Monthly Commodity Market Summary (30 Oct 2026)

Four weeks to Friday 30 October 2026. Changes run from the 2 October close. Prices at the 30 October close; reports as last released, each dated in its table — EIA weeks to 23 October, positioning 27 October, claims 24 October, payrolls and consumer prices for September. Prepared with AI assistance — see the disclosure at the end.

Oil’s shortage kept inflation high and Treasury yields fell, yet gold, which both usually lift, lost 4.9%. This commodity monthly covers the four weeks to 30 October, in which the Fed held its range at 3.75–4.00% while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 34 basis points to 4.94% as technology stocks sold off. With consumer prices up 3.7% on the year and the real yield down 32 basis points, the month reads as high inflation with falling real rates on the regime map (§8); payrolls on 6 November and consumer prices on 10 November test that reading first.

Oil fitted it: Brent rose 15.1% to $117.64 as attacks on Saudi energy sites deepened the Hormuz shortage. Gold broke it, sold for cash in the 22 October sell-off and on the odds of a December hike. US gas fell 13.3% on a mild forecast while Europe’s TTF rose 39.0%; copper gained 0.7% as London’s stocks rose, and uranium futures 3.0% while the miners were sold with the AI trade. The data behind each market — flows, stocks, positioning and the companies that produce them — are tracked on Metal Pilot.

The month’s events — each told in full in its section:

• Backdrop — the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic has not recovered since March: 3.3 ships a day in the week to 23 October against 95.4 a year earlier, the shortage behind the oil price and Europe’s gas price (§4, §5).
• Wed 14 Oct — a hot CPI. September’s consumer prices rose 3.7% on the year against 3.6% expected, and the odds of an October hike jumped from 21% to 47% before fading by the close (§2).
• Thu 22 Oct — the technology sell-off. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% and the 10-year yield 17 basis points to 4.96%; gold fell with stocks as investors sold metal to meet margin calls (§2, §3).
• Fri 23 Oct — Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites. Brent rose 3.1% to $116.72, its highest close since 29 April, and the oil spike revived bets on a Fed hike: gold’s LBMA price ended the week 3.7% lower (§4, §3).
• Mon 26 Oct — Henry Hub at a six-month low. Forecasts warmer than normal took November gas futures to $2.602, the lowest settlement since 28 April (§5).
• Wed 28 Oct — the Fed holds. The range stayed at 3.75–4.00% on a 10–2 vote, the two dissenters wanting a hike; futures priced an 85% chance of one in December (§2, §3).
• Fri 30 Oct — TTF above €100 and Brent’s December expiry. Europe’s gas benchmark settled at €103.94, up 39% on the month, and ICE Brent’s December contract expired 2.4% higher at $117.64 (§4, §5).

1. Summary of the month

Stocks, gold and US gas fell together while oil rose on its own shortage — October traded on supply, weather and a scramble for cash, not on the dollar or credit. The dollar index ended unchanged at 101.88 and the high-yield spread widened only 2 basis points, to 326 on 29 October, so neither the currency nor credit explains the split. The Nasdaq Composite lost 6.5%, and the gold/oil ratio fell 17.3% to 33.8 barrels an ounce.

Table 1. The five markets, four weeks to 30 October 2026

Source: Westmetall (gold, copper), Yahoo Finance (Brent, Henry Hub, ICE’s dollar index and the S&P 500 on 29–30 October), SP Angel (uranium), the US Treasury (real yield), FRED and Nasdaq. Gold is the LBMA Gold Price AM and copper the LME cash price. Brent is ICE’s December contract, the front month on 2 October and until it expired on 30 October. Henry Hub is NYMEX’s December, the front month since November expired on 28 October; its month change is struck on December’s own settlement of 2 October, $3.341, so the roll from November ($3.035 that day) does not enter it. The year and year-to-date bases of both are the front month’s settlement on 31 October and 31 December 2025, from Yahoo’s continuous series (BZ=F, NG=F). Uranium is the CME UxC front month at the 29 October close, the latest published, its month change from the 25 September close, the latest held four weeks before it. The dollar index is ICE’s own daily close (DX-Y.NYB) on every date; the real yield is the Treasury’s 10-year real yield (FRED’s DFII10); the S&P 500 is FRED’s SP500 to 28 October; the gold/oil ratio is the LBMA AM price over the Brent close. Month is four weeks and Year fifty-two; year to date runs from the last close of 2025. Positive changes are accented.

Figure 1. Oil led and US gas fell furthest — change on the month, the five markets and their context, four weeks to 30 October 2026

Source: Table 1 — every row whose change is in per cent but the gold/oil ratio, which divides two prices the figure already draws; it stays in the table with the 10-year real yield (−32 bp on the month), which moves in basis points.

Over the year the pairing gold usually follows has run against it: the real yield is up 79 basis points while gold is down only 0.8%.

The month’s market-moving Fed and US releases, and those ahead, are in the calendar below; each market’s own reports close its section.

Table 2. Macro and policy calendar — the month to 30 October, then the month ahead

Source: each row links to its publisher’s report or a report of it — September’s consumer prices via investingLive, producer prices via XTB, the Fed’s decision via Kiplinger, output and PCE prices from the BEA; the dates ahead from the BLS, BEA and USA.gov schedules, the hike odds from Table 4. Impact: ★★★ market-defining, ★★ a clear same-day reaction, ★ tone-setting — graded on the observed move above the line, on the reference tiers below it. Only events graded ★★ or ★★★ are listed; every calendar in this post covers the four weeks to the close and the month after it.

October’s consumer prices on 10 November matter most. They come four days after the payrolls and a month before the December meeting the market prices for a hike: a rate at or above September’s 3.7% keeps the month’s reading of high inflation (§8), and moves the real yield gold and copper trade against.

2. Rates, bonds and the dollar

What a yield is made of is in The Monetary System, Part 2; how the Fed sets the rate, and why markets reprice the path between meetings, in Part 3.

2.1 Rates and expectations

The Fed held in October, and the market moved its next hike to December. The range is 3.75–4.00% after the 27–28 October meeting, where the committee held on a 10–2 vote, the two dissenters wanting a quarter-point rise (Table 3). September’s hike has passed into the effective rate, 3.88%.

Table 3. Rates — policy and the Fed’s balance sheet

Source: FRED — target range (DFEDTARU, DFEDTARL; the change is the move in its upper bound), effective rate (EFFR, latest 29 October), ECB deposit rate (ECBDFR), Fed total assets (WALCL, the week to 28 October). The committee’s median projections are the Summary of Economic Projections of 16 September.

What to watch in Table 3

• Both central banks held. The Fed’s range and the ECB’s deposit rate were unchanged over the four weeks; this year the ECB is up 50 bp and the effective fed funds rate 24 bp.
• The year’s cuts are undone. The effective rate, 3.88%, is 1 bp above a year ago: September’s hike took back what a year of cuts had given.
• The balance sheet is not shrinking. Fed assets are $6.746 tn, $0.159 tn more than a year ago: the Fed is tightening with the rate, not the balance sheet.

