Permian Resources (PR) — Stock Analysis 2026 [3.5]

Analysis as of 7 August 2026. Price deck: base WTI US$80/bbl — the representative trailing average on the fixed US$60–100 grid — with every grid price run as a scenario (deep bear US$60, US$70, base US$80, US$90, deep bull US$100), Henry Hub held at US$3.00/MMBtu, and the SEC’s 2025 reserve prices as a 0% cross-check — no spot price. Shares at US$20.15 (NYSE close, 7 August 2026); the market-implied deck is ~US$87.09/bbl WTI. Refreshed on each annual report and each quarterly report. Rating: ★★★½ Solid / Modestly overvalued (wide band).

Permian Resources is an E&P producer in the oil and gas sector: an operator that produced 392,633 boe/d in 2025, all of it from the Delaware Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, on 1,116.3 mmboe of SEC proved reserves. The thesis in one line: a low-cost, low-debt Delaware driller whose cash flow is worth about the share price and whose proved book is worth well under half of it. It is worth a look now because the second-quarter results of 5 August revised 2026 guidance to 400,000–430,000 boe/d while gas at Waha averaged below zero, and the December 2025 reorganisation left a single class of shares. To screen Permian Resources against every North American upstream name on the same fields, go to Metal Pilot’s upstream oil & gas stock screener.

1. Snapshot & thesis

Figure 1. Permian Resources in numbers, as of 7 August 2026

Figure data: Table 1, this analysis.

Table 1. Permian Resources in numbers

Source: Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR — 10-K 2025 (production, reserves, unit costs, revenue), 10-Q Q2 2026 (shares, production), Q2 2026 results release (net debt, EBITDAX); Yahoo Finance PR history, 7 Aug 2026; NAV, blend and read from Section 7.

Permian Resources Corporation (NYSE: PR), headquartered in Midland, Texas, develops and produces oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas in the Delaware Basin, the western half of the Permian. At 31 December 2025 it held 481,752 net acres and operated 3,473 gross (2,923 net) productive wells at an average working interest of about 84%. It reports three streams — oil, NGLs and gas — under US GAAP in US dollars, and Netherland, Sewell & Associates estimates all of its proved reserves under SEC rules. Its proved reserves are 42.9% oil, 26.5% NGLs and 30.6% gas on a boe basis, and in 2025 it turned US$5,065.2 m of oil and gas sales into US$1,641.6 m of free cash flow.

Thesis in brief. The bull case: an LOE of US$5.26/boe, net debt of 0.5× EBITDAX and US$3.18 a share of forward free cash flow at US$80 WTI — a 15.8% yield. The bear case: the proved book supports only US$8.79 a share, its life is 7.8 years, and the share price assumes a deck above the base. What tips it is WTI against the ~US$87.09 the price implies: below ~US$69.69 the read turns Overvalued, above ~US$81.29 Fairly valued.

How to read this analysis: the statcards and Section 9 carry the verdict; Sections 2–7 carry the evidence, Section 7 the valuation.

2. Assets & operations

Permian Resources sells one commodity complex from one basin, so the oil price sets the result; how crude is priced and traded is covered in Oil — A Complete Market Guide. This section covers the company.

2.1 Portfolio overview

Table 2. Asset base, FY2025

Source: Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR — 10-K 2025, Item 2 (productive wells, acreage, p.10–12) and MD&A (p.45–46); 10-Q Q2 2026, MD&A recent developments (p.30).

The concentration is total: one basin carries all production, all reserves and all value. The filings report the position as one field, with no split by state or area, so the asset-level read below is the company-level read. The July 2026 bolt-on adds acreage, not booked reserves, and its price is not disclosed. Three things therefore decide the result: the realised oil price, the cost of each well, and the gas price at Waha, the West Texas hub where Delaware gas is sold.

2.2 Revenue split

Figure 2. FY2025 revenue by product

Figure data: 10-K 2025, MD&A results of operations (p.45) — oil US$4,251.2 m, NGLs US$658.5 m, gas US$131.7 m, purchased gas US$23.8 m.

Figure 3. Enterprise NAV by asset tranche, base case

Figure data: Table 15 in Section 7 — US$9,473.1 m and US$1,993.0 m.

Crude is 46.3% of the barrels but 83.9% of the sales. Gas is 28.7% of the barrels and 2.6% of the sales: it realised US$0.53/mcf in 2025, against US$64.06/bbl for oil, because Delaware gas prices at Waha, where pipeline capacity out of the basin is short. NGLs, at US$18.41/bbl, earn the rest. On a boe basis gas earned US$3.18 in 2025 against US$64.06 for a barrel of oil; in the second quarter of 2026 it earned less than nothing, US$(2.40)/mcf, while oil realised US$97.81/bbl.

