Centrus Energy (LEU) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.3]

Analysis as of 26 October 2026. Price deck: base SWU US$110/SWU — the representative recent price, set from the EIA’s 2024 and 2025 prints of what US utilities paid per separative work unit — on the fixed US$80 · 95 · 110 · 125 · 140/SWU grid, with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$80 to deep bull US$140) and the SWU price at which NAV meets the share price as a 0% cross-check — no spot price; uranium is held at US$90/lb. At US$98.44 a share the market implies an SWU deck of US$200/SWU. Fundamentals from Centrus’s FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q; market data at the 26 October 2026 NYSE close; all figures in US dollars. Refreshed on each annual report and on material events. Rating: ★★★½ Solid / Overvalued (wide band).

Centrus Energy sells enriched uranium — separative work units (SWU) — and natural uranium to utilities from a US$3.7 bn backlog that runs to 2040, and operates the Department of Energy’s high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) cascade at Piketon, Ohio. The thesis in one line: the cash and the backlog are real, but at US$98.44 the shares price an SWU deck of US$200 — nearly twice anything US utilities paid in 2021–2025 — while a model on filed margins finds US$55.12. Why now: the shares have fallen from a US$390.82 close a year ago to a 52-week low, the Piketon expansion still has no filed capital estimate, and the import-ban waivers for Russian enrichment end in 2027. To screen Centrus against every listed uranium name, go to Metal Pilot’s uranium mining stock screener.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Centrus Energy Corp. (NYSE: LEU) is a nuclear-fuel supplier — archetype processor / converter, sector uranium and nuclear fuel — headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland. It reports two segments: LEU, which sells SWU and natural uranium bought under the Orano Supply Agreement (deliveries to 2030) and the 2011 TENEX contract, and Technical Solutions, which runs the HALEU cascade at Piketon, Ohio, for the DOE. A third asset, the commercial expansion of LEU and HALEU capacity at Piketon announced on 25 September 2025, is in development. Centrus mines nothing, so there are no reserves; the valuation runs on segment margins. (SWU = separative work unit, the measure of enrichment effort; HALEU = uranium enriched to between 5% and 20% U-235.)

Figure 1. Centrus Energy in numbers, as of 26 October 2026

Figure data: Table 1; NAV, blend and market-implied deck per Section 7, rating per Section 9.

Table 1. Centrus Energy in numbers

Source: Centrus SEC filings — FY2025 10-K (statements p.106–108, segment results p.73), Q2 2026 10-Q (balance sheet p.7, debt note p.18, backlog p.42); share prices per Yahoo Finance daily history at the 26 October 2026 close.

Thesis in brief. Bull: US$661.0 m of net cash, a backlog worth 10.7 years of FY2025 LEU segment revenue and the DOE’s HALEU and LEU production awards give Centrus a funded place in a US fuel cycle that is rebuilding enrichment; a filed expansion at sound returns would add value the model holds at cost. Bear: the LEU segment resells enrichment it buys — much of it Russian — on terms it does not disclose, at a 32.2% gross margin in 2025, and even at US$140/SWU the blend reaches only US$73.76, 25% below the price. What tips it: a filed capital estimate, schedule and contracted offtake for the expansion, and supply secured past the 2027 waiver deadline and the 2030 end of the Orano agreement. Full rating in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: the statcards and Section 9 carry the verdict; Sections 2–6 carry the evidence, Section 7 the valuation.

2. Assets & operations

How enrichment, conversion and term contracting sit in the uranium market is covered in Uranium — A Complete Market Guide. Centrus’s assets are one site and two supply contracts: the Piketon plant it operates, and the Orano and TENEX agreements behind the SWU it resells.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Table 2. Centrus Energy segments and assets, by value

Source: Centrus SEC filings — FY2025 10-K (revenue p.107, segment results p.73), Q2 2026 10-Q (backlog p.42, HALEU p.55); base values from Table 9 at US$110/SWU and 10%.

