Lundin Mining (LUN) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.6]

Analysis as of 23 August 2026. A point-in-time snapshot, refreshed on each quarterly and annual report. Price deck: base copper US$6.00/lb — the representative trailing average on the fixed US$4–8 grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$4.00/lb to deep bull US$8.00/lb), gold held at US$4,500/oz, and the market-implied deck as a 0% cross-check — no spot price. Market data: TSX close of C$38.07 on 21 August 2026; fundamentals from the FY2025 annual filings and the Q2 2026 interim report. NAV/share C$30.29; blended fair value C$31.24, implied −17.9%; the share price implies copper at US$6.82/lb. Financial figures in US dollars, per-share values in C$. Rating: ★★★½ (3.6/5) Solid / Modestly overvalued (wide band). For information only, prepared with AI assistance — see the disclaimer at the end.

Lundin Mining has sold its European zinc and US nickel mines to become a South American copper producer with a net-cash balance sheet and half of Vicuña, a district holding 14,338 kt of measured and indicated copper. The thesis in one line: a solid, mid-cost copper business whose share price already assumes copper above its cycle high. Why now: a Vicuña investment decision is targeted as early as year-end 2026, with copper at its US$6.70/lb cycle high of 5 August 2026. To screen Lundin against every copper producer on cost, reserves and reserve life, use Metal Pilot.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Lundin Mining Corporation (TSX: LUN; Nasdaq Stockholm: LUMI) is a copper producer — archetype producer, sector copper, with gold, molybdenum and silver by-products — headquartered in Vancouver. It runs three open-pit copper mines, Candelaria (80%) and Caserones (75%) in Chile and Chapada (100%) in Brazil, and holds 50% of the Vicuña district on the Argentina–Chile border with BHP. (kt = thousand tonnes; P&P = proven and probable reserves; M&I = measured and indicated resources; C1 = cash cost net of by-product credits.)

Figure 1. Lundin Mining in numbers

Figure data: Table 1; production and costs from the FY2025 MD&A, balance sheet from the Q2 2026 interim statements; share price from Yahoo Finance, TSX close 21 August 2026; NAV, fair value and read from Section 7, rating from Section 9.

Table 1. Lundin Mining in numbers

Source: Lundin Mining FY2025 MD&A, AIF and Q2 2026 interim report; share price Yahoo Finance, TSX close 21 August 2026; US$ at C$1.3781. FY2025 production includes Eagle (8.9 kt, sold); EBITDA covers all operations. Listing: Public (TSX: LUN).

Thesis in brief. Bull: three mines with 6,347 kt of P&P copper and lives to 2039–2051, net cash with an undrawn US$2,250.0 million revolver, and a Vicuña PEA worth US$9.5 billion after tax for the whole district at only US$4.60/lb copper. Bear: output is flat — 310–335 kt guided for 2026 — the C1 cost is mid-pack, and at C$38.07 the market already discounts copper at US$6.82/lb. What tips it: copper holding above US$6.36/lb, where the read turns Fairly valued, and a Vicuña decision that lets the market re-strike the project at today’s copper.

How to read this analysis: the statcards and Section 9 carry the verdict; Sections 2–6 the evidence; Section 7 the valuation, every figure reproducible from its tables.

2. Assets & operations

For copper’s market backdrop see the Copper — A Complete Market Guide; this section covers the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Table 2. Asset base, sorted by NAV

Source: FY2025 AIF reserves (NI 43-101, 31 December 2025; Chapada 31 December 2024; Vicuña resources 31 October 2025); FY2025 MD&A production; Q2 2026 MD&A guidance and the Caserones 75% interest from 7 April 2026.

Chile carries the group: Caserones earned 43% and Candelaria 39% of revenue in the first half of 2026, Chapada 18%. No mine exceeds 43%, but 82% of revenue comes from one country, and Vicuña produces nothing yet.

2.2 Revenue split

Figure 2. Revenue by commodity, H1 2026

Figure data: Q2 2026 MD&A, revenue by metal, p.19.

