First Quantum (FM) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.0]

Analysis as of 23 August 2026. Price deck: base copper US$6.00/lb — the representative of the 3-, 6- and 12-month trailing averages (US$6.14, US$5.98 and US$5.48/lb) on the fixed US$4.00–8.00 grid — with every grid price (US$4.00, 5.00, 6.00, 7.00 and 8.00/lb) run as a scenario, from deep bear US$4.00 to deep bull US$8.00/lb; gold and nickel are by-products, and no analyst consensus or spot price is weighted. Market data: TSX close on 21 August 2026, C$47.51 a share, converted at C$1.00 = US$0.7267 (Bank of Canada, 21 August 2026); company figures in US dollars, per-share values in Canadian dollars. Fair value C$28.16 a share against a NAV/share of C$31.72 — implied −40.7%; the market-implied copper deck is US$7.38/lb. Refreshed on each quarterly report and on material events. Rating: ★★★ Average / Overvalued (wide band).

First Quantum Minerals is a Zambia-anchored copper producer whose largest mine, Cobre Panamá, has sat in preservation and safe management since Panama’s Supreme Court struck down its contract in 2023. The thesis in one line: the copper in the ground is world-class — 25.82 Mt of reserves — but at C$47.51 the shares already price a full Panama restart and a copper deck above every trailing average, on top of US$5.4 billion of net debt. Why now: the partial restart is guided to 30–40 kt of copper in 2026, and the terms of a full restart are the next binary event. To screen First Quantum against every copper peer on cost, reserves and reserve life, go to Metal Pilot .

1. Snapshot & thesis

Figure 1. First Quantum in numbers

Figure data: revenue, EBITDA, production, reserves and net debt per the First Quantum FY2025 MD&A, financial statements and AIF ; share price per stockanalysis.com , TSX close 21 August 2026, on 834,206,136 shares at C$1.00 = US$0.7267 (Bank of Canada, 21 August 2026); enterprise value adds net debt at 30 June 2026 (US$5,399 m). NAV, fair value and read per Section 7, rating per Section 9.

First Quantum Minerals Ltd (TSX: FM), headquartered in Vancouver, is a producer (mining) in the copper sector, with gold and nickel as by-products. Its copper comes from two Zambian mines — Kansanshi (80%) and Sentinel (100%) — with smaller output from Guelb Moghrein (Mauritania), and nickel from Enterprise (Zambia). Cobre Panamá (82.042%; 91.0% look-through via KPMC) is in preservation and safe management with a partial restart; Taca Taca (Argentina) and La Granja (Peru, 55%) are the development and resource assets. Jiangxi Copper holds 18.48% of the shares. (kt = thousand tonnes; Mt = million tonnes; C1 = direct cash cost; AISC = all-in sustaining cost; P&P = proven and probable reserves; the fiscal year ends 31 December.)

Table 1. First Quantum in numbers

Source: First Quantum FY2025 MD&A and financial statements, Q2 2026 MD&A and interim financial statements (guidance, cash, undrawn facilities, shares); market data per stockanalysis.com , TSX close 21 August 2026. Net debt at 30 June 2026 = total debt US$6,178 m less cash US$779 m. Listed: Public (TSX: FM).

Thesis in brief. Bull: 25.82 Mt of copper reserves, Kansanshi’s S3 expansion in commercial production since 1 December 2025 with guidance rising to 230–260 kt by 2028, and a Cobre Panamá restart that has begun — at a US$7.00/lb deck the blend reaches C$42.69. Bear: net debt of US$5,192 m at 3.1× FY2025 EBITDA, no agreed terms for a full Panama restart, and AISC guided at US$3.50–3.80/lb — at US$5.00/lb the blend falls to C$12.77. What tips it is Panama before copper: the share price already implies a US$7.38/lb deck. The full rating is in Section 9.

How to read this analysis: for the verdict, the statcards and Section 9 are enough; for the evidence, read Section 2 (the assets) through Section 7 (the valuation).

