Lundin Gold (LUG) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.8]
Analysis as of 5 November 2026. Price deck: base gold US$4,500/oz — the fixed-grid price nearest the representative trailing average (3-month US$4,303.64, 6-month US$4,290.96 and 12-month US$4,468.92, COMEX daily closes to 5 November 2026) — with every grid price run as a scenario: extreme bear US$3,000, deep bear US$3,500, bear US$4,000, base US$4,500 and bull US$5,000/oz; silver goes to the LunR stream and stays inside the guided costs; no analyst consensus is on file at this date, and no forecast and no spot price enter the value. At US$68.62 a share (C$95.87 TSX close, 5 November 2026, the day after the Q3 2026 results) the market-implied deck is US$6,049/oz gold. Fundamentals are the FY2025 filings and the September 2026 quarterly report of 4 November 2026. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. Rating: ★★★★ Solid / Modestly overvalued (wide band).
Lundin Gold owns and runs Fruta del Norte, a high-grade underground gold mine in southeast Ecuador that produced 498,315 ounces in 2025 at an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,015/oz. The thesis in one line: a debt-free, one-mine producer that paid US$6.53 a share in dividends in the first nine months of 2026, whose share price already pays for gold above every trailing average. Why now: the Q3 2026 report reaffirmed 475,000–525,000 ounces for the year, the FDN South development decision is taken, and Ecuador’s tax authority has issued a US$154 million assessment the company disputes. To screen Lundin Gold against every listed gold producer on cost, reserve life and stage, see Metal Pilot’s gold mining stock screener.
1. Snapshot & thesis
Lundin Gold Inc. (TSX: LUG; OTC: LUGDF) is a Canadian mining producer in the precious-metals sector — gold, with silver streamed away — reporting in US dollars. It owns one mine, Fruta del Norte in Zamora-Chinchipe, Ecuador (100%, through Aurelian Ecuador S.A.), in commercial production since late 2019, and 28 metallic mineral concessions around it. FDN South sits inside the mine’s reserve; the Sandia copper-gold porphyry is the first target outside it.
Figure 1. Lundin Gold in numbers, as of 5 November 2026
Figure data: Table 1; rating per Section 9, valuation per Section 7.
Thesis in brief. Bull: no debt, US$573.6 million of cash and a guided AISC of US$1,110–1,170/oz against a nine-month realised price of US$4,518/oz, with a variable dividend that pays out all normalised free cash flow after the fixed one; the 2025 reserve grew after depletion. Bear: one mine in one country, a head grade of 9.0 g/t that sits above the reserve’s 7.09 g/t average, a price of 2.07× net asset value, and an open tax assessment. What tips it: whether conversion drilling and FDN South hold the grade, and whether gold holds the base deck: the read turns Overvalued below US$4,497/oz.
Table 1. Lundin Gold in numbers
| Metric | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Share price · market capitalisation | $68.62 (C$95.87) · $16.58 bn | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Enterprise value (diluted market value less cash) | $16,125.6 m | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Shares outstanding · fully diluted | 241.6 m · 243.4 m | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 2026 guidance — gold · AISC | 475–525 koz · $1,110–1,170/oz | 30 Sep 2026 |
| 9M 2026 production · AISC | 392.5 koz · $1,102/oz | 30 Sep 2026 |
| FY2025 production · AISC | 498.3 koz · $1,015/oz | FY2025 |
| FY2025 revenue · cash margin | $1,782.9 m · $2,756/oz (76.7%) | FY2025 |
| Free cash flow — FY2025 · 9M 2026 | $925.8 m · $775.4 m | 30 Sep 2026 |
| P&P gold reserves · reserve life | 5.85 Moz at 7.09 g/t · 11.7 years | 31 Dec 2025 |
| M&I gold resources (incl. reserves) · Inferred | 7.48 Moz at 7.13 g/t · 2.03 Moz at 6.17 g/t | 31 Dec 2025 |
| Cash · debt · silver stream obligation | $573.6 m · nil · $692.6 m | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Q3 2026 dividend — fixed · variable | $0.30 · $0.84 a share | 30 Sep 2026 |
| NAV/share · P/NAV | $33.21 · 2.07× | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Blended fair value (range) | $48.07 ($25.65–54.70) | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Valuation read · implied return | Modestly overvalued (wide band) · implied −30.0% | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Market-implied gold deck | $6,049/oz | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Quality rating | ★★★★ Solid | 5 Nov 2026 |
Source: Lundin Gold’s filings on SEDAR+ and lundingold.com — the September 2026 Quarterly (MD&A and interim statements, 4 November 2026) for nine-month results, the balance sheet at 30 September 2026, the dividend and the share count at 4 November 2026; the 2025 annual report for FY2025 production, costs, revenue and free cash flow; the 2026 guidance release; the AIF 2025 (20 March 2026) for reserves and resources (NI 43-101, effective 31 December 2025); price per Yahoo Finance, TSX close 5 November 2026, at USD/CAD 1.3972; valuation rows per Section 7. Notes: (1) market capitalisation on the 241,601,862 shares outstanding at 4 November 2026; (2) cash margin is the realised gold price of $3,594/oz less the cash operating cost of $838/oz sold; (3) resources are inclusive of reserves; (4) reserve life is 5.85 Moz ÷ FY2025 production; (5) the stream obligation is carried at fair value through profit or loss and settled in silver, not cash. Listed: Public (TSX: LUG; OTC: LUGDF).
How to read this analysis: the statcards and Section 9 carry the verdict; Sections 2–6 carry the evidence, Section 7 the valuation.
2. Assets & operations
Lundin Gold sells its gold unhedged, as doré and concentrate; for how the metal is priced and why miners gear to it, see Gold — A Complete Market Guide. This section covers the mine and the ground around it.