What moved it. Inflation caught up with the rate. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September and the PCE measure the Fed targets 3.6%, so the effective rate stands only 0.2 points above headline inflation, against 1.2 a year earlier; on the core measures, 2.6% for CPI and 3.1% for PCE, policy is tighter (Figure 2). September’s hot report lifted the odds of an October hike only briefly (Table 2): the technology sell-off of 22 October turned the market to growth, and the committee held.

Figure 2. Headline inflation rose to within 0.2 points of the policy rate, with core below it — US policy rate and inflation, headline and core, last thirteen months

Source: FRED (fed funds) and ALFRED (CPI from the BLS, PCE from the BEA). The effective fed funds rate (EFFR) is at each Friday close, 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026. The inflation lines are the consumer price index for all urban consumers, all items and less food and energy, not seasonally adjusted (CPIAUCNS, CPILFENS), and the PCE price index, all items and less food and energy (PCEPI, PCEPILFE), each the latest month’s change on a year earlier as it stood in the latest release by that Friday — September 2026 for all four on 30 October. The BLS published no October 2025 index after the 2025 federal government shutdown, so the two CPI lines hold September’s rate until the November index of 18 December. The rates are computed from the published indices, so the last digit can differ from the headline rate. The 10-year yield, drawn here until this edition, is in Figure 3.

What’s priced. Futures put 72% on a quarter-point hike at the 8–9 December meeting and nothing on a cut (Table 4); the odds of at least one hike by December fell 12 points in the final week, from 84%. The committee’s own September projections already hold that step: a median of 4.1% for the end of 2026, the range one more hike would set, 4.1% again for 2027 and 3.9% for 2028. The market prices the dots’ December hike, not a cycle beyond it.

Table 4. The market-implied path — CME FedWatch probabilities

Source: CME FedWatch as quoted by Trading Economics on 30 October — about 72% for a quarter-point hike at the 8–9 December meeting, the next after 28 October; no source prices a cut, so the hold is the remainder — and by Yardeni Research for the 23 October close. A week earlier the next meeting was 27–28 October, so the three 9 December rows have no like-for-like value then and print n/d; the by-December row compares the same horizon. n/d = not available from a free dated source for that date.

Next test. October’s payrolls on 6 November and consumer prices on 10 November, the last big releases before the December meeting (Table 2).

2.2 Bonds

Yields fell from their highs as growth fears overtook inflation, the 10-year by 34 basis points to 4.94%. The 10-year closed the month level with its 17 September close, down from 5.28% on 2 October, its highest Friday close in thirteen months, and the whole curve fell with it (Figure 3): the 2-year 27 basis points to 4.56% and the 30-year 32 to 5.31%, while the three-month bill, tied to the Fed’s range, held near 4.16%.

Nearly all of the move was real: the 10-year real yield fell 32 basis points to 2.60%, so the gap between the two — the inflation the bond market prices — narrowed only 2 (Table 5). That real yield is the rate gold and copper trade against, and the reason §8 reads falling real rates.

Figure 3. The 10-year fell 34 basis points in October, 32 of them real — US Treasury yields and the 10-year real yield, last thirteen months

Source: the US Treasury’s par and real yield curves, which FRED republishes as DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS10, DGS30 and DFII10 — each at the Friday close, 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026, the last from the Treasury’s own curves for 30 October. The real yield is the Treasury’s 10-year constant-maturity TIPS yield; the 10-year less it is the inflation the bond market prices (Table 7). Same scale as Figure 4, so the two curves read side by side.

Table 5. Bonds — the Treasury curve, real yields and credit spreads

Source: the US Treasury’s par and real yield curves for 30 October, which FRED republishes as DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30, DFII5 and DFII10, the earlier values from FRED; the ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads (BAMLC0A0CM, BAMLH0A0HYM2) from FRED, latest 29 October. Each read at Friday.

What to watch in Table 5

• The curve flattened. The 2-year–10-year slope narrowed to 38 bp from 45 four weeks earlier, and the 3-month–10-year to 78 bp from 109: investors bought duration on growth fears rather than pricing cuts.
• Real yields fell most at five years. The 5-year real yield fell 44 bp to 2.25%: the market took out more of the tightening it expected over the next five years than beyond them.
• Credit held. The high-yield spread widened only 2 bp, to 326 on 29 October, and investment grade 3 bp, to 89, through an equity sell-off.
• The year’s turn still stands. The 2-year is 96 bp above a year ago and the 10-year 83 bp: October took back a month, not the year.

Europe. France’s spread over Germany was the stress point. The French 10-year ended at 4.93% and Germany’s at 3.40%, a gap of 153 basis points after reaching 166 on 23 October, the widest in thirteen months; Italy paid 111 over Germany, and France has out-yielded Italy every Friday since 4 September (Figure 4). The ECB’s deposit rate stayed at 2.50% with euro-area inflation at 3.8% in September.

Figure 4. France’s spread over Germany reached its widest in thirteen months — the ECB deposit rate, German, French and Italian 10-year yields and euro-area inflation, last thirteen months

Source: FRED (ECB deposit rate), the Bundesbank (Germany), the Banque de France (France), CNBC (Italy) and ALFRED (euro-area inflation). The ECB deposit facility rate is ECBDFR. The German 10-year is the Bundesbank’s Svensson curve for listed Federal securities at a residual maturity of 10.0 years; the French 10-year the Banque de France’s TEC 10, the constant-maturity yield interpolated from benchmark OATs; the Italian 10-year CNBC’s benchmark BTP quote, a secondary source because no central bank publishes Italy’s 10-year daily, checked against the ECB’s monthly long-term interest rate for Italy (compiled by the Banca d’Italia), which its monthly average matched within 2 basis points in July, August and September 2026; each at the Friday close, 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026. Inflation is the euro-area HICP, all items (Eurostat, the changing composition), as Figure 2’s inflation lines — September 2026 on 30 October. The three yields come from different methods — a fitted curve for Germany, an interpolation of traded bonds for France, a benchmark-bond quote for Italy — so the gaps between them are close to, not the same as, the quoted OAT–Bund and BTP–Bund spreads.

Next test. October’s US consumer prices on 10 November, which decide whether the fall in real yields holds (Table 2).

2.3 The dollar

The dollar ended the month flat — stronger only against the euro, weaker against the other six majors. ICE’s dollar index closed at 101.88 on 30 October, unchanged on the four weeks and 2.1% higher on the year, above all four of its moving averages but below its 12 October high of 102.58 (Figure 5).

Rates did not drive it. The US 10-year’s premium over Germany’s narrowed 25 basis points to 154, a move that usually weakens the dollar against the euro; the dollar gained against the euro instead, as France’s spread over Germany reached its widest (Table 6). With the currency flat, one force was out of Table 1: each market moved on its own story.

Figure 5. The dollar index ended October where it began, above all four of its averages — the dollar index and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Yahoo Finance — ICE’s US dollar index (DXY), its daily close, 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026: the dollar against a basket of six currencies, the euro weighted 57.6%. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions, computed from five years of the same series. The axis starts at 96.