2. Assets & operations

For the copper market itself — supply, demand and the cost curve — see the Copper — A Complete Market Guide ; this section covers the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Table 2. Asset base, sorted by value in the Section 7 build

Source: First Quantum Q2 2026 MD&A p.11 (2026 production and cost guidance), p.9 (La Granja), p.29 (Taca Taca); FY2025 AIF (group reserves 25.82 Mt, the per-asset split and the Kansanshi 80% / ZCCM 20% structure); Q2 2026 interim financial statements note 17 (KPMC 17.958% of Cobre Panamá). Life = reserve contained copper ÷ the guided or planned rate (derived). Value order per Table 11.

Production and reserves sit in different places. Zambia — Kansanshi and Sentinel — supplies about 90% of the 2026 copper guidance at its midpoints, while Cobre Panamá and Taca Taca hold about 69% of reserves and produce almost nothing yet. First Quantum is today a Zambian copper producer with a large Panamanian restart and an Argentine project attached.

2.2 Output and reserves by asset

Segment revenue by asset and by commodity is not in the source set for this edition (Section 10.1), so the two splits are drawn on copper output and copper reserves.

Figure 2. 2026 copper guidance by asset (midpoints, 440 kt)

Figure data: First Quantum Q2 2026 MD&A p.11, copper production guidance 2026; midpoints and shares derived.

Figure 3. Copper reserves by asset (P&P, 25.82 Mt)

Figure data: FY2025 AIF via first-quantum.com , group P&P 25.82 Mt at 31 December 2025; the per-asset split is the AIF’s rounded figures, and “other” is the remainder.

2.3 Kansanshi

Kansanshi, in Zambia’s North-Western Province, is held through Kansanshi Mining PLC — 80% First Quantum, 20% a ZCCM subsidiary. The S3 expansion was declared in commercial production on 1 December 2025, and guidance climbs from 175–205 kt of copper in 2026 to 210–240 kt in 2027 and 230–260 kt in 2028, with 110–120 koz of gold this year. The 2024 NI 43-101 technical report puts the post-tax NPV at a 10% discount at US$2.7 billion (US$7.3 billion undiscounted, IRR 50%). Kansanshi’s gold is encumbered: Royal Gold paid US$1.0 billion upfront for a stream, carried as US$954 m of deferred revenue at 30 June 2026; its delivery terms are not in the source set. Reserves are about 5.2 Mt of copper; the mine-level cost is not split from the group guidance. The asset risk is Zambian fiscal policy.

2.4 Sentinel

Sentinel, 100% owned through Kalumbila Minerals, is the larger producer this year at 190–220 kt of guided copper and carries no stream. Its about 2.3 Mt of reserves give the shortest life in the portfolio, about 11 years at the guided rate, so its value is front-loaded. The asset risk is Zambia’s power supply and a cost base inside the group’s US$3.50–3.80/lb AISC.

2.5 Cobre Panamá

Cobre Panamá is owned by Minera Panamá S.A. — First Quantum 82.042%, KPMC 17.958%; KPMC is itself a 50:50 joint venture of First Quantum and KOMIR, so First Quantum’s look-through interest is 91.0%, and Cobre Panamá owes KPMC a US$1,212 m shareholder loan (30 June 2026) — and its precious metals are streamed to Franco-Nevada (US$1,569 m of deferred revenue at 30 June 2026). Panama’s Supreme Court declared the mining contract unconstitutional in November 2023 and the mine has since been in preservation and safe management. The 2026 partial restart processes stockpiled ore, guided at 30–40 kt of copper and 10–15 koz of gold. At full rate it produced about 350 kt a year on about 10.2 Mt of reserves. In hand: approval to process the stockpiles. Outstanding: a legal framework for full operations, whose terms — and First Quantum’s resulting stake — are unresolved. Restart capital and a full-rate date are not filed; Section 7 assumes US$425 m, half rate in 2027 and full rate from 2028, and weights the row at 0.50.

2.6 Taca Taca

Taca Taca, in Salta province, Argentina, is First Quantum’s largest undeveloped project, with about 7.7 Mt of copper reserves. The technical report filed on 19 February 2026 plans 291 kt a year over the first ten years, peaking at 323 kt, across a 35-year life. Construction capital is not in the source set and no build decision is scheduled; the project competes with deleveraging for cash. The asset risk is funding.

