Weekly Commodity Market Summary (6 Nov 2026)

The week to Friday 6 November 2026. Changes run from the 30 October close. Each report is as last released by then: EIA oil and gas data for the week to 30 October, CFTC positioning as of 3 November, uranium futures at the 5 November close, compared with 29 October. Money in US dollars ($), TTF in euros (€). Prepared with AI assistance — see the disclosure at the end.

The midterms drained oil’s war premium and sent money from technology stocks into gold. This commodity weekly covers the week to 6 November: Brent fell 13.3% to $98.32 as Democrats took both houses of Congress and hopes of an Iran settlement grew, while gold rose 2.2% to $4,070 on the haven bid. Copper lost 3.4% as the rout in AI stocks reached the metal, and the week’s first test is October’s CPI on 10 November. The companies behind each market are tracked on Metal Pilot.

The week’s events — each told in full in its section:

• Wed 4 Nov — a Democratic Congress. Brent’s January contract fell to $94.62 and gold rose 3.6% to $4,043.65 (§3, §4).
• Thu 5 Nov — the AI rout reaches copper. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% and COMEX copper’s December contract 2.5% to $13,823/t (§1, §6).
• Thu 5 Nov — a smaller gas build. Storage rose 77 Bcf against 81 Bcf expected, and Henry Hub’s December settled at $2.998 the next day (§5).
• Fri 6 Nov — payrolls beat. October’s 165,000 jobs lifted the odds of a December hike to 77% and pulled gold back (§1, §3).

1. Summary of the week

Havens won and growth trades lost: oil, copper and stocks fell together while gold and US gas rose. The political shock hit the markets that had priced the AI build-out or the Iran war and spared those priced on safety and weather, while uranium barely moved (Figure 1). The dollar index rose 0.4% to 102.30 and the high-yield spread widened 22 basis points to 348 on 5 November; the S&P 500 lost 2.7% and the Nasdaq Composite 3.4%, and the gold/oil ratio rose 18.0% to 41.4 barrels an ounce.

Table 1. The five markets, the week to 6 November 2026

Source: Westmetall (gold, copper), Yahoo Finance (Brent, Henry Hub, the dollar index, and the S&P 500 for 30 October and 6 November), SP Angel (uranium), the US Treasury’s par and real yield curves (the 10-year Treasury and real yields), FRED and Nasdaq. Gold is the LBMA Gold Price AM and copper the LME cash price. Brent is ICE’s January 2027 contract, the front month since December expired on 30 October; its week and month changes are struck on January’s own settlements of 30 October, $113.43, and 9 October, $101.25, so the roll from December ($117.64 on 30 October) does not enter them. Henry Hub is NYMEX’s December, the front month since November expired on 28 October; its month change is struck on December’s own settlement of 9 October, $3.546, so the roll from November does not enter it. The year-to-date bases of both are the front month’s settlement on 31 December 2025, from Yahoo’s continuous series (BZ=F, NG=F). Uranium is the CME UxC front month at the 5 November close, the latest published, its four-week and year-end bases Investing.com’s (8 October, 31 December); a close dated in brackets has its changes run from a week and four weeks before its own date. The dollar index is ICE’s own daily close (DX-Y.NYB) on every date, 6 November’s 102.30 and 31 December 2025 included. Month is four weeks; YTD runs from the last close of 2025. Positive changes are accented.

Figure 1. Oil fell furthest and gold and US gas rose — change on the week, the five markets and their context, the week to 6 November 2026

Source: Table 1 — every row whose change is in per cent but the gold/oil ratio, which divides two prices the figure already draws; it stays in the table with the 10-year Treasury yield (−8 bp on the week) and the 10-year real yield (+3 bp), which move in basis points.

The week’s market-moving US releases, and the week ahead led by October’s CPI on 10 November, are in the calendar below; each market’s own reports close its section.