Table 6. The dollar against the majors — month, year and year to date, to 30 October 2026

Source: the ECB’s euro reference rates, set at 14:15 CET each business day, for the seven currencies — the euro’s own rate against the dollar, and the other six as cross rates through the euro (the yen per dollar is the yen per euro over the dollar per euro) — on 30 October, 2 October, 31 October 2025 and 31 December 2025, the last session of the year; ICE’s dollar index, its daily close via Yahoo Finance, on the same dates (Figure 5); and the Fed’s broad dollar index from FRED (DTWEXBGS), which the Fed publishes a week behind: 23 October, against 25 September, 24 October 2025 and 31 December 2025. Each change is the dollar’s against that basket or currency from its rate four weeks and a year earlier and at the end of 2025 (YTD), so a positive change means the dollar gained; positive changes are accented. The euro, pound and Australian dollar are quoted in dollars per unit, the yen, franc, Canadian dollar and yuan in units per dollar. A reference rate is a European-afternoon rate, not a New York close, so a cross can differ from a dealer’s close by a few hundredths.

What to watch in Table 6

• Only the euro gave way. The dollar gained 0.5% against the euro and lost against the other six, most against the Canadian dollar, 1.9%, and the pound, 1.5%.
• The broad index’s gain came before the month. The Fed’s broad basket, published a week behind, was 0.8% higher in the four weeks to 23 October, but all of it came in the week to 2 October: from the 2 October close it was flat, as ICE’s index was.
• The year runs the other way in Asia-Pacific. The dollar is 6.9% weaker than a year ago against the Australian dollar and 6.5% against the yuan, but 3.4% stronger against the euro — 5.2% since the start of the year, most of the index’s 3.7%.

Next test. The December hike odds, which the payrolls of 6 November and the consumer prices of 10 November will set (Table 2).

2.4 Jobs and inflation

Hiring has stalled while prices accelerate — both halves of the Fed’s bind in one month. September added 29,000 jobs on the first estimate, and the year behind it is weaker than first reported: eight of the twelve months before September now stand below their first estimates, May at 63,000 against 172,000 (Figure 6). Pay lags prices — average hourly earnings rose 3.0% on the year, as in August — and output has not slowed with hiring: the economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter (Table 2).

Figure 6. Eight of the twelve months before September now stand below their first estimates — US nonfarm payrolls, first estimate and latest, last thirteen months

Source: ALFRED, the St. Louis Fed’s archive of every release, for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payrolls. Series PAYEMS (Current Employment Statistics, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted) — each month’s change as the release that first printed it reported it, beside its change in the 2 October release, the latest by the Friday. Revision, latest minus first estimate, in thousands: Sep ’25 −43, Oct ’25 −35, Nov ’25 −23, Dec ’25 −67, Jan ’26 +30, Feb ’26 −64, Mar ’26 +36, Apr ’26 +33, May ’26 −109, Jun ’26 −26, Jul ’26 +13, Aug ’26 −29 — a net 284,000 over twelve months, eight revised down and four up; September has had no revision yet. The months to December 2025 also carry the annual benchmark revision, published with January’s data on 11 February 2026. October and November 2025 were first published together on 16 December 2025, after the government shutdown.

Claims. Layoffs are not the problem: initial claims were 194,000 in the week to 24 October, the four-week average 196,750, and have stayed between 194,000 and 212,000 for three months (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Claims stayed between 194,000 and 212,000 for three months — initial jobless claims, last three months

Source: FRED, series ICSA (US Department of Labor), seasonally adjusted, each data week as published by the Friday; the four-week average (IC4WSA) was 196,750 in the week to 24 October.

Unemployment. The rate rose to 4.2% in September from 4.1%, its first rise since February, though still below the 4.5% of November 2025 (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, its first rise since February — US unemployment rate, last thirteen months

Source: ALFRED, series UNRATE (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, seasonally adjusted), as it stood in the 2 October release. October 2025 prints n/d: the household survey was not conducted that month during the federal government shutdown, so the BLS published no rate.

Inflation. The core measures rose too: core CPI to 2.6% in the year to September from 2.4% in August, core PCE to 3.1% from 3.0% (Figure 2); the euro area’s headline rate was 3.8% (Figure 4). Expectations rose with them (Table 7): Michigan’s consumers expect 4.7% a year ahead and the Cleveland Fed’s model 2.98%, up 0.33 points, while the market’s five-year breakeven rose 9 basis points to 2.46%. The FOMC still projects 2.3% for 2027.

Table 7. Inflation expectations — the market, the Cleveland Fed model, consumers and the FOMC

Source: FRED, the Cleveland Fed, the New York Fed, the University of Michigan, the FOMC and the ECB, one per column. The bases differ — the market and the Cleveland model price CPI, the FOMC projects PCE, the surveys ask about prices in general — so each column reads down, not across. The market: TIPS breakevens (T5YIE, T10YIE, and T5YIFR, the five-year rate five years forward, in the long-run row), the 30 October close and its change over four weeks. The Cleveland Fed’s model of expected CPI inflation combines Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps and surveys, each month as first published by the Friday (ALFRED vintages — October’s, out on 14 October). The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations: September medians, released 7 October. Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers: the final October reading of 23 October against the preliminary of 9 October, its long-run question five to ten years ahead. The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections of 16 September against June’s: median PCE inflation by calendar year, fourth quarter on fourth quarter — 2027 in the one-year row, 2028 in the three-year row, the longer run in the last (for 2026 itself, 3.7%, from 3.6%). The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey: euro-area medians for September, released 23 October.

Next test. October’s payrolls on 6 November and consumer prices on 10 November (Table 2).

3. Gold

Gold fell 4.9% in a month when the real yield fell 32 basis points — the opposite of its usual pairing. The LBMA price closed at $3,981.10 on 30 October against $4,186.60 four weeks earlier, its lowest since 1 July.

For what drives the metal over years rather than months — central-bank demand, ETF cycles, the real-rate link — see the gold market guide.

3.1 The month in numbers

The price. It was flat for the first two weeks of October, and the whole fall came in the last two. It ended below all four of its moving averages, 11.5% under its 200-day (Figure 9), down 9.3% this year and 27.6% below its high of $5,502 on 29 January (Table 8).

Figure 9. Gold ended 11.5% under its 200-day average, below all four — gold and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Westmetall — the LBMA gold price at each London session, 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions’ prices, computed from the same table back to 2024. Westmetall’s entries for 2 January 2026 ($1,386.85, between $4,389 and $4,437) and 17 May 2024 ($2,832) are left out as bad prints. The axis starts at $3,000.

Table 8. Gold — price, flows and the official sector

Source: Westmetall (gold), Yahoo Finance (silver, COMEX December, the front month on 2 and 30 October; the year-end base the front month’s 31 December settlement via SI=F), SPDR (GLD, latest 29 October), iShares (SLV), the World Gold Council (ETFs, central banks), Kitco (PBoC), the CFTC (COMEX gold, contract 088691, managed money, 27 October), Nasdaq and VanEck (miners’ ETFs). Gold is the LBMA Gold Price AM, so the gold/silver ratio divides a 10:30 London fix by a New York settlement; GLD tonnes from the SPDR Gold Shares historical archive; global ETF holdings from the WGC’s report of 7 October (September), central-bank net purchases from its statistics for August (6 October), the latest: the WGC reports a month’s central-bank figures about five weeks after it ends. Its quarterly Gold Demand Trends, out for the third quarter on 30 October last year, had not been published by 31 October — its latest issue is the second quarter’s, of 30 July — and the WGC has given no date, so the quarter’s central-bank and demand totals are not in this edition; PBoC reserves for September via Kitco. SLV tonnes from the trust’s daily shares outstanding in iShares’ fund-data file × its silver per share. Equities: daily closes from Nasdaq (GDX, GDXJ); shares outstanding derived from VanEck’s daily price history, each day’s total net assets over its NAV, as VanEck prints no count.