2.7 La Granja

La Granja, in Cajamarca, Peru, is 55% First Quantum and operated by it, with Rio Tinto holding the balance. The technical report of 11 May 2026 states measured and indicated resources of 4.831 billion tonnes at 0.48% copper — 23.0 Mt contained — with no reserve declared. Section 7 carries it as a resource-conversion row. The asset risk is permitting in Cajamarca.

2.8 Enterprise and other operations

Enterprise in Zambia is guided to 30–40 kt of nickel in 2026 at a nickel C1 of US$3.25–4.25/lb and AISC of US$4.25–5.25/lb. Guelb Moghrein (Mauritania) adds 30–40 koz of gold, and the other sites about 10 kt of copper; the sales of Çayeli (Türkiye) and the Cobre Las Cruces project (Spain) completed in Q2 2026, for a US$271 m gain.

2.9 Production, reserves & costs

Group copper fell to 395,772 t in FY2025 from 431,004 t in FY2024, with Cobre Panamá idle in both years, at a C1 of US$2.02/lb excluding Cobre Panamá. The 2026 guidance of 405–475 kt is the first increase since the shutdown, driven by S3 and the stockpile restart, at a C1 of US$2.15–2.40/lb and AISC of US$3.50–3.80/lb. Group P&P reserves are 25.82 Mt of copper at 31 December 2025 under NI 43-101.

Figure 4. Group copper production, FY2024 to 2026 guidance (kt)

Figure data: First Quantum FY2025 MD&A p.7 (FY2025 395,772 t; FY2024 431,004 t); Q2 2026 MD&A p.11 (2026 guidance 405–475 kt, midpoint 440 kt). FY2021–FY2023 production is not in the source set.

2.10 Peer positioning

The peer set for every star in Section 9 is five listed copper producers, none in a pending deal; Teck is excluded because of its pending merger with Anglo American.

Table 3. Peer positioning — quality metrics

Source: First Quantum per the FY2025 MD&A and AIF; peers per their FY2025 filings — Southern Copper 10-K (copper production; reserves 108,955 Mlb contained at 31 Dec 2025 ÷ 2025 output), Freeport-McMoRan 10-K (net debt, 2026 sales guidance), Antofagasta annual report 2025 (production, net debt), Ivanhoe Mines AIF and Lundin Mining AIF (production); reserve life on P&P is n/d where the filing’s reserve table was not read back. Screen the full copper set at Metal Pilot .

First Quantum is the most leveraged name in the set and the one with the most idle reserve; on scale it sits with Lundin and Ivanhoe, well below Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Table 4. Five-year financial summary (US$ m unless stated, years ended 31 December)

Source: First Quantum audited financial statements FY2022–FY2025 (income statement: sales revenues, net earnings attributable to shareholders, diluted EPS; cash flow: operating cash flow, purchase and deposits on property, plant and equipment, dividends paid); FY2022–FY2025 MD&A (EBITDA, net debt; FY2021 from the FY2022 MD&A p.8). YoY, cash margin, FCF and net debt/EBITDA derived. Diluted shares are each year’s weighted average from the financial statements. Diluted shares were 834.2 m in Q2 2026.

Figure 5. EBITDA by fiscal year, FY2022–FY2025 (US$ m)

Figure data: Table 4.

EBITDA halved between FY2022 and FY2024 as Cobre Panamá went idle, and recovered 12% in FY2025 on Zambian output and copper prices. Operating cash flow has run well ahead of net income — US$2,082 m against a US$28 m loss in FY2025 — because depreciation, the Panama carrying costs and interest absorb the operating profit; FY2023’s US$954 m loss carries the Panama write-downs. For how these lines are read, see Commodity Financials — A Metrics Guide .

Cost deck. 2026 guidance is a copper C1 of US$2.15–2.40/lb and AISC of US$3.50–3.80/lb, against a FY2025 C1 of US$2.02/lb; capital spending is guided at US$1,075–1,250 m (project US$410–460 m, sustaining US$435–510 m, capitalised stripping US$230–280 m), interest at US$500–525 m and an adjusted effective tax rate of 35%. Price-linked cost lines and the tax-pool horizon are not disclosed in the source set.