The LEU segment carries 77% of FY2025 revenue and 77.1% of enterprise NAV, and the two largest customers took 31% of FY2025 revenue. Piketon carries the rest: the HALEU cascade, the expansion, and property, plant and equipment of US$142.5 m at 30 June 2026, up from US$29.5 m at the year end.

2.2 Revenue split

Figure 2. Revenue by product (SWU, uranium, technical solutions)

Source: Centrus FY2025 10-K, Consolidated Statements of Operations p.107; shares of US$448.7 m sum to 100.0%.

Figure 3. Enterprise value by segment (base case)

Source: this analysis — Table 9 at US$110/SWU and 10%; shares of the US$843.8 m enterprise NAV sum to 100.1% on rounding.

SWU is two-thirds of revenue and the LEU segment over three-quarters of value; uranium sales swing with what Centrus chooses to sell — US$103.1 m in 2024, US$47.5 m in 2025.

2.3 LEU segment

The LEU segment is held directly by Centrus Energy Corp. at 100%, with no encumbrance filed. It buys SWU under the Orano Supply Agreement, signed in 2018 with deliveries to 2030, and the 2011 TENEX Supply Contract with Russia’s state supplier — TENEX is “a major supplier of SWU to the Company”, on annual quotas the 10-K keeps confidential — and sells it with natural uranium from inventory to utilities. SWU revenue grew from US$208.2 m (2023) to US$246.8 m (2024) and US$298.7 m (2025); SWU volumes are not disclosed. Gross profit was US$111.5 m in 2025 and US$93.9 m in 2024, and US$79.5 m in the first half of 2026 against US$81.9 m a year earlier. The backlog rose from US$2.9 bn at the year end to US$3.7 bn at 30 June 2026 and extends to 2040. No cost per SWU is filed. The one asset risk is supply: the import-ban waivers that let Russian SWU into the US end in 2027.

2.4 Piketon HALEU cascade and expansion

Technical Solutions runs through American Centrifuge Operating (ACO), 100% owned, on the leased DOE site at Piketon, where the DOE retains the decommissioning. Phase 2 of the HALEU Operation Contract covers the production of 900 kg of HALEU UF₆, and the segment’s backlog, US$0.8 bn at 30 June 2026, runs to 2034. Segment revenue rose from US$51.2 m (2023) to US$102.5 m (2025), but gross profit fell from US$17.6 m (2024) to US$6.0 m (2025), and was −US$1.7 m in Q2 2026. The DOE also awarded ACO two IDIQ contracts — HALEU production on 16 October 2024 and LEU production on 10 December 2024 — which fund work only through task orders.

The commercial expansion, announced on 25 September 2025, is the development asset. Its remaining capital, first-production date, ramp by year and capacity are n/d, and the NRC licence status for the expanded plant is n/d — the approvals in hand are not itemised in the filings. What is filed is the spend: capital expenditure of US$94.8 m in H1 2026 against US$5.7 m a year earlier, property, plant and equipment up from US$29.5 m to US$142.5 m, and deposits for financial assurance up from US$2.7 m to US$33.2 m.

2.5 Deliveries, backlog & costs

Figure 4. LEU segment revenue — SWU and uranium

Source: Centrus FY2025 10-K, Consolidated Statements of Operations p.107 (SWU and uranium lines).

Figure 5. LEU segment backlog (US$ bn)

Source: Centrus Q2 2026 10-Q, MD&A — backlog p.42.

The LEU segment earned a 32.2% gross margin in 2025 and 26.8% in 2024; Technical Solutions 5.9% and 19.1%. In the first half of 2026 the segment sold US$141.6 m of SWU and US$56.4 m of uranium. Centrus reports cost of sales by segment only, so margin is the cost read.

2.6 Peer positioning

The peer set is the listed Western nuclear-fuel suppliers with filed financials — Cameco, Energy Fuels, BWX Technologies and ASP Isotopes; Urenco and Orano, the true enrichment peers, are unlisted. None is in a pending deal; the set is used for every star in Section 9.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: Centrus SEC filings; Cameco 2025 annual MD&A (consolidated financial results p.17) and Q2 2026 interim statements; Energy Fuels’ revenue, cash margin and net cash are Derived · Energy Fuels analysis Table 1, on its FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q. Margin bases differ — gross profit for Centrus and Cameco, cash margin for Energy Fuels; currencies as reported.

