at US$2,230–2,410/oz for 2026, cut at Q3 from US$2,370–2,550.

Figure 4. Group gold production — FY2023 to 2026 guidance (koz)

Source: B2Gold FY2025 MD&A, Selected annual information p.5 (“Gold produced”, including Goose pre-commercial); Q3 2026 MD&A, Summary and outlook p.30; Q1 2026 MD&A p.2 (2026 guidance).

Figure 5. Reserves and resources by asset

Figure data: B2Gold FY2025 AIF, Probable Mineral Reserves Statement p.24 and Indicated Mineral Resource Statement pp.26–27 (NI 43-101, effective 31 December 2025, 100% basis; reserves at US$2,000/oz, Fekola Regional US$1,750/oz). The filed resources are inclusive of reserves; the exclusive figure is indicated less probable (Derived). No proven reserves or measured resources are reported. Inferred, not drawn: Fekola Complex 3.07, Goose 3.49, Gramalote 2.00, Otjikoto 0.95, Masbate 0.93 Moz (p.27).

Fekola and Goose hold the most reserve. Fekola, Masbate and Otjikoto each carry more indicated ounces outside their reserves than inside — the conversion Section 7 prices at 0.25×.

2.9 Peer positioning

The peers behind the stars in Section 9 are five gold producers with 2025 filings on hand: Kinross Gold (TSX: K), Endeavour Mining (LSE: EDV), Alamos Gold (TSX: AGI), Lundin Gold (TSX: LUG) and OceanaGold (TSX: OGC). None is in a pending takeover; none appears in Section 7.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: B2Gold per Tables 1 and 2; each peer from its own filings on SEDAR+ — Kinross FY2025 AIF and Q2 2026 MD&A; Endeavour FY2025 annual report pp.29, 33, 183; Alamos MD&A 2025 and Q2 2026 MD&A; Lundin Gold AIF 2025 and September 2026 Quarterly; OceanaGold AIF 2025 and Q3 2026 MD&A. Notes: (1) AISC definitions and periods differ by issuer; (2) life is reserves over annual output — FY2025 production for Kinross, Endeavour, Alamos and Lundin Gold, the 2026 guidance midpoint for B2Gold and OceanaGold; B2Gold’s shorter figure excludes Gramalote; (3) net cash is cash less drawn debt on each company’s basis; (4) rows sorted by FY2025 production.

B2Gold is third of six on scale, but its 2026 guided AISC is the highest: about US$500/oz above Alamos’s and OceanaGold’s midpoints and US$1,180/oz above Lundin Gold’s. Its 8.99 Moz sits below Kinross, Endeavour and Alamos; counting only the producing mines, its life of about 7.6 years is the shortest in the set.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Gold revenue rose 60.9% in 2025 to US$3,061.2 million on a realised price of US$3,299/oz (US$2,373 in 2024), and the cash margin widened to 75.6%. Net income of US$426.7 million followed a US$626.7 million loss in 2024, while adjusted net income was US$611.9 million and US$206.5 million: impairments swing reported earnings both ways, and Q3 2026 reversed US$253 million at Fekola. Operating cash flow of US$895.8 million ran 2.1× net income. The first nine months of 2026 brought gold revenue of US$2.78 billion on 680,901 oz sold at US$4,089/oz, net income of US$1,039 million (US$0.70 diluted) and operating cash flow of US$699.3 million, which carried the delivery of the US$285.5 million of prepaid gold outstanding at the end of 2025; free cash flow was US$152 million after US$370 million of sustaining capital, and current income and other taxes took US$492 million. EBITDA is not disclosed; Section 7 builds forward EBITDA of US$2,310.1 million. How these measures fit together is set out in Financial Metrics for Commodity Investing.

The cost deck. 2026 consolidated AISC guidance is US$2,230–2,410/oz sold; by mine, cash operating costs run from US$800–900/oz produced at Masbate to US$1,610–1,810/oz at Goose. The price-linked lines (royalties and production taxes) and the inflation basis are not quantified in the facts on hand (n/d). B2Gold expects Q4 2026 current income tax, withholding and other tax payments of US$154 million at US$4,000/oz. Tax pools are not disclosed: the deferred tax liability was US$251.1 million at 30 September 2026 and operating loss carry-forwards US$84.2 million at the end of 2025.

Balance sheet. At 30 September 2026 cash was US$293.6 million against US$546.2 million of debt at carrying value: the 2.75% convertible notes due 1 February 2030 (US$386.5 million carrying, US$460 million face), US$90.4 million drawn on the US$800 million revolver (maturing 17 December 2028, US$705 million undrawn, covenants met), US$19.8 million of equipment loans and US$49.6 million of leases. Net debt is US$252.6 million with the notes and leases, or net cash of US$133.9 million without the notes, which convert at about US$3.17 a share. That is 0.11× forward EBITDA; at US$3,500/oz, with about US$870 million less EBITDA, about 0.18× (Derived). Other claims: US$306.6 million of income and other taxes payable, US$146.1 million of mine restoration provisions and the US$254.4 million Goose stream. Working capital was US$497 million.