Table 2. Macro and policy calendar — the week to 6 November, then the week ahead

Source: each row links to its publisher’s report or a report of it — the midterm result and the technology sell-off via Trading Economics, the October payrolls and the hike odds via Invezz; the dates ahead from the BLS’s schedules, the hike odds from Table 3. Impact: ★★★ market-defining, ★★ a clear same-day reaction, ★ tone-setting — graded on the observed move above the line, on the reference tiers below it. Only events graded ★★ or ★★★ are listed; every calendar in this post covers the week to the close and the week after it.

2. Rates, bonds and the dollar

Strong payrolls put a December hike back at three-in-four odds, even as bonds rallied on the election. The Fed funds range is 3.75–4.00%; futures put 77% on a quarter-point rise at the December meeting, the year’s last, up from 72% a week earlier.

The 10-year yield fell 8 basis points to 4.86% and the 2-year 5 to 4.51%, most of it on 5 November, when the sell-off in technology stocks after the midterms sent money into Treasuries. October’s 165,000 jobs on 6 November took part of the rally back.

More on the Fed and the bond market in The Monetary System, Part 3 and Part 2.

Table 3. Rates, bonds and the dollar — policy, Treasuries, credit and the dollar index

Source: FRED — target range (DFEDTARU, DFEDTARL), effective rate (EFFR) and the ICE BofA high-yield spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2), both latest 5 November; the US Treasury’s par and real yield curves for 6 November, which FRED republishes as DGS2, DGS10 and DFII10; CME FedWatch probabilities as quoted by Invezz for the 6 November close and by Trading Economics on 30 October, both for the 8–9 December meeting; the dollar index as in Table 1, its row showing changes alone. Positive changes are accented.

What to watch in Table 3

• Real yields rose against nominal ones. The 10-year real yield added 3 bp to 2.63%, though it is 28 bp lower than four weeks earlier and 70 bp above where the year began.
• Credit widened with the equity sell-off. The high-yield spread rose 22 bp to 348 on 5 November, 67 bp wider than at the start of the year.
• The dollar firmed on the jobs data. The index rose 0.4% to 102.30, up 0.1% on four weeks and 4.1% this year.

Next test. October’s CPI on 10 November, then producer prices on 13 November (Table 2).

3. Gold

Gold rose 2.2% as money left technology stocks for havens after the midterms. The LBMA AM price fixed at $4,070.35 on 6 November against $3,981.10 a week earlier.

More on the metal’s long-run drivers in the gold market guide.

3.1 The week in numbers

The price. It closed below all four of its moving averages, 9.1% under its 200-day (Figure 2), 7.3% lower this year and 26.0% below its high of $5,502 on 29 January, having touched the window’s low of $3,897 on 2 November (Table 4).

Figure 2. Gold rose off the window’s low but closed below all four averages, 9.1% under its 200-day — gold and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Westmetall — the LBMA gold price at each London session, 10 October 2025 to 6 November 2026. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions, computed from the same table back to 2024; Westmetall’s entries for 2 January 2026 ($1,386.85) and 17 May 2024 ($2,832) are left out as bad prints.

Table 4. Gold — price and flows

Source: Westmetall (gold), Yahoo Finance (silver, COMEX December, the front month; the year-end base the front month’s 31 December settlement via SI=F), Nasdaq (GDX), SPDR (GLD, latest 5 November) and iShares (SLV). The gold/silver ratio divides the 10:30 London fix by the New York settlement of the same day — at year-end, 30 December, the last 2025 fix; a change dated in brackets runs from a week before its own date.

What to watch in Table 4

• Holders did not follow the price. GLD slipped 0.57 t to 1,040.51 t in the week to 5 November, 14.90 t lower than four weeks earlier.
• Silver outran gold. COMEX December silver rose 5.4% to $51.94, cutting the gold/silver ratio by 2.43 to 78.36, and SLV added 70.1 t.
• The miners rose six times as far as the metal. GDX gained 13.6% to $87.60; the producers are ranked on the gold mining stock screener.

3.2 Events and the week ahead

On 4 November the Democrats’ capture of both houses of Congress lifted gold as energy prices and yields fell; on 6 November stronger payrolls lifted the dollar and pulled it back.