Net debt and liquidity. At 30 June 2026 total debt was US$6,178 m and cash US$779 m — net debt US$5,399 m, with leases of only US$18 m. Liquidity was US$2,029 m including US$1,250 m of undrawn committed facilities. Principal falls due US$242 m within a year, US$1,062 m in one to three years, US$1,300 m in three to five and US$3,500 m beyond. On the guided next twelve months’ volumes, net debt is about 2.6× EBITDA at US$5.00/lb copper and 5.0× at US$4.00/lb — against a net leverage covenant of 4.50× through December 2026, stepping down to 3.50× by Q3 2027 (FY2025 AIF). The restoration provision is US$637 m (US$1,541 m undiscounted at the 2025 year-end). Two streams (US$2,523 m of deferred revenue) and US$592 m of copper prepayments sit outside net debt.

Hedge book. At 31 December 2025 the company held zero-cost collars on 98,475 t of copper at US$4.13–4.62/lb and 45,768 oz of gold, all maturing by June 2026 (FY2025 FS p.50–51); they cost US$164 m of realised losses in Q2 2026, and at 30 June 2026 no commodity contract is designated as a hedge. 87,588 t of copper was provisionally priced at US$5.90/lb at 30 June 2026.

Capital returns. Dividends of US$93 m (FY2023) stopped in 2024; there is no buyback. Shares outstanding were 834,206,136 at 30 June 2026.

4. Management, strategy & structure

4.1 Management & governance

Chief Executive Officer Tristan Pascall joined First Quantum in 2007 and ran Cobre Panamá as its general manager before the top job. Kevin McArthur, former chief executive of Goldcorp and Tahoe Resources, chairs the board. Ryan MacWilliam is Chief Financial Officer; the Audit Committee is four independent directors, chaired by a financial expert (FY2025 AIF). The board has ten directors, eight designated independent including the Chair — one of them Jiangxi Copper’s president of marketing and trading (FY2025 AIF p.96). The related party to watch is Jiangxi Copper, an 18.48% holder (154,059,171 shares) with a Shareholder Rights Agreement dated 23 July 2024 — a state-linked smelter whose interest as an offtaker need not match a minority holder’s.

4.2 Strategy

The strategy is defensive and explicit: deleverage, restart Cobre Panamá and grow Kansanshi. S3 lifts Kansanshi toward 230–260 kt by 2028; the Taca Taca technical report (February 2026) and the La Granja resource (May 2026) keep the pipeline current without committing capital. Funding has come from streams, a prepayment and asset sales rather than equity — a survive-and-recover plan, not a compounding one.

4.3 Ownership & structure

The material transactions, largest first: the Royal Gold gold stream on Kansanshi (US$1.0 billion upfront, 2025); the sale of the Jellinbah coal stake (January 2025); two Jiangxi copper prepayments of US$500 m each (February 2024 and April 2025; US$592 m outstanding at 30 June 2026); the sales of Cobre Las Cruces (Spain) and Çayeli (Türkiye), completed in Q2 2026. The Franco-Nevada stream on Cobre Panamá’s precious metals carries US$1,569 m of deferred revenue. Minorities: KPMC 17.958% of Cobre Panamá (KPMC a 50:50 First Quantum–KOMIR joint venture), ZCCM 20% of Kansanshi; La Granja is a 55% joint venture with Rio Tinto. No controlling shareholder; 834,206,136 common shares at 30 June 2026, with diluted weighted shares equal.

5. ESG & sustainability

Cobre Panamá is the sector’s starkest licence-to-operate failure: mass protests against the mining contract preceded the 2023 court ruling that closed it. Stewardship since — preservation and safe management, then the stockpile processing — has been orderly. The rolling 12-month lost-time injury frequency rate was 0.03 per 200,000 hours at 31 December 2025 (0.04 in 2024) and 0.06 at 30 June 2026. The 2025 ESG report was published on 14 May 2026; decarbonisation targets, tailings data and community spend are not in the source set.

6. Risks

The register names the risks Section 7 prices: copper in the scenario grid, Panama in Cobre Panamá’s 0.50 row weight, Zambia in the extra point on the discount rate. The leverage is what joins them — a copper fall or a Panama setback lands on the equity through US$5,399 m of net debt.

Table 5. Risk register

Source: risk factors in the First Quantum FY2025 AIF and MD&A ; figures per Sections 2 and 3. Likelihood and impact are the author’s assessment on a 1–5 scale.