Centrus’s 26.2% gross margin sits beside Cameco’s 27.9% and above Energy Fuels’ 20.9% cash margin, and its net cash is the largest in the set. BWX Technologies and ASP Isotopes are shown for their business lines; their figures are n/d here, so they inform the scores only qualitatively.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 4. Five-year financial summary (US$m unless stated)

Source: Centrus SEC filings — FY2025 10-K (statements p.106–108) for FY2023–FY2025, FY2023 10-K (statements p.96–98) for FY2021–FY2022, FY2022 10-K (balance sheet p.83) for FY2021 cash and debt. EBITDA = operating income + D&A; free cash flow = operating cash flow − capital expenditures; net debt = long-term debt at carrying value − cash.

Earnings and cash. Revenue rose from US$298.3 m (FY2021) to US$448.7 m (FY2025), most of it in 2024 (+38.0%), while EBITDA stayed near US$60 m in 2023–2025. Net income has run ahead of operating cash flow — US$77.8 m against US$51.0 m in 2025, US$84.4 m against US$9.1 m in 2023 — as inventories and deferred revenue moved. In the first half of 2026 operating cash flow was −US$16.7 m and capital expenditure US$94.8 m, mostly the expansion; investment income on the cash was US$33.3 m. Capital expenditure is filed as one line, so the sustaining and growth split is n/d.

Cost deck. Centrus gives no guidance — no volume, unit cost or capital — and reports cost of sales by segment only, so the cost read is the segment gross margin (§2.5). Corporate costs, FY2025 gross profit less operating income, were US$67.3 m; in H1 2026 SG&A of US$36.2 m and advanced technology costs of US$29.7 m ran at US$131.8 m a year. Tax was an US$8.1 m expense in 2025, and a US$355.4 m valuation allowance is still held against federal and state deferred tax assets.

Net cash and liquidity. At 30 June 2026 cash was US$1,868.5 m against US$1,207.5 m of convertible notes at face — 2.25% due November 2030 (US$402.5 m) and 0% due August 2032 (US$805.0 m) — for net cash of US$661.0 m; contractual interest was US$4.5 m in the half, and covenants are n/d. Benefit obligations add US$71.7 m (postretirement US$68.8 m, pension US$2.9 m). With net cash larger than ten years of EBITDA, a lower SWU price cannot push leverage up. There is no asset retirement obligation on the face — the DOE retains the Piketon decommissioning — and leases are n/d. Hedge book: unhedged; the 10-K states Centrus does not hedge market risk.

Capital returns. No dividend and no buyback; the at-the-market programme raised US$53.9 m in H1 2026. Diluted shares rose from 15.501 m (FY2023) to 19.925 m (FY2025) and 21.891 m in Q2 2026; 19,952,858 Class A and Class B shares were outstanding at 30 June 2026. How each line is built is in the Financial Metrics guide.

4. Management, strategy & structure

4.1 Management & governance

Amir V. Vexler (53) has been President and CEO since 1 January 2024, after joining as Special Advisor to the Board on 4 December 2023; Todd M. Tinelli (45) joined as Senior Vice President, CFO and Treasurer on 11 August 2025. Mikel H. Williams, independent, has chaired the board since September 2014; the 2026 proxy put up six nominees, five independent under the NYSE definition — all but the CEO — and the Audit and Finance and the Compensation, Nominating and Governance committees are wholly independent. Related-party detail is n/d. A Section 382 rights plan, amended for the seventh time on 18 June 2026, triggers at 4.99% ownership to protect the tax losses; it also deters a large holder.