Hedge book. Gold zero-cost collars on 66,548 oz (49,911 oz for the rest of 2026, 16,637 oz in 2027) with a US$2,450/oz floor and a US$3,294/oz ceiling, US$63 million out of the money at 30 September; fuel forwards on 21.1 million litres of fuel oil at US$0.37/L and 29.0 million litres of gas oil at US$0.52/L.

Capital returns. A US$0.02 quarterly dividend (US$0.08 a year, 1.5% at US$5.30); Q3 2026 returned US$26 million in dividends and US$33 million in buybacks, under an NCIB for up to 10% of the shares to 2 April 2027. Diluted weighted shares rose from 1,237.4 million in 2023 to 1,480.9 million in 2025.

Table 4. Five-year financial summary (US$m unless stated)

Source: B2Gold FY2025 MD&A, Selected annual information p.5 (FY2023–FY2025), and FY2024 MD&A, Selected annual information (FY2022); FY2025 and FY2024 audited statements, earnings-per-share notes (diluted shares) and balance sheets pp.8, 9 (net debt). Notes: (1) the FY2021 column, FY2022 capex and net debt, and DPS before FY2024 need the FY2022–FY2023 annual filings, not in the source set; (2) capex from the MD&A reconciliations of sustaining to operating-mine capital (FY2025 MD&A pp.30–31; FY2024 MD&A p.36); growth is operating-mine capital less sustaining, so development outside the operating mines (Goose before 2025, Gramalote) is not in it; net debt is all debt, notes and leases included, less cash, bracketed where cash exceeds it; free cash flow n/d; EBITDA is not disclosed; (3) the FY2024 loss carries impairments.

4. Management, strategy & structure

4.1 Management & governance

Mike Cinnamond became President and CEO on 4 June 2026, succeeding Clive Johnson; he had been Senior Vice President Finance and CFO since 1 July 2013. Kelvin Dushnisky has been Executive Chair since 23 February 2026 and Johnson is Chair Emeritus; Michael McDonald succeeded Cinnamond as CFO on 4 June 2026. The board’s size and independence and the full committee list sit in the 2026 management information circular, not in the source set (n/d); the AIF names the Audit Committee. Women held 40% of board seats at the end of 2025, against a 30% target. Related-party transactions were US$16 million in 9M 2026 (US$11 million a year earlier). Directors and executive officers held 10,407,693 shares on 6 March 2026, about 0.8% of the shares.

4.2 Strategy

The filed strategy is organic: ramp Goose to 4,000 tonnes a day by the end of the first half of 2027 and grow the Back River district around it; bring Fekola Regional into production now that the Menankoto permit is in hand; hold Gramalote at feasibility; and spend about US$80 million on exploration in 2026. Non-core ground is sold, as the Fingold stake was in April 2026. No targets beyond 2026 are filed, and 2027 guidance is not yet issued.

4.3 Ownership & structure

The most material transaction on file is the sale of the 70% Fingold Ventures interest (the Finland Properties) to Agnico Eagle, completed on 23 April 2026 for a US$292 million gain. Minorities: the State of Mali (20% of the Fekola Mine, 35% of Fekola Regional) and EVI (10% of Otjikoto). B2Gold holds a strategic investment in Versamet under an investor rights agreement. Holders of 5% or more are n/d (circular). Shares outstanding were 1,317,220,545 at 4 November 2026; fully diluted, 1,492.2 million with about 145 million convertible-note shares, 20 million options, 4 million RSUs and 6 million PSUs. B2Gold lists on the TSX (BTO), NYSE American (BTG) and the Namibian Stock Exchange (B2G).

5. ESG & sustainability

B2Gold reported a lost-time injury frequency rate of 0.09 for 2025 (release, 26 May 2026) and targets a 30% cut in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030 from a 2021 baseline. Tailings conformance with GISTM, the reporting framework and community spend sit in the 2025 sustainability report, which is not in the source set (n/d), so the ESG star is held at the median on what is filed.

6. Risks

Table 5. Risk register

Source: B2Gold FY2025 AIF, Q3 2026 MD&A and Q3 2026 interim statements; the cases in Section 7. Likelihood and impact are the author’s 1–5 assessment, not disclosed figures.

Figure 6. Risk matrix — likelihood × impact

Source: Table 5. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant. Ratings are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.