Figure 3. Revenue by asset, H1 2026

Figure data: Q2 2026 MD&A, revenue by mine, p.19. The FY2025 split is not filed as a table; the half-year is used.

2.3 Candelaria

Candelaria (with Ojos del Salado) in Chile is 80% Lundin and 20% Sumitomo Metal Mining and Sumitomo Corporation. It produced 145.5 kt of copper and 80.5 koz of gold in 2025 at a C1 of US$1.92/lb; 2026 guidance is 135–145 kt and 77–87 koz at US$2.05–2.25/lb, with US$215 million of sustaining capital. P&P reserves are 592.7 Mt at 0.46% Cu for 2,736 kt of copper and 2,040 koz of gold (NI 43-101, 31 December 2025); the forecast mine life runs to 2051, the 2040 environmental approval of 8 September 2023 covering operations to 2040. Franco-Nevada’s stream takes 68% of payable gold and silver at about US$437/oz of gold, falling to 40% after 720,000 oz of gold and 12 Moz of silver; 654,000 oz had been delivered by end-2025. The asset risk is permitting beyond 2040.

2.4 Caserones

Caserones in Chile rose from 70% to 75% on 7 April 2026, when Lundin bought JX’s 5% and 30.9% of Los Helados for US$35.0 million. It produced 132.9 kt of copper in 2025 at a C1 of US$2.17/lb; reserves are 797.1 Mt at 0.30% Cu for 2,377 kt of copper and 63 kt of molybdenum. 2026 guidance is 130–140 kt at US$2.05–2.25/lb with US$235 million of sustaining capital; a 13-day winter-storm suspension puts output in the lower half. Permits cover the plan to 2039, and Caserones carries about US$3.9 billion of tax losses. No stream is filed. The asset risk is the life beyond 2039.

2.5 Chapada

Chapada in Brazil is wholly owned. It produced 44.0 kt of copper and 61.3 koz of gold in 2025 at a C1 of US$0.75/lb; 2026 guidance is 45–50 kt and 57–62 koz at US$0.75–0.95/lb (revised 17 June 2026), with US$100 million of sustaining capital. Reserves are 549.1 Mt at 0.22% Cu for 1,233 kt of copper and 2,186 koz of gold (31 December 2024); the plan runs the pit and stockpiles to 2050 at up to 25 Mtpa. Two copper streams take a slice: Royal Gold’s IRC stream (the lesser of 3.9 Mlbs or 4.2% of payable copper at 30% of market, stepping to 3.0% after 39 Mlbs and 1.5% after 50 Mlbs; 37.4 Mlbs delivered) and Altius’s (3.7% at 30% of market, 1.5% after 75 Mlbs; 36.8 Mlbs delivered). The asset risk is its low 0.22% grade.

2.6 Vicuña

Vicuña combines Josemaria and Filo del Sol in a 50:50 joint venture with BHP. Its resources are 4,181 Mt of M&I at 0.34% Cu — 14,338 kt of copper, 36.1 Moz of gold and 729 Moz of silver — plus 32,255 kt of inferred copper (100%, 31 October 2025). The integrated PEA (published 16 February 2026) gives an after-tax NPV8% of US$9.5 billion and a 14.8% IRR at US$4.60/lb copper, US$3,300/oz gold and US$40/oz silver, for Stage 1 capital of US$7.1 billion and 22.3 Mt of copper over 70-plus years. Lundin’s 2026 share of spending is US$395 million. The provincial royalty is capped at 3% of gross revenue, with a 1.5% infrastructure trust. Outstanding: the Stage 1 investment decision, targeted as early as year-end 2026; the permits are not itemised in the source set. The asset risk is US$7.1 billion of capital in Argentina.

2.7 Production, reserves & costs

Group output was 331.2 kt of copper and 141.9 koz of gold in 2025, inside its 319–337 kt guidance, at a C1 of US$1.87/lb; 2026 guidance is 310–335 kt at US$1.90–2.10/lb. P&P reserves total 6,347 kt of copper (3,410 kt proven, 2,937 kt probable) and 4,226 koz of gold — about 20 years at the 2026 rate — with 7,687 kt of M&I copper beyond them.