What to watch in Table 8

• The funds sold the fall. GLD lost 15.47 t over the month to 1,041.08 t and is 29.48 t lighter this year; the record global count, September’s 4,256 t, predates the selling.
• Futures traders cut too. Managed money’s net long in COMEX gold fell 14.76k contracts to 105.56k in the week to 27 October, and its gross shorts rose 5.55k to 16.95k.
• Central banks still buy. They bought a net 39 t in August, 20 t more than a year earlier — the floor under a price the funds are no longer holding.
• Silver took the larger hit. COMEX silver lost 18.4% against gold’s 4.9%, and the gold/silver ratio rose 11.5 to 80.8.
• The miners fell more than twice as far as the metal. GDX lost 12.2% and GDXJ 16.4% on the month, yet GDX’s share count rose 3.1% — investors added on the way down. They are ranked on the gold mining stock screener.

Central banks. The official sector kept buying through the price’s slide: August, the latest month the WGC has reported, was the fifth month of net buying since March’s net sale of 30 t (Figure 10). Its quarterly Gold Demand Trends, out by 30 October a year ago, had not appeared by this edition’s close.

Figure 10. Central banks bought for a fifth month since March’s sale — central banks’ net gold purchases, last thirteen months

Source: the World Gold Council’s central-bank gold statistics (from the IMF’s IFS and central banks’ own releases), each month as first reported. The WGC revises earlier months as late reports arrive: its revised 2026 total to August is 170 t, against 173 t from the first reports here. Each month’s report — the WGC’s own note, or Kitco’s report of it: Aug 2025, Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan 2026, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug.

Who bought. China led August with 20 t, ahead of Poland and Uzbekistan at 8 t each and Kazakhstan at 7 t, while Russia sold 6 t (Figure 11).

Figure 11. China led August’s buying with 20 tonnes — central-bank net gold purchases by country, August 2026, the five largest

Source: World Gold Council, central-bank gold statistics for August 2026, published 6 October. The figure draws the five largest moves; the WGC also names Turkey (+3 t), the Czech Republic (+2 t), Bolivia and Ghana (around +1 t each) and Jordan (−3 t). All ten named banks add up to 41 t against the 39 t net total in Table 8; the WGC does not name the banks behind the remaining −2 t.

The largest fund. GLD’s flows turned with the sell-off: after adding 5.9 t in the week to 16 October, it lost 17.4 t in the week to 23 October, when margin calls hit, and 0.6 t more in the last week (Figure 12). The month ahead tests whether October’s consumer prices revive the December hike odds the funds sold on.

Figure 12. The fund lost 17.4 tonnes in the week of the margin calls — weekly change in GLD holdings, last three months

Source: SPDR Gold Shares historical archive, tonnes of gold held at each Friday — the last week’s at 29 October, the latest published.

3.2 Events and the month ahead

The month turned on 22 October. The technology sell-off forced investors to sell gold and silver to meet margin calls, and the next day an oil spike revived bets on a Fed hike, so in one week the metal was sold first for cash and then for the rate outlook (Table 9).

Table 9. Gold reports — the month to 30 October, then the month ahead

Source: each row links to its report — the margin-call selling and the oil-driven hike bets via Mining.com, the Fed’s hold via SP Angel’s note of 29 October, the LBMA AM prices in the Reads Westmetall’s (as in Table 8); SAFE publishes China’s reserves on the 7th of each month. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. China’s October reserves on 7 November, and October’s US consumer prices on 10 November, which set the hike odds and the real yield gold is priced against (Table 9).

4. Oil

Brent rose 15.1% as attacks on Saudi energy sites deepened the Hormuz shortage. ICE Brent’s December contract expired at $117.64 on 30 October against $102.25 four weeks earlier, the highest front-month close since 29 April.

The oil market guide explains why the curve and the physical premium tell more than the flat price.

4.1 The month in numbers

The price. It is above all four of its moving averages, 27.2% over the 200-day (Figure 13), 93.3% higher this year and close to the window’s high of $118.35 on 31 March. The shortage shows in the curve as well: December expired $4.21 above January, which settled at $113.43 (Table 11).

Figure 13. Brent closed 27.2% above its 200-day average, near the window’s high — ICE Brent and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Yahoo Finance — ICE Brent futures, the continuous front month’s daily settlement, 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026; Yahoo’s series rolled to January on 23 October, so the last days are December’s settlements (BZZ26), the front month until it expired on 30 October. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions, computed from five years of the same series. A continuous front month steps to the next contract each month, so a roll can move the line by the gap between two contracts. The axis starts at $40.

Table 10. Oil — prices and spreads, the US weekly, supply signals and positioning

Source: Yahoo Finance (ICE Brent December, the front month on 2 and 30 October; the year and year-end bases the front month’s settlements of 31 October and 31 December 2025 via BZ=F), CME’s settlements and Yahoo’s contract series for WTI’s December 2026 and November 2027 contracts (M1 − M12), the EIA (spot prices, latest 27 October; weekly report, week ending 23 October; STEO, October edition), Baker Hughes (23 October), IMF PortWatch (Hormuz transits, the week to 23 October), the CFTC (WTI, 27 October), ICE Futures Europe’s Commitments of Traders (ICE Brent, managed money, 27 October, in thousands of lots), Nasdaq and State Street (XOP and its shares outstanding). Dated Brent, WTI spot and NY Harbor ULSD and gasoline are EIA spot prices; the diesel crack is ULSD less Dated Brent, the 3-2-1 crack two barrels of gasoline and one of ULSD against three of WTI (Figure 15). Products supplied and net crude imports are four-week averages of the weekly figures; Permian production is the STEO’s regional series (COPRPM; September is an EIA estimate). n/d = no free dated source for that date — the rig count four weeks and a year earlier.

What to watch in Table 10

• The future caught up with the barrel. ICE Brent rose 15.1% on the month against Dated Brent’s 8.0%, while the Dated Brent–WTI spread widened $1.93 to $19.73: the shortage is now on the screen as well as in the cargoes.
• Funds bought Brent and sold WTI. Managed money added 24.61k lots of ICE Brent, to a net long of 220.07k, and cut its WTI net long by 48.5k contracts to 31.1k as WTI’s one-year backwardation widened $7.04 to $21.11 — the bet is on the seaborne barrel, not the US one.
• Stocks drew as runs held. Total commercial stocks ex-SPR fell 31.76 MMbbl over the month and commercial crude 16.69 MMbbl, with refinery utilisation at 92.8% and products supplied steady at 20.80 MMbbl/d.
• Diesel margins came off their extreme. The New York diesel crack fell $22.244 on the month to $73.754, still $36.228 above a year ago, with distillate stocks 9.4 MMbbl below a year earlier.
• The producers kept up with the barrel. XOP rose 10.2% on the month to Brent’s 15.1%, and its share count rose 10.4% — investors are still adding. The names behind it are ranked on the oil stock screener.