Table 5. Gold reports — the week to 6 November, then the week ahead

Source: each row links to its report — the post-election rally and the payroll-day fall via Trading Economics, the LBMA prices in the Reads Westmetall’s (as in Table 4); the dates ahead from SAFE’s release page and the BLS’s schedule. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. China’s October reserves on 7 November and US CPI on 10 November (Table 5).

4. Oil

The war premium broke: Brent fell 13.3% to $98.32 as the midterms and hopes of an Iran settlement eased supply fears. ICE Brent’s January contract settled against its own $113.43 a week earlier.

More on the curve and the physical premium in the oil market guide.

4.1 The week in numbers

The price. It fell below its 50-day average but stays above the other three, 5.3% over the 200-day (Figure 3), 61.6% higher this year and 16.9% below the window’s high of $118.35 on 31 March. The curve flattened with it: WTI’s front month stood $14.41 over the contract a year out, $6.70 less than a week earlier (Table 6).

Figure 3. Brent fell below its 50-day average, closing 5.3% above its 200-day — ICE Brent and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Yahoo Finance — ICE Brent futures, the continuous front month’s daily settlement, 10 October 2025 to 6 November 2026. The chart keeps December’s own settlements (BZZ26) to its expiry on 30 October and January’s (BZF27) from 2 November. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions.

Table 6. Oil — prices and spreads, the US weekly, supply signals and positioning

Source: Yahoo Finance (ICE Brent January 2027, the front month since December expired on 30 October, its week and month changes struck on its own 30 October and 9 October settlements so the roll from December does not enter them; the year-end base the front month’s settlement of 31 December 2025 via BZ=F), Yahoo Finance’s series for WTI’s December 2026 and November 2027 contracts (CLZ26, CLX27; M1 − M12, its month change struck on that pair’s own 9 October settlements, $12.73, as November 2026 expired on 20 October), the EIA (spot prices, latest 3 November; weekly report, week ending 30 October), Baker Hughes (6 November, via Oil & Gas 360), the CFTC (3 November) and Nasdaq (XOP). The 3-2-1 crack is two barrels of gasoline and one of ULSD against three of WTI, at EIA’s New York spot prices; n/d = no free dated source for that date.

What to watch in Table 6

• The physical premium collapsed. Dated Brent’s premium over WTI fell $12.34 to $7.39 on 3 November.
• US distillates drew hard. Distillate stocks fell 3.57 MMbbl to 99.26 in the week to 30 October, while commercial crude slipped 0.87.
• The producers fell further than the price. XOP lost 14.7% to $173.77; the names behind it are ranked on the oil stock screener.

4.2 Events and the week ahead

On 4 November the Democrats’ win, which traders read as a check on the war with Iran, took January Brent down the furthest of the week; on 5 November reported attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz won part of the fall back.

Table 7. Oil reports — the week to 6 November, then the week ahead

Source: each row links to its report — the midterm result and the tanker attacks via Trading Economics, the settlements in the Reads the front contract’s own (Yahoo Finance, as in Table 6); the dates ahead from the EIA’s release schedules. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. The EIA’s outlook on 10 November and its weekly report on 12 November, a day late for Veterans Day (Table 7).

5. Natural gas

US gas rose 3.5% against the rest of the energy complex, on a smaller storage build. NYMEX Henry Hub’s December contract settled at $2.998 on 6 November against $2.898 a week earlier.

More on storage and LNG in the natural gas market guide.

5.1 The week in numbers

The price. It closed above its 50-, 100- and 150-day averages but 1.5% under its 200-day (Figure 4), and 18.7% lower this year. Europe and Asia went the other way: TTF fell 17.7% to €85.59/MWh, $28.01 in Henry Hub’s unit and under the JKM’s $31.49, itself down 4.1% (Table 8).

Figure 4. Henry Hub closed above three of its averages but 1.5% under its 200-day — Henry Hub futures and their 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Yahoo Finance — NYMEX Henry Hub futures, the continuous front month’s daily settlement, 10 October 2025 to 6 November 2026. The chart keeps November’s own settlements (NGX26) to its expiry on 28 October and December’s (NGZ26) from 29 October. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions.