Figure 4. Copper production by mine, 2025 and the 2026 plan

Figure data: FY2025 MD&A production by mine; Q2 2026 MD&A guidance (the 2026 plan used in Section 7).

2.8 Peer positioning

The peer set for every star in Section 9 is five listed copper producers, none in a pending deal; quality metrics only.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics, 2025

Source: SCCO and FCX FY2025 10-Ks; Antofagasta 2025 annual report; First Quantum FY2025 MD&A (excluding Cobre Panamá); Lundin FY2025 MD&A. Cost bases differ by company; n/d where the filing in the source set does not carry the figure.

Lundin is the smallest producer with a filed output in the set, and its cost sits between Freeport’s and First Quantum’s — mid-pack, not first-quartile. Antofagasta, also Chile-weighted, earns a 60% EBITDA margin at a US$1.19/lb net cash cost; Lundin’s edge over it is the net-cash balance sheet and Vicuña, not cost.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 4. Five-year financial summary (US$ m unless stated, years ended 31 December)

Source: FY2025, FY2024 and FY2023 MD&A and financial statements. 2023–2025 revenue and margin are continuing operations; 2021–2022 as reported with the since-sold European and US mines (a basis break, so the 2023 change is not meaningful); operating cash flow, capex and free cash flow cover all operations (2023–2025 capex = operating cash flow less free cash flow, derived). 2025 accrual capex was US$690.3 million: sustaining US$499.1 million, growth US$191.2 million. Cash margin = revenue less production costs (derived).

Figure 5. Adjusted EBITDA by fiscal year, 2021–2025

Figure data: FY2025 and FY2023 MD&A, adjusted EBITDA, all operations (2021–2022 as reported).

Earnings and cash. EBITDA hit a record in 2025 as the cash margin widened to 51.9%. Earnings swing harder than cash: a 2024 net loss came with US$1,518.9 million of operating cash flow, while in 2025 total net earnings of US$1,653.5 million ran ahead of US$1,342.6 million of operating cash flow; free cash flow recovered from US$13.4 million in 2023 to US$594.2 million in 2025 as capex fell from US$1,003.2 million to US$748.4 million. Read the statements as the Commodity Financials — A Metrics Guide sets out.

Cost deck. 2026 guidance assumes gold at US$4,000/oz, silver at US$70/oz, US$1 = CLP 900 and BRL 5.00; sustaining capital US$550 million, expansionary US$85 million, exploration US$53 million. Income tax paid was US$396.4 million in 2025; tax pools are not disclosed, though Caserones carries about US$3.9 billion of losses.

Net debt and liquidity. Net cash was US$79.0 million at 30 June 2026 (cash US$265.8 million, debt US$186.8 million); with US$201.8 million of leases, net debt is US$122.8 million. At US$4.00/lb copper forward EBITDA would fall by about US$1.41 billion (derived) and leverage would still be under 0.1×. The US$2,250.0 million revolver is undrawn to February 2031; the Candelaria loan (US$50.0 million) matures in November 2026 and Chapada’s export loans (US$136.8 million) are current. Covenants are customary and met. Reclamation provisions total US$249.7 million.

Hedge book. Copper is unhedged. Gold collars cover 22 koz at US$2,500/3,455/oz for the rest of 2026; currency collars cover US$171 million against the peso (904/1,060) and US$57 million against the real (5.07/6.04).

Capital returns. The dividend was cut to C$0.1725 in 2025 and is C$0.0275 a quarter; buybacks took 2,202,900 shares for about US$56.2 million in Q2 2026. Shares outstanding were 851,297,591 on 5 August 2026.