US stocks. The SPR ended the window at its low, 282.6 MMbbl, 126.5 MMbbl below a year ago, and total commercial stocks ex-SPR, at 1,212.6 MMbbl, are near their own low of 1,197.6 (Figure 14). Both have covered part of the gap the Strait of Hormuz leaves, where traffic has not recovered since March.

Figure 14. The SPR ended at its thirteen-month low, 282.6 MMbbl — US oil stocks: the SPR, commercial crude and total commercial stocks ex-SPR, last thirteen months

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report — the SPR, commercial crude, and total commercial stocks ex-SPR. Series WCSSTUS1 (SPR crude oil stocks), WCESTUS1 (commercial crude stocks) and WTESTUS1 (total commercial stocks excluding the SPR, crude and products), at each data week from the week to 26 September 2025 to the week to 23 October 2026. The axis starts at 200 MMbbl. The SPR lost almost a third of its oil over the window, nearly all of it after March; its high, 415.44 MMbbl, held from the week to 13 February to the week to 20 March.

Refining. Refiners’ margins came off their peak: the New York 3-2-1 crack fell $25.86 on the month to $41.18 on 27 October, from a high of $81.86 in the window, though still above the $22.70 of October 2025 (Figure 15).

Figure 15. Refining margins fell by half from their peak — the New York 3-2-1 crack spread, last thirteen months

Source: EIA spot prices — New York Harbor gasoline and ultra-low-sulphur diesel, and WTI at Cushing. Series EER_EPMRU_PF4_Y35NY_DPG (conventional gasoline), EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_Y35NY_DPG (diesel) and RWTC (WTI). The crack is (2 × gasoline + 1 × diesel) × 42 ÷ 3 − WTI, in dollars per barrel of crude, at each Friday from 3 October 2025; the last point is 27 October, the latest day EIA had published for all three. Spot prices stand in for the NYMEX gasoline, heating-oil and WTI futures of the exchange’s own 3-2-1, which have no free dated series.

Crude, week by week. Commercial crude drew in each of the four weeks to 23 October, the largest draw 8.6 MMbbl in the week to 9 October and the latest 1.9 MMbbl, against a poll for a small build (Figure 16). The month ahead tests whether the draws continue as Europe’s 42 MMbbl release arrives, in the EIA reports from 4 November (Table 11).

Figure 16. Commercial crude drew in each of the month’s four reports — weekly change in US commercial crude stocks, last three months

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, series WCESTUS1, change from the previous week.

4.2 Events and the month ahead

The month’s rally came from the Gulf, in three steps: attacks on shipping and a strike on Russia’s Ryazan refinery in mid-October; Aramco’s evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters on 22 October, the first full evacuation since the conflict resumed in July; and Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites on 23 October, which took Brent to its highest close since 29 April (Table 11). Each raised the risk to supply that Hormuz had already cut. Diplomacy and stock releases checked the rise only briefly: US contact with Iran and Europe’s release of 42 MMbbl over three months eased it on 29 October, and reports of Iranian strike options and tanker incidents in Hormuz lifted it again as the December contract expired.

Table 11. Oil reports — the month to 30 October, then the month ahead

Source: each row links to its report — the Gulf attacks, Aramco’s evacuation and the Houthi strikes via PriceOfOil, Baird Maritime, Rigzone and FinanceFeeds, the EIA’s weekly via BOE Report, the Iran contacts and the December expiry via Trading Economics, the settlements in the Reads the front contracts’ own (Yahoo Finance for ICE Brent December, CLZ26 for WTI, as in Table 10); dates ahead from OPEC’s release of 4 October and the EIA’s release schedules. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. OPEC+’s seven core members meet on 1 November to set December output after two monthly pauses at 31.01 MMbbl/d, and the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook of 10 November revises October’s $105 for Brent in the fourth quarter (Table 11).

5. Natural gas

US gas fell 13.3% on a mild forecast while Europe’s rose 39.0% on missing Gulf LNG. Henry Hub’s December contract, the front month since November expired on 28 October, settled at $2.898 against its own $3.341 four weeks earlier; November, then in front, had settled at $3.035 that day, so the roll hid part of the fall.

How the injection season and LNG exports set the price is in the natural gas market guide.

5.1 The month in numbers

The price. It ended below all four of its moving averages (Figure 17), 29.7% lower than a year ago and 21.4% down this year, after the November contract’s fall to $2.602 on 26 October. The winter strip, December to March, fell 10.7% to $2.926: the market is pricing a mild season, not only a mild week. Europe and Asia went the other way: TTF closed at €103.94/MWh, $34.03 in Henry Hub’s unit and above the JKM’s $32.84, itself up 27.8% (Table 12).

Figure 17. Henry Hub ended below all four of its averages — Henry Hub futures and their 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Yahoo Finance — NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures, the continuous front month’s daily settlement, 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026, each day on the contract then in front — November until it expired on 28 October, December (NGZ26) since. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions, computed from five years of the same series. The futures, not the spot price in Table 12: spot spiked to $30.72 in January’s cold, which would flatten the chart and lift every average for months. The axis starts at $2.

Table 12. Natural gas — price, storage, supply and Europe

Source: Yahoo Finance (Henry Hub December, the front month since November expired on 28 October, its month change struck on its own 2 October settlement so the roll from November does not enter it, the year and year-end bases the front month’s settlements of 31 October and 31 December 2025 via NG=F; the winter strip the mean of the December, January, February and March settlements, NGZ26 to NGH27; and the TTF and JKM front months), the EIA (spot, latest 27 October; storage report, week ending 23 October, against EIA’s published five-year average), the consensus via Trading Economics; LSEG’s October-to-date production (28 October) and LNG feedgas (29 October) via Trading Economics, so the look-backs compare months, not weeks, four weeks earlier being September to date as of 23 September; EU storage from GIE’s AGSI+ as Trading Economics reported it for 29 October, its month change from 25 September — the gap to the five-year average is the last gas day read from AGSI+ itself, 9 October; positioning, net and gross short, the CFTC’s (contract 023651, 27 October); Nasdaq and First Trust (FCG and its shares outstanding). The consensus is a forecast for one week and has no look-back. Beneath TTF’s close, its dollar equivalent in the unit Henry Hub and the JKM are quoted in: € per MWh × the ECB’s dollar reference rate of the day (1.1172 on 30 October) ÷ 3.412142 MMBtu per MWh.