2.1 Portfolio overview
Table 2. Lundin Gold asset portfolio, by value
| Asset | Country | Stage | Interest | 2026 guidance | P&P reserves, 31 Dec 2025 | Reserve life | 2026 AISC guidance | Listing / operator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fruta del Norte (incl. FDN South) | Ecuador (Zamora-Chinchipe) | Producing since late 2019; FDN South in development | 100% | 475–525 koz | 5.85 Moz at 7.09 g/t (25.66 Mt) | 11.7 yr | $1,110–1,170/oz | Aurelian Ecuador S.A., 100% subsidiary (Lundin Gold, Public, TSX: LUG) |
| Regional concessions (incl. Sandia) | Ecuador (Zamora-Chinchipe) | Exploration | 100% | — | — | — | — | Lundin Gold (Public, TSX: LUG) |
Source: Lundin Gold AIF 2025 (20 March 2026), Mineral Reserves update p.11 (NI 43-101, effective 31 December 2025); the 2025 annual report, Note 1 p.41 (stage, 28 concessions); the 2026 guidance release, p.1. Notes: (1) reserve life is contained ounces ÷ FY2025 production; Section 7 runs the tonnes at 5,500 tpd for 11.92 years; (2) Sandia’s maiden resource is targeted for early 2027.
Value and revenue are one mine. Fruta del Norte is US$7,098.0 million of the US$7,857.4 million enterprise NAV (90%) and all of 2025’s revenue; the resource credit adds US$866.5 million and two years of non-sustaining capital takes US$107.1 million off. The regional concessions carry no value until a resource is declared. The asset map is not drawn (Section 10.1).
2.2 Revenue split
Figure 2. Revenue by commodity
Source: Lundin Gold 2025 annual report, MD&A Highlights p.8 (revenues) and Non-IFRS measures p.18 (silver revenues); gold is revenues less silver revenues.
Figure 3. Revenue by asset
Source: Lundin Gold 2025 annual report, MD&A Highlights p.8 and Overview p.7 (one operating mine, 100% owned).
Gold is 98.7% of 2025 revenue. Since 1 March 2026 the silver goes to the LunR stream at 10% of spot, so the silver share falls further.
2.3 Fruta del Norte
Fruta del Norte is held 100% through Aurelian Ecuador S.A. under an Exploitation Agreement with the State, in commercial production since late 2019. Three encumbrances sit on it: a 5% net smelter royalty to the Government of Ecuador and a 1% net revenue royalty in perpetuity on the current concessions (royalty expense US$102.8 million in 2025); the LunR silver stream, effective 1 March 2026, which takes 100% of payable silver until 12.2 Moz have been delivered, then 50%, and 7.5% after a further 7.8 Moz, against ongoing payments of 10%, 20% and 30% of spot — sold for US$670 million in 50,505,051 LunR shares; and the Sovereign Adjustment, an annual test of the State’s benefits against the operating company’s cumulative free-cash-flow NPV.
The mill averaged 5,614 tonnes a day in the first nine months of 2026 (5,009 in 2025) at a 9.0 g/t head grade and 88.9% recovery (9.5 g/t and 89.0% in 2025). The process plant expansion targets 5,500 tpd on average, with a mine-to-mill study above it; the tailings expansion supports operations to 2040 at that rate. Proven and probable reserves are 25.66 Mt at 7.09 g/t for 5.85 Moz of gold and 8.89 Moz of silver (NI 43-101, effective 31 December 2025, at US$1,700/oz; prepared by Entech Mining, QP Terry Smith, P.Eng.), including FDN South’s inaugural 2.50 Mt. Measured and indicated resources are 32.61 Mt at 7.13 g/t for 7.48 Moz inclusive, Inferred 10.25 Mt at 6.17 g/t for 2.03 Moz (US$2,000/oz).
The FDN South development decision was taken in early 2026; its capital and the plant expansion’s are not yet guided (n/d), and non-sustaining spend was US$43.2 million in the first nine months, against sustaining guidance of US$75–90 million for the year. The asset risk: the tax authority’s US$154 million notice of assessment over the 2023 sovereign adjustment, including potential fines and penalties and excluding interest, which the company disputes.
2.4 Exploration and regional concessions
The 28 concessions around the mine hold the growth that is not yet in the reserve. A record 121,519 metres were drilled across conversion and near-mine programs in 2025, and the 2026 budget of US$85 million funds 133,000 metres of exploration — the largest program in the company’s history — plus 25,000 metres of conversion. The Sandia copper-gold porphyry targets a maiden resource in early 2027. Newcrest’s earn-in on the regional ground ended in 2023.
2.5 Production, reserves & costs
Output has held near 500 koz: 502,029 ounces in 2024 and 498,315 in 2025 (324,485 in concentrate, 173,830 as doré), then 392,472 in the first nine months of 2026, 153,736 of them in Q3, with the 475,000–525,000 range reaffirmed. Costs have risen with the gold price — royalties and other price-linked lines add US$10/oz to AISC for every US$100/oz of gold. AISC went from US$875/oz in 2024 to US$1,015/oz in 2025 and US$1,102/oz for the nine months (Q3 US$1,037/oz); cash operating cost from US$712 to US$838 and US$946/oz. Reserves rose from 5.54 Moz to 5.85 Moz in 2025 after 0.53 Moz of depletion, a 158% replacement, for 11.7 years at 2025’s output.
Figure 4. Gold output (koz)
Source: Lundin Gold 2025 annual report, Key operating results p.8; September 2026 Quarterly, p.3; 2026 guidance release, p.1.
Nine months of 2026 already make 79% of the 2025 total; the guidance midpoint repeats 2025. The reserves-and-resources-by-asset figure is not drawn — one operating asset (Section 10.1).
2.6 Peer positioning
The peers behind the stars in Section 9 are five Toronto-listed gold producers whose 2025 filings are on hand: Alamos Gold (TSX: AGI), OceanaGold (TSX: OGC), Torex Gold (TSX: TXG), Aris Mining (TSX: ARIS) and Dundee Precious Metals (TSX: DPM). None is in a pending takeover; none appears in Section 7.
Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics
| Company | Listing | FY2025 gold production | FY2025 AISC | P&P gold reserves | Main jurisdictions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lundin Gold | Public (TSX: LUG) | 498.3 koz | $1,015/oz | 5.85 Moz | Ecuador |
| Alamos Gold | Public (TSX: AGI) | 545.4 koz | $1,524/oz | 15.9 Moz | Canada, Mexico |
| OceanaGold | Public (TSX: OGC) | 406.9 koz (excl. Didipio) | n/d | n/d | USA, New Zealand, Philippines |
| Aris Mining | Public (TSX: ARIS) | 227.8 koz (Segovia) | n/d | n/d | Colombia |
| Torex Gold | Public (TSX: TXG) | n/d | n/d | 4.84 Moz AuEq (Morelos) | Mexico |
| Dundee Precious Metals | Public (TSX: DPM) | n/d | n/d | 1.6 Moz | Bulgaria |
Source: Lundin Gold per Table 1; Alamos Gold MD&A 2025 p.4 and AIF 2025; OceanaGold AIF 2025 (Haile 184,733, Macraes 147,007, Waihi 75,125 oz); Aris Mining MD&A 2025 p.7; Torex Gold AIF 2025; Dundee Precious Metals annual report 2025 — all on SEDAR+. Notes: (1) n/d where the peer’s filing could not be tied to the year; (2) AISC definitions differ between issuers. Rows sorted by FY2025 production.
Lundin Gold produces close to Alamos Gold’s group total from one mine, at an AISC US$509/oz lower — the only peer cost on file. Its reserve is just over a third of Alamos’s 15.9 Moz but larger than Torex’s Morelos (4.84 Moz on a gold-equivalent basis) and Dundee’s. The trade-off is plain: the best grade and cost in the set, in one mine and one country.
3. Financials & balance sheet
Revenue has grown every year since 2021, to US$1,782.9 million in 2025 (+49.4%), on a realised price that rose from US$1,772 to US$3,594/oz while the cash margin widened from 64% to 77%. Cash from operations of US$1,023.0 million ran 1.29× net income of US$792.2 million; the FY2024 EBITDA of US$1,021.4 million includes items that the adjusted US$779.5 million removes. The first nine months of 2026 brought revenue of US$1,678.1 million, adjusted EBITDA of US$1,250.7 million and free cash flow of US$775.4 million. For how these measures read, see the financial metrics guide.
The cost deck. 2026 guidance is US$900–960/oz cash cost and US$1,110–1,170/oz AISC per ounce sold, US$75–90 million of sustaining capital and US$85 million of exploration; growth capital is not guided (n/d). Price-linked lines — the 5% NSR, the 1% NRR and the rest — add US$10/oz per US$100/oz of gold. Income tax expense (US$331 million in 2025, US$312.6 million paid) carries 22% corporate tax, a 12% government profit share and 5% withholding on dividends paid from Ecuador; tax pools are not disclosed (n/d).
Balance sheet. At 30 September 2026 the company held US$573.6 million of cash and no borrowings or lease line on the face, so net debt is negative at every grid price; the last project debt went with the US$330 million buyout of Newmont’s stream and offtake in June 2024. Against that sit US$207.7 million of income taxes payable, a US$9.1 million reclamation provision (9.4% pre-tax discount, 1.0% inflation) and the US$692.6 million stream obligation, settled in silver. Gold is unhedged; operations run in US dollars.
Capital returns. A fixed dividend plus a variable one of 100% of normalised free cash flow after it (policy floor 50%): US$0.30 and US$0.84 a share in Q3 2026, US$6.53 paid in the nine months including the LunR shares distributed in June, after US$2.75 in 2025. Buybacks are token — 49,500 shares for US$3.1 million in 2026.
Table 4. Five-year financial summary (US$m unless stated)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 733.3 | 815.7 | 902.5 | 1,193.1 | 1,782.9 |
| YoY % | — | +11.2% | +10.6% | +32.2% | +49.4% |
| Cash margin ($/oz sold) | 1,140 (64.3%) | 1,118 (62.5%) | 1,261 (64.4%) | 1,750 (71.1%) | 2,756 (76.7%) |
| Net income | 221.4 | 73.6 | 179.5 | 426.1 | 792.2 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 0.94 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 1.76 | 3.27 |
| Operating cash flow | 417.8 | 426.1 | 519.4 | 662.4 | 1,023.0 |
| Capex — sustaining / growth | n/d / n/d | 35.5 / n/d | 47.9 / n/d | 51.2 / n/d | 60.3 / 20.9 |
| Free cash flow (company measure) | 268.4 | 269.4 | 263.5 | 304.2 | 925.8 |
| Net debt (cash) | 477.4 | 304.6 | 37.6 | (349.2) | (630.2) |
| Net debt / adjusted EBITDA | 1.09× | 0.65× | 0.07× | net cash | net cash |
| Diluted weighted shares (m) | 234.6 | 236.7 | 239.2 | 241.4 | 242.5 |
| DPS ($) | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 2.75 |
Source: Lundin Gold annual reports 2021–2025 on SEDAR+, MD&A Highlights and Selected annual information (each year from the latest report that prints it). Notes: (1) cash margin is the realised gold price less cash operating cost per ounce sold, with its share of the realised price; (2) net debt is long-term debt less cash, short-term investments excluded; (3) FY2023 free cash flow is the 2024 report’s adjusted row, and FY2024 is after the $330 m stream and offtake buyout; (4) FY2021 sustaining capital is not printed as a year total in the reports searched (the 2021 report’s p.7 lists projects only); growth capital is the non-sustaining line, printed for FY2025 only; (5) no dividend was paid before 2022.
4. Management, strategy & structure
4.1 Management & governance
Jamie Beck became President and CEO on 7 November 2025, after Ron Hochstein left the day before; he was CEO of Filo Corp. until its 2025 acquisition by BHP and Lundin Mining. Chester See has been CFO since August 2024, after serving as SVP Finance and interim CFO. The Chair, Jack Lundin, is also President (since 2022) and CEO (since December 2023) of Lundin Mining Corporation. Six of the nine board nominees are independent; two, Melissa Harmon and Scott Langley, are Newmont’s nominees. The committees are Audit (three directors, all independent); Compensation; and Corporate Governance and Nominating. Related parties: key management pay of US$3.2 million in cash and US$4.8 million in stock-based awards for the nine months of 2026, and US$0.6 million of office rental and services from Namdo Management Services, associated with a director. Directors and officers own 998,191 shares (0.41%).