Figure 6. Risk matrix — likelihood against impact

Figure data: Table 5; each point prints likelihood × impact.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 23 August 2026, built in US dollars (First Quantum’s reporting currency) with every per-share value converted to Canadian dollars at C$1.00 = US$0.7267 (Bank of Canada daily rate, 21 August 2026) against the C$47.51 TSX close of 21 August 2026. Horizon: spot fair value. Price deck: base copper US$6.00/lb, the representative of the trailing averages of the World Bank monthly copper series (3-month US$6.14, 6-month US$5.98 and 12-month US$5.48/lb, to July 2026), with every grid price from US$4.00 to US$8.00/lb run as a scenario; 9% real after-tax discount rate. Balance sheet 30 June 2026.

First Quantum is valued as a copper producer, sum of the parts, following the How to Value Commodity Stocks guide. Kansanshi and Sentinel in Zambia carry the producing value on their 2026–28 guidance and the group’s guided all-in sustaining cost, each run to the end of its reserve. Cobre Panamá is valued as a restart, not a running mine — its 2026 stockpile rate, a half-rate second year and ~350 kt a year from the third, less US$425 million of restart capital — and then weighted at 0.50 for the political and contractual risk that it does not restart on First Quantum’s terms; that weight is the one place the Panama risk is charged. Taca Taca is carried at the developer anchor per pound of reserve, and La Granja’s measured and indicated copper as a conversion row. Minorities — ZCCM’s 20% of Kansanshi and KPMC’s 17.958% of Cobre Panamá — come off in the bridge at their share of each asset’s value, with the US$5.4 billion of net debt, the restoration provision and the copper prepayment.

Enterprise NAV at the base deck is US$28.3 billion: Kansanshi US$8.1 billion, Sentinel US$5.1 billion, Cobre Panamá US$5.6 billion after its weight (20% of the total), Taca Taca US$5.1 billion and La Granja US$4.4 billion. The bridge takes US$8.6 billion off, for a NAV/share of C$31.72 at 9% — a P/NAV of 1.45× at the share price. The net asset value carries half the weight; forward EBITDA and an FCF-yield support price carry the rest. Every target multiple carries the Section 9 scorecard’s driver line — reserves up, the balance sheet and jurisdiction down — a net × (1 − 0.02) (Table 12).

Two choices set the level. The discount rate is the base-metal 8% plus one point for Zambian fiscal and currency risk; Panama’s risk is not added to it, because it is already the 0.50 weight on Cobre Panamá’s row. And the copper deck sits far above the prices of the past five years, so every target multiple is held at its mid-cycle anchor and only the deck moves across the scenarios — a high deck is not paid for twice. Where the source set is thin — the per-asset reserve split, Cobre Panamá’s full-rate cost, the nickel business — the build carries the group figure or leaves the line out, and the assumptions box bounds each gap.

Table 6. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on (full source register: Table 20)

Source: the First Quantum filings named in each row (full source register: Table 20); copper averages from the World Bank Pink Sheet .

7.1 Method selection

Table 7. Valuation method selection

Source: this analysis — method set, anchors and weights per the producer set of the valuation guide , on the filed inputs in Table 6.

7.2 Net asset value

Table 8. Vehicle map

Source: Q2 2026 interim FS note 17 (KPMC 17.958%) and note 10 (streams); FY2025 AIF corporate structure (ZCCM 20%).

Table 9. Per-asset NPV build — base case (copper US$6.00/lb, 9% real)

Source: this analysis, on the inputs in Table 6; per-asset reserves and Cobre Panamá’s full rate from Section 2 (FY2025 AIF).

Table 10. Per-asset model — base case (copper US$6.00/lb, 9% real)

Source: this analysis — the model rows behind Table 9.

Table 11. NAV build-up and equity bridge (base case — copper US$6.00/lb, 9% real)

Source: Q2 2026 interim FS (30 June 2026) and the FY2025 FS liquidity table; this analysis.

Figure 7. NAV build-up and equity bridge

Figure 8. NAV/share sensitivity — copper price × discount rate

Notes: (1) every cell is recomputed from the asset rows, never scaled; the checksum is the US$5.00/lb column at 9%, C$17.76. (2) The rate rows re-discount every row’s own schedule at 8%, 9% and 11% with the Cobre Panamá weight and the bridge held.