4. Management, strategy & structure

4.1 Management & governance

Jack Lundin has been President and CEO since 4 December 2023, previously CEO of Bluestone Resources; Teitur Poulsen is CFO. Adam I. Lundin chairs the board (director since 12 May 2022); he is also President, CEO and Chair of LunR Royalties and was President and CEO of Josemaria Resources, whose project is now part of Vicuña. The board had eight members, six independent, at 31 December 2025; Michael Steinmann joined on 7 May 2026. Its standing committees are Audit; Corporate Governance and Nominating; and Human Resources/Compensation. Related-party transactions were US$7.3 million in 2025, and directors and officers hold 6,827,303 shares (about 0.8%).

4.2 Strategy

The frame is a copper pure play in the Americas. Lundin sold Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan in April 2025 and its Eagle nickel mine, and buys growth alongside a partner or by stepping up stakes: Filo with BHP, then 5% more of Caserones from JX. The dated targets are the 2026 guidance (310–335 kt of copper at US$1.90–2.10/lb) and a Vicuña Stage 1 investment decision as early as year-end 2026, when the revolver can rise to US$4,500.0 million.

4.3 Ownership & structure

The most material deal is Filo (January 2025): 94,074,959 shares worth US$799.8 million issued, Filo merged with Josemaria into the Vicuña joint venture, held 50:50 with BHP Investments Canada. On completion, Nemesia S.à r.l., the Lundin family trusts’ vehicle, held 169,380,629 shares (19.52%) — the largest holder, not a controlling one. Sumitomo Metal Mining and Sumitomo Corporation own 20% of Candelaria; 25% of Caserones is held by minorities after the April 2026 purchase; the investment in an associate is carried at US$108.3 million. Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold and Altius hold the streams. Shares outstanding: 851,297,591 basic and 856,727,153 fully diluted (gross) at 5 August 2026.

5. ESG & sustainability

Safety improved: total recordable injury frequency was 1.72 in 2025 against a 1.75 target, from 2.47 in 2024 (the Q2 2026 quarterly 0.15 is not stated on the annual basis). Lundin reports tailings against the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management and publishes annual sustainability reports. Closure is provided for at US$249.7 million, settled from 2026 to 2110. Water and community figures are not in the source set, so the dimension scores at the median. The recordable rate met its target in 2025 after missing it in 2024; peer safety rates are not in the source set.

6. Risks

Table 5. Risk register

Source: FY2025 AIF risk factors, FY2025 MD&A sensitivities, Q2 2026 MD&A; NAV effects from Section 7. Likelihood and impact are the author’s assessment.

Figure 6. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 5; each point prints likelihood × impact.

The register ranks copper first because nothing else moves value as much: the scenarios run from C$12.90 at US$4.00/lb to C$48.13 at US$8.00/lb. Vicuña comes second on size, not likelihood — US$7.1 billion of Stage 1 capital for the district, half of it Lundin’s. Chile’s royalty is the likeliest loss: law already, not in the model, and worth about C$2.33 a share. Section 7 prices the copper deck in its scenarios, Vicuña in its stage factor and slip case, and bounds the royalty and the Caserones life in its assumptions box.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 23 August 2026, built in US dollars (Lundin Mining’s reporting currency) with every per-share value converted to Canadian dollars at US$1 = C$1.3781 (CAD=X, 21 August 2026) against the C$38.07 TSX close of 21 August 2026. Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base copper US$6.00/lb, the representative of the trailing averages of COMEX copper futures (3-month US$6.372, 6-month US$6.134 and 12-month US$5.678/lb, to 21 August 2026), with every grid price from US$4.00 to US$8.00/lb run as a scenario; gold held at US$4,500/oz (3-month US$4,251.4, 6-month US$4,523.4, 12-month US$4,381.9/oz) in every column; 8% real after-tax discount rate. Balance sheet 30 June 2026.

