Weekly Commodity Market Summary (23 Oct 2026)

The week to Friday 23 October 2026. Changes run from the 16 October close. Each report is as last released by then: EIA oil and gas data for the week to 16 October, CFTC positioning as of 20 October, uranium futures at the 22 October close, compared with 15 October. Prepared with AI assistance — see the disclosure at the end.

A war premium in oil and a warm forecast for gas pulled the week apart. This commodity weekly covers the week to 23 October: Brent rose 6.2% to $116.72 as attacks on Saudi energy sites revived the supply scare, while Henry Hub fell 15.3% to $2.640. Gold lost 3.7% even as the 10-year Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 5.00%. The companies behind each market are tracked on Metal Pilot.

The week’s events — each told in full in its section:

• Thu 22 Oct — a tech sell-off and a Treasury rally. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% and the 10-year yield 17 basis points to 4.96%; gold fell with stocks as investors met margin calls (§2, §3).
• Thu 22 Oct — Aramco evacuates Dhahran. After tanker strikes in the Gulf, Brent rose 4.0% to $113.17 (§4).
• Thu 22 Oct — London’s copper stocks jump. They reached 272,950 t, the highest since 27 July, and copper fell to a five-week low (§6).
• Fri 23 Oct — Saudi strikes and a warm forecast. Brent added 3.1% to $116.72, its highest close since 29 April; Henry Hub fell 5.6% to $2.640 (§4, §5).

1. Summary of the week

Oil and gas moved hardest, in opposite directions. Brent rose 6.2% and Henry Hub fell 15.3%; gold lost 3.7% to $4,027, copper 1.2% to $14,415, and uranium held at $90.20 on 22 October, up 0.3%. The gold/oil ratio fell 9.4% to 34.5 barrels an ounce. The 10-year real yield dropped 8 basis points to 2.66% while the dollar index was flat at 101.81; stocks fell, the S&P 500 by 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.7%.

Table 1. The five markets, the week to 23 October 2026

Source: Westmetall (gold, copper), Yahoo Finance (Brent, Henry Hub, the dollar index and the S&P 500 for 22–23 October), SP Angel (uranium), the US Treasury (real yield), FRED and Nasdaq. Gold is the LBMA Gold Price AM and copper the LME cash price; Brent is ICE’s December contract and Henry Hub NYMEX’s November, each the front month, as every earlier value is the front month of its own date; uranium is the CME UxC front month at the 22 October close, the latest published; a close dated in brackets has its changes run from a week, four weeks and a year before its own date. The dollar index is ICE’s own close on 23 October and, for earlier dates, DXY on ICE’s formula from the Fed’s noon rates (101.84 on both on 16 October). Month is four weeks; year to date runs from the last close of 2025. Positive changes are accented.

Figure 1. Change on the week, the five markets and their context, the week to 23 October 2026

Source: Table 1 — every row whose change is in per cent; the 10-year real yield (−8 bp on the week) moves in basis points and stays in the table.

The week’s market-moving US releases, and the week ahead led by the Fed’s 28 October decision, are in the calendar below; each market’s own reports close its section.

Table 2. Macro and policy calendar — the week to 23 October, then the week ahead

2. Rates, bonds and the dollar

Bonds rallied into the Fed meeting, and futures all but ruled out a hike on 28 October. The Fed funds range is 3.75–4.00%; futures put 9% on a quarter-point rise, down from 13% a week earlier, though 84% still expect one by December.

The 10-year yield fell 9 basis points to 5.00% and the 2-year 5 to 4.69%, most of it on 22 October, when a sell-off in technology stocks took the 10-year 17 lower. With Fed officials silent before the meeting, the data were soft: pending home sales fell to the lowest since the index began in 2001.

Next test: the 28 October decision, then September’s PCE prices on 29 October.

Table 3. Rates, bonds and the dollar

Source: FRED — target range (DFEDTARU, DFEDTARL), effective rate (EFFR) and the ICE BofA high-yield spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2), both latest 22 October; the US Treasury’s par and real yield curves for 23 October, which FRED republishes as DGS2, DGS10 and DFII10; CME FedWatch probabilities as quoted by Yardeni Research for the 23 October close and by Reuters via Kitco on 16 October; the dollar index as in Table 1, its row showing changes alone. Positive changes are accented.