2.3 Delaware Basin

The position covers 652,612 gross (481,752 net) acres: 392,072 net developed and 89,680 net undeveloped. Production rose 14.3% in 2025 to 392,633 boe/d, 181,819 bbl/d of it oil, and ran at 376,409 boe/d in the second quarter of 2026 as gas output fell 17% on Waha curtailment while oil rose 12.2% to 198,071 bbl/d. Guidance implies 415,000 boe/d at the midpoint for 2026, 5.7% above 2025, with oil up 9.4% to 199,000 bbl/d.

Table 3. Production, FY2022 – 2026 guidance

Source: Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR — 10-K 2025 (p.45), 10-K 2024 (p.51), 10-K 2023 (p.50), 10-Q Q2 2026 (p.31, p.35), Q2 2026 results release (p.7).

Table 4. Proved reserves by category, 31 December 2025 (SEC, NSAI)

Source: Permian Resources 10-K 2025 on SEC EDGAR, Item 2 summary of reserves (p.10) and reserve quantities (p.95); gas at 6 mcf = 1 boe.

Proved reserves rose from 1,027.0 mmboe to 1,116.3 mmboe in 2025. Extensions added 228.6 mmboe, purchases 40.9 mmboe and revisions took 36.9 mmboe against 143.3 mmboe produced — 162% replacement, 134% without the purchases. The pre-tax PV-10 is US$9,439.3 m and the after-tax Standardized Measure US$8,365.5 m, net of US$4,253.8 m of future development cost. The undeveloped tranche is oilier — 47.1% oil against 41.2% in developed reserves — so its value moves most with WTI in Section 7. The 2026 program brings about 250 gross wells to sales at above 80% working interest on laterals of about 11,000 feet. The bolt-on closed on 31 July 2026 added about 20,500 net leasehold and 950 net royalty acres. Drilling locations, type curves and well costs are not in the filings read, so the inventory beyond the proved book is unquantified. The one asset risk is gas takeaway: Waha averaged US$(3.14)/MMBtu in the second quarter and Permian Resources realised US$(2.40)/mcf.

2.4 Production, reserves & costs

Figure 4. Production, FY2022 – 2026 guidance

Figure data: Table 3; the FY2022–FY2024 steps include the September 2022 Centennial–Colgate combination and later acquisitions.

Table 5. Unit costs and realised prices

Source: Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR — 10-K 2025, Item 2 (p.12) and MD&A (p.45–46); 10-Q Q2 2026 (p.31); Q2 2026 results release (p.2, p.7).

Revenue per boe was US$35.34 in 2025 and cash costs — LOE, production taxes, transport and G&A — US$10.68, leaving a cash margin of US$24.67/boe, 69.8%. The cost lines moved by cents while the realised oil price fell 14.4%, which is why 14.3% more volume left revenue up only 1.3%. DD&A of US$14.18/boe against LOE of US$5.26 shows where the cost sits: in drilling the wells, not in running them. The second quarter of 2026 shows the same pattern at a higher price: controllable cash costs of US$7.49/boe against realised oil of US$97.81/bbl. Proved life is 7.8 years at the 2025 rate, the short span of a proved-only shale book.

2.5 Peer positioning

The peer set is three US oil-weighted Permian producers on their FY2025 10-Ks: Matador Resources (NYSE: MTDR), Diamondback Energy (Nasdaq: FANG) and EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG); none is in a pending deal. Quality metrics only — no multiples.

Table 6. Peer scale and reserve metrics, FY2025

Source: SEC EDGAR full-text search — Permian Resources 10-K 2025 (p.10–12, p.45); Matador 10-K 2025, Item 2 (p.14, p.18). Diamondback’s and EOG’s 10-K figures were not located in the renderings on file; life = proved reserves ÷ FY2025 production.

Permian Resources produces 1.9 times Matador’s volume from 1.7 times its proved reserves, so its proved life is a year shorter; Matador’s own read is in the Matador Resources analysis. Against Diamondback and EOG the files read hold no figures, so scale is the only filed comparison. On these figures the case against the peers is scale, not reserve life.