4.2 Strategy

The strategy is to turn Piketon from a DOE cascade into commercial LEU and HALEU capacity: Phase 2 of the HALEU Operation Contract (900 kg of HALEU), the DOE’s HALEU Production Contract (an IDIQ awarded on 16 October 2024) and LEU Production Contract (10 December 2024), and the commercial expansion announced on 25 September 2025. No capacity target, capital estimate or date is filed for the expansion. Centrus is also exploring a joint venture with Oklo Inc. focused on deconversion (March 2026).

4.3 Ownership & structure

The one acquisition on file is Westerman Holdings, LLC, a centrifuge component manufacturer, announced on 19 October 2026; its price and any stock consideration are n/d. No joint venture is signed — Oklo is exploratory — and no strategic investor is on file; the 2026 proxy lists three holders above 5% of Class A at 27 March 2026: D. E. Shaw (5.1%), BlackRock (5.0%) and Global X (5.0%). Technical Solutions runs through the subsidiary American Centrifuge Operating (ACO). The capital is Class A shares (NYSE: LEU, moved from NYSE American on 4 December 2025) and Class B shares — 19,233,658 and 719,200 at 30 June 2026 — plus the two convertible notes, convertible at US$97.50 (2.25%) and US$229.62 (0%) a share with the principal settled in cash, so only value above the conversion price dilutes — about 0.04 m shares at US$98.44; Q3 2026 at-the-market sales are n/d until the Q3 10-Q.

5. ESG & sustainability

Centrus files little on ESG: no safety rate, emissions target or reporting framework appears in its 10-Ks or 10-Qs, which is why Dimension 9 scores ★★. It has no tailings exposure, since it mines nothing, and no decommissioning provision, because the DOE retains the Piketon site’s decommissioning. Deposits for financial assurance rose from US$2.7 m to US$33.2 m in the first half of 2026. The case for domestic enrichment replacing Russian supply is a policy argument, not a disclosed programme.

6. Risks

Table 5. Risk register

Source: Centrus SEC filings — FY2025 10-K (risk factors p.33), Q2 2026 10-Q (commitments p.24, balance sheet p.7, debt note p.18, segments p.29); the SWU, supply and cost sensitivities from Table 17. Likelihood and impact are this analysis’s assessment.

Figure 6. Risk matrix — likelihood × impact

Source: Table 5. The shaded region marks the high-likelihood, high-impact quadrant.

Section 7 prices four of these: the SWU price through the grid, the supply cliff through the LEU-to-2030 case, corporate costs through the run-rate case and dilution through the basic-count case (Table 17, field 11). The expansion is held at cost — the risk and the upside the market carries.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 26 October 2026, built in US dollars per diluted share against the US$98.44 NYSE close of 26 October 2026. Horizon: spot fair value. Deck: SWU US$110 — the EIA’s weighted-average price paid per separative work unit by US owners and operators — on a US$80–140 grid in US$15 steps, snapped from the 2024 and 2025 prints (US$97.66, US$108.70); uranium US$90/lb (grid US$60–120) held in every column, from its 3-month (US$88.56), 6-month (US$86.87) and 12-month (US$85.34) month-end averages to September 2026; 10% real after-tax.

Centrus is valued as a processor under the Commodity Stock Valuation framework: it mines nothing, so there is no reserve to build a NAV on. A sum of the parts on mid-cycle margins carries 55% of the weight and an FCF-yield support price on the next twelve months 45%. The framework’s third processor method, EV per complexity-adjusted unit, needs an anchor re-sourced from a dataset median or three dated enrichment transactions, and neither is in reach — Urenco and Orano, the true peers, are unlisted — so it is dropped and its weight split across the other two.

Three choices set the level. The first is the deck. No monthly SWU benchmark is public — the UxC and TradeTech indicators are subscriber-only — so the deck is the price US utilities actually paid, the book Centrus sells into; the base sits 7.0% above the US$102.78 five-year average, inside the band where the FCF target moves with the deck. The price reaches gross profit through the LEU segment’s 2024–2025 average SWU revenue of US$272.75 m, with half of each move kept, because Centrus buys most of what it sells from Orano and TENEX on terms it does not disclose. The second is the margin: the LEU segment earned US$111.5 m of gross profit in 2025 and US$93.9 m in 2024, and their average is the mid-cycle base, run to 2040, the end of the US$3.7 bn backlog. The third is the rate: Piketon is the only plant, so the processor convention’s single-site 10% applies, with no jurisdiction premium.