Section 7 prices the first five: reserve life sets each mine’s years, the deck sets the read, the cost and Goose cases are its grid notes, and Mali’s risk sits in the jurisdiction star of the driver line, not in the discount rate.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 5 November 2026, in US dollars. Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base gold US$4,500/oz — the 3-month, 6-month and 12-month trailing averages (US$4,303.64, US$4,290.96 and US$4,468.92, COMEX daily closes to 5 November 2026) all sit nearest that price on the US$3,000–5,000 grid; the scenarios run from US$3,000 to US$5,000 in US$500 steps. There is no secondary commodity: gold is the only revenue line B2Gold reports. Discount rate 5% real, after tax — the precious-metal producer rate, sensitised at 4% and 7%. Share price US$5.30 (C$7.40 TSX close on 5 November 2026, the day after the third-quarter MD&A, at USD/CAD 1.3972) on 1,492.2 million fully diluted shares.

B2Gold is valued on the producer (mining) archetype of How to Value Commodity Stocks, mine by mine. The four producing mines are Fekola in Mali (80% of the mine, 65% of the Fekola Regional ground), Goose in Nunavut (100%, ramping up since first gold on 30 June 2025), Masbate in the Philippines (100%) and Otjikoto in Namibia (90%). Gramalote in Colombia is added as a risked development project, along with a credit for the indicated ounces outside the reserves. Net asset value carries half the weight, EV/EBITDA on the next twelve months 30% and free-cash-flow yield support 20%. That is the producer set, unchanged.

Every mine’s life is set by its reserve. Each mine runs at its 2026 guidance midpoints for production and all-in sustaining cost until its 31 December 2025 probable reserve is used up. That reserve is first reduced by the ounces mined since January at the guided rate. On that basis Fekola lasts 5.27 years at its 91.7% recovery and Masbate 6.84 years. Otjikoto, whose reserve is now mostly stockpiles, lasts about two months. Goose is run on tonnes instead. Its 10.9 Mt reserve at 6.79 g/t goes through a mill running at 3,200 tonnes a day since October, rising to 4,000 tonnes a day by the end of the first half of 2027. That gives about 303,000 contained ounces in 2027 and 319,000 a year after, for 7.02 years in all, at the 2026 cost held. Each country’s statutory tax rate is charged on the cash margin, with no depreciation shield: Mali 30%, Canada 27%, the Philippines 25% and Namibia 37.5%.

Three claims sit outside the mine rows. The State of Mali’s interest in Fekola and EVI’s 10% of Otjikoto come off as minorities, at their share of each mine’s value. The Goose gold stream is deducted at its US$254.4 million carrying value, because its terms are not on file. The 2.75% convertible notes are counted as shares, because they convert at about US$3.17 a share, below the price. The target multiples sit 8% below their anchors, set by the Section 9 scorecard. The rest of the section follows the build in order: the vehicle map and the mine rows, the bridge to equity, the multiples on the next twelve months, the free-cash-flow build, and then the five grid prices side by side.

Table 6. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on (full register: Table 20)

Source: the B2Gold filings named in each row, on SEDAR+; the full register closes §10.1 as Table 20.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 18. Near-term catalysts

Source: B2Gold Q3 2026 MD&A (4 November 2026) — Summary and outlook p.30, Highlights p.3, Derivative financial instruments p.16, Liquidity and capital resources; FY2025 AIF p.24. Timing is company guidance, not a guarantee.

Each catalyst adds ounces, years or cash per share — the levers the bear case turns on. As a producer, B2Gold carries no takeover-optionality subsection.

9. Rating & verdict

B2Gold is a mining producer in precious metals, scored on the producer weights against the five Section 2.9 peers: asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation at 15% each, the other four dimensions at 6.25%.

Figure 10. Scorecard by dimension, 5 November 2026

Figure data: Table 19. Each spoke prints its stars and weight; the dashed ring is the weighted composite, 2.55/5.

Table 19. Scorecard rationale — B2Gold, 5 November 2026

Source: each row cites its evidence in this analysis, from B2Gold’s filings on SEDAR+; peers per Table 3, from their own filings.

Weighted average: 0.45 + 0.30 + 0.30 + 0.45 + 0.30 + 0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.125 + 0.1875 = 2.55/5 → ★★½, Average.

The two-axis verdict. As of 5 November 2026, B2Gold rates ★★½ Average and reads Undervalued (wide band): blended fair value US$7.31 against US$5.30, implied +38.1%, on NAV/share of US$5.50 at the US$4,500/oz base — a re-rating candidate, and the catalyst to watch is Goose reaching 4,000 tonnes a day by the end of the first half of 2027. At the held multiples the share price implies gold at US$3,865/oz. The target multiples sit 8% below their anchors, carried down by the two-star cost, reserve, capital-allocation and jurisdiction dimensions; asset quality and the balance sheet hold at three stars and add nothing.