4.2 Strategy
The frame is one mine, run harder and longer, with the cash paid out. The levers: the process plant expansion to 5,500 tpd on average, with a mine-to-mill expansion study above it; FDN South, developed from the 2026 decision; conversion drilling to replace reserves; and the US$85 million 2026 exploration budget, aimed at near-mine targets and the Sandia porphyry, maiden resource targeted early 2027. Growth is organic; no acquisition method is stated. Returns follow the fixed-plus-variable dividend policy amended in May 2025.
4.3 Ownership & structure
The most material deals: the LunR silver stream (effective 1 March 2026), sold for US$670 million in 50,505,051 LunR Royalties shares that were distributed to shareholders as a dividend-in-kind on 11 June 2026; and the US$330 million buyout of Newmont’s stream facility and offtake on 27 June 2024 — the offtake covered 50% of the mine’s gold up to 2.5 Moz. Newmont became a 32% holder on acquiring Newcrest in November 2023, and Newcrest’s regional earn-in ended that year. Two holders own more than 10%: Newmont, 77,089,349 shares (31.88%), and Nemesia S.à.r.l., controlled by trusts settled by the late Adolf H. Lundin, 63,489,121 (26.26%), of 241,806,676 at 16 March 2026. Strategic holders have anti-dilution rights, exercised for US$11.2 million (252,592 shares) in 2026. The dilutive instruments are options, PSUs, RSUs and DSUs; the share count is 241,601,862 basic and 243,357,290 fully diluted at 4 November 2026.
5. ESG & sustainability
The 2025 sustainability statement follows the ESRS structure with a TCFD-aligned climate report. Safety improved: a total recordable incident rate of 0.22 per 200,000 hours in 2025, with no fatalities, against 0.66 in 2024 and 0.24 in 2023. Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity was 0.10 tCO2e per ounce; no reduction target with a baseline is in the source set (n/d). The fifth tailings dam raise was 85% complete at the end of 2025, due in Q1 2026, and the sixth has started. Community spend is not disclosed (n/d).
6. Risks
Table 5. Risk register
| Risk | Type | Likelihood / impact | Exposure | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grade falls toward the reserve average | Operational | 4 / 4 | 9.0 g/t mined in 9M 2026 against a 7.09 g/t reserve; the reserve grade gives about 398 koz a year (Section 7) | Conversion drilling; 158% reserve replacement in 2025 |
| Ecuador fiscal take and the tax dispute | Jurisdiction | 4 / 3 | $154 m SRI assessment (−$0.63/share); 34.8% combined tax on the margin | Exploitation Agreement and the Sovereign Adjustment test; assessment disputed |
| Gold falls below $4,497/oz | Commodity | 3 / 4 | One commodity, unhedged; the read turns Overvalued below that price | No debt; $573.6 m cash |
| One-mine operating disruption | Operational | 2 / 5 | 100% of revenue from Fruta del Norte | Underground mine with a mill above its 5,500 tpd target |
| FDN South and plant capital not yet guided | Balance sheet / dilution | 3 / 2 | Remaining capital n/d; $43.2 m non-sustaining in 9M 2026 | Funded from cash flow; no debt |
| Tailings and community licence | ESG | 2 / 3 | TSF raises to support operations to 2040 | Fifth raise 85% at YE2025; TCFD-aligned reporting |
| Leadership transition | Operational | 2 / 2 | New CEO since November 2025 | CFO and Chair in place; Lundin-group board |
| Concentrate buyers and terms | Counterparty | 1 / 2 | 324,485 oz sold in concentrate in 2025 | Doré is the other third of output |
Source: Lundin Gold AIF 2025 and 2025 annual report; September 2026 Quarterly (the SRI assessment, p.6); the cases in Section 7. Likelihood and impact are the author’s 1–5 assessment, not disclosed figures.
Figure 5. Risk matrix — likelihood × impact
Rare
Likely
Source: Table 5. Each point prints its likelihood × impact score; the shaded region is the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant. Ratings are the author’s assessment, not disclosed figures.
Section 7 prices the first three: the grade sets the reserve-life ounces, the withholding base and the assessment sit in the gap register, and the deck sets the read. Ecuador’s risk sits in the jurisdiction star, not the discount rate.
7. Valuation
Valuation as of 5 November 2026, in US dollars. Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base gold US$4,500/oz — the 3-month, 6-month and 12-month trailing averages (US$4,303.64, US$4,290.96 and US$4,468.92, COMEX daily closes to 5 November 2026) all sit nearest that price on the US$3,000–5,000 grid; the scenarios run from US$3,000 to US$5,000 in US$500 steps. Silver is held inside the guided costs: since 1 March 2026 all of Fruta del Norte’s payable silver goes to the LunR Royalties stream at 10% of the silver price, so the company keeps a by-product that was 1.3% of revenue before the stream. Discount rate 5% real, after tax — the precious-metal producer rate, sensitised at 4% and 7%. Share price US$68.62 (C$95.87 TSX close on 5 November 2026, the day after the third-quarter results, at USD/CAD 1.3972) on 243.4 million fully diluted shares.
Lundin Gold is valued on the producer (mining) archetype of How to Value Commodity Stocks, on one asset: Fruta del Norte in southeast Ecuador, held 100% and producing since late 2019, with the FDN South reserve inside its 31 December 2025 statement. The build takes that mine, less the non-sustaining capital now being spent on FDN South and the plant expansion, plus a risked credit for the measured and indicated ounces outside the reserve. Net asset value carries half the weight, EV/EBITDA on the next twelve months 30% and free-cash-flow yield support 20% — the producer set, unchanged.