Table 8. Natural gas — price, storage, supply and Europe

Source: Yahoo Finance (Henry Hub December, the front month since November expired on 28 October, its month change struck on its own 9 October settlement, $3.546, so the roll from November does not enter it; the year-end base the front month’s settlement of 31 December 2025 via NG=F; and the TTF and JKM front months — TTF’s 30 October settlement from Investing.com, as Yahoo now serves only its latest session), the EIA’s storage report, week ending 30 October, against EIA’s published five-year averages, with the consensus via Trading Economics; month-to-date production and feedgas via Trading Economics (November to 6 November; the week-earlier values October to date, from its 28 October and 29 October reports); EU storage from GIE’s AGSI+, gas day 6 November, against its own gas days of 30 October, 9 October and 31 December 2025; the CFTC (3 November) and Nasdaq (FCG). The consensus is a forecast for one week and has no look-back. Beneath TTF’s close, its dollar equivalent in the unit Henry Hub and the JKM are quoted in: € per MWh × the ECB’s dollar reference rate of the day (1.1165 on 6 November) ÷ 3.412142 MMBtu per MWh.

What to watch in Table 8

• The surplus widened. The 77 Bcf injection, 4 Bcf short of forecasts, still left stocks 54 Bcf (1.4%) above the five-year average, up from 38.
• Funds sold into the rise. The managed-money net short grew 19.04 k to 225.36 k contracts in the week to 3 November.
• The producers fell against the price. FCG lost 14.5% to $27.93; they are ranked on the natural gas stock screener.

5.2 Events and the week ahead

On 5 November the EIA’s smaller-than-expected build lifted the December contract into the end of the week, while in Europe hopes of a Middle East settlement pulled TTF lower on 6 November.

Table 9. Natural gas reports — the week to 6 November, then the week ahead

Source: each row links to its report — the storage report and its consensus, and TTF’s fall, via Trading Economics; the date ahead from the EIA’s storage schedule. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. The storage report on 13 November, a day late for Veterans Day (Table 9).

6. Copper

Copper fell 3.4% as the AI sell-off reached the metal wired into data centres. LME cash closed at $13,955/t on 6 November against $14,449 a week earlier.

More on the three exchanges and China in the copper market guide.

6.1 The week in numbers

The price. It fell below its 50- and 100-day averages but stays 2.6% over the 200-day (Figure 5), 11.6% higher this year and 6.0% below the window’s high of $14,850 on 17 August. London’s cash premium over three-month metal narrowed $24 to $175/t (Table 10).

Figure 5. Copper fell below its 50- and 100-day averages, 2.6% above its 200-day — LME copper and its 50-, 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: Westmetall — the LME copper cash settlement at each London session, 10 October 2025 to 6 November 2026. Each average is the mean of the last 50, 100, 150 or 200 sessions.

Table 10. Copper — prices and spreads, exchange stocks and positioning

Source: Westmetall (LME cash, three-month and stocks), Yahoo Finance (COMEX December, $/lb × 2,204.62 for the arbitrage; the year-end base the front month’s 31 December settlement via HG=F), Reuters via Mining.com (Shanghai’s weekly stocks, report of 6 November), MetalCharts (CME’s COMEX stocks, 807,930 short tons as of 6 November; a week earlier, the 29 October report, the latest then), the ICSG (world refined use), the CFTC (3 November) and Nasdaq (COPX). No free source gave Shanghai’s stock for 30 October, so its week change and that of the days of use are n/d.

What to watch in Table 10

• Metal kept piling up in London and draining from Shanghai. LME stocks rose 42,675 t to 316,675 t, while Shanghai’s fell to 33,848 t.
• New York’s discount to London deepened. COMEX stood $204/t under LME cash, $45 more than a week earlier, against $64 above it four weeks before.
• The miners held up better than the metal. COPX slipped 1.0% to $71.25; the miners are ranked on the copper mining stock screener.

6.2 Events and the week ahead

On 5 November fears that a Democratic Congress would slow US data-centre building took copper down with chip stocks; on 6 November Shanghai’s weekly report showed its stocks down by a quarter, and the tight supply it signals limited the fall.