The other two segments are smaller. Technical Solutions earns on the DOE HALEU Operation Contract: its 2024–2025 average gross profit of US$11.8 m, with the US$9.9 m of 2025 depreciation added back and the US$4.1 m of 2024 sustaining capital taken off, runs on an eight-year horizon, to 2034, where the segment’s US$0.8 bn backlog ends. The Piketon expansion is carried at cost: the US$113.0 m increase in PP&E in the first half (capital expenditure US$94.8 m) — no capital estimate, schedule or capacity has been filed, so it cannot be built into a cash flow.

Uranium matters most after SWU. Uranium sales are 16.7% of enterprise NAV — a co-product, held at US$90/lb in every SWU column; a US$15/lb move takes NAV per share to US$50.49 or US$54.14. The SWU pass-through is the first of twelve gaps the assumptions box bounds (Table 17, field 11): at 0.25 or 0.75 NAV per share is US$51.00 or US$53.62. Corporate costs are the larger one: at the H1 2026 run-rate of US$131.8 m a year, against US$67.3 m in 2025, NAV per share falls to US$33.57. The load-bearing inputs are below; the build is in the member section.

From enterprise to equity, the bridge adds value rather than taking it. The LEU segment (US$650.1 m), Technical Solutions (US$80.7 m) and the Piketon expansion at its US$113.0 m cost sum to an enterprise NAV of US$843.8 m at the base deck. Against it sit US$1,207.5 m of convertible notes at face and US$391.7 m for corporate costs — US$67.3 m a year after tax over fourteen years — offset by US$1,796.8 m of cash net of benefit obligations and US$6.4 m of working capital. That leaves US$1,047.9 m of equity, or US$52.31 per diluted share — 20.030 m shares: the basic count, awards and the 2.25% notes’ in-the-money shares — and the price sits 88.2% above it. The rate moves the answer less than the deck: at the base deck NAV per share is US$54.16 at 8% and US$50.74 at 12%.

Table 6. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on (full register: Table 20)

Source: Centrus SEC filings — FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q, pages as cited; EIA Uranium Marketing Annual Report 2025, Table 13; Cameco uranium price month-ends.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 18. Near-term catalysts

Source: Centrus SEC filings — FY2025 10-K (expansion p.11, IDIQs p.4), Q2 2026 10-Q (supply p.24), Q1 2026 10-Q (Oklo p.34); the Westerman release of 19 October 2026.

Centrus gives no guidance, so only the 2027 waiver deadline has a filed date; the expansion filing would move the value axis most.

9. Rating & verdict

Figure 10. Scorecard by dimension, 26 October 2026

Figure data: Table 19. Each spoke prints its stars and weight; the dashed ring is the weighted composite, 3.30/5.

Table 19. Scorecard rationale — Centrus Energy, 26 October 2026

Source: as cited per row — Centrus SEC filings and the peer filings of §2.6. Every score is relative to the peer set declared in §2.6.

The arithmetic: Σ(weight × stars) = 0.45 + 0.45 + 0.60 + 0.75 + 0.30 + 0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.1875 + 0.125 = 3.30/5 → ★★★½, Solid. Processor weights on the producer pattern: asset quality, cost, life, balance sheet and capital allocation at 15% each, the other four at 6.25%.

The two-axis verdict, as of 26 October 2026: ★★★½ Solid, Overvalued (wide band) → “Full”. The blended fair value of US$55.12 against the US$98.44 share price is an implied −44.0%, and the market-implied deck of US$200/SWU compares with EIA prints of US$97.66–108.70 in 2021–2025. The 8.7% FCF-yield target carries Dim 5 at +0.04, Dim 3 at +0.02, Dims 1, 2 and 8 at 0.00 and Dim 6 at −0.02 (Table 12).