7.3 Relative valuation

Table 12. Target-multiple driver line (one line, applied to every multiple)

Source: this analysis — the scorecard’s driver terms follow in Section 9; each target is its anchor × (1 − 0.02), the driver sum.

Table 13. Forward EBITDA build — the next twelve months at the base price

Source: Q2 2026 and FY2025 MD&A guidance; this analysis.

Table 14. Relative valuation — implied value per share (base case)

Source: this analysis, Tables 11 and 13.

7.4 Further weighted methods

Table 15. FCF-yield support build — the next twelve months at the base price

Source: Q2 2026 MD&A guidance (capital, interest, depreciation); this analysis.

7.5 Cross-checks

The cross-checks — the market-implied deck, the NAV parity deck, the current EV/EBITDA, the Cobre Panamá slip and weight cases — print with the model’s other working tables (Section 10.1); none carries weight.

7.6 Scenarios & fair value

Table 16. Scenarios & fair value — inputs, value per method and the blend by grid price (C$/share)

Source: this analysis — every column recomputed at its own rate, Cobre Panamá weight and bridge; per-share equity floored at zero where the claims exceed the assets (Deep Bear).

Figure 9. Value per share by method and scenario

Conclusion. The blended fair value is C$28.16 per share at the US$6.00/lb base, against C$47.51 — implied −40.7%, a value read of Overvalued (wide band). The range runs from C$0.00 at US$4.00/lb, where the claims exceed the asset value, to C$57.55 at US$8.00/lb; a spread that wide is the leverage, not the model: each US$1.00/lb moves NAV/share by about C$16. The market-implied copper deck is $7.38/lb (US dollars) — the price at which the blend, multiples held, equals the share price — well above every trailing average in the deck. Rating-flip prices: the read moves up to Modestly overvalued at copper of US$6.36/lb, 6% above the base; there is no lower flip, Overvalued being the bottom band. Cobre Panamá is the swing: at weights of 0.40 and 0.60 NAV/share runs from C$30.05 to C$33.39, and a one-year slip in the restart costs about C$0.96. The methods part at the base: the NAV at target (C$31.72 × 0.98) at C$31.09 and the FCF-yield support at C$32.26 sit together, while EV/EBITDA gives C$20.56, because the next twelve months carry Cobre Panamá at its stockpile rate only — the multiple sees today’s company, the NAV a restarted one. On the guided next twelve months the free cash flow after interest is US$1.4 billion, a 4.8% FCF yield at the share price. On its own history the stock traded at a median 6.1× year-end EV/EBITDA over FY2021–25 (5.2–16.5×, the top on idle-Cobre EBITDA), below the 6.9× target; an archived consensus is not in the source set (Table 17, field 11). What would change the read is Panama before copper: a signed agreement that restarts Cobre Panamá with First Quantum’s stake intact moves its weight toward the top of the band — at 0.60 NAV/share is C$33.39 — and copper held above US$7 closes the gap on its own; a failed restart, or copper back near US$5, leaves thin equity under US$5.4 billion of net debt, which is why the bear columns fall so far. The build is conservative where the source set is thin — Cobre Panamá on the group’s cost rather than its own, nickel left out — and the assumptions box bounds both, so the read is more likely to soften than to harden once the per-asset figures are filed.

Table 17. Assumptions box

Source: this analysis.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 18. Near-term catalysts

Source: First Quantum Q2 2026 and FY2025 MD&A (guidance, maturities). Timing is company guidance, not a guarantee.

The Panama framework is the catalyst that matters: it decides whether Cobre Panamá returns at full rate and on what stake. The rest are supporting and largely in the guidance — and, at a market-implied deck above every trailing average, largely in the price.

9. Rating & verdict

First Quantum is scored as a producer (mining), copper, against the peers declared in Section 2.10 — Southern Copper, Freeport-McMoRan, Antofagasta, Ivanhoe Mines and Lundin Mining. Asset quality, cost, reserves, balance sheet and capital allocation carry 15% each; growth, management, jurisdiction and ESG 6.25% each; no dimension is not-applicable.