The mine’s life is set by tonnes, not by this year’s ounces. The 25.66 Mt reserve, less what the mill has processed since January, lasts 11.92 years at the 5,500 tonnes a day the company expects after its plant expansion. Over that life the reserve’s 7.09 g/t grade, at the 88.9% recovery achieved in 2026, gives about 398,000 ounces a year — well under the 475,000–525,000 guided for 2026, when the mill is feeding ore near 9 g/t. The 2026 all-in sustaining cost guidance, US$1,110–1,170/oz, is carried as a cost per tonne milled, which lifts the unit cost to about US$1,402/oz at the reserve grade; the royalty and other price-linked lines move by US$10/oz for every US$100/oz of gold. Ecuador’s tax is charged on the cash margin with no depreciation shield: the 12% government profit share, 22% income tax on the rest and 5% withholding on the distributed balance, 34.8% combined.
Two claims sit outside the build. The silver stream’s US$692.6 million obligation is not deducted, because the silver it takes is already out of the rows; the tax authority’s US$154 million assessment over the 2023 sovereign adjustment is disputed and not provided for, so it is named in the gap register with its bound. The rest of the section follows the build in order: the vehicle map and the mine’s row, the bridge to equity, the multiples on the next twelve months, the free-cash-flow build, and then the five grid prices side by side.
Table 6. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on (full register: Table 20)
| Input | Value | Where §7 uses it | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 gold production guidance (oz), reaffirmed at Q3 2026 | 475,000–525,000 | Table 9, cost per tonne; Table 13, volume | Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · “Gold Production (oz)" · p.1 |
| 2026 guidance — AISC; cash operating cost (US$/oz sold); price-linked cost per +US$100/oz gold | $1,110–1,170; $900–960; +$10/oz | Table 9, margin row; Table 13, cash cost | Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · “AISC” · p.1; Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · “Cash operating cost” · p.1; Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Overview · “For every $100 per oz increase in gold price” · p.7 |
| Fruta del Norte P&P reserves, 31 Dec 2025 — tonnes; grade; contained gold | 25.66 Mt; 7.09 g/t; 5.85 Moz | Table 9, reserve life and recoverable gold; block 3, value per reserve ounce | Filed · AIF 2025 · General development · Mineral Reserves update · “Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves are reported at” · p.11 |
| M&I exclusive of reserves; inferred, 31 Dec 2025 (Moz) | 1.63; 2.03 | Table 9, block 3 (inferred at 0.0) | Derived · M&I inclusive 7.48 Moz less P&P 5.85 Moz (AIF 2025 p.11); Filed · AIF 2025 · General development · Mineral Resources update · “Inferred Mineral Resources of” · p.11 |
| Mill throughput 9M 2026; expected average after the plant expansion (tpd); recovery 9M 2026 | 5,614; 5,500; 88.9% | Table 9, depletion, plan rate and recoverable gold | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Key operating results · “Average mill throughput” · p.3; Filed · Annual report 2025 · Letter to shareholders · “we expect to deliver average throughput of” · p.5; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Key operating results · “Average mill head grade” · p.3 |
| Gold produced, Q3 2026; 9M 2026 (oz) | 153,736; 392,472 | Table 9, depletion to 5 Nov 2026 | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Key operating results · “Gold ounces produced” · p.3 |
| LunR silver stream — share of payable silver; ongoing payment (% of the silver price); first step-down (Moz); P&P silver (Moz) | 100%; 10%; 12.2; 8.89 | Table 8, stream in the rows; Table 17, field 3 | Filed · AIF 2025 · General development · Silver stream · “silver stream-for-equity transaction” · p.11; Filed · AIF 2025 · General development · Silver stream · “will receive ongoing payments equal to” · p.11; Filed · AIF 2025 · Mineral Reserve statement · “of silver in the Proven and Probable categories” · p.31 |
| Ecuador — corporate income tax; dividend withholding tax; government profit share | 22%; 5%; 12% | Table 9, (1 − tax) at the combined rate; Table 15, cash tax | Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Income taxes · “which are levied at a rate of” · p.13 |
| Cash and cash equivalents, 30 Sep 2026 (US$000); no debt on the face | $573,614 | Table 11, net cash | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Cash and cash equivalents” · p.20 |
| Reclamation provisions; income taxes payable; silver stream obligation, current and non-current — 30 Sep 2026 (US$000) | $9,051; $207,717; $34,052 + $658,584 | Table 11, reclamation and tax line; stream excl. | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Reclamation provisions” · p.20; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Income taxes payable” · p.20; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Current portion of silver stream obligation” · p.20; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Silver stream obligation” · p.20 |
| Trade receivables and other current assets; inventories; accounts payable and accrued liabilities; other current liabilities — 30 Sep 2026 (US$000) | $203,396; $105,572; $141,400; $22,319 | Table 11, working capital | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Trade receivables and other current assets” · p.20; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Inventories” · p.20; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Accounts payable and accrued liabilities” · p.20; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · “Other current liabilities” · p.20 |
| 2026 sustaining capital guidance (US$ m); non-sustaining capital 9M 2026 (US$ m); 2026 exploration budget (US$ m) | $75–90; $43.2; $85 | Table 9, block 2; Table 11, corporate cost; Table 15, sustaining | Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · “Sustaining Capital” · p.1; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Liquidity · “non-sustaining capital expenditures of” · p.11; Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · “Exploration Program ($ million)" · p.1 |
| FY2025 revenues (US$000); gold sold (oz); cash operating cost (US$/oz); adjusted EBITDA (US$000) | $1,782,940; 503,330; $838; $1,235,810 | Table 13, costs between cash cost and EBITDA; Table 11, corporate cost | Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Key financial results · “Revenues” · p.8; Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Key operating results · “Gold ounces sold” · p.8; Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Key financial results · “Cash operating cost” · p.8; Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Key financial results · “Earnings before interest, taxes” · p.8 |
| Common shares outstanding; options; PSUs; RSUs; DSUs (4 Nov 2026); D&A 9M 2026 (US$000) | 241,601,862; 1,221,147; 275,037; 185,951; 73,293; $99,299 | Table 11, fully diluted shares; Table 15, cash tax base | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Outstanding share data · “common shares issued and outstanding” · p.13; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Outstanding share data · “options outstanding to purchase a total of” · p.13; Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Non-IFRS reconciliation · “Depletion and depreciation” · p.15 |
Source: the Lundin Gold filings named in each row; the full register closes §10.1 as Table 20.