What to watch in Table 12

• The surplus is thinning. Storage stood 38 Bcf, 1.0%, above EIA’s five-year average in the week to 23 October, down from 79 Bcf four weeks earlier, and 148 Bcf below a year ago.
• Exports take more as output slips. LNG feedgas rose 0.5 Bcf/d on the month to 18.5 Bcf/d while dry gas production fell 0.8 Bcf/d to 112.1.
• Speculators doubled down on the short. Managed money added 73.52k contracts to a net short of 206.32k, with gross shorts 154.1k above a year ago — positions a cold start to winter would force them to buy back.
• Europe is still behind. EU storage is 74.9% full, up 4.3 points on the month; on 9 October it was 14.95 points below its five-year average for the date.
• The producers went their own way. FCG rose 12.0% on the month while Henry Hub fell 13.3%, and its share count rose 2.1%. They are ranked on the natural gas stock screener.

Storage. The injection season is ending with a thin cushion: stocks have refilled to 3,724 Bcf from 1,818 Bcf in March, against EIA’s five-year average of 3,686 Bcf for the week (Figure 18). The latest build, 80 Bcf in the week to 23 October, beat the 75 Bcf expected — the mild weather that lowered the price also lowered demand.

Figure 18. Storage stood 38 Bcf above EIA’s five-year average as the injection season closed — US gas in storage and its five-year average, last thirteen months

Source: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, Lower-48 working gas, against EIA’s own five-year average. Series NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF at each data week from the week to 26 September 2025 to the week to 23 October 2026; the five-year average is the figure EIA publishes with each week’s report (3,686 Bcf for 23 October), the same as Table 12’s. The axis starts at 1,500 Bcf. Stocks bottomed at 1,818 Bcf in the week to 20 March and have refilled to 3,724 Bcf since.

Supply and LNG. Europe keeps the export pull firm: with Gulf cargoes short and its storage the lowest for the date since records began in 2009, every US cargo has a buyer, and feedgas rose while production slipped (Table 12). The month ahead tests whether the surplus survives the season’s last builds, in the storage reports from 5 November (Table 13).

5.2 Events and the month ahead

Weather set the US price: forecasts warmer than normal into early November took the November contract below $3 on 20 October and to a six-month low on 26 October, and the storage report of 29 October, a larger build than expected, pushed the new December contract lower still (Table 13). Europe moved the other way on supply: with Gulf LNG deliveries short, TTF rose above €100 for the first time since late 2022.

Table 13. Natural gas reports — the month to 30 October, then the month ahead

Source: each row links to its report — the price moves and Europe’s storage via Trading Economics and Energy News Beat, the storage week and its consensus via Trading Economics; dates ahead from EIA’s storage schedule and CME’s contract calendar. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. The storage reports of 5, 13, 19 and 25 November, the injection season’s last — Veterans Day and Thanksgiving move two of them — and the December contract’s expiry on 25 November (Table 13).

6. Copper

Copper ended flat, up 0.7%, as rising stocks in London offset dearer prompt metal. LME cash closed at $14,449/t against $14,355 four weeks earlier.

The copper market guide covers the three exchanges, treatment charges and the China cycle in full.

6.1 The month in numbers

The price. It sits 0.3% under its 50-day average but above the other three (Figure 19), 15.6% higher this year and below the window’s high of $14,850 on 17 August (Table 14).

Figure 19. Copper held above three of its four averages — LME copper and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Westmetall — the LME copper cash settlement at each London session, 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions, computed from the same table back to 2024. The axis starts at $9,000.

Table 14. Copper — prices and spreads, exchange stocks, China and positioning

Source: Westmetall (LME cash, three-month and stocks), Yahoo Finance (COMEX December, the front month on 2 and 30 October, $/lb × 2,204.62; the year-end base the front month’s 31 December settlement via HG=F), SP Angel (Shanghai’s weekly stocks, 23 October — the 30 October report was not out by the close; earlier weeks from Cochilco’s La Rueda), MetalCharts (CME’s COMEX stocks, 801,538 short tons on 29 October, × 0.9072, its month change from 25 September), the ICSG (world refined use and its July balance), Mysteel and SMM (China customs’ imports of unwrought copper and of concentrate, September), the NBS (PMI), the CFTC (contract 085692, 27 October), Nasdaq and Global X (COPX and its shares outstanding). The total visible and the days of use stand at 23 October, the last Friday all three exchanges had reported; SHFE’s December 2025 reports and COMEX’s stocks a year ago were not reachable, so those cells print n/d.

What to watch in Table 14

• Prompt metal got dearer. London’s cash premium over three-month metal widened $164.0 to $199.0/t on the month while the price rose 0.7%.
• The US premium flipped. COMEX trades $158.6/t below London, from $83.1 above, yet COMEX stocks rose 27,810 t to 727,143 t — the metal shipped for the tariff is still there.
• Visible stocks rose. LME stocks climbed 25,350 t to 274,000 t, and the three exchanges together reached 13.3 days of world use, from 12.6.
• Funds sold. Managed money cut COMEX net length by 37.5k contracts to 40.6k and added 7.6k contracts of gross shorts.
• The miners fell hard. COPX lost 16.2% on the month against copper’s 0.7%, though its share count rose 1.9%. They are ranked on the copper mining stock screener.

China’s imports. China’s buying recovered in September: imports of unwrought copper rose to 461 kt from August’s 382 kt, though below the 485 kt of a year earlier (Figure 20).

Figure 20. China’s imports recovered to 461 kt in September — China’s imports of unwrought copper, last thirteen months

Source: China’s General Administration of Customs, imports of unwrought copper and copper products, month by month as reported by Reuters, SMM and Mysteel (September, 14 October). January 2026 prints n/d: customs published January and February together, 700 kt; February alone, 316 kt, is SMM’s figure.

China’s factories. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8, the fourth reading at or above 50 in six months (Figure 21) — demand that is growing, but barely.

Figure 21. The PMI rose to 50.1 in September, barely above the line — China’s official manufacturing PMI, last thirteen months

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, manufacturing PMI, Table 1 of the September 2026 release. Bars run up or down from 50, the line between expansion and contraction.

Exchange stocks. The three exchanges held 1,052,508 t in the week to 23 October, 54,528 t more than four weeks earlier (Figure 22): London’s deliveries into New Orleans outweighed Shanghai’s draw. The month ahead tests whether China’s demand draws those stocks down, starting with its October PMI (Table 15).

Figure 22. Visible stocks rose to 13.3 days of world use — exchange copper stocks in days of world use, last three months

Source: the ICSG’s world refined copper use, and the LME, SHFE and COMEX stocks of Table 14. The stocks are at each Friday — SHFE’s report of the holiday weeks is Thursday 24 September and Wednesday 30 September — over world refined copper use of 78.9 kt a day: the ICSG’s 16,730 kt for January–July 2026 over 212 days (September bulletin, 24 September). One divisor for all thirteen weeks, so the bars move with the stocks alone. The last bar is 23 October, the last Friday all three exchanges had reported by the close.

6.2 Events and the month ahead

Stocks set the month. Deliveries into New Orleans lifted LME stocks for four days to 22 October, to their highest since late July, and pushed three-month copper to a five-week low as New York slipped below London; the next day Shanghai’s weekly stocks fell by a quarter and London recovered (Table 15).

Table 15. Copper reports — the month to 30 October, then the month ahead

Source: LME and Shanghai stocks via Mining.com.au and Mining.com; the PMI’s date from the National Bureau of Statistics, which publishes it on the month’s last day. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. China’s October PMI on 31 October, whether it holds above 50 (Table 15).