What to watch in Table 3

• The hike is off the table, not off the calendar. Odds of a 28 October rise fell to 9% from 13%; odds of one by December slipped to 84% from 90%.
• Real yields fell with nominal ones. The 10-year real yield dropped 8 basis points to 2.66%, still 73 above where the year began.
• Credit widened as stocks fell. The high-yield spread rose 17 basis points to 340, 60 more than four weeks earlier.

More on the Fed and the bond market in The Monetary System, Part 3 and Part 2.

3. Gold

Gold had its worst week since June, down 3.7% even as yields fell. The LBMA price fixed at $4,026.70 on 23 October against $4,181.90 a week earlier.

3.1 The week in numbers

Figure 2. Gold and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Westmetall — the LBMA gold price at each London session, 26 September 2025 to 23 October 2026. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions, computed from the same table back to 2024; Westmetall’s entries for 2 January 2026 ($1,386.85) and 17 May 2024 ($2,832) are left out as bad prints.

It closed below all four moving averages, 10.7% under its 200-day (Figure 2). Silver fell 5.9% to $53.95, lifting the gold/silver ratio to 74.64 (Table 4).

Table 4. Gold — price, silver, miners and flows

Source: Westmetall (gold), Yahoo Finance (silver, COMEX December, the front month; the year-end base the front month’s 31 December settlement via SI=F), Nasdaq (GDX), SPDR (GLD, latest 22 October) and iShares (SLV). The gold/silver ratio divides the 10:30 London fix by the New York settlement of the same day — at year-end, 30 December, the last 2025 fix; a change dated in brackets runs from a week before its own date.

What to watch in Table 4

• Holders sold. GLD lost 8.27 t in the week to 22 October; on the day of the tech sell-off alone it shed 12 t (Table 5).
• Silver’s trust bought the fall. SLV added 19.59 t as the metal fell 5.9%.
• The miners fell more than twice as far as the metal. GDX lost 8.6% to $80.20; the producers are ranked on the gold mining stock screener.

3.2 Events and the week ahead

On 22 October investors sold gold to meet margin calls in the tech sell-off; on 23 October Brent’s jump revived bets on higher rates and spot dipped under $4,000, its lowest since mid-July (Table 5).

Next test: the Fed on 28 October and September’s PCE prices on 29 October set the real yield gold is priced against (Table 5).

Table 5. Gold reports — the week to 23 October, then the week ahead

More on the metal’s long-run drivers in the gold market guide.

4. Oil

The supply scare is back: Brent rose 6.2% to $116.72, its highest close since 29 April. ICE Brent’s December contract settled against $109.86 a week earlier.

4.1 The week in numbers

Figure 3. ICE Brent and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Yahoo Finance — ICE Brent futures, the continuous front month’s daily settlement, 26 September 2025 to 23 October 2026. Yahoo’s series rolled to January on 23 October, so that day is December’s settlement (BZZ26), the front month until it expires on 30 October. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions.

It is 28.0% above its 200-day average (Figure 3), $1.63 short of the 31 March high. WTI’s front month stood $21.73 over the contract a year out, $3.17 more than a week earlier (Table 6).

Table 6. Oil — prices and spreads, the US weekly, rigs and positioning

Source: Yahoo Finance (ICE Brent December; four weeks earlier November, then the front month, via BZ=F), CME’s settlements for WTI’s December 2026 and November 2027 contracts (M1 − M12; 16 October’s from Yahoo’s November 2026 and October 2027 series), the EIA (spot prices, latest 20 October; weekly report, week ending 16 October), Baker Hughes (23 October), the CFTC (20 October) and Nasdaq (XOP). The 3-2-1 crack is two barrels of gasoline and one of ULSD against three of WTI, at EIA’s New York spot prices; n/d = no free dated source for that date.