The bull case is policy: the United States is rebuilding domestic enrichment, Centrus holds the DOE’s HALEU and LEU production awards and the cash to build, and a filed expansion at sound returns would add value the model holds at its US$113.0 m cost. The bear case is the book: the LEU segment resells enrichment it buys, much of it Russian, on undisclosed terms, and even at US$140/SWU the blend reaches US$73.76. What tips it is the expansion’s capital, schedule and contracted offtake, and supply secured beyond 2027 — the first moves the value axis, the second the quality axis. To compare Centrus with the listed uranium names, screen the sector on Metal Pilot’s uranium mining stock screener.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. Centrus SEC filings: the FY2025 10-K (filed 11 February 2026) and the FY2022–FY2024 10-Ks; the 2026 proxy statement (DEF 14A, 24 April 2026); the Q1–Q3 2023, Q1–Q3 2024, Q1–Q3 2025 and Q1–Q2 2026 10-Qs (balance sheet at 30 June 2026); results releases and 8-Ks from May 2025 to the Westerman release of 19 October 2026. Peers: Cameco 2025 annual MD&A and Q2 2026 interim statements; Energy Fuels FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q. Market: the EIA Uranium Marketing Annual Report 2025, Table 13; Cameco’s uranium price page (month-ends, October 2025 – September 2026); Yahoo Finance daily closes for LEU to 26 October 2026.

Methodology. Data as of 26 October 2026, per share on 20.030 m shares (basic at 30 June 2026, awards and the 2.25% notes’ in-the-money shares), market data at the 26 October 2026 NYSE close (US$98.44). Deck: base SWU US$110/SWU on the US$80 · 95 · 110 · 125 · 140/SWU grid, every grid price a scenario, uranium held at US$90/lb, 10% real; the read is Overvalued (wide band) — NAV/share US$52.31, blend US$55.12, implied −44.0%, market-implied deck US$200/SWU. Segment margins are the FY2024–FY2025 averages; the scorecard uses processor weights on the producer pattern against the §2.6 peer set. Cadence: refreshed on each annual report and on material events — the Q3 2026 10-Q, an expansion capital estimate or a change to Russian supply would trigger a re-run.

Re-run log. 27 October 2026 — first publication, the model run with the Section 9 stars (driver line × 1.04). 27 October 2026, gate fixes — the share count rebuilt from the filed conversion terms (20.030 m, from the Q2 weighted 21.891 m) and the Technical Solutions term filed to 2034: NAV/share up 9.3% to US$52.31, blend US$55.12, implied −44.0%; the read is unchanged, Overvalued (wide band).

Omitted figures. The asset map (components only); the backlog by delivery period (not filed — Figure 5 shows the two filed totals); SWU volumes and unit cost (not disclosed). Data gaps: related-party detail; the Q3 2026 10-Q (shares after the Westerman consideration and Q3 at-the-market sales); the Westerman price; the expansion’s capital, schedule and capacity (FY2025 10-K, Q1–Q2 2026 10-Qs, 2025–2026 releases checked); subscriber SWU and uranium benchmarks (UxC, TradeTech); analyst consensus (no archived capture); BWX Technologies’ and ASP Isotopes’ consolidated figures. The model’s deck sensitivity, P/NAV map, cross-checks and uranium deck sensitivity are in its out file, claude/valuation-models/centrus-energy-leu.out.md.

Table 20. Source register — the filed figures behind the valuation (load-bearing inputs: Table 6)

Source: the filings and market series named in each row; Table 6 in Section 7 lists the load-bearing subset. Centrus SEC filings; EIA Uranium Marketing Annual Report 2025.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 26 October 2026: the price, the multiples, the NAV and the two-axis verdict move with the market and the SWU price. Centrus reports no reserves; the valuation is a model on stated assumptions, several of them bounded inputs where the filings are silent. The rating and read are analytical judgments, not a recommendation to buy or sell. This report was prepared with AI assistance from primary filings — verify before relying on any figure.