Table 11. Copper reports — the week to 6 November, then the week ahead

Source: each row links to its report — the fall with chip stocks via Trading Economics, Shanghai’s draw via Reuters on Mining.com, the settlements in the Reads COMEX December’s own (Yahoo Finance, as in Table 10), converted from $/lb at 2,204.62 lb a tonne; the date ahead from Trading Economics’ release calendar for China’s customs data. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. China’s October trade data on 10 November, the first read on its imports since the draw (Table 11).

7. Uranium

Uranium futures barely moved while the rest of the market swung. The CME UxC front month closed at $91.80 on 5 November against $92.20 a week before; the 6 November close was not yet published.

More on term contracting in the uranium market guide.

7.1 The week in numbers

The price. The future is above all four of its moving averages, the 10-week at $90.31 (Figure 6), 12.4% higher this year and 7.5% below the window’s high of $99.25 on 30 January. Spot ran ahead of it: TradeTech’s indicator jumped 3.9% to $93.25 in the week to 30 October, on 14 transactions (Table 12).

Figure 6. The futures held above all four averages, 7.5% below the window’s high — U₃O₈ futures and their 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-week moving averages, last thirteen months

Source: CME UxC U₃O₈ futures, the front month’s Friday close — from Investing.com to 9 October and as SP Angel quotes it since; the last point is the 5 November close, the 6 November close not yet published. Each average is the mean of the last 10, 20, 30 or 40 Friday closes.

Table 12. Uranium — price, financial holders and the spot market

Source: CME UxC futures as SP Angel quotes them (5 November; 29 October, from its 30 October note); the four-week and year-end bases Investing.com’s (8 October, 31 December); TradeTech’s indicators and transactions as FNArena reported them on 3 November for the week to 30 October; Sprott (the trust, 6 November) and Nasdaq (URA). A change dated in brackets runs from a week before its own date.

What to watch in Table 12

• Term’s lead over spot halved. TradeTech’s long-term price, $97.00, is 4.0% over spot, 4.1 pp less than a week earlier.
• The trust is still not buying. Sprott’s trust held 81.70 Mlb at a 16.05% discount to net asset value — too wide to raise money for purchases.
• The miners fell with growth stocks. URA lost 4.1% to $32.34 and is down 24.3% this year; the miners are ranked on the uranium mining stock screener.

7.2 Events and the week ahead

No event moved the price: the late-October spot buying FNArena reported on 3 November did not carry into the futures.

Table 13. Uranium reports — the week to 6 November, then the week ahead

Source: no uranium event graded ★★ or above in the week; the date ahead from TradeTech’s Friday indicators. Impact stars and selection as in Table 2.

Next test. TradeTech’s indicators on 13 November show whether spot holds its late-October rise (Table 13).

8. Method and sources

Built by one script from free sources — the Commodity Monthly’s model — which keeps every value with the date it was fetched and every hand-entered value with its link. Prices are Friday closes, a date in brackets marks the latest a source had published, and a future’s changes run on the contract in front at the close. n/d is never an estimate; events are those graded ★★ or ★★★. Model 1.59, re-run on 8 November on the data as read on 7 November.

Sources

• FRED and the US Treasury — rates, yields and spreads; CME FedWatch via Invezz and Trading Economics
• The EIA — oil and gas storage, week to 30 October; Baker Hughes via Oil & Gas 360; the CFTC
• Yahoo Finance — futures settlements by contract, ICE’s dollar index and the S&P 500; Westmetall — LBMA gold and LME copper; Nasdaq, SPDR and iShares — ETFs
• Trading Economics — gas output, feedgas and the storage consensus; GIE’s AGSI+ — EU storage; the ECB — the dollar rate behind TTF’s dollar figure; SP Angel — uranium futures; MetalCharts — COMEX stocks; FNArena and Sprott — uranium
• News: Trading Economics on the midterms and copper, Treasuries, gold and Brent; Reuters via Mining.com; Invezz on the payrolls; the schedules are linked in each events table

This weekly is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed adviser before acting on it. Every figure is as of the stated date and may be revised by its source. The post was prepared with AI assistance: the data run and the text were generated by Claude and reviewed against the sources linked above.