8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)
Table 18. Near-term catalysts
| Catalyst | Timing (company guidance) | Why it benefits Lundin Gold |
|---|---|---|
| FDN South development and its capital guidance | Decision taken early 2026; capital to be guided once studied | Brings the 2.50 Mt inaugural reserve into the mill feed |
| 2026 exploration program, $85 m | Through 2026 | 25,000 m of conversion drilling feeds reserve replacement |
| Sandia maiden resource | Early 2027 (targeted) | The first resource outside Fruta del Norte |
Source: Lundin Gold September 2026 Quarterly (4 November 2026), the 2026 guidance release and the 2025 annual report. Timing is company guidance, not a guarantee.
Each catalyst either holds the grade and the tonnes or adds ounces — the levers the bear case turns on. As a producer, Lundin Gold carries no takeover-optionality subsection.
9. Rating & verdict
Lundin Gold is a mining producer in precious metals, scored on the producer weights against the five Section 2.6 peers: asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation at 15% each, the other four dimensions at 6.25%.
Figure 9. Scorecard by dimension, 5 November 2026
Figure data: Table 19. Each spoke prints its stars and weight; the dashed ring is the weighted composite, 3.84/5.
Table 19. Scorecard rationale — Lundin Gold, 5 November 2026
| Dimension | Weight | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Asset quality & scale | 15% | ★★★★ | One mine at 498.3 koz in 2025, near Alamos Gold’s 545.4 koz group total, at a 9.0–9.5 g/t head grade; held from five stars by its single-asset concentration (Tables 2, 3; Section 2.3) |
| 2. Cost position & margins | 15% | ★★★★★ | FY2025 AISC $1,015/oz, $509/oz below Alamos Gold’s $1,524/oz; 2026 guidance $1,110–1,170/oz; FY2025 cash margin 76.7% (Tables 1, 3, 4) |
| 3. Reserves, life & replacement | 15% | ★★★★ | 5.85 Moz P&P at 7.09 g/t, 11.7 years; 158% replacement in 2025; above Torex’s 4.84 Moz gold-equivalent and Dundee’s 1.6 Moz, a third of Alamos’s 15.9 Moz (Table 3; Section 2.5) |
| 5. Balance sheet & liquidity | 15% | ★★★★ | Cash $573.6 m and no debt or leases at 30 Sep 2026; held from five stars by the $692.6 m stream obligation and $207.7 m of taxes payable; peers’ balance sheets n/d (Section 3) |
| 6. Capital allocation & returns | 15% | ★★★★ | Variable dividend of 100% of normalised free cash flow; $2.75 paid in 2025 and $6.53 in 9M 2026 with the LunR shares; the $330 m stream and offtake buyout of 2024; buybacks token; peers’ records n/d (Sections 3, 4.3) |
| 4. Growth & optionality | 6.25% | ★★★ | 2026 midpoint level with 2025; FDN South and the 5,500 tpd expansion unguided on capital; Sandia maiden resource early 2027 on an $85 m exploration budget; Aris Mining, the peer with filed guidance, guides 2026 up from 227.8 koz to 265–300 koz (Table 3; Sections 2.4, 4.2) |
| 7. Management & governance | 6.25% | ★★★ | CEO Beck since November 2025; six of nine nominees independent; the Chair also runs Lundin Mining; $0.6 m of Namdo services; 58.1% held by Newmont and Nemesia; peers’ governance n/d, scored at the median (Section 4) |
| 8. Jurisdiction & geopolitics | 6.25% | ★★ | All value in Ecuador; the $154 m SRI assessment disputed; the Sovereign Adjustment and a 34.8% combined tax on the margin; every peer but Aris spread across safer or several jurisdictions (Table 3; Sections 2.3, 6) |
| 9. ESG & licence to operate | 6.25% | ★★★ | TRIR 0.22 and no fatalities in 2025; 0.10 tCO2e/oz; TCFD-aligned reporting; tailings raises on schedule; peers’ safety rates n/d (Section 5) |
| Composite | 100% | ★★★★ | Solid |
Source: each row cites its evidence in this analysis, from Lundin Gold’s filings on SEDAR+; peers per Table 3, 2025 filings.
Weighted average: 0.60 + 0.75 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.60 + 0.1875 + 0.1875 + 0.125 + 0.1875 = 3.84/5 → ★★★★, Solid.
The two-axis verdict. As of 5 November 2026, Lundin Gold rates ★★★★ Solid and reads Modestly overvalued (wide band): blended fair value US$48.07 against US$68.62, implied −30.0%, on NAV/share of US$33.21 at the US$4,500/oz base — full: a first-rate mine whose price runs ahead of its reserve. At the held multiples the share price implies gold at US$6,049/oz. The target multiples sit 10% above their anchors, carried by the cost star (★★★★★) and the four-star asset, reserve, balance-sheet and capital-allocation terms, less two points for Ecuador (★★).
The bull case is margin: the lowest cost in the peer set, no debt and every spare dollar paid out. The bear case is grade and place: the mine is feeding ore well above its reserve average, all of it in one country with an open tax dispute. Grade tips it. To rank Lundin Gold against every listed gold producer on cost, reserve life and stage, see Metal Pilot’s gold mining stock screener.
10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer
10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage
Company filings. Lundin Gold’s filings on SEDAR+ and lundingold.com: the AIF 2025 (20 March 2026; reserves and resources at 31 December 2025, NI 43-101), the annual reports 2021–2025 (MD&A and consolidated statements), the September 2026 Quarterly (MD&A and interim statements, 4 November 2026), the 2026 guidance release, the 2026 management information circular, the 2025 sustainability statement and the Fruta del Norte NI 43-101 technical report (amended 29 March 2023). Peers’ 2025 filings as in Table 3.
Market data. Yahoo Finance for the TSX close of C$95.87 on 5 November 2026 and USD/CAD 1.3972, and COMEX gold (GC=F) daily closes to 5 November 2026. No analyst-consensus capture is on file at the as-of, so that cross-check is n/d.