What to watch in Table 6

• Futures up, the physical premium down. Dated Brent’s premium over WTI shrank to $7.33 on 20 October from $30.39 a week earlier.
• US crude stocks are still falling. Commercial crude fell 3.1 MMbbl to 412.5 in the week to 16 October.
• The producers barely moved. XOP rose 0.7% to $201.69; the names behind it are ranked on the oil stock screener.

4.2 Events and the week ahead

Brent drifted near $109 for three days as a US waiver on some Russian energy sanctions offset Houthi claims against Saudi sites. On 22 October Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters after tanker strikes and Brent rose 4.0%; on 23 October new strikes on Saudi energy sites and a shut Libyan pipeline added 3.1% (Table 7).

Next test: the EIA’s report on 28 October and December Brent’s expiry on 30 October, when the front month passes to January, $5.02 lower (Table 7).

Table 7. Oil reports — the week to 23 October, then the week ahead

More on the curve and the physical premium in the oil market guide.

5. Natural gas

Natural gas fell 15.3% on a warm forecast, to its lowest since late April. NYMEX Henry Hub’s November contract settled at $2.640 on 23 October against $3.116 a week earlier.

5.1 The week in numbers

Figure 4. Henry Hub futures and their 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Yahoo Finance — NYMEX Henry Hub futures, the continuous front month’s daily settlement, 26 September 2025 to 23 October 2026. Yahoo’s series rolled to December on 23 October, so that day is November’s settlement (NGX26), the front month until it expires on 28 October. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions.

It closed 14.4% under its 200-day average (Figure 4). Europe and Asia went the other way: TTF rose 7.2% and JKM 5.0% (Table 8).

Table 8. Natural gas — prices, storage, supply and positioning

Source: Yahoo Finance (Henry Hub November — four weeks earlier October, then the front month, via NG=F — and the TTF and JKM front months), the EIA’s storage report, week ending 16 October, against EIA’s published five-year averages, with the consensus via Trading Economics; LSEG’s month-to-date production and feedgas via Trading Economics (23 October; 16 October from its 16 October report); EU storage from GIE’s AGSI+ (gas day 23 October); the CFTC (20 October) and Nasdaq (FCG). The consensus is a forecast for one week and has no look-back.

What to watch in Table 8

• The surplus is thin. The 77 Bcf injection, 2 Bcf short of forecasts, left stocks 35 Bcf (1.0%) above the five-year average, down from 45.
• Funds added to their short. The managed-money net short grew 30.9k to 157.4k contracts.
• The producers rose against the price. FCG gained 2.5% to $32.12; they are ranked on the natural gas stock screener.

5.2 Events and the week ahead

Forecasts of mild weather into November drove the fall, 3.1% on 20 October and 5.6% on 23 October; the 22 October storage report changed little. TTF reached its highest since late 2022 as Gulf LNG supply stays disrupted (Table 9).

Next test: the November contract’s expiry on 28 October hands the front month to December, at $3.050, and the storage report follows on 29 October (Table 9).

Table 9. Natural gas reports — the week to 23 October, then the week ahead

More on storage and LNG in the natural gas market guide.

6. Copper

Copper slipped 1.2% as London’s stocks swelled by a fifth. LME cash closed at $14,415/t on 23 October against $14,595 a week earlier.

6.1 The week in numbers

Figure 5. LME copper and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Westmetall — the LME copper cash settlement at each London session, 26 September 2025 to 23 October 2026. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions.

It sits just under its 50-day average and 6.5% above its 200-day (Figure 5); London’s cash premium over three-month metal widened $35 to $145/t (Table 10).

Table 10. Copper — prices and spreads, exchange stocks and positioning

Source: Westmetall (LME cash, three-month and stocks), Yahoo Finance (COMEX December, $/lb × 2,204.62 for the arbitrage; the year-end base the front month’s 31 December settlement via HG=F), SP Angel (Shanghai’s weekly stocks; 16 October’s is 23 October’s plus the reported 19,606 t fall), MetalCharts (CME’s COMEX stocks, 798,516 short tons on 23 October), the ICSG (world refined use), the CFTC (20 October) and Nasdaq (COPX). No free source gave COMEX’s stock for 16 October, so its week change and that of the days of use are n/d.