3. Financials & balance sheet

Oil and gas sales held at US$5,065.2 m in 2025, up 1.3%, as volume growth met a lower oil price. Operating cash flow rose to US$3,607.5 m, 3.3× net income of US$1,098.9 m: DD&A of US$2,032.5 m and US$285.4 m of deferred tax sit between them, and a US$270.1 m loss on refinancing cut earnings without touching cash. Capital is filed as one drilling-and-development line, US$1,965.9 m, with no sustaining and growth split. The metrics are defined in the commodity financial metrics guide.

Table 7. Five-year financial summary (US$ m unless stated)

Source: Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR — 10-K 2025 (p.60–62, p.86) for FY2023–FY2025, 10-K 2023 (p.50, p.70–73, p.100–101) for FY2021–FY2022, 10-K 2024 (p.49). Per-share rows are Class A only: Class C shares sat outside EPS until the December 2025 reorganisation. FY2020 sales and FY2021 debt are not in the files read; FY2022 DPS is the first quarterly dividend; FY2023 DPS is base plus variable.

Figure 5. Free cash flow, FY2021–FY2025

Figure data: Table 7.

Free cash flow rose about eightfold from 2021 to 2025 as production grew through the 2022 combination and later deals. The first half of 2026 brought operating cash flow of US$2,320.8 m against US$987.7 m of capital, and second-quarter net income of US$792.5 m, US$0.93 a diluted share, as oil realised US$97.81/bbl.

The cost deck. 2026 guidance sets LOE at ~US$5.45, transport at ~US$1.40 and cash G&A at ~US$0.80 per boe; production and ad valorem taxes are price-linked at 6.5–8.5% of revenue (7.7% in 2025). Cash tax is deferred: 2025 current tax was a US$1.2 m benefit, loss carryforwards held US$266.3 m of tax value at the year-end, and the deferred tax liability grew to US$1,258.5 m by 30 June 2026. The inflation basis of the guidance is not stated.

Table 8. Debt and liquidity, 30 June 2026 (US$ m)

Source: Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR — 10-Q Q2 2026, balance sheet (p.7), long-term debt note (p.16), liquidity (p.40); Q2 2026 results release, net debt (p.14).

Net debt fell from US$3,391.9 m at the 2025 year-end to US$2,893.3 m. Against 2025’s US$3,495.2 m of EBIT plus DD&A, earned at about US$65 WTI, it is 0.83×. The leverage covenant is defined but its level is not printed.

Table 9. Hedge book open at 30 June 2026

Source: Permian Resources 10-Q Q2 2026 on SEC EDGAR, derivative instruments note (p.20–21).

The policy is partial cover: swaps fix 35% of second-quarter oil volume for the third quarter, below the US$80 base, and 2027 oil is close to unhedged. Capital returns took US$447.7 m of dividends and US$73.7 m of buybacks in 2025, 32% of free cash flow; the quarterly dividend is US$0.16 (3.2% at US$20.15), and the first half of 2026 paid US$269.1 m with no buybacks.

4. Management, strategy & structure

4.1 Management & governance

Co-Chief Executive Officers William M. Hickey III and James H. Walter run the company, with Guy M. Oliphint as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Steven D. Gray as Chairman (10-K 2025 signatures). A January 2026 8-K reported a change concerning director Robert J. Anderson. Board size, independence, the committee list, related parties and insider holdings sit in the 2026 proxy, which is not in the files read.

4.2 Strategy

The frame is a single-basin development program funded from cash flow, topped up by acquisitions. 2026 cash capital is guided at US$1,900–2,000 m for about 250 gross wells. Acquisitions of oil and gas properties cost US$234.3 m in 2023, US$1,047.1 m in 2024 and US$1,070.5 m in 2025, and US$534.3 m in the first half of 2026 before the July bolt-on. A share repurchase program of indefinite term is authorised; it bought nothing in the first half of 2026.

4.3 Ownership & structure

Permian Resources took its present form in the September 2022 combination of Centennial Resource Development and Colgate Energy, as an Up-C: public Class A shares beside Class C shares paired with operating-company units. The reorganisation announced on 22 December 2025 retired the 84,378,125 Class C shares and the non-controlling interest, US$1,255.6 m at the year-end. At 30 June 2026, 837,481,545 Class A shares were outstanding (855.243 m diluted in Q2) and no convertible notes remained: the 3.25% notes due 2028 were redeemed in September 2025. Diluted Class A shares grew from 310.2 m in 2021, mainly through share-funded acquisitions.

5. ESG & sustainability

The 10-K 2025 describes environmental regulation but prints no emissions, flaring, water or safety figure, and the 2025 sustainability report is not in the files read. The one filed operating signal is gas handling: second-quarter 2026 gas output fell 17% as Waha prices turned negative, which curtails gas rather than selling it below cost. The ESG score is held below the median until figures are read. Flaring and methane intensity, the figures that matter most for a Delaware producer with constrained gas takeaway, are the first to read when the report is added.