Methodology. Data as of 5 November 2026; balance sheet at 30 September 2026; share count at 4 November 2026; reserves at 31 December 2025 (NI 43-101), depleted to 5 November 2026 in Section 7. Base deck US$4,500/oz gold on the fixed US$3,000–5,000/oz grid in US$500 steps, silver to the LunR stream, 5% real after tax (4% and 7% sensitised); weights 50% NAV, 30% EV/EBITDA, 20% FCF yield; target multiples 10% above their anchors from the scorecard’s driver line. NAV/share US$33.21; blended fair value US$48.07 (US$25.65–54.70), implied −30.0%, Modestly overvalued (wide band); market-implied deck US$6,049/oz. Scorecard: producer weights against the five peers in Table 3, on their 2025 filings. US dollars, IFRS, calendar year. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events.
Re-run log. 6 November 2026: first edition, on the reset model, from the filings to the September 2026 Quarterly and the TSX close of 5 November 2026: NAV/share US$39.63, blended fair value US$54.11, implied −21.1%, Modestly overvalued (wide band); 3.8/5 Solid. 6 November 2026 (fix round): Ecuador’s tax put on the filing’s structure — 12% government profit share, 22% income tax, 5% dividend withholding, 34.8% combined in place of 22% — NAV/share US$33.21 (from US$39.63), blended fair value US$48.07 (from US$54.11), implied −30.0% (from −21.1%), read unchanged, Modestly overvalued (wide band); 3.8/5 Solid.
Figures not drawn. The asset map is not built. The reserves-and-resources-by-asset figure is skipped — one operating asset. Figure 4 starts at 2024, the first year whose production is in the facts on hand; the Section 3 financial line is not drawn.
Data gaps. The documents that would close them: a life-of-mine plan newer than the March 2023 technical report (grade by year, FDN South); the FDN South and plant-expansion capital guidance; the investor rights agreements behind the anti-dilution rights; a dated analyst-consensus capture; a provider series of five year-end multiples; and the peer lines that could not be tied to a year (Table 3). The deck sensitivity, P/NAV map, cross-checks and grid notes are in the model’s out file, claude/valuation-models/lundin-gold-lug.out.md; the load-bearing inputs open Section 7 as Table 6, and every input the valuation quotes closes this section as Table 20.
Table 20. Source register — the filed figures behind the valuation (load-bearing inputs: Table 6)
| Input | Value | As of | Where §7 uses it | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual information form, year ended 31 December 2025 (20 March 2026) | ||||
| FDN Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves, 31 Dec 2025 — tonnes · grade · contained gold | 25.66 Mt · 7.09 g/t · 5.85 Moz | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 9, reserve life and recoverable gold; block 3, value per reserve ounce | Filed · AIF 2025 · General development · Mineral Reserves update · "Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves are reported at" · p.11 |
| FDN P&P silver contained, 31 Dec 2025 | 8.89 Moz Ag | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 8, stream in the rows; Table 17, field 3 | Filed · AIF 2025 · Mineral Reserve statement · "of silver in the Proven and Probable categories" · p.31 |
| FDN Inferred Mineral Resources, 31 Dec 2025 | 10.25 Mt · 6.17 g/t · 2.03 Moz | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 9, block 3 (inferred at 0.0) | Filed · AIF 2025 · General development · Mineral Resources update · "Inferred Mineral Resources of" · p.11 |
| LunR silver stream (effective 1 Mar 2026) — $670m stream-for-equity: 100% of FDN payable silver, stepping to 50% after 12.2 Moz and 7.5% after a further 7.8 Moz; ongoing 10%/20%/30% of spot; for 50,505,051 LunR shares | $670 m · 100% → 50% after 12.2 Moz → 7.5% after 7.8 Moz | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 8, stream in the rows; Table 17, field 3 | Filed · AIF 2025 · General development · Silver stream · "silver stream-for-equity transaction" · p.11 |
| LunR silver stream — ongoing payments as % of spot silver before each step-down | 10% · 20% · 30% | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 8, stream in the rows; Table 17, field 3 | Filed · AIF 2025 · General development · Silver stream · "will receive ongoing payments equal to" · p.11 |
| Annual report 2025 (MD&A and consolidated financial statements, year ended 31 December 2025) | ||||
| Gold sold, FY2025 · FY2024 (oz) | 503,330 oz · 495,374 oz | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 13, costs between cash cost and EBITDA; Table 11, corporate cost | Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Key operating results · "Gold ounces sold" · p.8 |
| Cash operating cost, FY2025 · FY2024 ($/oz sold) | $838 · $712 | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 13, costs between cash cost and EBITDA; Table 11, corporate cost | Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Key financial results · "Cash operating cost" · p.8 |
| AISC and cash operating cost sensitivity to gold price — per $100/oz increase in gold | +$10/oz per +$100/oz gold | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 9, margin row; Table 13, cash cost | Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Overview · "For every $100 per oz increase in gold price" · p.7 |
| Expected average throughput after the process plant expansion; mine-to-mill expansion study above it | 5,500 tpd | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 9, depletion, plan rate and recoverable gold | Filed · Annual report 2025 · Letter to shareholders · "we expect to deliver average throughput of" · p.5 |
| Revenues, FY2025 ($000) | $1,782,940 | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 13, costs between cash cost and EBITDA; Table 11, corporate cost | Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Key financial results · "Revenues" · p.8 |
| EBITDA · adjusted EBITDA, FY2025 ($000) | $1,235,810 · $1,235,810 | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 13, costs between cash cost and EBITDA; Table 11, corporate cost | Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Key financial results · "Earnings before interest, taxes" · p.8 |
| Ecuador corporate income tax rate; dividend withholding tax; government profit share (both in income tax expense) | 22%; 5%; 12% | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 9, (1 − tax) at the combined rate; Table 15, cash tax | Filed · Annual report 2025 · MD&A · Income taxes · "which are levied at a rate of" · p.13 |
| Lundin Gold provides 2026 guidance and strategic three-year outlook (release) | ||||
| 2026 gold production guidance (oz) | 475,000–525,000 oz | 31 Dec 2026 | Table 9, cost per tonne; Table 13, volume | Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · "Gold Production (oz)" · p.1 |
| 2026 AISC guidance ($/oz sold) | $1,110–1,170 | 31 Dec 2026 | Table 9, margin row; Table 13, cash cost | Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · "AISC" · p.1 |