Lundin Mining is valued as a copper producer, sum of the parts, following the How to Value Commodity Stocks guide. Candelaria, Caserones and Chapada carry the producing value on their 2026 guidance — each mine’s C1 cash cost plus its own sustaining capital per pound — run to the end of the reserve or the filed life horizon, whichever comes first: Candelaria 20 years, Caserones 13 years to its 2039 permits, Chapada 24 years to 2050. The streams are modelled on their filed terms: Chapada’s two copper streams as deliveries at 30% of market, and the drop in Candelaria’s gold stream from 68% to 40% as a credit from year 3. Vicuña, the 50% joint venture with BHP, is valued on its February 2026 PEA — US$9.5 billion after tax at 8% for 100%, at the study’s own US$4.60/lb copper — rolled forward, with the capital spent since added back, and then weighted at 0.35 inside the 0.20–0.40 band for a study that has not reached a construction decision; that factor is the one place its stage and Argentine risk are charged. Measured and indicated copper beyond the reserves is a conversion row at 0.25. Minorities — 20% of Candelaria, 25% of Caserones — come off in the bridge at their share of those rows.

Enterprise NAV at the base deck is US$22.5 billion: Candelaria US$7.5 billion, Caserones US$5.2 billion, Chapada US$3.1 billion, Vicuña US$1.8 billion after its factor (8% of the total) and the resource row US$4.8 billion (21%). The bridge takes US$3.7 billion off — the minorities’ US$3.6 billion and US$0.5 billion of capitalised corporate G&A, partly offset by working capital, against net debt with leases of only US$123 million — for a NAV/share of C$30.29 at 8%, a P/NAV of 1.26× at the share price. The net asset value carries half the weight; forward EBITDA and an FCF-yield support price carry the rest, each struck on its anchor, the driver line at × (1 + 0.08) from the Section 9 scorecard (Table 12). The forward legs use the 2026 guidance by mine for the next twelve months — 320 kt of copper, the C1 cash cost net of by-product credits, the gold credit re-struck to the deck — because Lundin has not filed 2027 guidance; the free cash flow is taken after each mine’s sustaining capital, corporate G&A and statutory cash tax, and only Lundin’s share of it is counted.

Three choices set the level. The rate is the base-metal 8% with no jurisdiction premium: Chile and Brazil carry every producing mine, and Argentina’s risk is already in Vicuña’s factor. The copper deck sits 34% above its five-year average of US$4.47/lb, so every target multiple is held at its mid-cycle anchor and only the deck moves across the scenarios. And gold is a co-product, not a footnote — the unstreamed gold credit is 19% of enterprise NAV — so it is decked on its own averages and held, never tied to copper by a ratio. Where the source set is thin — Chile’s mining royalty, Caserones’ tax losses and its life past 2039, Vicuña’s price sensitivity — the build leaves the line out or carries the filed figure, and the assumptions box bounds each gap.

Table 6. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on (full source register: Table 20)

Source: the Lundin Mining filings named in each row (full source register: Table 20); copper and gold averages from COMEX futures closes (Yahoo Finance).

7.1 Method selection

Table 7. Valuation method selection

Source: this analysis — method set, anchors and weights per the producer set of the valuation guide, on the filed inputs in Table 6.

7.2 Net asset value

Table 8. Vehicle map

Source: FY2025 AIF asset table and stream terms; Q2 2026 MD&A (Caserones 75% from 7 April 2026).

Table 9. Per-asset NPV build — base case (copper US$6.00/lb, 8% real)

Source: this analysis, on the inputs in Table 6; reserves from the FY2025 AIF, guidance from the Q2 2026 MD&A.

Table 10. Per-asset model — base case (copper US$6.00/lb, 8% real)

Source: this analysis — the model rows behind Table 9.

Table 11. NAV build-up and equity bridge (base case — copper US$6.00/lb, 8% real)

Source: Q2 2026 interim FS (30 June 2026); this analysis.

Figure 7. NAV build-up and equity bridge

Figure 8. NAV/share sensitivity — copper price × discount rate

Notes: (1) every cell is recomputed from the mine schedules, never scaled; the checksum is the US$5.00/lb column at 8%, C$22.38. (2) The rate rows re-discount every mine’s own schedule at 7%, 8% and 10%, the minorities moving with their rows; Vicuña is held at its PEA’s 8% and its 0.35 factor, and the other claims are held.

7.3 Relative valuation

Table 12. Target-multiple driver line (one line, applied to every multiple)

Source: this analysis — the driver terms follow from the Section 9 scorecard; each target is its anchor × (1 + 0.08).