6. Risks

Table 10. Risk register

Source: Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR — 10-K 2025, 10-Q Q2 2026; scenario values from Section 7. Likelihood and impact are this analysis’s assessment.

Figure 6. Risk matrix

Figure data: Table 10.

Section 7 prices three of these: the oil deck in every scenario, gas at its 2025 discount, and the undeveloped-reserves slip. Oil dominates: between US$70 and US$90 the blend moves from US$12.59 to US$22.88. Waha is the live risk but small in value, with gas at 2.6% of sales. Single-basin concentration is permanent and shared by every Delaware pure-play; it would bite through a regional event, such as a pipeline outage or a state rule, not through the oil price. Both show first in the quarterly realised gas price and the production line.

7. Valuation

Valuation as of 7 August 2026, in US dollars. Horizon: spot fair value. Oil deck: WTI US$60, 70, 80, 90 and 100/bbl, base US$80/bbl — the trailing averages of the daily WTI Cushing price (3-month US$86.57, 6-month US$87.60, 12-month US$74.68, EIA, to 7 August 2026) snapped to the grid, leaning low because the two shorter windows sit on the 2026 spike to a US$114.58 daily high in April. Second deck: Henry Hub US$3.00/MMBtu (3-month US$2.99, 6-month US$3.00, 12-month US$3.56, EIA, to 7 August 2026), held in every scenario; at the Waha-driven discount Permian Resources realised in 2025, gas carries 0.1% of enterprise NAV. NGL prices move with crude. Discount rate 10% real after-tax. Share basis 855.243 m fully diluted (837.5 m Class A shares outstanding at 30 June 2026; no Class C after the December 2025 reorganisation). Price US$20.15, the NYSE close on 7 August 2026.

Permian Resources is valued as an oil-weighted exploration and production company with the method set of the commodity stock valuation guide: a net asset value on its proved reserves at the target P/NAV (50%), a forward EV/EBITDA (30%) and a forward P/CF (20%). The base WTI price sits 0.5% above the US$79.58 five-year average (EIA daily, October 2021 to September 2026), so both the deck and the target multiples move across the scenarios.

Three choices shape the numbers. First, Permian Resources files proved reserves only, estimated by Netherland, Sewell & Associates at the SEC’s 2025 prices of US$65.34/bbl and US$3.39/MMBtu, and the filings do not split the PV-10 by category. The filed Standardized Measure is therefore split on its own lines — future inflows by each category’s oil, NGL and gas volumes, production costs by barrel of oil equivalent, all US$4,253.8 m of future development cost to the undeveloped reserves — and each category is re-priced to this deck and taxed on the Standardized Measure’s own schedule, whose income tax is 11.4% of PV-10. The net asset value carries no unbooked inventory, which is why the two cash-flow methods hold half the weight. Second, the forward year is the revised 2026 guidance midpoint of 415,000 Boe/d, 199,000 Bbl/d of it oil, because 2027 guidance is not yet published; oil is realised at 98.0% of WTI and NGLs at 28.2%, as in 2025, and costs are the guided unit costs. Third, gas is realised at the 2025 discount of US$2.99/Mcf below Henry Hub, so the second deck barely moves the value — and the second quarter of 2026, with Waha below zero, realised less.

Table 11. Load-bearing inputs — the filed figures the valuation moves on

Source: the filings named in each row; the full source register is Table 25 in Section 10.1. Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR.

8. Near-term catalysts (1–3 years)

Table 23. Near-term catalysts

Source: Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR — 10-Q Q2 2026 (p.20–21, p.30), Q2 2026 results release (p.7).

The reserve report matters most: it decides how much of the 2026 program the proved book, and so the net asset value, carries. The hedge roll-off cuts both ways: it removes swaps that sit US$11–13 below the base deck, and the floor they give in a weaker market.

9. Rating & verdict

Figure 10. Scorecard by dimension, 7 August 2026

Figure data: Table 24. Each spoke prints its stars and weight; the dashed ring is the weighted composite, 3.45/5.

Table 24. The Metal Pilot Company Scorecard — Permian Resources

Σ(weight × stars) = 0.15 × (4 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 3) + 0.0625 × (3 + 3 + 4 + 2) = 2.70 + 0.75 = 3.45/5 → ★★★½ Solid.