| 2026 cash operating cost guidance ($/oz sold) | $900–960 | 31 Dec 2026 | Table 9, margin row; Table 13, cash cost | Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · "Cash operating cost" · p.1 |
| 2026 sustaining capital guidance ($ m) | $75–90 m | 31 Dec 2026 | Table 9, block 2; Table 11, corporate cost; Table 15, sustaining | Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · "Sustaining Capital" · p.1 |
| 2026 exploration program budget | $85 m | 31 Dec 2026 | Table 9, block 2; Table 11, corporate cost; Table 15, sustaining | Filed · Guidance release 2026 · 2026 guidance table · "Exploration Program ($ million)" · p.1 |
| Third quarter 2026 shareholder report (MD&A and condensed interim financial statements, 30 September 2026) | ||||
| Gold produced, Q3 2026 · 9M 2026 (oz) | 153,736 oz · 392,472 oz | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 9, depletion to 5 Nov 2026 | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Key operating results · "Gold ounces produced" · p.3 |
| Average mill head grade · recovery, 9M 2026 | 9.0 g/t · 88.9% | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 9, depletion, plan rate and recoverable gold | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Key operating results · "Average mill head grade" · p.3 |
| Average mill throughput, 9M 2026 (tpd) | 5,614 tpd | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 9, depletion, plan rate and recoverable gold | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Key operating results · "Average mill throughput" · p.3 |
| Non-sustaining capital expenditures, 9M 2026 | $43.2 m | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 9, block 2; Table 11, corporate cost; Table 15, sustaining | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Liquidity · "non-sustaining capital expenditures of" · p.11 |
| Depletion and depreciation, Q3 2026 · 9M 2026 ($000) | $37,472 · $99,299 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, fully diluted shares; Table 15, cash tax base | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Non-IFRS reconciliation · "Depletion and depreciation" · p.15 |
| Cash and cash equivalents, 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $573,614 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, net cash | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Cash and cash equivalents" · p.20 |
| Trade receivables and other current assets, 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $203,396 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, working capital | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Trade receivables and other current assets" · p.20 |
| Inventories, 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $105,572 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, working capital | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Inventories" · p.20 |
| Accounts payable and accrued liabilities, 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $141,400 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, working capital | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Accounts payable and accrued liabilities" · p.20 |
| Income taxes payable (current tax liability), 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $207,717 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, reclamation and tax line; stream excl. | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Income taxes payable" · p.20 |
| Other current liabilities, 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $22,319 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, working capital | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Other current liabilities" · p.20 |
| Current portion of silver stream obligation (FVTPL), 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $34,052 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, reclamation and tax line; stream excl. | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Current portion of silver stream obligation" · p.20 |
| Silver stream obligation, non-current (FVTPL), 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $658,584 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, reclamation and tax line; stream excl. | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Silver stream obligation" · p.20 |
| Reclamation provisions, 30 Sep 2026 ($000) | $9,051 | 30 Sep 2026 | Table 11, reclamation and tax line; stream excl. | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · Condensed interim balance sheet · "Reclamation provisions" · p.20 |
| Common shares issued and outstanding at the date of the Q3 2026 MD&A (4 Nov 2026) | 241,601,862 | 4 Nov 2026 | Table 11, fully diluted shares; Table 15, cash tax base | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Outstanding share data · "common shares issued and outstanding" · p.13 |
| Dilutive instruments at the Q3 2026 MD&A date — options · PSUs · RSUs · DSUs | 1,221,147 · 275,037 · 185,951 · 73,293 | 4 Nov 2026 | Table 11, fully diluted shares; Table 15, cash tax base | Filed · September 2026 Quarterly · MD&A · Outstanding share data · "options outstanding to purchase a total of" · p.13 |
| Market data, 5 November 2026 | ||||
| Gold (COMEX front month) — 3-, 6- and 12-month averages of daily closes to 5 Nov 2026 | US$4,303.64; US$4,290.96; US$4,468.92/oz | 5 Nov 2026 | Opening block and Table 17, deck field (base US$4,500/oz) | Market · Yahoo Finance · "GC=F" daily closes to 5 Nov 2026 |
| Gold (COMEX front month) — average of daily closes 8 Nov 2021 – 5 Nov 2026 (five years); low; high | US$2,746.49/oz; US$1,630.90 (3 Nov 2022); US$5,318.40 (29 Jan 2026) | 5 Nov 2026 | Table 17, deck field; market-implied deck context (conclusion) | Market · Yahoo Finance · "GC=F" daily closes to 5 Nov 2026 |
| Lundin Gold share price — TSX close; USD/CAD | C$95.87; 1.3972 | 5 Nov 2026 | Table 11, current share price (US$68.62) | Market · Yahoo Finance · "LUG.TO" and "CAD=X" daily closes, 5 Nov 2026 |
| Derived | ||||
| FDN M&I exclusive of reserves — contained gold (M&I inclusive − P&P) | 1.63 Moz | 31 Dec 2025 | Table 9, block 3 (inferred at 0.0) | Derived · M&I inclusive 7.48 Moz less P&P 5.85 Moz (AIF 2025 p.11) |
Source: Lundin Gold’s filings on SEDAR+ and the Yahoo Finance market series named in each row; Table 6 is the load-bearing subset.
10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure
This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 5 November 2026: the price, the multiples and the valuation read all move. Reserve, resource and guidance figures are estimates on the codes stated beside each table. The Quality × Value verdict is an analytical read, never an instruction. This report was prepared with AI assistance (Claude Opus 5.5) from primary filings; verify every figure against the original documents. The author holds no position in Lundin Gold or any company named here.