The bull case is cash: at the base deck the mines earn far more than the price pays for, a 14.4% free-cash-flow yield. The bear case is time and place: the highest costs in the set, producing reserves that run out within seven years, and over a quarter of the value in Mali. Reserve conversion tips it. To rank B2Gold against every listed gold producer on cost, reserve life and stage, see Metal Pilot’s gold mining stock screener.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. B2Gold’s filings on SEDAR+, EDGAR and b2gold.com: the FY2025 AIF (11 March 2026; reserves and resources at 31 December 2025, NI 43-101), the FY2024 AIF (the Gramalote study), the FY2025 and FY2024 MD&A and audited statements, the Q1, Q2 and Q3 2026 MD&A, the Q3 2026 interim statements (4 November 2026), the 2026 AGM report of voting results and the 26 May 2026 sustainability release.

Market data. Yahoo Finance for the TSX close of C$7.40 on 5 November 2026 and USD/CAD 1.3972, and COMEX gold (GC=F) daily closes to 5 November 2026. No analyst-consensus capture is on file at the as-of, so that cross-check is n/d.

Methodology. Data as of 5 November 2026; balance sheet at 30 September 2026; share count at 4 November 2026; reserves at 31 December 2025 (NI 43-101), depleted to 5 November 2026 in Section 7. Base deck US$4,500/oz gold on the fixed US$3,000–5,000/oz grid in US$500 steps, no secondary commodity, 5% real after tax (4% and 7% sensitised); weights 50% NAV, 30% EV/EBITDA, 20% FCF yield; target multiples 8% below their anchors from the scorecard’s driver line. NAV/share US$5.50; blended fair value US$7.31 (US$2.42–9.06); implied +38.1%, Undervalued (wide band); market-implied deck US$3,865/oz. Peer basis: the five Section 2.9 producers, each on its own latest filings. Cadence: re-run after each quarterly report.

Re-run log. 6 November 2026: first edition, on the reset model, from the filings to the Q3 2026 MD&A and the TSX close of 5 November 2026: NAV/share US$5.64, blended fair value US$7.25, implied +36.9%, Undervalued (wide band); 2.6/5 Average. Same day, after the pre-launch review: Fekola Regional restated to its 65% interest (Q3 2026 MD&A) and Gramalote to its July 2025 feasibility study — NAV/share US$5.64 → US$5.50, blended fair value US$7.25 → US$7.05, implied +36.9% → +33.1%; read unchanged, Undervalued (wide band). Same day, second fix round: group sustaining capital restated to the four mines’ US$370 million for 9M 2026 (the Fekola Mine’s US$135 million was used) — forward EBITDA US$1,996.6 m → US$2,310.1 m; NAV/share unchanged at US$5.50, blended fair value US$7.05 → US$7.31, implied +33.1% → +38.1%; read unchanged. Same day, third: Table 4 net debt filled for FY2023–FY2025 from the year-end balance sheets; NAV/share, blend and read unchanged.

Figures not drawn. The asset map is not built. Figure 3 uses guided 2026 production by mine as a proxy, because revenue by mine is not in the facts on hand. The Section 3 financial line and the safety trend are not drawn.

Data gaps. The documents that would close them: the 2026 management information circular (board, holders of 5% or more); the 2025 sustainability report (tailings, framework); the FY2025 MD&A mine sections and non-IFRS reconciliations (production, AISC and revenue by mine; free cash flow by year); the FY2022 and FY2023 annual FS and MD&A (the FY2021 column, FY2022 capex and DPS before FY2024); NI 43-101 technical reports for Goose and Gramalote (expansion capital, unit cost, recovery) and the timing of a Gramalote construction decision, not guided; the Goose stream agreement; the option strikes; a dated analyst-consensus capture; and a provider series of five year-end multiples. The deck sensitivity, P/NAV map, cross-checks and grid notes are in the model’s out file, claude/valuation-models/b2gold-bto.out.md; the load-bearing inputs open Section 7 (Table 6) and the full register closes this section (Table 20).

Table 20. Source register — the filed figures behind the valuation (load-bearing inputs: Table 6)

Source: B2Gold’s filings on SEDAR+ and the Yahoo Finance market series named in each row; Table 6 is the load-bearing subset.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 5 November 2026: the price, the multiples and the valuation read all move. Reserve, resource and guidance figures are estimates on the codes stated beside each table. The Quality × Value verdict is an analytical read, never an instruction. This report was prepared with AI assistance (Claude Opus 5.5) from primary filings and the cited market data; check the filings before relying on any figure.