Source: this analysis; every score cites its home section. Scored as an E&P producer — all nine dimensions apply, Dimension 3 on proved life, Dimension 2 on cash margin — against the peer set in §2.5; the five dominant dimensions at 15%, the other four at 6.25%. Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR.

The two-axis verdict (7 August 2026). ★★★½ Solid × Modestly overvalued (wide band) — Full: at US$20.15 the blend of US$17.69 implies −12.2%, and the price assumes ~US$87.09/bbl WTI (the market-implied deck), above the US$80 base. The target multiples carry Dimensions 1, 2 and 5 (+0.03 each) and Dimension 8 (+0.01), a net +0.10. This is an analytical read, not an instruction. The composite falls from the August post’s 4.1 because each star is now scored on the filed figures, and the ESG score drops for want of any. Dimensions 2 and 5 are where Permian Resources leads; Dimensions 3 and 9 are where the files read hold it back — a proved life under eight years and no ESG figure.

The bull case is the cash flow: at US$90 WTI the blend is US$22.88, and forward free cash flow is a 15.8% yield at the base. The bear case is the proved book: NAV is US$8.79 a share, and at US$60 the blend falls to US$8.23. WTI above ~US$81.29 tips the read to Fairly valued; below ~US$69.69 it turns Overvalued. To rank Permian Resources against US oil producers on these dimensions, screen the sector on Metal Pilot’s upstream oil & gas stock screener.

10. Sources, methodology & disclaimer

10.1 Sources, methodology & data vintage

Company filings. Permian Resources’ filings on SEC EDGAR: the 10-Ks for 2025, 2024 and 2023, the 10-Qs for Q3 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, the FY2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 results releases, the reorganisation release (22 December 2025) and the January 2026 board 8-K; Matador’s 10-K 2025 for the peer figures.

Market data. NYSE closes from Yahoo Finance; WTI Cushing and Henry Hub from the EIA — to the 7 August 2026 close.

Methodology. The valuation runs a base WTI deck of US$80/bbl on the fixed US$60–100 grid, Henry Hub held at US$3.00/MMBtu, a 10% real after-tax rate and weights of 50% NAV, 30% EV/EBITDA and 20% P/CF. The scorecard uses the E&P weights against the three peers in §2.5. Refreshed on each annual report and each quarterly report. The model’s out file, claude/valuation-models/permian-resources-pr.out.md, holds the deck sensitivity, the P/NAV map, the cross-checks and the stage-risk, slip and Henry Hub cases.

Re-run log. 21 October 2026: rebuilt from the 7 August 2026 post (US$20.31; ★★★★ Solid at 4.1, Modestly undervalued on a US$70 deck) as a standalone valuation on filed figures — price US$20.15, NAV/share US$8.79, blend US$17.69, implied −12.2%, Modestly overvalued (wide band); composite 4.1 → 3.45, ★★★½ Solid. The peer-multiples table and the data-provider figures are gone, and every star is re-scored on the filings. 21 October 2026, fix round: realisation operands printed at model precision, peer figures moved out of Section 7, FY2022 oil, FY2021–FY2022 EBIT and DD&A, the FY2022 dividend and the 2022–2024 year-end share counts added from the filings, and own EV/EBITDA printed for year-ends 2022–2024; NAV/share US$8.79, blend US$17.69, −12.2% and the read unchanged.

Omitted figures and data gaps. The asset map is not built; revenue by area is not disclosed, so Figure 3 splits the NAV by tranche, and the reserves-by-asset figure is skipped because there is one operating asset. Not in the files read (n/d): the reserve auditor’s letter (the PV-10 split by category), the 2026 proxy (board, committees, holders, related parties), the 2025 sustainability report (ESG figures), the investor presentation (locations, type curve, well cost, area split), the 10-K 2022 (2021 debt), Diamondback’s and EOG’s 10-K figures, the bolt-on’s price and analyst consensus.

The load-bearing inputs (Table 11) open Section 7; the full source register below closes this section.

Table 25. Full source register for the valuation

Source: the filings and market series named in each row. Permian Resources filings on SEC EDGAR.

10.2 Disclaimer & disclosure

This analysis is for information only and is not investment advice; do your own research or consult a licensed advisor. It is a point-in-time snapshot as of 7 August 2026: the share price, the multiples and the valuation read move, and reserves are SEC proved estimates on trailing prices that do not represent market value. The scorecard and the two-axis verdict are an analytical read of quality and price, not a buy or sell instruction. This report was prepared with AI assistance (Claude Opus 5.5) from the filings cited, under this blog’s company-analysis template, and reviewed before publication.