7. Uranium

Uranium futures rose 3.0% while the miners fell 15.2%, sold with the AI trade — the futures and the shares parted. The CME UxC future closed at $92.20/lb on 29 October, the latest published, against $89.50 on 25 September, the latest close held four weeks before it.

Why utilities contract years ahead and what sets the term price is in the uranium market guide.

7.1 The month in numbers

The price. The future is above all four of its moving averages, the 10-week at $90.10 (Figure 23), 12.9% higher this year and in the upper half of its thirteen-month range, $75.85 to $99.25. Spot did not follow: TradeTech’s indicator ended the month where it began (Table 16).

Figure 23. The futures closed above all four averages, in the upper half of their thirteen-month range — U₃O₈ futures and their 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-week moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: CME UxC U₃O₈ futures, the front month’s Friday close — from Investing.com to 9 October and as SP Angel quotes it since, the Thursday’s where the Friday was a US holiday and for the last week, the 30 October close not yet published — 3 October 2025 to 30 October 2026. Each average is the mean of the last 10, 20, 30 or 40 Friday closes, the weekly match for 50 to 200 sessions: the contract has no free daily history to compute from, so its Friday closes back to December 2024 were read for the 40-week average. The futures’ range over the window: $75.85 on 21 November 2025 to $99.25 on 30 January 2026. The axis starts at $70.

Table 16. Uranium — price, financial holders and the spot market

Source: CME UxC U₃O₈ futures as SP Angel quotes them (the 29 October close; the 30 October close not yet published), earlier values from Investing.com; TradeTech’s indicators and transactions as FNArena reported them on 27 October for the week to 23 October, and on 6 October for the September month-end; Cameco (month-end averages of UxC and TradeTech, September); Sprott (the trust on 30 October: 81,697,348 lb, its US-dollar NAV against the previous close); Nasdaq, Global X and Sprott ETFs (URA, URNM and their shares outstanding). The futures’ month change runs from the 25 September close, the latest held four weeks before 29 October; the long-term indicator is set at each month-end. UxC’s weekly indicator and spot volumes are subscription data and are not shown.

What to watch in Table 16

• Term holds above spot. TradeTech’s long-term indicator stayed at $97 and spot at $89.75, a premium of 8.1%, 1.9 points wider this year: utilities pay up for term, not spot.
• Spot is thin. One spot deal in the week to 23 October, 100,000 lb, FNArena reported: the price rests on very little physical trade.
• The trust is sidelined. The Sprott trust’s units traded 12.77% below their asset value, and it holds 81.70 Mlb — no new buying while the discount lasts.
• The miners went the other way. URA lost 15.2% and URNM 10.7% on the month while the futures rose 3.0%; URA is 38.8% lower on the year against the futures’ 19.9% gain. They are ranked on the uranium mining stock screener.

Term over spot. The premium is where the market has moved: Cameco’s month-end long-term price stood 7.7% over spot in September, against 0.4% a year earlier, and has stood above spot every month since February (Figure 24).

Figure 24. Term stood 7.7% over spot in September, every month since February above it — uranium long-term price over spot, month-end, last thirteen months

Source: Cameco — the month-end spot and long-term prices, each the average of UxC’s and TradeTech’s: (long-term − spot) ÷ spot. Below zero, spot stood above the term price (January 2026, when month-end spot reached $94.28).

The Sprott trust. The spot market’s largest financial buyer bought nothing in August or September (Figure 25) and its holdings were unchanged on 30 October: it buys only with cash from new units, issued above asset value, and at a discount it cannot. The month ahead tests whether utilities’ requests for proposals, due before year-end, lift spot out of its $89–90 range (Table 17).

Figure 25. The trust has bought nothing since 30 July — Sprott Physical Uranium Trust purchases, last thirteen months

Source: Sprott — the trust’s daily pounds acquired, from the purchase chart on its page (read 21 October 2026), summed by month. Its last purchase was 100,000 lb on 30 July; its holdings, 81,697,348 lb on 30 October, are unchanged since. The trust buys only with cash from new units, which it issues when they trade above the value of its uranium.

7.2 Events and the month ahead

The month’s news came from the reactor operators and the largest producer, and it moved the shares, not the price. Google and Constellation’s agreement of 6 October, for uprates and new supply, lifted Cameco’s shares (Table 17); its third-quarter results on 30 October — output cut by a longer planned outage at the Key Lake mill and the top of its 2026 guidance lowered by a million pounds — sent them back down.

Table 17. Uranium reports — the month to 30 October, then the month ahead

Source: the Google–Constellation deal and the share moves via SP Angel’s note of 7 October; Cameco’s third-quarter release, filed with the SEC on 30 October, and its share move that day from Yahoo Finance’s CCJ history (US$83.49 to US$76.91); TradeTech’s weekly indicators each Friday. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. TradeTech’s weekly indicators on 6, 13, 20 and 27 November: whether spot leaves its range as utilities’ year-end requests for proposals close (Table 17).

8. The regime and the outlook

October reads as high inflation with falling real rates — rows in which gold has historically been strong and oil strong to positive. On the four steps of the Commodities Across the Cycle guide: growth is mixed, with third-quarter output up at a 3.4% rate (Table 2) but September’s payrolls at 29,000 (Figure 6), unemployment at 4.2% (Figure 8), claims low (Figure 7) and China’s PMI at 50.1 (Figure 21). Inflation is high and rising, consumer prices 3.7% on the year (Figure 2), and real rates fell, the 10-year real yield by 32 basis points (Table 5). The dollar index ended flat (Table 1), so no strong-dollar overlay. Two rows are outlined: high or rising inflation, and falling real rates. Not stagflation: the quarter’s growth and low claims outweigh one weak payrolls report, and that turn waits on a second.

Figure 26. October reads as high inflation with falling real rates — how the five commodities behave across macro regimes

Source: Commodities Across the Cycle: A Macro Regime Guide (2026), Figure 1 and its Table 1 — historical tendencies drawn from concluded episodes, not forecasts; shading runs from weak (faint) to strongest (solid), and for uranium and natural gas “Neutral” means largely independent of the regime. The outlined rows are this edition’s reading of the month’s growth, inflation, real-rate and dollar figures (Section 8).

The month against the map. Two markets fitted it, one barely: oil, strong in one row and positive in the other, rose on a supply shock that is itself the inflation (§4), and copper, positive in both, barely moved (§6). Gold broke the map — strong in both rows, it fell, sold for cash and on the December hike odds (§3). US gas broke it on a mild forecast while Europe’s TTF rose (§5), and uranium stood apart (§7). Gold’s break is the guide’s stress test: in a liquidity scare correlations converge, and the metal is sold with everything else.

Table 18. The month against the regime map — each market’s call and its move, the four weeks to 30 October

Source: the calls, the outlined rows of Figure 26 (Commodities Across the Cycle, Table 1); the month’s changes, Table 1. The read is this edition’s: “Fits” where the market moved the way the rows lean, “Breaks” where it moved against them, “Apart” where the map holds it largely independent of the regime.