What to watch in Table 10

• Stocks moved to London. LME stocks rose 48,325 t to 273,750 t, much of it into US warehouses, while Shanghai’s fell 19,606 t.
• New York trades below London. COMEX stood $68.4/t under LME cash, against $176.5 above it four weeks earlier — the gap that sends US metal to LME sheds.
• The miners fell seven times as far as the metal. COPX lost 8.6% to $73.09; the miners are ranked on the copper mining stock screener.

6.2 Events and the week ahead

LME Week brought a record 2027 premium from Codelco, $350/t for European buyers, but the price moved on stocks: the LME’s jump sent copper to a five-week low on 22 October, and a 26.5% fall in Shanghai’s lifted it on 23 October (Table 11).

Next test: Freeport-McMoRan’s results on 27 October (Table 11).

Table 11. Copper reports — the week to 23 October, then the week ahead

More on the three exchanges and China in the copper market guide.

7. Uranium

Uranium held at $90 for another week. The CME UxC front month closed at $90.20 on 22 October against $89.90 a week before; the 23 October close was not yet published.

7.1 The week in numbers

Figure 6. U₃O₈ futures and their 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-week moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: CME UxC U₃O₈ futures, the front month’s Friday close — from Investing.com to 9 October and as SP Angel quotes it since; the last point is the 22 October close, the 23 October close not yet published. Each average is the mean of the last 10, 20, 30 or 40 Friday closes.

It sits above all four moving averages (Figure 6); TradeTech’s long-term price, $97.00, is 7.78% over its spot indicator (Table 12).

Table 12. Uranium — price, financial holders and the spot market

Source: CME UxC futures as SP Angel quotes them (22 October; 15 October, the previous close in its 19 October note); TradeTech’s indicators and transactions as FNArena reported them on 20 October for the week to 16 October; Sprott (the trust, 23 October) and Nasdaq (URA). A change dated in brackets runs from a week before its own date.

What to watch in Table 12

• Term stays above spot. TradeTech’s long-term price is 7.78% over spot, 0.36 points less than a week earlier.
• The trust is not buying. Sprott’s trust held 81.70 Mlb at a 13.95% discount to net asset value — too wide to raise money for purchases.
• The miners kept falling. URA lost 3.7% to $34.11 and is down 20.2% this year; the miners are ranked on the uranium mining stock screener.

7.2 Events and the week ahead

No event moved the price: Namibia’s Etango project reached a final investment decision on 23 October, and Westinghouse committed $1 billion to a US fuel plant on 21 October (Table 13).

Next test: Cameco’s results and the month-end prices, both on 30 October (Table 13).

Table 13. Uranium reports — the week to 23 October, then the week ahead

More on term contracting in the uranium market guide.

8. Method and sources

Built by one script from free sources — the Commodity Monthly’s model — which keeps every value with the date it was fetched and every hand-entered value with its link. Prices are Friday closes; a date in brackets marks the latest a source had published. n/d is never an estimate. Events are those graded ★★ or ★★★. Model 1.47, first weekly edition, from data read on 25 October.

Sources

• FRED and the US Treasury — rates, yields, spreads and the dollar; CME FedWatch and the odds of a BoJ hike via Yardeni Research and Reuters via Kitco
• The EIA — oil and gas storage, week to 16 October; Baker Hughes; the CFTC
• Yahoo Finance — futures settlements by contract and ICE’s dollar index; Westmetall — LBMA gold and LME copper; Nasdaq, SPDR and iShares — ETFs
• Trading Economics — LSEG gas data and the storage consensus; GIE’s AGSI+ — EU gas storage; SP Angel and MetalCharts — exchange stocks and uranium futures; FNArena and Sprott — uranium
• News: Baird Maritime, Rigzone, FinanceFeeds, Reuters via Mining.com and Mining.com, Mining.com.au, Kitco, Fat Tail, Seoul Economic Daily, Energy News Beat and World Nuclear News (Westinghouse); the schedules are linked in each events table

This weekly is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed adviser before acting on it. Every figure is as of the stated date and may be revised by its source. The post was prepared with AI assistance: the data run and the text were generated by Claude and reviewed against the sources linked above.