Table 13. Forward EBITDA build — the next twelve months at the base price

Source: Q2 2026 MD&A guidance by mine; this analysis.

Table 14. Relative valuation — implied value per share (base case)

Source: this analysis, Tables 11 and 13.

7.4 Further weighted methods

Table 15. FCF-yield support build — the next twelve months at the base price

Source: Q2 2026 MD&A capital guidance; FY2025 FS depreciation; this analysis.

7.5 Cross-checks

The cross-checks — the market-implied deck, the NAV parity deck, the current EV/EBITDA against Lundin’s own five-year history, the gold deck and the Vicuña factor and slip cases — print with the model’s other working tables (Section 10.1); none carries weight.

7.6 Scenarios & fair value

Table 16. Scenarios & fair value — inputs, value per method and the blend by grid price (C$/share)

Source: this analysis — every column recomputed at its own rate and Vicuña factor; gold held at US$4,500/oz throughout.

Figure 9. Value per share by method and scenario

Conclusion. The blended fair value is C$31.24 per share at the US$6.00/lb base, against C$38.07 — implied −17.9%, a value read of Modestly overvalued (wide band). The range runs from C$12.90 at US$4.00/lb to C$48.13 at US$8.00/lb; a spread that wide is the operating leverage of three copper mines, not the model — each US$1.00/lb moves NAV/share by about C$7.91. The market-implied copper deck is US$6.82/lb — the price at which the blend, multiples held, equals the share price — above every trailing average in the deck and above the cycle high of US$6.70/lb set on 5 August 2026 (the cycle low was US$3.21/lb on 14 July 2022). On the market’s own yardstick the shares trade at 8.9× forward EBITDA, against a median of 5.3× at Lundin’s last five year-ends (3.0× to 9.6×). Rating-flip prices: the read moves up to Fairly valued at copper of US$6.36/lb, 6% above the base, and down to Overvalued at US$5.45/lb, 9% below it. The FCF yield at the share price is 5.4% on the attributable free cash flow of Table 15. The methods sit close at the base — NAV at 1.08× C$32.71, FCF support C$31.75, EV/EBITDA C$28.45 — and Vicuña is not the swing: its 0.20–0.40 band moves NAV/share from C$29.05 to C$30.71, a little more than the gold deck’s ±US$500/oz (C$29.62 to C$30.96).

What the price asks for is plain from the build. At C$38.07 the market is paying for copper at about US$6.82/lb held for the life of three mines, or for something the model leaves out at its base: a Caserones that runs past its 2039 permits (C$31.76 a share if it runs to the end of its reserve), a larger share of the measured and indicated copper turned into mine plans than the 0.25 factor allows, or a Vicuña re-struck at today’s copper rather than the PEA’s US$4.60/lb. None of those is unreasonable, and each is bounded in the assumptions box — but none is in the filings yet. The downside is just as visible: Chile’s mining royalty, not modelled, would take NAV/share to about C$27.96 at a 35% Chilean tax rate, while Caserones’ US$3.9 billion of unused tax losses would add about C$1.05 a share. The fair-value read therefore turns on copper first, the reach of the mine plans second, and Vicuña a distant third.

Table 17. Assumptions box

Source: this analysis.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 18. Near-term catalysts

Source: Q2 2026 MD&A and FY2025 financial statements; timing is company guidance or filed thresholds, not a promise.

The decision on Vicuña is the catalyst that matters; the stream step-downs are small, contracted gains. The Caserones recovery and the loan repayment are near-certain and small; the Chapada step is about 1.6 Mlbs of deliveries away. As a producer, Lundin carries no takeover-optionality read.

9. Rating & verdict

Lundin is scored on nine dimensions against the Section 2.8 peers (Southern Copper, Freeport-McMoRan, Antofagasta, First Quantum, Hudbay). As a producer, asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation carry 15% each and the other four 6.25%; none is not applicable.

Table 19. Scorecard rationale

Source: each row’s evidence as cited, in the Lundin Mining filings and the peers’ FY2025 filings; rows by weight, dimension number within a weight.