The outlook. Table 19 maps three turns. If October’s consumer prices on 10 November hold at or above September’s 3.7%, the high-inflation row holds, one in which oil and gold have historically been strong. If payrolls on 6 November and that print make a December hike certain, the map moves to rising real rates, a row that has historically challenged gold. If payrolls weaken again while inflation stays hot, it moves to stagflation, historically gold’s strongest row and copper’s weakest. Behind all three, the guide’s structural forces — electrification’s pull on copper and uranium, central banks’ buying of gold — can outweigh the cycle for years. These are historical tendencies, not forecasts.

Table 19. What would move the regime — the next tests and the rows they point to

Source: the rows and the markets each has historically favoured and challenged, Commodities Across the Cycle, Tables 1 and 6 — historical tendencies, not forecasts; every date is a row of Table 2 or of its market’s events table, but the 9 December decision, from the Fed’s FOMC calendar. A map of what would change the reading, not a prediction and not advice.

Next test. US consumer prices for October, on 10 November, decide whether next month’s row is still high inflation (Table 2).

9. Method and sources

Each edition is built by one script from free sources: every table and figure is printed by the model, which keeps each value it fetched with its date, and every hand-entered value with its link. Prices are Friday closes, or the latest close a source had published by then, dated in its table; weekly reports are shown with their own data week. Changes run over four weeks, from the 2 October close, over fifty-two weeks and over the year to date. n/d marks a figure no free source published for the period — it is never estimated. Charts cover the last three months, one bar per data week, or the last thirteen months: the monthly charts one bar a month, the rate, dollar, oil-stock, crack, gas-storage and moving-average charts as lines, oldest on the left. Model 1.52, from data that stop at the 30 October close. When a front month expired inside the window, as Henry Hub’s November did, the month change is struck on its successor’s own settlement four weeks earlier. Each calendar lists the events of the four weeks and of the month after the close graded ★★ or ★★★. The regime map, Figure 26, is the guide’s Figure 1, rebuilt from the guide on every run; its outlined rows are this edition’s reading (§8). New since 9 October: the US curve and dollar charts, core inflation and gold positioning. A figure revised after publication is corrected in place, and the correction dated here.

Sources

• FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — policy rates, Treasury yields, breakevens, real yields and credit spreads to 29 October, the broad dollar index to 23 October, jobless claims, the Fed balance sheet and the S&P 500 to 28 October
• ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and consumer prices, headline and core (BLS), PCE prices, headline and core (BEA) and euro-area HICP (Eurostat), every release since August 2025, for each month as it stood on each Friday
• US Treasury — par and real yield curves, 30 October 2026
• Federal Reserve — the FOMC calendar; the Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026
• Cleveland Fed — the inflation-expectations model, each release via ALFRED; for Table 7 also the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, September 2026; the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, final October 2026; the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, September 2026
• CME FedWatch probabilities as quoted by Trading Economics, 30 October, and Yardeni Research, 23 October 2026
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report and weekly natural gas storage, week ending 23 October 2026; spot prices — Dated Brent, WTI, NY Harbor ULSD and gasoline, Henry Hub spot, to 27 October; the Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026
• CFTC Commitments of Traders — WTI, Henry Hub, copper and COMEX gold, as of 27 October 2026; ICE Futures Europe Commitments of Traders — ICE Brent, 27 October 2026
• ECB euro reference rates — the dollar against the majors, 30 October 2026
• Baker Hughes — the US rig count, 23 October; IMF PortWatch — Strait of Hormuz transits
• Deutsche Bundesbank — the German 10-year (Svensson curve, 10.0 years); Banque de France — the French 10-year (TEC 10); CNBC — the Italian 10-year (benchmark BTP), checked against the ECB Data Portal’s monthly long-term interest rate for Italy (Banca d’Italia)
• Westmetall — LBMA Gold Price AM; LME copper cash, three-month and stocks
• Yahoo Finance — the front contracts’ own settlements: ICE Brent December, NYMEX Henry Hub November and December, COMEX silver and copper December and the WTI contracts; the TTF and JKM front months; ICE’s dollar index, its daily closes, and the Henry Hub contracts of the winter strip and the S&P 500 on 29–30 October; the continuous ICE Brent (BZ=F) and NYMEX Henry Hub (NG=F) for the moving-average charts
• Investing.com — CME UxC uranium futures to 9 October; SP Angel via ShareTalk — the futures’ closes since, to 29 October, and Shanghai’s weekly copper stocks (23 October)
• Nasdaq — daily closes of the equity ETFs (GDX, GDXJ, XOP, FCG, COPX, URA, URNM) and of the Nasdaq Composite
• SPDR Gold Shares — GLD holdings archive, to 29 October
• State Street, Global X, Sprott ETFs, First Trust and VanEck — sector-ETF shares outstanding; iShares — the Silver Trust’s daily shares outstanding and ounces in trust
• Cochilco, La Rueda — SHFE weekly copper stocks to early October; MetalCharts — CME’s daily COMEX copper stocks, to 29 October; ICSG Copper Bulletin — world refined copper usage and the refined balance
• Mysteel and SMM — China customs’ copper imports, September 2026, and earlier months via SMM and Reuters; National Bureau of Statistics of China — manufacturing PMI, September 2026
• World Gold Council — gold ETF holdings, September 2026; central-bank statistics, August 2026, and each month’s first report back to August 2025 (Figure 10); the PBoC’s reserves via Kitco
• Cameco — uranium month-end prices; its third-quarter results, 30 October 2026, and its share price via Yahoo Finance; Sprott — the trust’s holdings, discount and daily purchases, 30 October
• FNArena, Uranium Week, 27 October 2026, and 6 October — TradeTech’s indicators and spot deals, and the miners’ AI-trade sell-off
• Trading Economics — the gas storage consensus, LSEG’s October production and LNG feedgas (28 October), EU storage on 29 October and the events rows it links
• OPEC press release, 4 October 2026
• Associated Press via ITV News, 8 October 2026 — the President’s statement on Iran (Table 2)
• The events tables’ reports, each linked in its row: investingLive (CPI), XTB (PPI), Seoul Economic Daily (pending home sales), Fattail (the 22 October sell-off), Verified Investing (consumer confidence), Kiplinger (the Fed’s decision), the BEA (GDP and PCE), Mining.com (gold, copper), PriceOfOil, Baird Maritime, Rigzone, FinanceFeeds and BOE Report (oil), Energy News Beat (gas), Mining.com.au (copper) and SP Angel (uranium, 7 October; gold, 29 October)
• Commodities Across the Cycle: A Macro Regime Guide (2026) — Figure 1 and Tables 1, 6 and 7, for the regime map and its reading (§8)
• Release schedules for the calendars: the BLS (payrolls, consumer prices, producer prices), the BEA, USA.gov (the elections), the Federal Reserve (FOMC), the EIA (and its gas storage schedule and STEO schedule), CME, China’s statistics bureau, SAFE and TradeTech

This monthly is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed adviser before acting on it. Every figure is as of the stated date and may be revised by its source. The post was prepared with AI assistance: the data run and the text were generated by Claude and reviewed against the sources linked above.