Table 19. Scorecard rationale

Source: each row cites its evidence in this analysis; peer references are the set in Table 3. Rows by weight, descending.

Weighted average: 0.15 × (3 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 3) + 0.0625 × (4 + 3 + 2 + 3) = 2.25 + 0.75 = 3.00/5 → ★★★, Average.

The two-axis verdict. As of 23 August 2026, quality ★★★ Average and a value read of Overvalued (wide band) — the C$28.16 blend against C$47.51 a share, implied −40.7% — give the verdict Full: a good copper endowment under heavy debt, priced for a Panama restart it has not yet secured. The market-implied copper deck of US$7.38/lb sits above every trailing average in the deck. The target multiples carry the reserves star up and the balance-sheet and jurisdiction stars down, a net × (1 − 0.02).

The bull and bear are the same lever. If Panama signs a framework that keeps First Quantum’s stake, Cobre Panamá’s weight moves to 0.60 and copper near US$7.00/lb takes the blend to C$42.69. If the talks stall and copper drifts to US$5.00/lb, the blend is C$12.77 under US$5,399 m of net debt. What tips it is Panama first, copper second. To rank First Quantum against every copper producer on these nine dimensions, screen the sector on Metal Pilot .

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings: the FY2025 audited financial statements, MD&A, Annual Report and AIF; the Q2 2026 interim financial statements, MD&A and results release (28 July 2026); the FY2022–FY2024 financial statements and MD&A; the Kansanshi NI 43-101 technical report (2024); the 2025 ESG Report — all at first-quantum.com . Market: stockanalysis.com (price), the World Bank Pink Sheet (copper deck). Peers: as Table 3.

Methodology. Filings dated to 30 June 2026; market data at the TSX close on 21 August 2026 (C$47.51 a share, 834,206,136 shares, C$1.00 = US$0.7267, Bank of Canada); nothing dated after 23 August 2026 is used. Deck: copper US$6.00/lb on the US$4.00–8.00 grid, every grid price a scenario; 9% real after-tax. Weights: NAV at target P/NAV 50%, EV/EBITDA 30%, FCF yield 20%; cross-checks at 0%. Peer basis: Table 3. Cadence: each quarterly report and material events. The model’s full output — deck sensitivity, P/NAV map and cross-checks — is claude/valuation-models/first-quantum-fm.out.md.

Re-run log. 23 August 2026: first published; read Modestly overvalued. 11 October 2026: reworked on the same as-of date — deck to copper US$6.00/lb, a sum-of-the-parts NAV with Cobre Panamá weighted 0.50; scorecard unchanged at ★★★ (3.0); blend C$29.10, implied −38.8%, read Overvalued (wide band). 11 October 2026, pre-launch fixes: FX at the Bank of Canada rate of 21 August 2026 (0.7267); KPMC on a look-through basis (91.0% of Cobre Panamá) with its US$1,212 m loan; prepayments US$592 m, restoration US$637 m and current tax at 30 June 2026; each scenario’s EV/EBITDA on its own bridge; per-share equity floored at zero — NAV/share C$32.87 → C$31.72, blend C$29.10 → C$28.16, implied −38.8% → −40.7%; read unchanged, Overvalued (wide band). 11 October 2026, second fix round: covenant to the 2026 refinancing terms; FY2021 EBITDA and net debt from the FY2022 MD&A; board from the paginated AIF; peer scale and lives; the own five-year EV/EBITDA cross-check — no valuation figure moved.

Omitted figures and data gaps. The asset location map is not built. Segment revenue by asset and by commodity is not in the source set, so Figures 2 and 3 split copper output and reserves instead. Not on hand: the Cobre Panamá technical report (SEDAR+) and an archived consensus — each n/d where it would apply; the FY2022 MD&A and the paginated FY2025 AIF were added in the pre-launch fixes.

Table 20. Source register — the filed figures behind the valuation (load-bearing inputs: Table 6)

Source: the First Quantum filings and the market series named in each row; the model’s working tables are in the out file.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 23 August 2026; prices, multiples and the valuation read move, and First Quantum’s value is unusually sensitive to the Cobre Panamá outcome. Reserve, resource and forecast figures are estimates; the valuation is an author-built model. This report was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed against the filings; verify every figure before acting on it. The author holds no position in First Quantum.