Weighted average: 0.15 × (3 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 3) + 0.0625 × (4 + 3 + 4 + 3) = 2.70 + 0.875 = 3.58/5 (3.6) → ★★★½, Solid.

The two-axis verdict. As of 23 August 2026, quality ★★★½ (Solid) meets a value read of Modestly overvalued (wide band): a blended fair value of C$31.24 against C$38.07, implied −17.9%, on NAV/share of C$30.29 — Full, a sound copper producer priced above its mines at the base deck. The share price implies copper at US$6.82/lb with the multiples held, against a base of US$6.00/lb; the balance sheet (Dim 5), reserves (Dim 3) and jurisdiction (Dim 8) lifted every target multiple by 8%.

The bull case is copper staying above US$6.36/lb, where the read turns Fairly valued, and Vicuña advancing to a decision that re-strikes its US$4.60/lb PEA. The bear case is copper easing to US$5.45/lb, where it turns Overvalued, or Chile’s royalty biting. What tips it is copper, not Vicuña: the stage factor moves NAV/share by less than C$2. To compare Lundin with every copper producer on these dimensions, screen the sector on Metal Pilot.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. Lundin Mining’s FY2025 AIF, MD&A and financial statements, FY2024 and FY2023 MD&A and statements, the Q2 2026 MD&A, interim statements and presentation, and the FY2025 and FY2024 sustainability reports. Peers. Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan FY2025 10-Ks, Antofagasta’s 2025 annual report, First Quantum’s FY2025 MD&A. Market. Yahoo Finance for the C$38.07 TSX close of 21 August 2026, CAD=X (US$1 = C$1.3781) and COMEX copper and gold closes.

Methodology. As of 23 August 2026; market data at 21 August 2026; reserves at 31 December 2025, balance sheet at 30 June 2026. Base deck copper US$6.00/lb on the fixed US$4–8 grid, every grid price run as a scenario, gold held at US$4,500/oz; 8% real discount rate. Weights NAV 50%, EV/EBITDA 30%, FCF yield 20%; target multiples on their anchors × 1.08 from the scorecard. Peers are scored on their FY2025 filings. Refreshed on each quarterly and annual report.

Re-run log. 12 October 2026: rebuilt on the US$6.00/lb deck and the scorecard’s driver line; blended fair value C$32.08, implied −15.7%, read moved to Modestly overvalued (wide band); NAV/share C$30.98; market-implied copper US$6.72/lb. 12 October 2026, gate fixes: corporate G&A of US$63.9 million taken off forward EBITDA and free cash flow and capitalised once in the bridge; Vicuña rolled from its 16 February 2026 PEA; income taxes payable split from working capital — NAV/share C$30.29 (from C$30.98), blended fair value C$31.24 (from C$32.08), implied −17.9%, read unchanged at Modestly overvalued (wide band); market-implied copper US$6.82/lb.

Figures and gaps. The asset map is not built; the revenue split uses H1 2026, since FY2025 is not filed as a table; Figure 4 shows 2025 and the 2026 plan only. Not in the source set: the Vicuña PEA technical report (30 March 2026), the 17 June 2026 Capital Markets Day release, the FY2021–FY2022 annual filings, Hudbay’s FY2025 MD&A and an archived analyst consensus. The model’s further working tables (deck sensitivity, P/NAV map, cross-checks) are in claude/valuation-models/lundin-mining-lun.out.md.

Provenance: Lundin Mining Corporation — Annual Report and Annual Information Form — 2025.

Table 20. Source register — the filed figures behind the valuation (load-bearing inputs: Table 6)

Source: the filings named in each row, in this analysis’s source set (Lundin Mining investors).

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 23 August 2026: prices, multiples and the value read move. Reserves, resources and guidance are estimates on the bases stated; the valuation is an author-built model, not company figures, and the Quality × Value verdict is an analytical read, never an instruction. Prepared with AI assistance from primary filings; verify figures against the originals. The author holds no position in Lundin Mining or any company named here.